Preseason Update: More Fear and Loathing(of Coronavirus) in Oracle Park

Anyone who was optimistic about the upcoming baseball season actually taking place got a rude wakeup call today as the Giants had to cancel practice at Oracle Park due to delays in getting results from test samples obtained over the weekend.  That is pretty much a microcosm of the entire country right now.  On top of that, there are reports of positive tests keep piling up with up to 10 players missing from some training camps with speculation it is due to positive tests.

I think i'll start taking over/under's for how many more days we have before MLB shuts down again.

Preseason Update: Fear and Loathing(of Coronavirus) in Oracle Park

The Coronavirus Pandemic continued to elbow baseball out of the way of preseason reporting both in Oracle Park and around the league.

The Giants announced that 2 more players tested positive.  I have not seen the names of those players, which leaves us wondering......

Johnny Cueto is, as always, in the best shape of his life.  That's great and all, but I want to know if his ARM is in the best shape of its life! Cueto reportedly pitched live batting practice to his friend, Eduardo Nunez, regularly during the shutdown to stay in game shape. Cueto says Nunez hit nothing but foul balls off him the whole time.

Brandon Belt, who really does look like he is in the best shape of his life, is diggin' the new dimensions at Oracle Park.

Poor Gabe Kapler felt obliged to come to Pablo Sandoval's defense for....ahem....not being in the best shape of his life.  Kap said the only thing he cares about is performance and talked about the universal DH.  Fact is, Pablo's historical on-field performance, including at the plate, is inversely proportional to his weight.

Ooh, a storm is threatening
My very life today
If I don't get some shelter
Ooh yeah, I'm gonna fade away....

Rolling Stones

State of the Red Sox

For 86 years after the sale of Babe Ruth to the Yankees and the legendary "Curse of the Bambino" the Red Sox built a cult following among baseball fans waiting for the spell to be broken.  It was in 2004 and the BoSox have won 3 more World Series Championships since.  They currently appear to be in a a rebuild mode after trading Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers for Alex Verdugo and prospects.

Ownership:  

The Red Sox are owned by Fenway Sports Group, Inc headed by billionaire John Henry and Tom Werner.  Henry made his stash trading commodities futures using a proprietary formula he developed.  Werner made his in television production. They have owned the team since 2002.  Although they seem to be in a pullback mode with payroll and in a rebuild phase, you really can't argue with the success of 4 World Series Wins under their ownership after 86 years of futility.

Grade A.

Management:  

Less than a year after winning the World Series, the Red Sox inexplicably fired Dave Dombrowski, who was all about raiding the farm system to win now, in favor the analytical approach of Chaim Bloom who they hired away from the Rays.  World Series winning Manager, Alex Cora, was let go in response to his role in the sign stealing scandal with the Astros.  The Red Sox had sign stealing issues of their own but less harsh penalties.  Ron Roenicke is the new manager. He is a veteran MLB manager and coach.

Grade B.

Current Roster:

Starting Nine:  Christian Vazquez C, Mitch Moreland 1B, Jose Peraza 2B, Rafael Devers 3B, Xander Bogaerts SS, Andrew Benintendi LF, Jackie Bradley Jr CF, Alex Verdugo RF, J.D. Martinez DH.

Bench:  Kevin Plawecki C, Michael Chavis IF, Kevin Pillar OF, Dustin Pedroia 2B.

Starting Rotation:  Eduardo Rodriguez LHP, Nathan Eovaldi RHP, Martin Perez LHP, Ryan Weber RHP, Colin McHugh RHP. (Ace Chris Sale is out for the season with TJ surgery).

Bullpen:  Brandon Workman RHP(Closer), Matthew Barnes RHP, Darwinzon Hernandez LHP, Josh Taylor LHP, Marcus Walden RHP, Ryan Brasier RHP, Heath Hembree RHP, Brian Johnson LHP.

This does not appear to be a contending roster even if Chris Sale was healthy.  He's not and this is no better than a .500 team.

Grade C.

Farm System:  

Jeter Downs SS heads MLB's list. I am a fan but don't see him as a #1 talent.  He is followed by Triston Casas 1B and Bobby Dalbec 3B/1B.  Bloom needs some more drafts and trades to build this up.

Grade C.

Spring Training Update: Pablo Sandoval COVID Concerns

Spring(or Summer) Training resumption day #2.

Pablo Sandoval....a picture is worth a thousand words and I don't know how to post pictures on this blog but....well.....let's just say Pablo does not appear to be in the best shape of his life, and that is putting it gently.  After seeing that picture, I would say I will be surprised if Pablo makes the 30-man Opening Day roster.

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On a happier note, Brandon Belt appears to be.....yep, in the best shape of his life.  Gabe Kapler appears to be a much bigger Brandon Belt fan than Bruce Bochy was and maybe Brandon responds better to positive feedback?  Is a breakout season still possible?

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Logan Webb threw live batting practice and reports say his stuff was electric.

