Catching seems to be in a transitional phase around MLB. Between free agents and trades that have already been made, it seems likely that a large number of teams will have new starting catchers in 2019, but not ones who are new to the league. There were 2 more significant moves today.
The Mariners filled the position left open by the Mike Zunino trade by acquiring Omar Narvaez from the White Sox for RHP Alex Colome. Narvaez slashed .275/.366/.429 in 322 PA last year while filling in as the starter when Welington Castillo was slapped with a 50 game suspension. Maybe the ChiSox thought Narvaez expendable with Castillo coming back but what if Castillo gets suspended again? What if he gets hurt? As for Colome, last year was a big letdown after posting 47 Saves in 2017. He was traded from the Rays to the Mariners midseason where he was setup man for Edwin Diaz. Both Diaz and Colome are now likely traded away by Trader Jerry. Seems like a fairly even trade, but now what will the Mariners do for a bullpen? Maybe this is a rare trade that hurts both teams? It seems like both teams substantially weakened one area to strengthen another. Stay tuned for more moves, especially from Trader Jerry.
The Indians sent Yan Gomes packing to the Nationals for a couple of prospects, OF Daniel Johnson and RHP Jefry Rodriguez. This his a nice pickup by the Nationals who will pair up Gomes with recently acquired Kurt Suzuki for a significant upgrade of the position over last season. What's not clear is why the Indians are practically giving away Gomes. In-house replacements consist of extremely weak hitting Roberto Perez and prospect Eric Haase who struck out over 30% of the time in the minors and will likely struggle to hit .200 in the majors. Maybe the Indians are going to make a run at a FA catcher, but then why didn't they just keep Gomes? Nationals win this trade.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants signed Joe Panik and Sam Dyson to contract extensions, thus avoiding arbitration. They also tendered a contract to Will Smith but Smith has not accepted meaning they could be headed for arbitration. Gorkys Hernandez and Hunter Strickland were not tendered contracts and were designated for assignment. As a writer on another blog said, if Zaidi can't find upgrades on both Gorkys and Strick, why did the Giants hire him?
*********************************************************************************
A few non-tender names of note: Billy Hamilton, Avisail Garcia, Jonathan Schoop, Shelby Miller. I could be crazy, but I have this feeling Shelby Miller is a big comeback candidate for 2019. If Bobby Evans were still the GM, it would be almost a slam dunk for the Giants to sign Billy Hamilton, but Hamilton seems like the exact opposite of the type of player Farhan Zaidi is likely looking for.
Friday, November 30, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Padres To Sign Garrett Richards
While we wait to see if the Mets back away from one of the worst trades in baseball history, RHP Garrett Richards announced via Twitter that he agreed to a free agent contract with the Padres. Terms of the deal are said to be 2 years/$15.5 M with an additional $2.5 M in incentives. Richards was one of my offseason targets for the Giants even though he will miss most or all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. When healthy, he's an elite hurler well worth his MLBTR projected contract. Spread over 2 years, the AAV is just $5 M which is close to a negligible hit on the CBT. The fact he received $15.5 shows other teams viewed him the same way and he benefitted from a rumored bidding war between the Dodgers and Padres.
I still like the deal but a little less than I did at $10 M. First of all, the Padres are guaranteed to get little or nothing in return in 2019 and while the majority of pitchers do have some form of success after TJ, it's not necessarily in the first season back and some don't come back at all, so there are real risks the entire $15.5 M goes for naught. I'm OK with letting the Padres take that risk, but I'll grind my teeth when Richards pitches a shutout while striking out 12 Giants in a game in 2020.
I still like the deal but a little less than I did at $10 M. First of all, the Padres are guaranteed to get little or nothing in return in 2019 and while the majority of pitchers do have some form of success after TJ, it's not necessarily in the first season back and some don't come back at all, so there are real risks the entire $15.5 M goes for naught. I'm OK with letting the Padres take that risk, but I'll grind my teeth when Richards pitches a shutout while striking out 12 Giants in a game in 2020.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Bobby Witt Jr
Bobby Witt Jr, RHP/SS, HS. DOB: B-R, T-R. 6'1", 185 lbs.
Bobby Witt Jr. has been on scouting radars at least since he was a freshman in HS. He is the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt. 2-way player in HS but will be drafted as a SS. He can play any IF position well. He throws 92 MPH from a mound and from the IF. He runs the 60 yd dash in 6.4 sec which is fast. He's hit 100 MPH with exit velocity.
On video he looks wiry strong with outstanding proportionality and smooth, athletic actions. In other words, he looks darn good in a baseball uniform! Swing is simple albeit a bit on the long side with a small bat wrap. Front leg lift is simple. I would not call it a kick.
He is ranked as the #1 2019 draft prospect by MLB Pipeline and several other early rankings. Fangraphs has him a bit lower at #9. I don't think Witt Jr is quite in the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado tier of HS draft prospects, but he's pretty darn close. He should rapidly develop into a perennial All-Star SS.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's 2019 Draft Board
1. Bobby Witt Jr., RHP/SS, HS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St.).
Statistically the best draft demographic is college hitter and I was all ready to put Rutschman ahead of Witt Jr. until I saw the videos. Can't pass on the athleticism and upside Bobby Witt Jr. brings.
Bobby Witt Jr. has been on scouting radars at least since he was a freshman in HS. He is the son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt. 2-way player in HS but will be drafted as a SS. He can play any IF position well. He throws 92 MPH from a mound and from the IF. He runs the 60 yd dash in 6.4 sec which is fast. He's hit 100 MPH with exit velocity.
On video he looks wiry strong with outstanding proportionality and smooth, athletic actions. In other words, he looks darn good in a baseball uniform! Swing is simple albeit a bit on the long side with a small bat wrap. Front leg lift is simple. I would not call it a kick.
He is ranked as the #1 2019 draft prospect by MLB Pipeline and several other early rankings. Fangraphs has him a bit lower at #9. I don't think Witt Jr is quite in the Bryce Harper/Manny Machado tier of HS draft prospects, but he's pretty darn close. He should rapidly develop into a perennial All-Star SS.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's 2019 Draft Board
1. Bobby Witt Jr., RHP/SS, HS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St.).
Statistically the best draft demographic is college hitter and I was all ready to put Rutschman ahead of Witt Jr. until I saw the videos. Can't pass on the athleticism and upside Bobby Witt Jr. brings.
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Three Minor League Free Agents
There was a flurry of minor league FA signings with the Giants announcing 3. Here they are:
Levi Michael, 2B. DOB: 2/9/1991. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 180 lbs.
2018 AA(Mets): .305/.391/.470, 30 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 13 SB, 7.8 BB%, 20.8 K%.
Former 2011 first round pick(#30) by the Twins out of North Carolina. Has had an up and down pro career. Hits righties and lefties about the same. Will compete with Ryan Howard and CJ Hinojosa for placement and playing time.
Zach Green, 3B/1B. DOB: 3/7/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs.
2018 AA(Phillies): .296/.375/.578, 17 HR, 9.0 BB%, 25.6 K%, 312 PA.
2018 AAA(Phillies): .248/.312/.432, 3 HR, 7.2 BB%, 35.5 K%, 138 PA.
Nice power numbers but I believe Reading and Scranton-Wilkes Barre are both hitter friendly venues.
Jin-De Jhang, C. DOB: 5/17/1993. B-L, T-R. 5/9", 225 lbs.
AA(Pirates): .320/.373/.410, HR, 8.1 BB%, 10.4 K%, 135 PA.
Catching depth.
Levi Michael, 2B. DOB: 2/9/1991. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 180 lbs.
2018 AA(Mets): .305/.391/.470, 30 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 13 SB, 7.8 BB%, 20.8 K%.
Former 2011 first round pick(#30) by the Twins out of North Carolina. Has had an up and down pro career. Hits righties and lefties about the same. Will compete with Ryan Howard and CJ Hinojosa for placement and playing time.
Zach Green, 3B/1B. DOB: 3/7/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs.
2018 AA(Phillies): .296/.375/.578, 17 HR, 9.0 BB%, 25.6 K%, 312 PA.
2018 AAA(Phillies): .248/.312/.432, 3 HR, 7.2 BB%, 35.5 K%, 138 PA.
Nice power numbers but I believe Reading and Scranton-Wilkes Barre are both hitter friendly venues.
Jin-De Jhang, C. DOB: 5/17/1993. B-L, T-R. 5/9", 225 lbs.
