Andrew Susac, C. DOB: 3/22/1990. 6'2", 210 lbs. B-R, T-R.
High A: .244/.351/.380, 9 HR, 12.9 BB%, 23.5 K%.
Andrew Susac is another 2011 draftee who the Giants gave an aggressive assignment for his first professional experience. A tidbit of information we found out after the Giants drafted Buster Posey is that on college ball, pitches are called by the coaches from the dugout, while in the pros, it is the catcher's duty to call each pitch. That is a huge mental jump right there. Add in the aggressive placement and Susac had his work cut out for him in 2012.
At first glance, you might not be impressed with his batting line, but factor in the level of play, the mental adjustment and then look at his OBP/BB% and there is plenty of reason for optimism. He also finished the season strong hitting .333 in August and .378 over his last 10 games. I turn, once again, to Fred Stanley's comments to Joe Ritzo at sjgiants.com:
"....Susac was trying to do two things. He was trying to learn how to catch at the professional level with pretty good arms that were throwing out there. Plus, learning the league, remembering which hitters can do what and how we can get this guy out. Knowing what a pitcher's best stuff is. His role was harder than anybody's. Not only was he learning how to hit, but he was also learning how to catch. That's a very tough task. I think a lot of people don't realize how difficult it was to do what Posey did. What Buster did was off the radar. For a catcher to move as fast as he did and be as good as he was on both sides of the ball, offensively and defensively. He's one of a kind."
I saw Susac play several games. I can't say anything I saw really stood out. I seem to recall a couple of nice throws to 2B. The one big impression was an apparent teachable moment. I'm not sure exactly what happened, but it was something on defense. It was a complex play involving several throws and several baserunners and it just looked a bit funky. When he got back to the dugout, Andy Skeels spoke with him and a couple other players for a couple of minutes. As they broke up, Steve Kline called Susac back and Skeels continued to have a prolonged, animated discussion that went on seemingly forever, although it was probably no more than 2-3 minutes. My impression was not that there was any problem between them, but rather that Skeels was taking advantage of a game situation to teach his butt off and make a point that would not be forgotten.
As for where Susac will be assigned next spring, Stanley had some very interesting comments on that, shedding some light on the Giants decision-making process:
"We'll evaluate in spring training. He'll get a chance to impress the ones that need to be impressed.. Brian Sabean will make that final decision about what's best for him. Whether they think it's best for him to repeat- Pablo Sandoval did it, so that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world and would give him a chance to play everyday. He could make the double-A team too. It depends on what Dick Tidrow and Brian Sabean want to do.
Stanley went on to say that players drafted out of major conferences like the SEC and Pac-12 are candidates for aggressive placement due to the high level of competition in those conferences.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Sunday, December 30, 2012
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #12: Ricky Oropesa
Ricky Oropesa, 1B. DOB: 12/15/1989. 6'3", 225 lbs. B-L, T-R.
High A: .263/.338/.425, 30 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 10.1% BB, 25.7% K.
AFL: .234/.373/.362, 2 HR, 18.6% BB, 27.1% K.
First the obligatory disclosure. I have never claimed to be in unbiased reporter in any of my writings, but I work with Ricky's mom and have followed his career closely since he was a junior in HS, so I am particularly biased in regards to him. You can take my opinions for what they are worth and certainly have a right to hold and express your own, in a constructive way, of course.
Brian Sabean has been vocal in the last few years that he does not think the Giants will be able to convince power hitters to come to SF as free agents, so they will have to draft and develop their own. Since the arrival of John Barr as scouting director, the Giants have followed a now familiar pattern of drafting up-the-middle players in round 1 and then look for at least one power hitter in the next 2-3 rounds. The result has been a modest infusion of prospects with potential to develop into MLB power hitters, but who also have some flaws that could derail those efforts. It appears the hope is by adding 1-2 per draft, 1 or 2 will eventually make it.