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MLB is already struggling with mounting numbers of players and personnel testing positive for Coronavirus as well as more players deciding to opt out.  The big bombshell today was David Price who announced he was opting out, which is not good news for the Dodgers.  Then our own Buster Posey arrived at camp a day late expressing grave reservations about the wisdom of playing.  He's in for now but says he will monitor the situation both nationally and within MLB.  Catcher is an "Achilles heel" position as he has to squat within the range of every batter's respiratory droplet cloud as well as that of the umpire standing behind him.

Mike Trout, who has a pregnant wife at home, is also expressing discomfort with the whole situation.  Pregnant women are known to harbor the virus without symptoms but are also more likely to develop complications.  Gotta think the season is in a lot of trouble if the best player in the game opts out.

Spring Training Update: Setting Up The Pitching

It seems the one and only reason for normal spring trainings to be six weeks long, well, other than making money on exhibition games, is for the starting pitchers to ramp up their innings and relievers to appear in consecutive games before the season starts.  After more than a three month layoff and a summer training compressed to three weeks, that's not going to happen for the 2020 season.  So far, nobody seems to have a firm plan on how to adjust.  Ideas floating out there include 6-man rotations, tandem starters and more liberal use of openers.  All of these ideas require more arms than the usual 12-13 man staffs.  While teams my end up with 6-man rotations after starters are ramped up and rosters are cut down to 26, they don't help stretch the staff when starters are on pitch counts in the 50-60 range.  Openers just "rob Peter to pay Paul" by stealing bullpen arms from the late innings and burning them early.  That is why the tandem starter idea seems the most logical to me, at least for the first 2 weeks of the season. 

Teams often go with a 4 man rotation early in spring training when the starters are on low pitch counts then add the 5'th starter as the season approaches.  What this means is 8 pitchers could be allocated to 4 tandem starter pairs.  If each of the 8 tandem starters is allowed 60 pitches, the total SP pitch count would be 120 which should get you at least through the 6'th inning and possibly through the 7'th for most games and even a tandem CG here and there! Add 10 pitches each time through the rotation and you quickly get to 160 pitches allowed. This would allow a 6-7 member bullpen for the late innings.  As pitch counts ramp up you gradually shift to a Starter-long relief team and you may add a fifth or even sixth starter for the second two weeks when rosters are cut down to 28.  When rosters get down to 26 after 4 weeks, teams will have a choice of using the extra roster spot on a 6'th starter, extra bullpen arm or a specialty position like a full time DH or a designated runner for extra inning games.

So how doest this plan shake out for the Giants?  Well, actually very well!  The Giants may not have a clear ace at the top of the rotation but they have a deep roster of pitchers with starting experience.  They are even set up well to change up the matchups by pairing a lefty and righty for at least 3 of the 4 tandems.  Here's how I would pair them up:

Johnny Cueto-Tyler Anderson
Jeff Samardzija-Andrew Suarez
Kevin Gausman-Trevor Cahill
Drew Smyly-Logan Webb

If you limit yourself to 12 position players which is what a lot of teams did with 25 man rosters, you could carry 18 pitchers on a 30-man roster.  Most teams will likely carry at least 16.  The Giants have such a big roster crunch on the position side and so many ideas for specialty players, Alex P speculated that they may go with as few as 14 pitchers to start the season.  Is a 6-man bullpen enough to support 4 sets of tandem starters?  It could create a problem if one of the starters gets lit up early, but maybe that's where Pablo and Brandon Belt come in?  LOL!

Here is what I have for the bullpen depth chart in this scenario.  I'll list the top 6 and then add 4 more in case of a 10 man bullpen then 4 more depth pieces for the Taxi Squad(there will be more than 4 pitchers on the Taxi Squad).

Tony Watson LHP
Tyler Rogers RHP
Trevor Gott RHP
Jarlin Garcia LHP
Dany Jimenez RHP
Reyes Moronta RHP(if healthy)

Shaun Anderson RHP
Sam Coonrod RHP
Wandy Peralta LHP
Rico Garcia RHP

Tyler Cyr RHP
Jerry Blevins LHP
Trevor Oaks RHP
Carlos Navas RHP

How do you think the pitching staff gets set up?

State of the Yankees

The Yankees are the elite franchise in major league baseball, home to the game's first superstar, Babe Ruth, and a long string of Hall of Fame players and World Series Championships.  2019 marked the end of just the second decade since the 1910's in which the they failed to win a World Series Championship.  The 2010's were a period of relative spending restraint which impacted on-field performance.  Yankees fans are hoping the signing of Gerrit Cole brings back the tradition of sparing no expense and World Series Championships.

Ownership:

Harold Steinbrenner has been the principle owner of the Yankees since 2007 when his father, George Steinbrenner stepped back due to failing health.  Hal co-owned the team with his more outspoken brother, Hank, until Hank's death earlier this year.  The Steinbrenner family made their stash on shipping grain and ore on the Great Lakes going all the way back to Hal's great-great grandfather.  George Steinbrenner and his sons have been notorious hands-on owners which has been widely criticized but you can't really argue with the success. Their willingness to spend any amount of money to win drove up player salaries and drove MLB to create rules to promote competitive balance all of which led to an era of unprecedented wealth in the game for both owners and players.