AA(Pirates): .320/.373/.410, HR, 8.1 BB%, 10.4 K%, 135 PA.
Catching depth.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Thoughts on Launch Angle
I could have entitled this post Thoughts on Matty and The Hat. We've been hearing and reading a lot about the "Launch Angle Revolution" in baseball with many teams teaching their players to use more of an uppercut swing in order to hit more flyballs and give themselves a chance for more HR's through the magic of HR/FB. I am old enough to remember when a pretty famous player and manager went the other direction with a lot of success.
This was 1966 around the time I started listening to a lot of Giants games on the radio. The Giants and Dodgers of course had their rivalry and were about to finish 1-2 on the NL for the second year in a row with the Giants coming up just short both times. The 3'rd best team in the league was the Pirates whose manager was a hitting guru named Harry "The Hat" Walker. Harry Walker had won a batting title as a player and was a perennial .300 hitter and was very vocal about his hitting ideas. Harry's success as a left-handed hitter came from hitting line drives and groundballs up the middle and to the opposite field. He thought he could help other hitters find success by following that game plan.
I don't know if Harry Walker knew anything about HR/FB, but he clearly did not believe this was a number that normalized the same for every hitter. Here's a quote I found in a SI article from 1983, "The greatest hitter I ever knew was Ted Williams. He had arm strength and the quickest hips I ever saw. But in my career of 40-odd years, God didn't give us but one man like him, so you can't say everybody should hit like Williams. You take a guy like Harry Walker, who's below average, and you try to get the average out of him."
Mateo "Matty" Alou was a small left-handed hitter who played with his 2 brothers, Felipe and Jesus, for the Giants. Matty was just 5'9" and was listed at 160 lbs. He might not have been that big. With the Giants, he swung a light bat with an uppercut swing and did not have a lot of success after his rookie season of 1961. That season he hit .310 with 6 HR's in 217 PA which projects to about 18 HR's over 600 PA's. From there his BA's declined to .292, .145, .264 and .232. He was traded to the Pirates before the 1966 season which coincided with Harry Walker's first full season as Manager.
Walker thought Matty Alou would be a perfect player for implementing his hitting ideas and convinced Matty to swing a heavier bat, chop down on the ball and try to hit it up the middle and to the left side. The results were astounding. Matty hit .342 and won a batting title. He was not just a 1 year wonder either. For the next 3 seasons with the Pirates, Matty did not hit less than .331. You may scoff about empty batting averages but Matty put up fWAR's of 2.8, 3.4, 4.4 and 4.4 during that run. OK that's not exactly MVP range but his highest fWAR with the Giants was 0.9.
Matty Alou was not the only player who Harry "The Hat" helped turn around. Miguel Dilone, another small but fast player saw his BA jump from .220 in 1979 to .341 after working with Harry. Omar Moreno never hit in the .300's, but with Harry's help was able to lift his BA from Mendoza Line territory into the mid .200's which got him on base enough to steal up to 96 bases in a season. Moreno's career had more ups and downs than Matty Alou's which Moreno attributed to his own recidivism away from Harry Walker's approach. Again from the 1983 SI article, he got away from punching the ball up the middle and to the opposite field and tried to pull the ball, with disastrous results. Walker was no longer the Pirates Manager and Moreno made a pilgrimage to Walker's home in Birmingham, AL: "The last 2 years I haven't hit that well because the Pirates tried to change me, so right now I'm trying to remind myself of everything I did in 1979. Walker added, "Instructing a hitter is not so much changing him, but finding a guy's natural style of hitting and, when he gets out of it, trying to get him back into it. Omar needs a few days to get in the groove." Here's another Walker quote: "I'm tired of hearing about pulling the ball. That's misleading young hitters. Every Scout tells them to jerk the ball out. That's asking a kid to do something he can't. If you can't jerk it out, take it to centerfield. Make adjustments." Other hitters Harry Walker worked with who found success included Mookie Wilson, Phil Garner and Terry Puhl.
Harry Walker's approach clearly does not work for everybody. You would not want Willie Mays or Willie McCovey trying to put the ball on the ground and slap it the other way. Walker's approach probably works best for players like Matty Alou and Omar Moreno, lefty hitters with little power but who can run fast enough to beat out groundballs for singles. You also would not want a lineup full of hitters like that, but having 2 or even 3 Matty Alou's or Omar Moreno's in the lineup would make a nice fit for the Giants in AT&T Park which severely suppresses HR's.
The early word on Farhan Zaidi is that he will look in the opposite direction to try to find hitters who will follow the Launch Angle Revolution and get the ball in the air. After years of watching hard hit flyballs die on the warning track and in Triples Alley I wonder how successful that approach will be.
This was 1966 around the time I started listening to a lot of Giants games on the radio. The Giants and Dodgers of course had their rivalry and were about to finish 1-2 on the NL for the second year in a row with the Giants coming up just short both times. The 3'rd best team in the league was the Pirates whose manager was a hitting guru named Harry "The Hat" Walker. Harry Walker had won a batting title as a player and was a perennial .300 hitter and was very vocal about his hitting ideas. Harry's success as a left-handed hitter came from hitting line drives and groundballs up the middle and to the opposite field. He thought he could help other hitters find success by following that game plan.
I don't know if Harry Walker knew anything about HR/FB, but he clearly did not believe this was a number that normalized the same for every hitter. Here's a quote I found in a SI article from 1983, "The greatest hitter I ever knew was Ted Williams. He had arm strength and the quickest hips I ever saw. But in my career of 40-odd years, God didn't give us but one man like him, so you can't say everybody should hit like Williams. You take a guy like Harry Walker, who's below average, and you try to get the average out of him."
Mateo "Matty" Alou was a small left-handed hitter who played with his 2 brothers, Felipe and Jesus, for the Giants. Matty was just 5'9" and was listed at 160 lbs. He might not have been that big. With the Giants, he swung a light bat with an uppercut swing and did not have a lot of success after his rookie season of 1961. That season he hit .310 with 6 HR's in 217 PA which projects to about 18 HR's over 600 PA's. From there his BA's declined to .292, .145, .264 and .232. He was traded to the Pirates before the 1966 season which coincided with Harry Walker's first full season as Manager.
Walker thought Matty Alou would be a perfect player for implementing his hitting ideas and convinced Matty to swing a heavier bat, chop down on the ball and try to hit it up the middle and to the left side. The results were astounding. Matty hit .342 and won a batting title. He was not just a 1 year wonder either. For the next 3 seasons with the Pirates, Matty did not hit less than .331. You may scoff about empty batting averages but Matty put up fWAR's of 2.8, 3.4, 4.4 and 4.4 during that run. OK that's not exactly MVP range but his highest fWAR with the Giants was 0.9.
Matty Alou was not the only player who Harry "The Hat" helped turn around. Miguel Dilone, another small but fast player saw his BA jump from .220 in 1979 to .341 after working with Harry. Omar Moreno never hit in the .300's, but with Harry's help was able to lift his BA from Mendoza Line territory into the mid .200's which got him on base enough to steal up to 96 bases in a season. Moreno's career had more ups and downs than Matty Alou's which Moreno attributed to his own recidivism away from Harry Walker's approach. Again from the 1983 SI article, he got away from punching the ball up the middle and to the opposite field and tried to pull the ball, with disastrous results. Walker was no longer the Pirates Manager and Moreno made a pilgrimage to Walker's home in Birmingham, AL: "The last 2 years I haven't hit that well because the Pirates tried to change me, so right now I'm trying to remind myself of everything I did in 1979. Walker added, "Instructing a hitter is not so much changing him, but finding a guy's natural style of hitting and, when he gets out of it, trying to get him back into it. Omar needs a few days to get in the groove." Here's another Walker quote: "I'm tired of hearing about pulling the ball. That's misleading young hitters. Every Scout tells them to jerk the ball out. That's asking a kid to do something he can't. If you can't jerk it out, take it to centerfield. Make adjustments." Other hitters Harry Walker worked with who found success included Mookie Wilson, Phil Garner and Terry Puhl.
Harry Walker's approach clearly does not work for everybody. You would not want Willie Mays or Willie McCovey trying to put the ball on the ground and slap it the other way. Walker's approach probably works best for players like Matty Alou and Omar Moreno, lefty hitters with little power but who can run fast enough to beat out groundballs for singles. You also would not want a lineup full of hitters like that, but having 2 or even 3 Matty Alou's or Omar Moreno's in the lineup would make a nice fit for the Giants in AT&T Park which severely suppresses HR's.