Ricky Oropesa may be the most promising of these players currently in the Giants system. He has a pedigree, coming out of a Pac 10 program, a conference that tends to be known more for it's pitching and plays at a very high level. In addition to his power, Ricky has also shown solid plate discipline and the ability to take walks. The Giants challenged him by assigning him to high A San Jose for his first professional experience and he responded with a successful season finishing just behind the more experienced Adam Duvall in RBI's with 99. The Giants rewarded him with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League, a league generally reserved for top prospects with AA and AAA experience. Again, he hit a couple of HR's and drew a lot of walks.
A lot of people have focused on a relatively low BA and his strikeout rate and consigned his 2012 season to the failure bin. I beg to differ for the following reasons:
1. As I already mentioned, high A ball is an aggressive placement for even a college draftee's first professional experience.
2. While the Cal League is a hitters league overall, San Jose is no better than neutral and specifically suppresses LH power due to what I have read is a prevailing headwind from RF.
3. Selective hitters are going to have higher strikeout rates precisely because they go deeper into counts and you can't get to strike 3 without getting to strike 2 first! It's really a very simple mathematical concept that the "OBP is Everything" crowd generally does not comprehend. They can't have it both ways. If they want higher walk rates, they have to be willing to accept the higher K rates that go along with it. The same mathematical dynamic also suppresses BA's as the walks do nothing to help your BA but the K's make it harder due to the necessity of generating a higher BABIP. OK, maybe if you are more selective, you will hit better pitches and have a higher BABIP, but it seldom works out that way. Also, it's mighty tough to get a good pitch to hit with 2 strikes.
Having said all that, I do think Ricky may need to become a bit less selective at the plate in order to cut down on a pretty steep K rate, but a change in approach carries risks too and he might be better off being a 3 true outcomes guy. But, it doesn't really matter what I think, now, does it? Here's some quotes from Fred Stanley in his recent interview with Joe Ritzo on sjgiants.com:
"Ricky is a big strong kid. He was starting to figure out how they were pitching him. He had a pretty solid year. I think if you asked him, he'll tell you he'd like to cut down on his strikouts a little bit. But when you're a strong guy and have the opportunity to hit 30 home runs, you're going to strikeout some. He learned a little bit about himself this year."
"Oropesa is learning to play first base. There are a lot of things going on with your footwork around the bag. J.T. Snow, Will Clark, Russ Morman have been working with him. He's received a lot of instruction. Every time he came out on the field during (fall) instructional league, he had an assignment on what we were working on for that day....That would have been tough during the regular season because you're playing 150 games and travelling. You don't want to wear everyone out. Instructional league was a time where we really bore down on him and he made really good progress."
AA is Ricky's probable assignment for 2013. It will be a very big challenge, especially in those first 1-2 months when the weather is still cold and he faces a lot of pitchers with way more professional experience. What he has to do, in my mind, is keep his head above water and show improvement. He's not young for his level but he's not old either. If he simply keeps his head above water, he has time to build on that in 2014. Hopefully he does a lot better than that!
High A: .263/.338/.425, 30 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 10.1% BB, 25.7% K.
AFL: .234/.373/.362, 2 HR, 18.6% BB, 27.1% K.
First the obligatory disclosure. I have never claimed to be in unbiased reporter in any of my writings, but I work with Ricky's mom and have followed his career closely since he was a junior in HS, so I am particularly biased in regards to him. You can take my opinions for what they are worth and certainly have a right to hold and express your own, in a constructive way, of course.
Brian Sabean has been vocal in the last few years that he does not think the Giants will be able to convince power hitters to come to SF as free agents, so they will have to draft and develop their own. Since the arrival of John Barr as scouting director, the Giants have followed a now familiar pattern of drafting up-the-middle players in round 1 and then look for at least one power hitter in the next 2-3 rounds. The result has been a modest infusion of prospects with potential to develop into MLB power hitters, but who also have some flaws that could derail those efforts. It appears the hope is by adding 1-2 per draft, 1 or 2 will eventually make it.
