After bringing Kris Bryant over from the Cubs at the trade deadline, Farhan Zaidi now has a big decision to make. Bryant is a free free agent. In other words, FZ can't make a Qualifying Offer, not that a QO would make much difference in Bryant's situation.
Despite a slump in September which may have been related to a hammy injury, Kris Bryant did what FZ acquired him to do. Maybe he didn't quite carry the offense in Augusta, but he came close and his bat came alive in the postseason too. He was not the reason the Giants lost that series to the Dodgers.
So, where does that leave us in terms of his free agency? I just looked up a 2021-2022 free agent prediction which had Bryant signing with the Phillies for 7 years/$250 M. Now, Bryant is well known to strongly prefer playing on the west coast and has expressed a sense of happiness with the Giants organization so, it seems like the ball is in FZ's court and he can have Bryant if he's willing to pay the price. I'm guessing Scott Boras is not Bryant's agent because Bryant is willing to give a big discount for sentimental reasons. 7/$250 M seems like it's about what it's going to take although it would not surprise me if he's looking something that will take him to retirement and maybe a little beyond. A 10 year deal would take him through age 39 so I'm going to say 10 yr/$300 M will make him a Giant for life.
One team can generally only afford one or two contracts like that, so the question for FZ is if Bryant is THAT guy? The guy you construct your team around for the next 10 years? When fully healthy, yes, he is that guy but he's been a bit injury prone over the last 4 seasons. Is that the beginning of a physical decline or a series of flukes that don't predict future injuries?
These are the very big questions FZ has to answer to himself and to ownership. Bryant is probably the top non-shortstop on the free agent market. Looking ahead to next year's free agent class the only player who tops Bryant in value is Trea Turner. The Dodgers appear to be likely to let Corey Seager go in favor of Turner which only makes sense if they sign him long term, so the probability that he gets to the open market would appear to be small.
My prediction: Giants sign Kris Bryant for 10 years/$300 M.
Is Kris Bryant The Guy?
ReplyDeleteHe is a Great Guy, multi faceted, Jack of all (at least many) trades – Master of none.
Alex Pavlovic said on Twitter years ago that the Giants made a 12-year, $310 million offer to Bryce Harper @26 yo (who led the Phillies to a 82-80 record this season).
Bryant will be 30 the first year of his new contract, Harper was 26.
Zaidi could have had Harper for $400 M but that was then and this is now.
My prediction: Giants won't go anywhere near 10 years/$300 M.
But he'll get it from someone.
Key phrase there is "...he'll get it from someone."
DeleteHope it's not the Giants!
Delete4 years, $100 M, max in years, max in $$, and too much, but, with changes in the CBA coming, who knows?
The Giants should want to have flexibility when the top prospects start coming aboard in 2-4 years, to add pitching then and not have huge commitments to mid-30 yo guys.
4 yr/$100 M is laughable. You are essentially saying you don't want him at any reasonable price(I know, how can $100 M not be reasonable but you do have to consider the market). At some point, FZ will have to make a big contract commitment or two or risk turning the Giants into the A's West. Always close but never quite good enough to win it all.
DeleteHas FZ ever signed anyone to this type of contract? I am not familiar enough with his work to know. I personally am not a big fan of these long term deals and prefer to overpay for shorter terms. I like Kris Bryant and think he could be a good bridge when the young guys in the minors are ready but 10 years for anyone is too long IMO.
ReplyDeleteBilly Baseball
It's true they are risky but when they work out, they can make your team a perennial postseason entry.
DeleteThis is a tougher question than with Buster and Belt. I’m not sure he fits the description of being one of the two big contract players on the roster. How about Corey Seager or Carlos Correa and have them play 3rd base until Crawford retires? Bryant just never seemed to reach the elite status that was expected although he is a very good player.
ReplyDeleteDo you think Seager or Correa would sign for any price if the deal included moving off SS? I think not.
DeleteAny price? With lots of years? Move to 3B for 2 years? Correa bats RH, means he would often play SS against lefties.