The early word on Farhan Zaidi is that he will look in the opposite direction to try to find hitters who will follow the Launch Angle Revolution and get the ball in the air. After years of watching hard hit flyballs die on the warning track and in Triples Alley I wonder how successful that approach will be.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Fantasy Focus: Impact Rookies- Victor Robles
Victor Robles, OF, Nationals. DOB: 5/19/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
2018 AAA: .278/.356/.386, 2 HR, 14 SB, 9.9 BB%, 14.3 K%, 182 PA.
2018 MLB: .288/.348/.525, 3 HR, 3 SB, 6.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 66 PA.
2018 was supposed to be Victor Robles' big rookie season. He's been an elite prospect for several years and had a short callup in 2017. Instead, he spent a significant portion of the season on the DL but shined in a small sample size September callup. The only question marks for Robles in 2019 are health and the unsettled Nationals OF situation which should become much more clear when Bryce Harper signs with them or another team. Assuming Harper goes somewhere else, Robles would be the clear favorite for CF over Michael Taylor with Juan Soto who went roaring past Robles last year taking over in RF.
Although Robles has plenty of power projection, he is currently more of a contact, gap-power hitter with speed to steal bases.
Here is his Steamer projection for 2019:
.273/.334/.416, 13 HR, 28 SB's, 30 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 28 SB, 6.7 BB%, 18.0 K%, 586 PA.
Whether that is rosterable in your fantasy league depends on the size of your league and parameters. He would be very borderline in my 10 team H2H league but the SB's would probably make him a plus on someone's roster. He would obviously be more attractive in larger leagues and leagues with a separate CF category. He should already be owned in deep keeper leagues.
2018 AAA: .278/.356/.386, 2 HR, 14 SB, 9.9 BB%, 14.3 K%, 182 PA.
2018 MLB: .288/.348/.525, 3 HR, 3 SB, 6.1 BB%, 18.2 K%, 66 PA.
2018 was supposed to be Victor Robles' big rookie season. He's been an elite prospect for several years and had a short callup in 2017. Instead, he spent a significant portion of the season on the DL but shined in a small sample size September callup. The only question marks for Robles in 2019 are health and the unsettled Nationals OF situation which should become much more clear when Bryce Harper signs with them or another team. Assuming Harper goes somewhere else, Robles would be the clear favorite for CF over Michael Taylor with Juan Soto who went roaring past Robles last year taking over in RF.
Although Robles has plenty of power projection, he is currently more of a contact, gap-power hitter with speed to steal bases.
Here is his Steamer projection for 2019:
.273/.334/.416, 13 HR, 28 SB's, 30 2B, 4 3B, 13 HR, 28 SB, 6.7 BB%, 18.0 K%, 586 PA.
Whether that is rosterable in your fantasy league depends on the size of your league and parameters. He would be very borderline in my 10 team H2H league but the SB's would probably make him a plus on someone's roster. He would obviously be more attractive in larger leagues and leagues with a separate CF category. He should already be owned in deep keeper leagues.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Braves Sign Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann
The Braves signed two well known veteran players with recent injury histories to 1 year contracts today. The biggest move was signing 3B Josh Donaldson for $23 M. After 5 consecutive seasons of hitting 24 or more HR's with a peak of 41 in 2015, Donaldson's mustered just 8 in 219 PA over 52 games due to injuries in 2018. What happened here is that the GM who brought Donaldson to the Blue Jays, Alex Anthopoulos, is betting on a rebound season and was willing to over pay for 1 year in order to avoid a multi-year risk. It could turn out to be a great move if Donaldson stays healthy and performs as well as he did when on the field in 2018. Worst case scenario is Donaldson is done and they part ways after the season.
The Braves also reunited with one of their old stars, Brian McCann. McCann was also beset by injuries last season and had just 216 PA's. He will be 35 yo next season and his playing time and performance has been slipping over the last 2-3 seasons. The plan is apparently for him to form a L-R platoon with Tyler Flowers. It may not be a strict platoon though as that would give McCann roughly 75% of the starts on the season and he's probably no longer up to that. At any rate, it's essentially a no-risk deal from the Braves standpoint at 1 year/$2 M.
I would say these moves have no impact on the Giants plans as neither player was one the Giants would likely have any interest in.
The Braves also reunited with one of their old stars, Brian McCann. McCann was also beset by injuries last season and had just 216 PA's. He will be 35 yo next season and his playing time and performance has been slipping over the last 2-3 seasons. The plan is apparently for him to form a L-R platoon with Tyler Flowers. It may not be a strict platoon though as that would give McCann roughly 75% of the starts on the season and he's probably no longer up to that. At any rate, it's essentially a no-risk deal from the Braves standpoint at 1 year/$2 M.
I would say these moves have no impact on the Giants plans as neither player was one the Giants would likely have any interest in.
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Adley Rutschman
It might be a bit early in the cycle but I'm itching to dig into the 2019 draft and see who's might be available when the Giants pick at #10 overall(They finished with the 9'th worst record, but the Braves have a compensatory pick at #9 for not signing Carter Stewart last year). The early trend in this cycle is weak pitching, especially at the college level. The hitting is significantly better and fairly balanced between college and HS but probably a bit deeper at the college level. First up: Adley Rutschman.
Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). B-S, T-R. 6'2", 215 lbs.
2017: .234/.322/.306, 10.93 BB%, 15.79 K%, 247 PA.
2018: .408/.505/.628, 22 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 17.21 BB%, 12.99 K%, 308 PA.
To say he had a breakout season in 2018 is an understatement. As for wood bat experience, he hit just .164 in the Cape Cod League in 2017 but hit .355 for Team USA in 2018 so the breakout carried over into the summer. The reversed K/BB is a strongly positive sign.
Rutschman is a big kid who looks like a catcher with a low center of gravity which gives him a strong base. Scouting reports have him as a plus defensive catcher with a cannon for an arm, soft hands and excellent lateral movements behind the plate. At the plate, he's more of a line-drive hitter who is closer to Buster Posey or Joe Mauer than Joey Bart who profiles as more of a pure power hitter, but the power potential is there for Rutschman.
He's the #2 draft prospect on MLB's board and #1 on Fangraphs. The challenge for him is to resist the pressure to improve on a season that is about as good as it gets. We've seen other college juniors stock fall under that pressure. If his 2019 is anything close to 2018, he'll be off the board long before the Giants pick. I've seen comments that the Giants would not be interested because of Joey Bart, but I disagree. You take the best player available regardless of organizational need. Having 2 future all star catchers in the organization is not a bad thing and would eventually work itself out.
Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). B-S, T-R. 6'2", 215 lbs.
2017: .234/.322/.306, 10.93 BB%, 15.79 K%, 247 PA.
2018: .408/.505/.628, 22 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 17.21 BB%, 12.99 K%, 308 PA.
To say he had a breakout season in 2018 is an understatement. As for wood bat experience, he hit just .164 in the Cape Cod League in 2017 but hit .355 for Team USA in 2018 so the breakout carried over into the summer. The reversed K/BB is a strongly positive sign.
Rutschman is a big kid who looks like a catcher with a low center of gravity which gives him a strong base. Scouting reports have him as a plus defensive catcher with a cannon for an arm, soft hands and excellent lateral movements behind the plate. At the plate, he's more of a line-drive hitter who is closer to Buster Posey or Joe Mauer than Joey Bart who profiles as more of a pure power hitter, but the power potential is there for Rutschman.
He's the #2 draft prospect on MLB's board and #1 on Fangraphs. The challenge for him is to resist the pressure to improve on a season that is about as good as it gets. We've seen other college juniors stock fall under that pressure. If his 2019 is anything close to 2018, he'll be off the board long before the Giants pick. I've seen comments that the Giants would not be interested because of Joey Bart, but I disagree. You take the best player available regardless of organizational need. Having 2 future all star catchers in the organization is not a bad thing and would eventually work itself out.
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Free Agent Pitcher
The Giants signed minor league free agent Kieren Lovegrove, RHP. Lovegrove hails from Johannesburg South Africa. He is 24 years old and has spent the last 7 years laboring in the Indians organization. Coincidently, David Laurilia had a feature on him in Fangraphs on 11/18/2018 which is a fun read. It seems that Mr Lovegrove is a bit of a Nuke LaLoosh character who throws very hard but has little idea where the ball is going or why making him a very Giantsy FA pitcher to sign. I guess the more things change, the more they stay the same!