Ricky Oropesa may be the most promising of these players currently in the Giants system. He has a pedigree, coming out of a Pac 10 program, a conference that tends to be known more for it's pitching and plays at a very high level. In addition to his power, Ricky has also shown solid plate discipline and the ability to take walks. The Giants challenged him by assigning him to high A San Jose for his first professional experience and he responded with a successful season finishing just behind the more experienced Adam Duvall in RBI's with 99. The Giants rewarded him with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League, a league generally reserved for top prospects with AA and AAA experience. Again, he hit a couple of HR's and drew a lot of walks.
A lot of people have focused on a relatively low BA and his strikeout rate and consigned his 2012 season to the failure bin. I beg to differ for the following reasons:
1. As I already mentioned, high A ball is an aggressive placement for even a college draftee's first professional experience.
2. While the Cal League is a hitters league overall, San Jose is no better than neutral and specifically suppresses LH power due to what I have read is a prevailing headwind from RF.
3. Selective hitters are going to have higher strikeout rates precisely because they go deeper into counts and you can't get to strike 3 without getting to strike 2 first! It's really a very simple mathematical concept that the "OBP is Everything" crowd generally does not comprehend. They can't have it both ways. If they want higher walk rates, they have to be willing to accept the higher K rates that go along with it. The same mathematical dynamic also suppresses BA's as the walks do nothing to help your BA but the K's make it harder due to the necessity of generating a higher BABIP. OK, maybe if you are more selective, you will hit better pitches and have a higher BABIP, but it seldom works out that way. Also, it's mighty tough to get a good pitch to hit with 2 strikes.
Having said all that, I do think Ricky may need to become a bit less selective at the plate in order to cut down on a pretty steep K rate, but a change in approach carries risks too and he might be better off being a 3 true outcomes guy. But, it doesn't really matter what I think, now, does it? Here's some quotes from Fred Stanley in his recent interview with Joe Ritzo on sjgiants.com:
"Ricky is a big strong kid. He was starting to figure out how they were pitching him. He had a pretty solid year. I think if you asked him, he'll tell you he'd like to cut down on his strikouts a little bit. But when you're a strong guy and have the opportunity to hit 30 home runs, you're going to strikeout some. He learned a little bit about himself this year."
"Oropesa is learning to play first base. There are a lot of things going on with your footwork around the bag. J.T. Snow, Will Clark, Russ Morman have been working with him. He's received a lot of instruction. Every time he came out on the field during (fall) instructional league, he had an assignment on what we were working on for that day....That would have been tough during the regular season because you're playing 150 games and travelling. You don't want to wear everyone out. Instructional league was a time where we really bore down on him and he made really good progress."
AA is Ricky's probable assignment for 2013. It will be a very big challenge, especially in those first 1-2 months when the weather is still cold and he faces a lot of pitchers with way more professional experience. What he has to do, in my mind, is keep his head above water and show improvement. He's not young for his level but he's not old either. If he simply keeps his head above water, he has time to build on that in 2014. Hopefully he does a lot better than that!
Saturday, December 29, 2012
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #11: Francisco Peguero
Francisco Peguero, OF. DOB: 6/1/1988. 5'11", 195 lbs. B-R, T-R.
AAA: .272/.297/.394, 20 2B, 10 3B, 5 HR, 1 SB in 449 AB.
MLB: .188/.188/.188, 3 SB.
DWL: .194/.231/.290, 3 SB.
Francisco Peguero has been the most tooled up prospect in the Giants system for several years and apparently still is. He's a prospect who tends to spark the classic tools vs stats debates among various analysts depending on their biases. I have to confess to not quite knowing what to make of him or how to rank him on several levels. I had him ranked much lower in my first draft of this list. Then I saw a couple of references that have the Giants believing he still has the best bat speed in the organization and that caused me to move him up to #11.