Grade A-

Management: 

Brian Cashman has been the GM seemingly forever.  It is not easy to evaluated Cashman's impact on team performance as the Yankees are extremely ownership driven and Cashman has never had to deal with severe payroll restrictions.  Although the farm system has produced it's share of star players for the Yankees, Cashman also relies heavily on free agent talent and use of the farm system to trade for veteran talent.

Aaron Boone has been the Field Manager since 2018.  His teams won 100+ games but lost the ALCS in both 2018 and 2019.  Again, managing acumen is difficult to evaluate for Yankee managers due to the level of talent they have to work with.  On a side note, Boone is married to former Playboy Playmate Laura Cover. They have 4 children.

Grade B

Current Roster: 

Starting Nine:  Gary Sanchez C, Luke Voit 1B, DJ LeMahieu 2B, Gio Urshula 3B, Gleyber Torres SS, Giancarlo Stanton LF, Brett Gardner CF, Aaron Judge RF, Miguel Andujar DH.

Bench:  Kyle Higashioka C, Mike Ford 1B, Tyler Wade IF, Aaron Hicks OF.

Starting Rotation:  Gerrit Cole RHP, Mashiro Tanaka RHP, James Paxton LHP, JA Happ LHP, Jordan Montgomery LHP.

Bullpen:  Aroldis Chapman LHP, Zack Britton LHP, Luis Cessa RHP, Chad Green RHP, Jonathan Holder RHP, Tommy Kahnle RHP, Adam Ottavino RHP, Jonathan Loaisiga RHP.

When fully healthy, this is a stacked roster, although maybe a bit thin in the starting rotation.  The problem for the Yankees has been keeping their stars healthy.

Grade A-.

Farm System:

The Yankees have an elite international prospect, Jasson Dominguez OF, at the top of their prospect rankings.  RHP Clarke Schmidt and RHP Deivi Garcia could help at the MLB level this season.  I don't recognize many names after that.  Chances are most of them will eventually be sent to other teams in trades for veteran talent.

Grade B.

Spring Training Update: Where Will Mauricio Dubon Play?

I have to confess to fretting a bit about Mauricio Dubon.  For a quick recap, Dubon is the young infielder who came over from the Brewers in the Drew Pomeranz flip trade last year.  He tore up the PCL with Sacramento and played with aplomb after a late callup, mostly at 2B.  Not only does the kid look great in a baseball uniform, he hit 4 HR's and stole 3 bases in 109 PA and played in the field veteran savvy.  So, he's the presumptive starting 2B for 2020, right?  Not so fast there, pardner. 

Early on around the Hot Stove, Farhan Zaidi started spinning stories about giving Dubon reps in CF.  Then he went out and signed Wilmer Flores to a 2 yr/$6 M contract.  What is Flores' main position?  2B!  But FZ was not done.  As the Hot Stove was cooling down, he went out and signed Yolmer Sanchez, who was the starting 2B. for the White Sox last year.  It was a minor league deal but it's become increasingly likely that FZ wants Sanchez to make the team, for some reason.  Add in Donovan Solano who has a guaranteed contract and might not make the team at all and that pretty much buries Mauricio Dubon on the depth chart at 2B. 

What about shortstop?  He played there a few innings last year and didn't look half bad.  Once upon a time, Brandon Crawford was a better shortstop than Mauricio Dubon will ever be, but I'm not so sure Crawford is better now and Dubon is the guy with upside here.  Still, I don't see the Giants benching Brandon Crawford for Mauricio Dubon this season. 

That brings us to FZ's Hot Stove talking points.  Dubon to CF.  Hmm....if he can play the position defeinsively, and he seems to have the athleticism for it, if not the experience(reports of his prior experience in CF were greatly exaggerated).  Steven Dugger probably needs to prove out at AAA to get another shot and YtY is probably more of a corner OF.  Then FZ went out and signed Billy Hamilton to a minor league deal, but again it looks like he really wants BHam to make the team and he's a CF.  Now, if the Giants sign Yasiel Puig, and they may not, but if they do, he'll either play CF or he'll play RF while YtY slides over to CF.  Again, Mauricio Dubon is the odd man out.

Maybe Dubon plays all three positions part time and accumulates the equivalent of a starting job while splitting his time.  It probably makes the most sense for him to sub in against LHP's at all 3 positions but LHP's account for about 25% of IP and Dubon can only play one position at a time.

It's also possible that FZ is not as in love with Dubon as he seems to be.  The kid does not take many walks and you can tell from the draft picks that FZ is a classic old school Moneyballer who values walks highly.

Mauricio Dubon is going to the one of the more interesting story lines of the season and I'm not that confident he isn't going to get shoved aside in The Churn.