Kieren did have the best results on the field of his career last year working through 3 levels of play, but the wild hair was never too far away from his nose. Here is his combined stat line for 2018:
4-0, 2.73, 59.1 IP, 31 BB, 66 K, 3 Saves.
He seems to be a 2+ pitch pitcher with a FB and Changeup. The + comes in because he throws a 4-seam FB but when it is down in the zone it moves like a 2-seam and when it is up it moves more like a standard 4-seam.
Welcome to the Giants, Kieren Lovegrove!
Kieren did have the best results on the field of his career last year working through 3 levels of play, but the wild hair was never too far away from his nose. Here is his combined stat line for 2018:
4-0, 2.73, 59.1 IP, 31 BB, 66 K, 3 Saves.
He seems to be a 2+ pitch pitcher with a FB and Changeup. The + comes in because he throws a 4-seam FB but when it is down in the zone it moves like a 2-seam and when it is up it moves more like a standard 4-seam.
Welcome to the Giants, Kieren Lovegrove!
Fantasy Focus: Impact Rookies- Eloy Jimenez
Eloy Jimenez, OF, White Sox. DOB: 11/27/1996. B-R, T-R. 6'4", 2015 lbs.
2018 AA: .317/.368/.556, 10 HR, 7.9 BB%, 17.9 K%, GB/FB= 1.00, 228 PA.
2018 AAA: .355/.399/597, 6.1 BB%, 13.2 K%, GB/FB= 1.00, 228 PA.
A couple of years ago, my fantasy baseball league added 2 N/A roster spots which allows you to keep a couple of prospects on your roster without having to drop an active player. Last year, I kept Eloy Jimenez on one of my N/A slots all season to no avail as the White Sox found excuses to keep him on the farm. He probably won't be added in 2019 until after approximately May 1, but he'll be worth the wait whether you have an N/A on your fantasy roster or whether you have to stash him on your bench.
Jimenez does not run or catch particularly well. There is some disagreement from different sources about his arm with Fangraphs rating it a 60 and projecting him as a RF, but MLB Pipleline says his arm has slipped and he's now barely a LF. Nevermind that for fantasy baseball purposes. He's got two tools nobody questions: Hit and Power. It does not matter if he plays LF or 1B or DH, the bat is going to play. Steamer has him projected to hit .293/.342/.502, 23 HR in 2019. It does not hurt that the White Sox crib is hitter-friendly.
The one big question mark is whether he can stay healthy. Last year saw him come to the plate more 456 times which is approximately 100 PA short of a full minor league season and he has visited the DL for 3 consecutive seasons.
2018 AA: .317/.368/.556, 10 HR, 7.9 BB%, 17.9 K%, GB/FB= 1.00, 228 PA.
2018 AAA: .355/.399/597, 6.1 BB%, 13.2 K%, GB/FB= 1.00, 228 PA.
A couple of years ago, my fantasy baseball league added 2 N/A roster spots which allows you to keep a couple of prospects on your roster without having to drop an active player. Last year, I kept Eloy Jimenez on one of my N/A slots all season to no avail as the White Sox found excuses to keep him on the farm. He probably won't be added in 2019 until after approximately May 1, but he'll be worth the wait whether you have an N/A on your fantasy roster or whether you have to stash him on your bench.
Jimenez does not run or catch particularly well. There is some disagreement from different sources about his arm with Fangraphs rating it a 60 and projecting him as a RF, but MLB Pipleline says his arm has slipped and he's now barely a LF. Nevermind that for fantasy baseball purposes. He's got two tools nobody questions: Hit and Power. It does not matter if he plays LF or 1B or DH, the bat is going to play. Steamer has him projected to hit .293/.342/.502, 23 HR in 2019. It does not hurt that the White Sox crib is hitter-friendly.
The one big question mark is whether he can stay healthy. Last year saw him come to the plate more 456 times which is approximately 100 PA short of a full minor league season and he has visited the DL for 3 consecutive seasons.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2017 Giants Draft Review(Rounds 2-40)
So let's finally catch up with where the Giants later round picks from 2017 stand. With 3 HS draftees at the top, this class will take longer to make final judgement. List is by round:
2. Jacob Gonzalez, 3B, HS: Low A- .227/.296/.331, 8 HR, 7 SB, 6.1 BB%, 21.1 K%, 507 PA. First full seasons have been known to grind down some pretty good HS draftees. Gonzalez hit a decent .252 in the first half but collapsed to .199 in the second half. I had not heard of him before draft day even though he is Luis Gonzalez' kid. I liked Mark Vientos who the Mets took 1 pick later. After that, it's pretty tough to make a case the Giants could have drafted better here. The problem for Jacob going forward is the Giants have some pretty good 3B prospects behind him who will be hunting for playing time. Grade C.
3. Seth Corry, LHP, HS: R- 3-1, 2.61, 38 IP, 9.95 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. Short Season- 1-2, 5.49, 19.2 IP, 7.78 K/9, 6.86 BB/9. Corry has shown dominance when he controls the strike zone but has a major wild hair that can get up his nose. He's going to be a project. Grade C-.
4. Garrett Cave, RHP, College(Tampa): Low A- 6-10, 5.20, 116 IP, 9.16 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.77. Hard thrower with strong K and GB rates. Another Giants project to tame his wildness. Grade C.
5. Jason Bahr, RHP, College(Central Florida): Low A- 6-4, 2.75, 68.2 IP, 11.53 K/9, 2.75 BB/9. A+(Giants)- 2-0, 1.69, 16 IP, 8.44 K/9, 1.13 BB/9. A+(Rangers)- 2-4, 5.80, 35.2 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.03 BB/9. Was off to a nice start to his pro career with the Giants but was included in a trade to the Rangers as the price of taking Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin and their contracts off the Giants CBT ledger. If there was one move that could/should have cost Bobby Evans his job, it was signing Austin Jackson, which never made sense from the get-go. Grade B.
6. Bryce Johnson, OF, College(Sam Houston St.): A+- .249/.339/.324, HR, 31 SB, 10.6 BB%, 22.7 K%. No power but can draw a walk, steal a base and cover ground in CF. Grade C+.
7. Logan Harasta, RHP, College(SUNY Buffalo): R- 1-1, 1.10, 16.1 IP, 15.43 K/9, 2.76 BB/9. Jumbo body. Not sure what he was doing in rookie ball. Maybe coming off some sort of injury? Grade C.
8. John Gavin, LHP, College(Cal St. Fullerton): Low A- 5-5, 2.08, 95 IP, 10.52 K/9, 3.51 BB/9. A+- 1-2, 5.60, 27.1 IP, 9.22 K/9, 3.29 BB/9. Another big body. Dominant in Low A which is too low a level for a major college draftee. Peripherals in SJ look better than ERA. Grade C+.
9. Aaron Phillips, RHP, College(St Bonaventure): Low A- 6-7, 3.72, 101.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 1.42 BB/9. Very nice numbers but placement very conservative. Grade C+.
10. Rob Calabrese, C, College(Illinois-Chicago): Low A- .193/.283/.320, 5 HR, 3 SB, 8.4 BB%, 29.5 K%, 227 PA. Disappointing numbers for a prospect who put up strong offensive numbers in the same college conference as Daulton Varsho. Grade D.
11. Doug Still, LHP, College(Missouri St): Low A- 0-0, 3.00, 3 IP, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. A+- 0-0, 7.71, 4.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Short Season- 2-0, 2.84, 19 IP, 9.95 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Hard to know what to make of these numbers spread out over several levels. Peripherals look good, though. Grade C? Breakout candidate for 2019?
12. Aaron Bond, OF, JC: Short Season- .268/.320/.585, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.0 BB%, 28.9 K%, 201 PA. Low A- .205/.301/.218, 3 SB, 12.8 BB%, 30.9 K%, 94 PA. 5-tool prospect with some pop in his bat. K rate is worrisome. Struggled in Augusta(what hitter doesn't?). Thrived in Salem-Keizer(what hitter doesn't?) Has to get over the Augusta hump. Grade C+.
13. Tyler Schimpf, RHP, College(Texas): Low A- 4-4, 5.45, 38 IP, 10.42 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. A+- 0-0, 3.86, 2.1 IP, 7.71 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Peripherals better than ERA. Grade C.