Peguero has the tools, that's for sure. He can run, catch, throw and hit. He can hit for gap power even if he has not hit a lot of HR's, but he has had projectability for more dingers. His SB's have fallen way off the last two years but he also has had knee surgeries each of the last 2 springs. During his September callup, he showed no ill effects from the surgeries and ran the bases with impressive speed.
He does have some things working against him. While I am no slave to the notion that OBP is the end-all, be-all, but even I blanche at the sight of his walk rates! No matter how you spin it, he has to be swinging at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone to be walking that little. That, in turn, has to make you wonder whether the bat translates to the MLB level. He also is not getting any younger. Once upon a time he was young for his level and seemed to have a ton of projectability. Now, at age 24 going on 25, his window for breaking into MLB is getting very tight. Lastly, where do you put a guy like this? He is fast enough to play CF, and has the arm for RF, but does he have enough bat to play corner OF? Where do you put him in a lineup? On the surface, he looks like a leadoff hitter, but that OBP is prohibitively low for the top of the lineup. My opinion is you don't try to force him into being a leadoff hitter. You slot him lower in the lineup, let him slash away and see what you end up with.
Barring an unexpected setback or a new injury, he should come to spring training fully healthy for the first time in 3 years. It appears he will get a chance to compete for a roster spot as a 5'th OF. More likely, he will get sent back to AAA Fresno where he really needs to put up numbers like he did in Augusta and San Jose and be ready to grab his chance if an injury or face plant by a Blanco or Torres opens up an opportunity in SF.
AAA: .272/.297/.394, 20 2B, 10 3B, 5 HR, 1 SB in 449 AB.
MLB: .188/.188/.188, 3 SB.
DWL: .194/.231/.290, 3 SB.
Francisco Peguero has been the most tooled up prospect in the Giants system for several years and apparently still is. He's a prospect who tends to spark the classic tools vs stats debates among various analysts depending on their biases. I have to confess to not quite knowing what to make of him or how to rank him on several levels. I had him ranked much lower in my first draft of this list. Then I saw a couple of references that have the Giants believing he still has the best bat speed in the organization and that caused me to move him up to #11.
Peguero has the tools, that's for sure. He can run, catch, throw and hit. He can hit for gap power even if he has not hit a lot of HR's, but he has had projectability for more dingers. His SB's have fallen way off the last two years but he also has had knee surgeries each of the last 2 springs. During his September callup, he showed no ill effects from the surgeries and ran the bases with impressive speed.
He does have some things working against him. While I am no slave to the notion that OBP is the end-all, be-all, but even I blanche at the sight of his walk rates! No matter how you spin it, he has to be swinging at a lot of pitches outside the strike zone to be walking that little. That, in turn, has to make you wonder whether the bat translates to the MLB level. He also is not getting any younger. Once upon a time he was young for his level and seemed to have a ton of projectability. Now, at age 24 going on 25, his window for breaking into MLB is getting very tight. Lastly, where do you put a guy like this? He is fast enough to play CF, and has the arm for RF, but does he have enough bat to play corner OF? Where do you put him in a lineup? On the surface, he looks like a leadoff hitter, but that OBP is prohibitively low for the top of the lineup. My opinion is you don't try to force him into being a leadoff hitter. You slot him lower in the lineup, let him slash away and see what you end up with.
Barring an unexpected setback or a new injury, he should come to spring training fully healthy for the first time in 3 years. It appears he will get a chance to compete for a roster spot as a 5'th OF. More likely, he will get sent back to AAA Fresno where he really needs to put up numbers like he did in Augusta and San Jose and be ready to grab his chance if an injury or face plant by a Blanco or Torres opens up an opportunity in SF.
Friday, December 28, 2012
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #10: Mike Kickham
Mike Kickham, LHP. DOB: 12/12/1988. 6'4", 205 lbs. B-L, T-L.
AA: 11-10, 3.05, 150.2 IP, 75 BB, 137 K, GO/AO= 1.61.