Delete99% it comes down to $$
I believe it is highly unlikely that either Seager or Correa accept FA offers that move them off SS for 2-3 years permanently or temporarily.
DeleteI hope the Giants resign Kris Bryant, but no way at all at that cost. I just don't see the need to bog down the roster for an entire decade with a player who is not elite. For one thing Bryant will be 30 years old when the season starts. So for modern day purposes he is already past his prime. And for the purposes that I believe is the prime years he has 2 maybe 3 left. After that point it is a bad contract. His versatility to be played all across the outfield will likely be limited in the next few years, and his offense has not been elite in my opinion. Now don't get me wrong I like this guy a lot, but I'd rather over pay him for a few years than be stuck with him for 10. Farhan's longest contract to date is the 3 years he gave LaStella last year. That takes him until Tommy is like 34 or something. Brandon Crawford's extension was for 2 more years so that takes him until he is 35 or so. Brandon will "only" be making 16miL avg/yr with his new deal. I say all that because the next wave of Giants talent is getting closer, and I do not believe Farhan will want to sabotage the future like the previous regime. I'm going to predict 3yrs 90 million and that's the longest and best deal I would do for Kris Bryant.
ReplyDeleteIf your offer is 3 years/$90 M, you might as well not make it. Bryant will have no trouble getting much longer terms for the same AAV or even higher.
DeleteIf Kris Bryant gets 10yrs 300miL I'll be sure to get back on here and let you know that you are right. But I don't think it even approaches that.
DeleteAt least one FA predictor site has Bryant getting 8 years/$250 M which still makes 3/$90 M laughable. If he gets close to 8/$250 M, I'll still hold you to it.
DeleteI think 3/90 is what I think he is worth. I wouldn't want Giants to get tangled up in any more than that. And I don't believe Farhan and Harris would either. I think that's why they are sort of ho hum "he'll have a lot of suitors" because he doesn't fit the Giants payroll plans. Having Scott Boras as the agent makes the probability of a long drawn out waiting period as well. I know Kris says he's running the show, but come on - it's Scott Boras. It may be laughable, but even at 8yrs 250 Giants will not be involved in that conversation. I'll be happy to say I'm wrong in that case as well :)
DeleteEnjoy your break and thanks for all that you do! I enjoy your site and write ups.
You can't just ignore the market when valuing players. You obviously don't like Bryant as a player and don't want the Giants to sign him, but his market value is about 3 times times your personal valuation which is pretty ridiculous. I agree FZ does not seem to be too optimistic about the Giants signing him.
Delete$300M/10 years
ReplyDeleteWould strongly prefer $30M over 8 years. Otherwise, I say break the bank for Max Scherzer to bolster the pitching. He's elite, he seems to be fairly injury resistant, and he just seems like a Rodger Clemons type who'll pitch into his early 40's with dominant stuff and then retire a legend.
I'm glad Farhad Z is the one making the decisions here though - I have a tremendous amount of faith in the guy, his FO team, and in the coaches we now have.
Maybe 8 yrs/$240 gets it done. If not, do you really think those last two years are so important they should be a dealbreaker?
Deletelet Bryant go / spend on starting pitching. Team has so much OF depth both in majors & minors, making that size & that duration commitment does not make sense to me
ReplyDeleteThe Giants do have a lot of OF's on the roster. None of them are anywhere close to the caliber of player that Kris Bryant is. As for the minors, their top OF prospects like Luis Matos are still 2-3 years away and Bryant wouldn't be blocking them anyway.
DeleteI will say that in Maria Guardado's quote from her "5 Takeaways" article, FZ sounded less than committed to pursuing Bryant. Saying the Giants recognize he is a superstar but there will be a long line for his services and we'll have to see what develops.
ReplyDeleteI love Kris Bryant, but I just don't see FZ going 10/$300. I would rather go Chris Taylor 5/$65. Not a huge difference offensively, and Taylor is a better, more versatile defender
ReplyDeleteHow sure are you of getting Chris Taylor for 5/$65 M?
DeleteWhat about 8/$250 M which is what one FA prediction site is saying Bryant will get?
Delete