15. Orlando Garcia, SS, College(Texas Tech): Low A- .243/.342/.350, 8 HR, 9 SB, 11.4 BB%, 27.3 K%, 501 PA. Conservative placement. A bit of pop, a bit of speed, strong BB%, high K's. Grade C+.
16. John Russell, RHP, College(Connecticut): Low A- 8-5, 2.49, 61.1 IP, 10.57 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 7 Saves. A+- 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 11.25 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Could be a fast mover on the reliever track. Grade C+.
19. Frankie Tostado, 1B/OF, JC: R- .281/.332/.415, 3 HR, 2 SB, 7.0 BB%, 12.3 K%. Pro debut in rookie ball at age 20. Nice numbers but at a low level in a strong hitting environment. Grade C+. Grade A name, though.
21. Logan Baldwin, OF, College(Georgia Southern): Low A- .249/.310/.389, 6 HR, 26 SB, 5.9 BB%, 31.4 K%, 474 PA. Like the SB's but the rest of the line is scary. Grade C-.
22. Greg Jacknewitz, LHP, College(Xavier): Short Season- 4-3, 6.88, 53.2 IP, 7.55 K/9, 3.35 BB/9. Jacknewitz has yet to show he can compete with pro hitters at any level. Grade D-.
23. Shane Matheny, 3B, College(Washington St): Low A- .205/.292/.287, 6 HR, 9.9 BB%, 30.0 K%, 363 PA. Disappointing numbers from a guy who seemed to have strong peripherals up to this season. Not sure where he fits from here. Grade D.
24. Nico Giarratano, SS, College(San Francisco): Short Season- .269/.337/.421, 5 HR, 9.3 BB%, 21.1 K%, 193 PA. Hit near the Mendoza line in college, but the bat was surprisingly good here. S-K though. Grade C+.
25. Franklin Van Gurp, RHP, College(Florida International): Low A- 4-0, 1.77, 40.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 3.54 BB/9. A+- 1-0, 6.95, 22 IP, 13.50 K/9, 8.18 BB/9. Struggled after promotion to SJ. K rate remains strong, though. Grade C.
26. Kyle McPherson, SS, College(James Madison): Short Season- .314/.370/.493, 7 HR, 7.4 BB%, 14.1 K%, 311 PA. Moved to 2B. Nice hitting line in a low level, hitter friendly venue. Grade C+.
28. Peter Lannoo, RHP, College(Cornell): Low A- 1-2, 3.38, 18.2 IP, 9.16 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. A+- 1-7, 4.19, 58 IP, 6.05 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 2 Saves. He also pitched 1.2 shutout innings for AA Richmond. Unimpressive numbers at age appropriate level(A+). Grade C.
29. Frank Rubio, RHP, College(Florida): Low A- 0-1, 1.55, 29 IP, 9.93 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 10 Saves. A+- 2-2, 5.52, 31 IP, 6.68 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 9 Saves. Also pitched 4 innings in AA. Seems to be on the Closer track, but peripherals in A+ not closer-like. Grade C+.
34. Conner Nurse, RHP, HS: R- 1-1, 3.23, 53 IP, 9.51 K/9, 4.42 BB/9. Tall kid at 6'6". Kid is a project but love the upside out of round 34. Grade B.
35. Dalton Combs, OF, College(Huntington(Ind)): .318/.375/.512, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, 144 PA. College corner player. Was S-K's hottest hitter down the stretch, but at age 23. Grade C+.
36. Joey Marciano, LHP, College(Southern Illinois): Low A- 4-3, 2.58, 80.1 IP, 7.95 K/9, 2.46 BB/9. A+- 1-4, 8.33, 31.1 IP, 7.47 K/9, 4.31 BB/9. You can really see the difference between Augusta and San Jose as time and again, pitchers put up great numbers in Augusta then faceplant in SJ. Grade C.
37. Andy Rohloff, RHP, College(Central Florida): R- 1-1, 3.00, 24 IP, 10.50 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. Should not be in rookie ball at age 22. Grade C-.
I did not realize the Giants drafted Keaton Winn and Blake Rivera in this draft. They did not sign and were re-drafted by the Giants in much higher rounds with the requisite increase in signing bonuses.
There is still a lot of upside in this draft, especially from the HS kids, but there is also the possibility that the entire draft could end up as a washout.
2. Jacob Gonzalez, 3B, HS: Low A- .227/.296/.331, 8 HR, 7 SB, 6.1 BB%, 21.1 K%, 507 PA. First full seasons have been known to grind down some pretty good HS draftees. Gonzalez hit a decent .252 in the first half but collapsed to .199 in the second half. I had not heard of him before draft day even though he is Luis Gonzalez' kid. I liked Mark Vientos who the Mets took 1 pick later. After that, it's pretty tough to make a case the Giants could have drafted better here. The problem for Jacob going forward is the Giants have some pretty good 3B prospects behind him who will be hunting for playing time. Grade C.
3. Seth Corry, LHP, HS: R- 3-1, 2.61, 38 IP, 9.95 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. Short Season- 1-2, 5.49, 19.2 IP, 7.78 K/9, 6.86 BB/9. Corry has shown dominance when he controls the strike zone but has a major wild hair that can get up his nose. He's going to be a project. Grade C-.
4. Garrett Cave, RHP, College(Tampa): Low A- 6-10, 5.20, 116 IP, 9.16 K/9, 5.20 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.77. Hard thrower with strong K and GB rates. Another Giants project to tame his wildness. Grade C.
5. Jason Bahr, RHP, College(Central Florida): Low A- 6-4, 2.75, 68.2 IP, 11.53 K/9, 2.75 BB/9. A+(Giants)- 2-0, 1.69, 16 IP, 8.44 K/9, 1.13 BB/9. A+(Rangers)- 2-4, 5.80, 35.2 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.03 BB/9. Was off to a nice start to his pro career with the Giants but was included in a trade to the Rangers as the price of taking Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin and their contracts off the Giants CBT ledger. If there was one move that could/should have cost Bobby Evans his job, it was signing Austin Jackson, which never made sense from the get-go. Grade B.
6. Bryce Johnson, OF, College(Sam Houston St.): A+- .249/.339/.324, HR, 31 SB, 10.6 BB%, 22.7 K%. No power but can draw a walk, steal a base and cover ground in CF. Grade C+.
7. Logan Harasta, RHP, College(SUNY Buffalo): R- 1-1, 1.10, 16.1 IP, 15.43 K/9, 2.76 BB/9. Jumbo body. Not sure what he was doing in rookie ball. Maybe coming off some sort of injury? Grade C.
8. John Gavin, LHP, College(Cal St. Fullerton): Low A- 5-5, 2.08, 95 IP, 10.52 K/9, 3.51 BB/9. A+- 1-2, 5.60, 27.1 IP, 9.22 K/9, 3.29 BB/9. Another big body. Dominant in Low A which is too low a level for a major college draftee. Peripherals in SJ look better than ERA. Grade C+.
9. Aaron Phillips, RHP, College(St Bonaventure): Low A- 6-7, 3.72, 101.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 1.42 BB/9. Very nice numbers but placement very conservative. Grade C+.
10. Rob Calabrese, C, College(Illinois-Chicago): Low A- .193/.283/.320, 5 HR, 3 SB, 8.4 BB%, 29.5 K%, 227 PA. Disappointing numbers for a prospect who put up strong offensive numbers in the same college conference as Daulton Varsho. Grade D.
11. Doug Still, LHP, College(Missouri St): Low A- 0-0, 3.00, 3 IP, 3.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. A+- 0-0, 7.71, 4.2 IP, 13.50 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. Short Season- 2-0, 2.84, 19 IP, 9.95 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Hard to know what to make of these numbers spread out over several levels. Peripherals look good, though. Grade C? Breakout candidate for 2019?
12. Aaron Bond, OF, JC: Short Season- .268/.320/.585, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.0 BB%, 28.9 K%, 201 PA. Low A- .205/.301/.218, 3 SB, 12.8 BB%, 30.9 K%, 94 PA. 5-tool prospect with some pop in his bat. K rate is worrisome. Struggled in Augusta(what hitter doesn't?). Thrived in Salem-Keizer(what hitter doesn't?) Has to get over the Augusta hump. Grade C+.
13. Tyler Schimpf, RHP, College(Texas): Low A- 4-4, 5.45, 38 IP, 10.42 K/9, 4.03 BB/9. A+- 0-0, 3.86, 2.1 IP, 7.71 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Peripherals better than ERA. Grade C.