Mike Kickham was drafted out of Missouri State in the 6'th round of the 2010 draft. He only got into 3 AZL games that summer and stumbled out of the gate with a 11.57 ERA in 2.1 IP. The Giants played it conservatively in 2011 assigning him to low A ball in Augusta. He started off slowly there too but made some adjustments around mid-season and finished very strong posting an overall line of 5-10, 4.11, 111.2 IP, 37 BB, 103 K with a modest groundball tendency, GO/AO= 1.46.
This time the Giants go aggressive with him and promoted him over high A SJ sending him to AA Richmond for 2012. He pitched well there all year, but improved his K/BB as the season progressed posting a 61/23 ratio post All-Star Break. For the months of June, July and August combined, he posted a 2.77 ERA before allowing 3 runs in 2 IP in one September appearance to bring his ERA after June 1 up to his season average.
I have not seen Kickham pitch, but he reportedly has a low 90's FB that he can get up to 94. In an interview he said the hardest he ever threw a single pitch was 95 MPH. He has a plus slider that he has a lot of confidence in. He said in the same interview that he feels he can get any hitter out with the slider. He also has a curve and change that he is developing.
I really like Kickham a lot. I love his size and tools. I like his attitude from interviews I've read. He seems to have an ability to accept instruction and work through challenges coming out stronger in the end. I like the way the Giants are developing him in an aggressively deliberate way. I think you could make a case for him ranking at high as #4 on this list, but regardless of his exact ranking, isn't it great the Giants have prospects in the system we can have that conversation about? While the Giants don't currently have that grade A blue chip prospect at the top, I don't think there are all that many organizations who have a prospect as good as Kickham at #10.
AAA will be a big test, but the Giants can afford to be patient with him and make sure he is fully developed as a pitcher by the time they need him in the majors. Hate to say it, but I also think he is building up a lot of trade value should a need for that arise. Oh, and if you are a numbers freak, he turned 24 yo on 12/12/12.
AA: 11-10, 3.05, 150.2 IP, 75 BB, 137 K, GO/AO= 1.61.
Mike Kickham was drafted out of Missouri State in the 6'th round of the 2010 draft. He only got into 3 AZL games that summer and stumbled out of the gate with a 11.57 ERA in 2.1 IP. The Giants played it conservatively in 2011 assigning him to low A ball in Augusta. He started off slowly there too but made some adjustments around mid-season and finished very strong posting an overall line of 5-10, 4.11, 111.2 IP, 37 BB, 103 K with a modest groundball tendency, GO/AO= 1.46.
This time the Giants go aggressive with him and promoted him over high A SJ sending him to AA Richmond for 2012. He pitched well there all year, but improved his K/BB as the season progressed posting a 61/23 ratio post All-Star Break. For the months of June, July and August combined, he posted a 2.77 ERA before allowing 3 runs in 2 IP in one September appearance to bring his ERA after June 1 up to his season average.
I have not seen Kickham pitch, but he reportedly has a low 90's FB that he can get up to 94. In an interview he said the hardest he ever threw a single pitch was 95 MPH. He has a plus slider that he has a lot of confidence in. He said in the same interview that he feels he can get any hitter out with the slider. He also has a curve and change that he is developing.
I really like Kickham a lot. I love his size and tools. I like his attitude from interviews I've read. He seems to have an ability to accept instruction and work through challenges coming out stronger in the end. I like the way the Giants are developing him in an aggressively deliberate way. I think you could make a case for him ranking at high as #4 on this list, but regardless of his exact ranking, isn't it great the Giants have prospects in the system we can have that conversation about? While the Giants don't currently have that grade A blue chip prospect at the top, I don't think there are all that many organizations who have a prospect as good as Kickham at #10.
AAA will be a big test, but the Giants can afford to be patient with him and make sure he is fully developed as a pitcher by the time they need him in the majors. Hate to say it, but I also think he is building up a lot of trade value should a need for that arise. Oh, and if you are a numbers freak, he turned 24 yo on 12/12/12.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #9: Heath Hembree
Heath Hembree, RHP. DOB: 1/13/1989. 6'4", 210 lbs. B-R, T-R.
