Here's another one where if you asked this question in 2019 the answer would have been a resounding no! Then The Belter had a strong if shortened 2020 season then an astonishing 2021 and in so many ways. To my eye, Belt backed off the plate by 2-3 inches which enabled him to get around better on inside fastballs. He's got long enough arms to still cover the outside corner. The result was some truly crazy good offensive numbers with a slash line of .274/.378/.597 and 29 HR's and an fWAR of 3.3 in just 381 PA's.
So a QO or contract extension is automatic, right? The problem is The Captain's longstanding durability issues continued to dog him. He's got a chronically bad knee which at one point in the season seemed to be a serious threat to end his career then and there. He must have worked really hard in rehab and came back looking friskier than he has in years then went on an incredible offensive tear that carried the team for several weeks. Then as the end of the season approached, he found yet another way to run into a pitch with his hand and missed the postseason. It's both inspiring and depressing to think about how his presence in the lineup against all those Dodgers RHP's might have changed the outcome of the series.
At this point a 1 year contract for the QO price of $18.4 M seems like it would be a great deal for both the Giants and The Captain. If he's healthy, he's worth way more than that. If the knee goes bad again, it's only a 1 year risk. I would prefer that over a multi-year deal at a slightly lower AAV, but who knows what kind of a contract he can find on the open market?
My verdict is yes, offer Brandon Belt the QO and I think there is about an 80% he's a Giant in 2022.
Enjoy your posts. Looking forward to your prospect list
ReplyDeleteIt really is depressing, The Captain might have been able to mitigate getting "Tim Donaghy'd" by the umps.
ReplyDeleteI love the idea of the QO for Belt, I can't imagine another team giving him anything long term, if anything I'd worry about LA offering him 1yr/20 million, because they are evil.
Seems like our veterans, who were already considered damaged goods, like the idea of sticking around to drink from the fountain of youth Farhan's Analytical Circus has brought to town.
Changes to the park have also helped. Homers are fun.
The 2021-2 class of FA @ 1B isn't much after Freeman and, well, Belt. Rizzo? The rest is pretty long in the tooth.
ReplyDeleteGiven the not-too-exciting FA market, someone will probably take a $50M 3-year flyer on BB, especially since he's actually getting better. Or so it seems.
Since the Giants don't have a 1B who is an obvious choice coming up to replace Belt and/or Ruf/Wade/Flores, might as well give him the QO — and if that doesn't work, they can still try to sign him for a couple years: there's no breakout candidate in the system at 1B.
OTOH, the 3 Giants not named Belt above can make a reasonable and not expensive platoon and put the $20,000,000 somewhere else. After C and SS, 1B is the Giants best offensive position.
And there's Kris Bryant...
As I've previously said, I don't think they'll bring him back. If they don't give him an actual contract, a QO is a slap in the face. A front office CYA to keep the fans happy. They're not cash poor. No reason they can't offer him a 2 year deal. However, I don't think that they will.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they will work out a deal prior to the QO deadline, but if they don't, I don't see it as being a slap in the face at all. It means they still see a lot of value in him and sets a floor for it. To my eye, it's a win-win scenario. BTW, Kevin Gausman didn't seem to see it as a slap in the face.
DeleteWouldn't be surprised to see him sign same deal as his SS namesake.
ReplyDeleteI'm all in for it.
He'll do better than that – look at the market.
DeleteI'm thinking Belt gets at least a QO. In current bargaining agreement rules, doesn't a QO also result in a compensatory pick if declined?
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