15. Orlando Garcia, SS, College(Texas Tech): Low A- .243/.342/.350, 8 HR, 9 SB, 11.4 BB%, 27.3 K%, 501 PA. Conservative placement. A bit of pop, a bit of speed, strong BB%, high K's. Grade C+.
16. John Russell, RHP, College(Connecticut): Low A- 8-5, 2.49, 61.1 IP, 10.57 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 7 Saves. A+- 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 11.25 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Could be a fast mover on the reliever track. Grade C+.
19. Frankie Tostado, 1B/OF, JC: R- .281/.332/.415, 3 HR, 2 SB, 7.0 BB%, 12.3 K%. Pro debut in rookie ball at age 20. Nice numbers but at a low level in a strong hitting environment. Grade C+. Grade A name, though.
21. Logan Baldwin, OF, College(Georgia Southern): Low A- .249/.310/.389, 6 HR, 26 SB, 5.9 BB%, 31.4 K%, 474 PA. Like the SB's but the rest of the line is scary. Grade C-.
22. Greg Jacknewitz, LHP, College(Xavier): Short Season- 4-3, 6.88, 53.2 IP, 7.55 K/9, 3.35 BB/9. Jacknewitz has yet to show he can compete with pro hitters at any level. Grade D-.
23. Shane Matheny, 3B, College(Washington St): Low A- .205/.292/.287, 6 HR, 9.9 BB%, 30.0 K%, 363 PA. Disappointing numbers from a guy who seemed to have strong peripherals up to this season. Not sure where he fits from here. Grade D.
24. Nico Giarratano, SS, College(San Francisco): Short Season- .269/.337/.421, 5 HR, 9.3 BB%, 21.1 K%, 193 PA. Hit near the Mendoza line in college, but the bat was surprisingly good here. S-K though. Grade C+.
25. Franklin Van Gurp, RHP, College(Florida International): Low A- 4-0, 1.77, 40.2 IP, 10.62 K/9, 3.54 BB/9. A+- 1-0, 6.95, 22 IP, 13.50 K/9, 8.18 BB/9. Struggled after promotion to SJ. K rate remains strong, though. Grade C.
26. Kyle McPherson, SS, College(James Madison): Short Season- .314/.370/.493, 7 HR, 7.4 BB%, 14.1 K%, 311 PA. Moved to 2B. Nice hitting line in a low level, hitter friendly venue. Grade C+.
28. Peter Lannoo, RHP, College(Cornell): Low A- 1-2, 3.38, 18.2 IP, 9.16 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. A+- 1-7, 4.19, 58 IP, 6.05 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 2 Saves. He also pitched 1.2 shutout innings for AA Richmond. Unimpressive numbers at age appropriate level(A+). Grade C.
29. Frank Rubio, RHP, College(Florida): Low A- 0-1, 1.55, 29 IP, 9.93 K/9, 1.86 BB/9, 10 Saves. A+- 2-2, 5.52, 31 IP, 6.68 K/9, 2.32 BB/9, 9 Saves. Also pitched 4 innings in AA. Seems to be on the Closer track, but peripherals in A+ not closer-like. Grade C+.
34. Conner Nurse, RHP, HS: R- 1-1, 3.23, 53 IP, 9.51 K/9, 4.42 BB/9. Tall kid at 6'6". Kid is a project but love the upside out of round 34. Grade B.
35. Dalton Combs, OF, College(Huntington(Ind)): .318/.375/.512, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, 144 PA. College corner player. Was S-K's hottest hitter down the stretch, but at age 23. Grade C+.
36. Joey Marciano, LHP, College(Southern Illinois): Low A- 4-3, 2.58, 80.1 IP, 7.95 K/9, 2.46 BB/9. A+- 1-4, 8.33, 31.1 IP, 7.47 K/9, 4.31 BB/9. You can really see the difference between Augusta and San Jose as time and again, pitchers put up great numbers in Augusta then faceplant in SJ. Grade C.
37. Andy Rohloff, RHP, College(Central Florida): R- 1-1, 3.00, 24 IP, 10.50 K/9, 2.25 BB/9. Should not be in rookie ball at age 22. Grade C-.
I did not realize the Giants drafted Keaton Winn and Blake Rivera in this draft. They did not sign and were re-drafted by the Giants in much higher rounds with the requisite increase in signing bonuses.
There is still a lot of upside in this draft, especially from the HS kids, but there is also the possibility that the entire draft could end up as a washout.
Scouting the Draft; 2017 Draft Review(Selected Later Picks)
Before run down the remainder of the Giants 2017 draft, let's take a look at selected picks after round 1 with emphasis on players we scouted.
32. Jeter Downs, Reds, SS, HS: Low A- .257/.351/.402, 13 HR, 37 SB, 9.9 BB%, 19.7 K%. 524 PA. Solid mix of power, speed and plate discipline. Grade B+.
33. Kevin Merrell, A's, SS, College(South Florida): A+- .267/.308/.326, 5 SB, 5.2 BB%, 22.8 K%, 290 PA. Disappointing numbers. Grade C-.
35. Brent Rooker, Twins, OF, College(Mississippi St.): AA- .254/.333/.465, 22 HR, 6 SB, 9.9 BB%, 26.4 K%, 568 PA. Aggressive placement first full season with solid numbers. I had him as the best power bat in the draft and would not have been disappointed if the Giants took him in the first round despite his corner profile. Could be hitting dingers for the Twins by midseason. Grade A.
36. Brian Miller, Marlins, OF, College(North Carolina): A+: .324/.358/.398, 19 SB, 5.1 BB%, 9.8 K%, 276 PA. AA- .267/.319/.313, 21 SB, 6.3 BB%, 13.6 K%. AA numbers were down a tick, but it's an aggressive promotion and again, midseason promotions are tough. Grade B+.
38. Stuart Fairchild, Reds, OF, College(Wake Forest): Low A- .277/.377/.460, 7 HR, 17 SB, 11.2 BB%, 26 K%, 276 PA. A+- .250/.306/.350, 2 HR, 6 SB, 7.0 BB%, 26 K%, 242 PA. Fair numbers but conservative placement. Grade C.
39. Luis Campusano, Padres, C, HS: Low A- .288/.345/.365, 3 HR, 6.7 BB%, 15.1 K%, 284 PA. Giants were rumored to be in on this kid possibly has high as round 1. Giants fan because he's from Augusta, GA and the Greenjackets. More likely they were looking at him for round 2. He didn't get to them as the Padres grabbed him. Profiled as a power bat with contact issues. These numbers are the opposite of that. Grade B.
41. Drew Waters, Braves, OF, HS: Low A- .303/.353/.513, 9 HR, 20 SB, 5.8 BB%, 19.7 K%, 365 PA. A+- .268/.316/.374, 3 SB, 6.0 BB%, 24.8 K%, 133 PA. Fine numbers in the SAL. Aggressive promotion. Better HS OF prospect than Heliot Ramos? He is a year older. Grade B+.
42. Greg Deichmann, A's, OF, College(LSU): A+- .199/.276/.392, 6 HR, 9.2 BB%, 34.1 K%. Grade D.
47. Griffin Canning, Angels, RHP, College(UCLA): A+- 0-0, 0.00, 8.2 IP, 12.46 K/9, 3.12 BB/9. AA- 1-0, 1.97, 45.2 IP, 9.66 K/9, 3.74 BB/9. AAA- 3-3, 5.49, 59 IP, 9.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9. Classic polished college pitcher. I saw him pitch in the first game of the season against the SJ Giants. He was dominant. Moved up quickly all the way to AAA. Got hit hard there, but it's the PCL and his FIP and xFIP were lower than his ERA. Could make his MLB debut in 2019. Grade A-.
50. Calvin Mitchell, Pirates, OF, HS: Low A- .280/.344/.427, 10 HR, 4 SB, 8.3 BB%, 22 K%, 495 PA. I have a rooting interest in Calvin as he is related to my cousin through marriage. Solid numbers in the age appropriate SAL. Grade B.
51. Joe Dunand, Marlins, 3B, College(North Carolina St): A+: .263/.326/.391, 7 HR, 7.3 BB%, 19.8 K%, 273 PA. AA- .212/.276/.369, 7 HR, 6.7 BB%, 29.7 K%, 239 PA. Has gotten some ink for being A-Rod's nephew. Fair A+ numbers. Took a dip in AA, but that's an aggressive promotion. Think of it as getting a head start on AA for 2019. Grade C.