High A: 0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's.
AAA: 1-1, 4.74, 38 IP, 20 BB, 36 K's, 15 Saves.
AFL: 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 3 BB, 12 K's, 2 Saves.
The Giants drafted Hembree in the 5'th round out of College of Charleston in 2010, and quickly served notice by ringing up 22 K's against 0 BB's in just 11 IP in what was left of that season. He was put on the closer track and blew through two levels, high A and AA in 2012 while racking up 78 K's in 53.1 IP while collecting 38 Saves. He ran into a bit of a headwind in AAA in 2012 as his walk rate crept up and his K rate took a hit. He missed part of the season with a forearm strain. Those can sometimes be harbingers of TJ surgery, but he came back fairly strong at the end of the season and had a successful AFL campaign.
Hembree is a big rawboned dude. More rangy big than stocky big with a long, loose arm. I saw him pitch early in the 2011 season for SJ. He relieved Zack Wheeler who had an absolutely dominating fastball that day and Hembree's was noticeably harder. The Stadium gun had him at 95-96. I didn't see more than one offspeed pitch from him that day. I had read some rumors of a loss of velocity before he hit the DL last year, and have not seen anything since he came back. I have the feeling he was throwing hard again. He is reputed to have a plus slider as a secondary offering.
It appears the Giants are setting him up to go back to Fresno to start the 2013 season. Whether he gets called up midseason would depend on team needs and his continued health and success at AAA. As I have said many times, I am not particularly a fan of the closer track for future closers unless there is an immediate need at the MLB level that you need to fast track a guy for. I just don't think closers face enough batters to polish their game, develop secondary stuff and improve command. I mean, has hard as he threw, even Brian Wilson needed both command and secondary stuff to be successful at the MLB level. I will say that over the last several years, Giants pitchers have been very good at developing new stuff on the fly while competing at the MLB level, so maybe it's a non-issue.
High A: 0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's.
AAA: 1-1, 4.74, 38 IP, 20 BB, 36 K's, 15 Saves.
AFL: 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 3 BB, 12 K's, 2 Saves.
The Giants drafted Hembree in the 5'th round out of College of Charleston in 2010, and quickly served notice by ringing up 22 K's against 0 BB's in just 11 IP in what was left of that season. He was put on the closer track and blew through two levels, high A and AA in 2012 while racking up 78 K's in 53.1 IP while collecting 38 Saves. He ran into a bit of a headwind in AAA in 2012 as his walk rate crept up and his K rate took a hit. He missed part of the season with a forearm strain. Those can sometimes be harbingers of TJ surgery, but he came back fairly strong at the end of the season and had a successful AFL campaign.
Hembree is a big rawboned dude. More rangy big than stocky big with a long, loose arm. I saw him pitch early in the 2011 season for SJ. He relieved Zack Wheeler who had an absolutely dominating fastball that day and Hembree's was noticeably harder. The Stadium gun had him at 95-96. I didn't see more than one offspeed pitch from him that day. I had read some rumors of a loss of velocity before he hit the DL last year, and have not seen anything since he came back. I have the feeling he was throwing hard again. He is reputed to have a plus slider as a secondary offering.
It appears the Giants are setting him up to go back to Fresno to start the 2013 season. Whether he gets called up midseason would depend on team needs and his continued health and success at AAA. As I have said many times, I am not particularly a fan of the closer track for future closers unless there is an immediate need at the MLB level that you need to fast track a guy for. I just don't think closers face enough batters to polish their game, develop secondary stuff and improve command. I mean, has hard as he threw, even Brian Wilson needed both command and secondary stuff to be successful at the MLB level. I will say that over the last several years, Giants pitchers have been very good at developing new stuff on the fly while competing at the MLB level, so maybe it's a non-issue.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Fantasy Focus: Players I Think Will Be Undervalued in 2013
In my last fantasy post, I pointed out the importance of being willing to pay for a valuable player, even if everybody else is thinking the same thing about him. Now we get to the part that gets everyone's juices flowing, finding the undervalued player. Undervalued players may not necessarily be the deep sleepers you get for $1 at the end of the draft or snag in the last round of a snake draft. Sometimes, a player can be undervalued even if you have to pay $25 or $30 for him. Last year I paid $30 for both Andrew McCutchen and Prince Fielder and they both ended up being bargains. So, who are the potential bargains I'm looking at for 2013 and why do I think that?
