#8 Ehire Adrianza, SS. BD: 8/21/1989. 6'0", 170 lbs. B-S, T-R.
A+: .256/.333/.348, 22 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 33 SB, 15 CS.
Much like Gary Brown and Francisco Peguero, Adrianza and Brandon Crawford make for an interesting prospect smackdown. I went back and forth on Crawford and Adrianza many times finally settling on Adrianza as the better prospect, by a nose. Crawford is closer to the majors, but is older and is running out of development time. I also think Adrianza has a more projectable body with plenty of room for another 15-20 lbs on his frame.
Adrianza is already a superb defensive shortstop. He went something like the last 6 weeks of the season without committing an error and has always had great range. The question is whether he will hit. He had a rough month of July in which he hit just .202 which dragged his average down. He came back to post a .260 in August finishing with a .314 over his last 10 games. He hasn't shown much power so far, but that's where I think his physical projectability will help out. I really like the plate discipline he's shown which should hold him in good stead as his power develops.
I would think the next stop is Richmond which will challenge his hitting skills even more. It may be 2-3 years before we see him in SF and a whole lot can happen between now and then, but I expect Ehire Adrianza to have a fine MLB career as a shortstop in one place or another.
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Try as I might, I just can't work up any enthusiasm for Adrianza's prospects. Of course, I hope he's Chris Speier and the Uribes all rolled into one. But I just don't see his hitting progressing enough.
ReplyDeleteThe hitting floor is so incredibly low for plus-fielding SS that I think Ehire has a really good chance of making it as a big leaguer.
ReplyDeleteConsider this: Cody Ransom just signed a contract. It will be the 15th year he's played in the majors. Cody. Ransom. 15. Years.
The absolute lack of power (.090 ISO in SJ last season) combined with his BB% and K% trending in the wrong direction over the last three seasons really concerns me.
ReplyDeletePlus after watching him in SJ a few times I wasn’t all that impressed with his D either. I know, sample size and all, but I was expecting to be wowed and left with a distinct “meh” feeling.
Full disclosure: I’m more of a Crawford fan. The BB% is trending in the right direction and he has enough power (.135 ISO in AA last season) to keep teams honest. Visually, he’s looked better with the glove to me as well.
Hopefully one of them pans out. Tejada doesn’t exactly inspire confidence on the Big Team.
You know, I think it's a real close call between Crawford and Adrianza. Neither may ever make it in the majors or they both might. I think you have to look at Adrianza's age and body type and think of him as an unfinished product. My fear is that Crawford is what he is. He is a good enough fielder that he might make it in spite of inconsistent hitting, though.
ReplyDeleteI like Adrianza more as well. Most reports I have seen says that his defense is major league ready, and between a player who has good plate discipline, as Adrianza does, and one who strikes out a lot in the minors, as Crawford does, I am going to go for the one who handles the bat better.
ReplyDeleteNot that I'm sure that Ehire will make the majors, let alone be a starter. But mitigating factors is that at 20 YO, he was basically 3 years younger than the pitchers there, meaning at minimum 3 years of experience more than Ehire. Plus I would guess that his amateur play was against a lower level of competition as most US kids faced in Little League.
Someone noted his trend downward but that is not really a proper analysis. His 2008 stats is just 18 games. And the years before, he was playing guys closer in age and experience and competition levels.
All you really got is two years to compare, 2009 and 2010. Yes, his strikeouts increased. Unfortunately, I don't have his splits, but research showed a couple of years ago that San Jose's park has a bad backdrop that causes hitters to strike out a lot there, so that increase might all be park related. And 20%, while not good, is not that bad either. However, Crawford's 27% is pretty bad.
Just as importantly, he kept his walk rate above average both years, roughly 1% higher than the roughly 8% league rates. Hitters who can keep their walk rate as a high percentage of their strikeouts are usually pretty good hitters, and he did it against pitchers much older and experienced than he was. He should get better as he catches up in age and experience against the competition.
On top of that, he improved his extra-base hit percentage from 20.0% in 2009 to 26.3% in 2010, a pretty good leap there, though perhaps that was at least partly due to the Cal League being more of a hitters league while the Sally is more of a pitchers. Really wish Minor League Splits didn't shut down... Could really use it right now...
Plus, he's only 21 in 2011, still could be developing and gaining weight, as DrB noted. Look at other 20 YO who roughly did as poorly as Adrianza. In 2008, Trayvon Robinson (20YO) had .713 OPS, hit in mid .800's since. In 2006, Carlos Triunfel (17YO) had .689, and while he has not progressed offensively, BA had him in their Top 100 ranks the past two seasons. In 2005, Asdrubal Cabrera (19YO), hit .743, made majors as starter, though I admit he's younger and hit better, but did strikeout out more often.
He has a lot of positives that with development, he can be much better. Crawford has positives, but his one big negative - strikeouts - is one that has made the difference between career minor leaguers and major leaguers. And most never figure that one out.
Oh, finally think of a good analogy. It is like that joke about the difference between being fat and being ugly, the fat can always lose weight. Adrianza can always gain weight, learn the mechanics of a upper cut swing for more power, as that is his most glaring problem right now. Crawford needs to figure out how not to strike out so much, and there is no easy fix for that, short of lasix, perhaps, to make him far-sighted (if that can even be done) like Ted Williams and others were, as they can see the ball better out of the pitcher's hands and determine what type of pitch it is, and adjust accordingly.
ReplyDeleteOh, forgot to add that Adrianza has the speed to add value by stealing bases, and with a good eye and plate discipline, should be able to get on base at an average to above clip in majors if he can keep that as he rises. He has been around league average in OBP the past two seasons, and if he can keep that up as he rises, his power problems won't be as glaring if he were leading off, where he won't get many opportunities to drive in runs anyway, but his speed and SB would allow him to score many runs.
ReplyDeleteOGC, the fat/ugly analogy is... interesting... but, ultimately, I think, accurate. Adrianza's glaring weakness with the bat (lack of power) has a reasonable, projectable solution (his body filling out as he gets older from his current 6'1", 155 lb frame), whereas Crawford's weakness with the bat (lack of contact skills) has a much, much more remote solution (suddenly seeing the ball and hitting better). Neither is particularly likely, but Adrianza's likely scenario for improving is more likely.
ReplyDelete