52. MJ Melendez, Royals, C, HS: Low A- .251/.322/.492, 19 HR, 4 SB, 9.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, 472 PA. Strong power numbers for a HS draftee in their first full season. Grade B+.
53. Joe Perez, Astros, 3B, HS: R- .364/.500/.364, 14 PA. Light tower power and can also pitch. Made a headline or two before the draft for hitting a ball into a cloud and nobody saw it come down! Late start on pro career due to TJ surgery. Grade- Incomplete.
54. Matt Sauer, Yankees, RHP, HS: Short Season- 3-6, 3.90, 67 IP, 6.04 K/9, 2.42 BB/9. California kid who I liked before the draft. Pedestrian K rate. Grade C.
55. Sam Carlson, Mariners, RHP, HS: DNP. Kind of a carbon copy of Matt Sauer. Missed the 2018 season due to TJ. Grade Incomplete.
56. Corbin Martin, Astros, RHP, College(Texas A&M): A+- 2-0, 0.00, 19 IP, 12.32 K/9, 3.32 BB/9. AA- 7-2, 2.97, 103 IP, 8.39 K/9, 2.45 BB/9. Hard thrower. Pitched relief in junior season of college. Was rated much higher on some pre-draft boards. Great results so far. Grade A-.
59. Mark Vientos, Mets, SS, HS: R- .287/.389/.489, 11 HR, 14.1 BB%, 16.4 K%, 262 PA. Nice numbers but rookie ball. Grade C+.
61. Hagen Danner, Blue Jays, C, HS: R- .279/.409/.432, 2 HR, 14.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 137 PA. 2-way player in HS. I thought he was a bit overrated. Nice numbers but should be in full season league. Grade C+.
63. Cole Brannen, Red Sox, OF, HS: Short Season- .181/.276/.205, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 32.0 K%, 147 PA. Low A- .157/.246/.205, 9 SB, 9.2 BB%, 30.3 K%. Sweet swinging lefty hitter in HS. Struggling to get traction as a pro. Grade D.
64. Quentin Holmes, Indians, OF, HS: R- .158/.304/.211, 2 SB, 23 PA. Reputed to be the fastest player in the draft. Missed most of the season with a hammy injury. Grade Incomplete.
65. Wil Crowe, Nationals, RHP, College(South Carolina): A+: 11-0, 2.69, 87.0 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.10 BB/9. AA- 0-5, 6.15, 26.1 IP, 5.13 K/9, 5.47 BB/9. Pretty good numbers in A+ ball but hit a wall after aggressive promotion to AA. Grade B-.
66. Hans Crouse, Rangers, RHP, HS: Short Season- 5-1, 2.37, 38 IP, 11.13 K/9, 2.61 BB/9. Low A- 0-2, 2.70, 16.2 IP, 8.10 K/9, 4.32 BB/9. Not quite as good after promotion to low A. Grade B-.
67. Cory Abbott, Cubs, RHP, Collge(Loyola Marymount): Low A- 4-1, 2.47, 47.1 IP, 10.84 K/9, 2.47 BB/9. A+- 4-5, 2.53, 67.2 IP, 9.84 K/9, 3.46 BB/9. Grade B+.
68. Daulton Varsho, D'Backs, C, College(Wisconsin-Milwaukee): A+- .286/.363/.451, 11 HR, 19 SB, 8.8 BB%, 20.8 K%. Nice numbers for a small conference college catcher. The SB's are particularly eye-opening. Grade B+.
72. Conner Uselton, Pirates, OF, HS: R- .225/.280/.250, 6.9 BB%, 17.7 K%, 175 PA. I had this kid ranked pretty high. Slowed by injuries. Grade D.
74. Zac Lowther, Orioles, LHP, College(Xavier): Low A- 3-1, 1.16, 31 IP, 14.81 K/9, 2.61 BB/9. A+- 5-3, 2.53, 92.2 IP, 9.71 K/9, 2.53 BB/9. Small conference lefty who was a late riser on draft boards. Strong start to pro career. Grade B+.
76. Blayne Enlow, Twins, RHP, HS: Low A- 3-5, 3.26, 94 IP, 6.80 K/9, 3.35 BB/9. Strong class for prep pitching. Solid start to pro career but K rates could be higher. Grade B-.
77. Jacob Heatherly, Reds, LHP, HS: R- 1-5, 5.82, 38.2 IP, 11.41 K/9, 9.31 BB/9. Seemed like he was advanced for a HS pitcher. Guess not. Grade D.
81. Nick Allen, A's, SS, HS: Low A- .239/.301/.302, 24 SB, 6.6 BB%, 16.6 K%, 512 PA. Diminutive stature. Reps as a defensive SS. Showed some speed. Grade C+.
83. Connor Seabold, Phillies, RHP, College(Cal St. Fullerton): A+- 4-4, 3.77, 71.2 IP, 8.54 K/9, 1.75 BB/9. AA- 1-4, 4.91, 58.2 IP, 9.82 K/9, 2.91 BB/9. Aggressive promotion to AA. High floor college pitcher. Grade B+.
84. KJ Harrison, Brewers, C, College(Oregon St.): Low A- .228/.298/.384, 12 HR, 8.4 BB%, 31.5 K%, 466 PA. Grade C.
97. Quinn Brodey, Mets, OF, College(Stanford): Low A- .217/.287/.389, 10 HR, 7 SB, 7.5 BB%, 26.7 K%. A+- .245/.313/.382, 3 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 112 PA. Grade C.
100. Connor Wong, Dodgers, C, College(Houston): A+- .269/.350/.480, 19 HR, 6 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32 K%, 431 PA. 3 true outcomes college catching prospect. Grade B.
105. Keegan Thompson, Cubs, RHP, College(Auburn): A+- 3-3, 3.19, 67.2 IP, 8.11 K/9, 1.73 BB/9. AA- 6-3, 4.06, 62 IP, 7.84 K/9, 3.05 BB/9. Another polished college pitcher. Made AA. Grade B.
119. Colton Hock, Marlins, RHP, College(Stanford): Low A- 9-8, 4.45, 91 IP, 7.62 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. At one point as being touted as a first rounder. Stock slipped badly during his junior season when he pitched mostly out of the bullpen for Stanford. Decent numbers here, but level is too low for pitcher drafted out of a major conference. Grade C.
120. Michael Gigliotti, Royals, OF, College(Lipscomb): .235/.435/.471, 24 PA. Missed most of 2018 season with a ACL injury. Grade Incomplete.
161. Alex Scherff, Red Sox, RHP, HS: R- 0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 5.40 K/9, 1.80 BB/9. Low A- 1-5, 4.98, 7.06 K/9, 3.18 BB/9. I had Scherff ranked as a borderline first rounder. I might have been a big high on him. Grade C-.
166. Ricky De La Torre, Twins, SS, HS: R- .254/.328/.396, 4 HR, SB, 7.9 BB%, 27.5 K%, 159 PA. I really liked what I saw of this kid in scouting videos. Appy League is an advanced version of rookie league. He's a project and not likely to stick at SS. Grade C.
207: Evan Skoug, White Sox, C, College(TCU): Low A- .192/.283/.299, 5 HR, 4 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, 311 PA. The bat has to play for this defensively challenged college catcher. Unfortunately, he's struggled with the bat since the beginning of his junior season in college. Grade D.
210: Brewer Hicklen, Royals, OF, College(Alabaman-Birmingham): Low A- .307/.378/.552, 17 HR, 29 SB, 6.9 BB%, 28.2 K%, 347 PA. A+- .211/.263/.310, HR, 6 SB, 5.1 BB%, 33.3 K%, 78 PA. Stumbled in a late season promotion to A+ which should be his age appropriate level. Grade B-.
261. Jared Poche, A's, LHP, College(LSU): Low A- 8-6, 4.41, 130.2 IP, 7.23 K/9, 2.34 BB/9. Ultimate polished college lefty. Pedestrian numbers at too low a level. Grade C.
32. Jeter Downs, Reds, SS, HS: Low A- .257/.351/.402, 13 HR, 37 SB, 9.9 BB%, 19.7 K%. 524 PA. Solid mix of power, speed and plate discipline. Grade B+.