1. Bryce Harper, OF, Wash. It may seem strange thinking a guy coming off a Rookie of the Year honor is going to somehow be undervalued in a fantasy draft, but Harper's trophy has gone largely unnoticed in all the hoopla surrounding that guy in the other league. I'm not saying I wouldn't pay a premium for Mike Trout, but Mike Trout has absolutely nowhere to go in his career but down while Bryce Harper still has a ton of projection left. It's not like 22 HR's and 18 SB's last year was valueless either. I like Bryce Harper's future a lot and up to $30 for him might get you a player who is as valuable as someone you'd be willing to pay $50 for.
2. Brett Lawrie, 3B, TOR. Lawrie's stock was so overvalued last year, you could call it a bubble! As with real stock market crashes, sometimes the market over-corrects. Lawrie had a rough season last year but still put up double digits in both HR's and SB's, something you don't see often out of the 3B position. It was also his first full MLB season. He could be a huge bargain if you can get him in the $10-15 range.
3. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF. Pablo might have blown his cover with his WS performance, but I'm thinking he's still going to be undervalued come fantasy draft time. His weight and conditioning in spring training will have to be checked out, but with no hamate bones left to fracture, he's a good bet to stay healthy and regain his power which was non-existent for a couple of months after his return from the injury last year. I paid $20 for him last year and thought I got close to equal value. I'll be willing to push the bidding to $25 or even $30 this year.
4. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC. There are a lot of people out there thinking Moustakas was a bust last year, but he quietly hit 20 HR's in his first full MLB season. If you want to wait until the end of the draft to fill your 3B spot, he should be available and could give a huge return on the investment.
5. Alcides Escobar, SS, KC. Escobar remained available on the FA market in my fantasy league all last year, but he's quietly become a reliable source of a .300 BA with 30+ SB's which is not at all bad from the SS position. If the SS options early in the draft are too rich for your taste, you can safely wait until the end of the draft and grab Escobar.
6. Everth Cabrera, SS, SD. If you are looking for SB's from your SS position and nothing more, Cabrera might be an even better option than Escobar. Once he took over the position for the Padres in 2012, he stole 44 bases in 115 games/449 PA. You'll have to monitor the Padres plans for SS during spring training to make sure they don't intend to put someone else at the position, but if ECab is their starting SS on Opening Day, he could be a very cheap source of a lot of SB's.
7. Melky Cabrera, OF, TOR. Seems like Melky makes this list every year, but a lot of people are going to discount his 2012 performance as drug enhanced. Since I don't put a lot of stock in the efficacy of drugs to enhance performance, I'm not too worried about that. He should still be the same Melky of 2011 and 2012 playing in a park that should give him more HR's. I paid about $3 for him last year and I'm thinking he'll be a bargain for under $10 again in 2013.
8. Wilin Rosario, C, CO. Rosario is not a good defensive catcher, but we don't care about that in fantasy baseball. He did hit 28 HR's in 426 PA's last year. He may not be flying totally under the radar in 2013 but it's very possible Buster Posey goes for twice the cost in an auction draft and several rounds earlier in a snake draft. I'm pretty sure Rosario will be ranked behind Posey, Mauer, Molina and maybe even AJP on a lot of draft boards.
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
DrB's 2013 Giants Top 50 Prospects #8: Gustavo Cabrera
Gustavo Cabrera, OF. DOB: 1/23/1996. 6'0", 190 lbs. B-R, T-R.
