We'll tackle this in one post rather than spread it out over each individual member. Logan Webb is the only SP in the rotation certain to return next year and he's a heckuva dude to be the ace or anchor of the rotation. Beyond that, FZ has a range of options including bringing the gang back on free agent contracts to letting The Churn do it's work with another collection of 1 year/"bounceback" contracts like Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood started with. Without taking the time to go into too much detail, here's approximately what it will take to "keep the gang together":
Kevin Gausman RHP: One early FA prediction pegs him for 4 yr/$100 M. We all know the story: Cy Young candidate in first half, regression in second half, nice recovery in final two starts of the regular season, disappointing start against the Dodgers in the postseason. Is the enough to make the 9 figure commitment? He's not eligible for a QO.
Anthony DeSclafani RHP: DeSclafani's season mirrored Gausman's. He actually did great against all teams but the Dodgers but he did terrible against them including an extremely disappointing NLDS start. He's eligible for a QO and I would say is on the bubble for one. I'm thinking the Giants can either re-sign him at a lower price or get equal to better value with other FA pitchers.
Alex Wood LHP: Wood has had a long up-and-down career with injury marred seasons following good ones. Age alone precludes a long term deal. Like DeSclafani, probably not quite worth a QO despite an excellent season which clouds his likelihood of coming back.
Johnny Cueto RHP: It was another mostly lost season for Cueto but he made an intriguing appearance in the last week of the season. The Giants will certainly exercise their $5 M buyout of his option. I read an interesting idea on another blog that maybe instead of the buyout, the Giants tack on an extra $2-3 M and sign him to a 1 year "bounceback" deal. That makes a lot of sense for both sides.
The Giants don't have any Logan Webbs in the upper minors ready to step up. FZ will likely have his pick of many FA pitchers looking to parlay a 1 year contract into a future payday. Lastly, he might be able to trade Joey Bart for a high end pitching prospect or two but that's another post.
Any chance Beede is thrown into the mix?
ReplyDeleteWebb, Wood, Gausman (at a reasonable price), Beede, and either Hjelle or Teng (I know that he needs some more seasoning).
Beede is kind of the forgotten guy. I think there is still intriguing upside there. Hope they hang onto him and see how he looks in spring training.
DeleteBecause he might lose his spot on the 40-man roster when the season ends along with his IL status?
DeleteI am curious about Hjelle. Based on what I read he is also a high ceiling pitcher, if he can put everything together.
ReplyDeleteI think Hjelle has a bright future but he probably needs at least another half season of salt in AAA before he's ready to make his move.
DeleteHonestly, looking at the list of available FA SP's. there aren't many good options. Sherzer is going to cost a huge amount, and there will be a lot of competition to sign him. Gausman is the next best on the list. After that, everyone else on the list is either old or inconsistent. Pitching is almost always a risky deal, and this years options are especially so. We'll see where FZ decides to place his bets.
ReplyDeleteI think there are some intriguing 1 year/bounceback possibilities out there but in the top tier of SP FA's, Gausman is probably very close to the best available. He will very likely get paid accordingly by someone.
DeleteI'll throw one name out there that the Giants reputation for jumpstarting pitching careers might attract: Michael Lorenzen wants a shot at starting and what better situation to prove himself than the Giants?
DeleteThe Giants seem to have developed a skill in identifying and unlocking latent talent and reviving flagging careers, or at least they have the reputation and mystique of being better than most, if not all, other teams at doing so. So it is certain that other teams are going to study the Giants closely and try to poach some of their coaching and front office personnel to try to replicate their methods. That means the window of opportunity the Giants have to remain a leg up on the rest of baseball is going to close quickly.
ReplyDeleteTo that end I think it may be wise to take advantage of their vast resources and sign at least a couple of premium free agents and a couple more mid-range free agents right now, when there figures to be a relative buyers' market with a large number of star quality players available. It stands to reason that the Giants are one of the most desirable free agent destinations given how they provide the chance for players to revive careers or to take their performance to the next level so they should also appeal to lower tier free agents with bounceback potential, who would hopefully seek out the Giants.
They should of course simultaneously continue to mine for gold to find more Yaz's, Wade Jr's, DeSclafani's and useful bullpen pieces but I suspect teams are going to be a bit more wary about trading with the Giants because teams may surmise that any player the Giants are targeting has untapped value that they should not trade away.
This will be a critical offseason for creating a strong bridge that spans the next few seasons until the fruits of the farm are realized. If done well, and I have every confidence in Farhan and Co. that it will, the Giants will remain a force to deal with for the remainder of this decade.
Well said. I agree with most of this analysis.
DeleteFree agency is hard to predict.. Kevin Gausman- signing him is huge since expectations in 2022 will be high. I have a feeling they'll offer a QO to either Wood or DeScafani and sign or trade for the rest of the rotation. I'm sure FZ will want to have 7-8 SP for 2022. Maybe Tyler Beede or Sammy Long can take steps forward to help. I'll throw out the name Marcus Stroman, who made a nice comment on Logan Webbs potential on Twitter. Would he consider signing with SF if offered 3-4 year at $20 mil a year?
ReplyDelete