2012: DNP.
Gustavo Cabrera was BA's #5 ranked international prospect prior to the July 2 signing day. The Giants managed to get him signed for $1.3 M. I'm guessing the new international spending limits agreed to in the new Basic Agreement with a the MLBPA helped out a lot as without those limits, I'm sure Cabrera would have gone for at least double that amount and the Giants might have been reluctant to spring for that.
If I was ranking on ceiling alone, Cabrera would be a strong candidate for #1 on this list. Even though BA had him ranked #5 overall, they had him ranked #1 in tools. In the past, I ranked both Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez much higher before they played any professional games. Their records make me much less irrationally exuberant with Cabrera. On the other hand, I have this feeling that the third time is going to be a charm. Villalona and RafRod had pretty obvious flaws from the get-go with Villalona having a significant weight issue and a one dimensional toolset(power), while RafRod was tall and thin and has yet to fill out his frame.
Cabrera, on the other hand, has a very well proportioned, athletic looking frame with narrow hips and a tapering torso with hulking shoulders. If I was going to comp his body type, I'd say Mike Trout! His speed has been described as "plus-plus." He can put on a show in batting practice, but in the video I've seen, he has a bit of a windup with a lot of length. Scouts reportedly have doubts about whether he will hit in games.
We don't have a track record of statistics to study, but Cabrera is not just a kid who wowed a scout at a tryout. He played on the Dominican team for RBI(Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities) and toured the states with them. He reportedly got 2 hits in their championship game with a walk and steal to earn MVP honors.
I've got to disagree with Rainball on the name here. Yeah, Gustavo Cabrera doesn't have much of a ring to it, but what if he becomes well known enough to just go by his first name? Gustavo! Not so bad, eh? The other option is GCab which would be most apropo as long as he remains in the Giants organization.
If he follows the same path as prior 7 figure international Giants signings, he will surface in Arizona this summer during short season ball. Look up his video on YouTube.
2012: DNP.
Gustavo Cabrera was BA's #5 ranked international prospect prior to the July 2 signing day. The Giants managed to get him signed for $1.3 M. I'm guessing the new international spending limits agreed to in the new Basic Agreement with a the MLBPA helped out a lot as without those limits, I'm sure Cabrera would have gone for at least double that amount and the Giants might have been reluctant to spring for that.
If I was ranking on ceiling alone, Cabrera would be a strong candidate for #1 on this list. Even though BA had him ranked #5 overall, they had him ranked #1 in tools. In the past, I ranked both Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez much higher before they played any professional games. Their records make me much less irrationally exuberant with Cabrera. On the other hand, I have this feeling that the third time is going to be a charm. Villalona and RafRod had pretty obvious flaws from the get-go with Villalona having a significant weight issue and a one dimensional toolset(power), while RafRod was tall and thin and has yet to fill out his frame.
Cabrera, on the other hand, has a very well proportioned, athletic looking frame with narrow hips and a tapering torso with hulking shoulders. If I was going to comp his body type, I'd say Mike Trout! His speed has been described as "plus-plus." He can put on a show in batting practice, but in the video I've seen, he has a bit of a windup with a lot of length. Scouts reportedly have doubts about whether he will hit in games.
We don't have a track record of statistics to study, but Cabrera is not just a kid who wowed a scout at a tryout. He played on the Dominican team for RBI(Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities) and toured the states with them. He reportedly got 2 hits in their championship game with a walk and steal to earn MVP honors.
I've got to disagree with Rainball on the name here. Yeah, Gustavo Cabrera doesn't have much of a ring to it, but what if he becomes well known enough to just go by his first name? Gustavo! Not so bad, eh? The other option is GCab which would be most apropo as long as he remains in the Giants organization.
If he follows the same path as prior 7 figure international Giants signings, he will surface in Arizona this summer during short season ball. Look up his video on YouTube.
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