33. Kevin Merrell, A's, SS, College(South Florida): A+- .267/.308/.326, 5 SB, 5.2 BB%, 22.8 K%, 290 PA. Disappointing numbers. Grade C-.
35. Brent Rooker, Twins, OF, College(Mississippi St.): AA- .254/.333/.465, 22 HR, 6 SB, 9.9 BB%, 26.4 K%, 568 PA. Aggressive placement first full season with solid numbers. I had him as the best power bat in the draft and would not have been disappointed if the Giants took him in the first round despite his corner profile. Could be hitting dingers for the Twins by midseason. Grade A.
36. Brian Miller, Marlins, OF, College(North Carolina): A+: .324/.358/.398, 19 SB, 5.1 BB%, 9.8 K%, 276 PA. AA- .267/.319/.313, 21 SB, 6.3 BB%, 13.6 K%. AA numbers were down a tick, but it's an aggressive promotion and again, midseason promotions are tough. Grade B+.
38. Stuart Fairchild, Reds, OF, College(Wake Forest): Low A- .277/.377/.460, 7 HR, 17 SB, 11.2 BB%, 26 K%, 276 PA. A+- .250/.306/.350, 2 HR, 6 SB, 7.0 BB%, 26 K%, 242 PA. Fair numbers but conservative placement. Grade C.
39. Luis Campusano, Padres, C, HS: Low A- .288/.345/.365, 3 HR, 6.7 BB%, 15.1 K%, 284 PA. Giants were rumored to be in on this kid possibly has high as round 1. Giants fan because he's from Augusta, GA and the Greenjackets. More likely they were looking at him for round 2. He didn't get to them as the Padres grabbed him. Profiled as a power bat with contact issues. These numbers are the opposite of that. Grade B.
41. Drew Waters, Braves, OF, HS: Low A- .303/.353/.513, 9 HR, 20 SB, 5.8 BB%, 19.7 K%, 365 PA. A+- .268/.316/.374, 3 SB, 6.0 BB%, 24.8 K%, 133 PA. Fine numbers in the SAL. Aggressive promotion. Better HS OF prospect than Heliot Ramos? He is a year older. Grade B+.
42. Greg Deichmann, A's, OF, College(LSU): A+- .199/.276/.392, 6 HR, 9.2 BB%, 34.1 K%. Grade D.
47. Griffin Canning, Angels, RHP, College(UCLA): A+- 0-0, 0.00, 8.2 IP, 12.46 K/9, 3.12 BB/9. AA- 1-0, 1.97, 45.2 IP, 9.66 K/9, 3.74 BB/9. AAA- 3-3, 5.49, 59 IP, 9.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9. Classic polished college pitcher. I saw him pitch in the first game of the season against the SJ Giants. He was dominant. Moved up quickly all the way to AAA. Got hit hard there, but it's the PCL and his FIP and xFIP were lower than his ERA. Could make his MLB debut in 2019. Grade A-.
50. Calvin Mitchell, Pirates, OF, HS: Low A- .280/.344/.427, 10 HR, 4 SB, 8.3 BB%, 22 K%, 495 PA. I have a rooting interest in Calvin as he is related to my cousin through marriage. Solid numbers in the age appropriate SAL. Grade B.
51. Joe Dunand, Marlins, 3B, College(North Carolina St): A+: .263/.326/.391, 7 HR, 7.3 BB%, 19.8 K%, 273 PA. AA- .212/.276/.369, 7 HR, 6.7 BB%, 29.7 K%, 239 PA. Has gotten some ink for being A-Rod's nephew. Fair A+ numbers. Took a dip in AA, but that's an aggressive promotion. Think of it as getting a head start on AA for 2019. Grade C.
52. MJ Melendez, Royals, C, HS: Low A- .251/.322/.492, 19 HR, 4 SB, 9.1 BB%, 30.3 K%, 472 PA. Strong power numbers for a HS draftee in their first full season. Grade B+.
53. Joe Perez, Astros, 3B, HS: R- .364/.500/.364, 14 PA. Light tower power and can also pitch. Made a headline or two before the draft for hitting a ball into a cloud and nobody saw it come down! Late start on pro career due to TJ surgery. Grade- Incomplete.
54. Matt Sauer, Yankees, RHP, HS: Short Season- 3-6, 3.90, 67 IP, 6.04 K/9, 2.42 BB/9. California kid who I liked before the draft. Pedestrian K rate. Grade C.
55. Sam Carlson, Mariners, RHP, HS: DNP. Kind of a carbon copy of Matt Sauer. Missed the 2018 season due to TJ. Grade Incomplete.
56. Corbin Martin, Astros, RHP, College(Texas A&M): A+- 2-0, 0.00, 19 IP, 12.32 K/9, 3.32 BB/9. AA- 7-2, 2.97, 103 IP, 8.39 K/9, 2.45 BB/9. Hard thrower. Pitched relief in junior season of college. Was rated much higher on some pre-draft boards. Great results so far. Grade A-.
59. Mark Vientos, Mets, SS, HS: R- .287/.389/.489, 11 HR, 14.1 BB%, 16.4 K%, 262 PA. Nice numbers but rookie ball. Grade C+.
61. Hagen Danner, Blue Jays, C, HS: R- .279/.409/.432, 2 HR, 14.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 137 PA. 2-way player in HS. I thought he was a bit overrated. Nice numbers but should be in full season league. Grade C+.
63. Cole Brannen, Red Sox, OF, HS: Short Season- .181/.276/.205, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 32.0 K%, 147 PA. Low A- .157/.246/.205, 9 SB, 9.2 BB%, 30.3 K%. Sweet swinging lefty hitter in HS. Struggling to get traction as a pro. Grade D.
64. Quentin Holmes, Indians, OF, HS: R- .158/.304/.211, 2 SB, 23 PA. Reputed to be the fastest player in the draft. Missed most of the season with a hammy injury. Grade Incomplete.
65. Wil Crowe, Nationals, RHP, College(South Carolina): A+: 11-0, 2.69, 87.0 IP, 8.07 K/9, 3.10 BB/9. AA- 0-5, 6.15, 26.1 IP, 5.13 K/9, 5.47 BB/9. Pretty good numbers in A+ ball but hit a wall after aggressive promotion to AA. Grade B-.
66. Hans Crouse, Rangers, RHP, HS: Short Season- 5-1, 2.37, 38 IP, 11.13 K/9, 2.61 BB/9. Low A- 0-2, 2.70, 16.2 IP, 8.10 K/9, 4.32 BB/9. Not quite as good after promotion to low A. Grade B-.
67. Cory Abbott, Cubs, RHP, Collge(Loyola Marymount): Low A- 4-1, 2.47, 47.1 IP, 10.84 K/9, 2.47 BB/9. A+- 4-5, 2.53, 67.2 IP, 9.84 K/9, 3.46 BB/9. Grade B+.
68. Daulton Varsho, D'Backs, C, College(Wisconsin-Milwaukee): A+- .286/.363/.451, 11 HR, 19 SB, 8.8 BB%, 20.8 K%. Nice numbers for a small conference college catcher. The SB's are particularly eye-opening. Grade B+.
72. Conner Uselton, Pirates, OF, HS: R- .225/.280/.250, 6.9 BB%, 17.7 K%, 175 PA. I had this kid ranked pretty high. Slowed by injuries. Grade D.
74. Zac Lowther, Orioles, LHP, College(Xavier): Low A- 3-1, 1.16, 31 IP, 14.81 K/9, 2.61 BB/9. A+- 5-3, 2.53, 92.2 IP, 9.71 K/9, 2.53 BB/9. Small conference lefty who was a late riser on draft boards. Strong start to pro career. Grade B+.
76. Blayne Enlow, Twins, RHP, HS: Low A- 3-5, 3.26, 94 IP, 6.80 K/9, 3.35 BB/9. Strong class for prep pitching. Solid start to pro career but K rates could be higher. Grade B-.
77. Jacob Heatherly, Reds, LHP, HS: R- 1-5, 5.82, 38.2 IP, 11.41 K/9, 9.31 BB/9. Seemed like he was advanced for a HS pitcher. Guess not. Grade D.
81. Nick Allen, A's, SS, HS: Low A- .239/.301/.302, 24 SB, 6.6 BB%, 16.6 K%, 512 PA. Diminutive stature. Reps as a defensive SS. Showed some speed. Grade C+.
83. Connor Seabold, Phillies, RHP, College(Cal St. Fullerton): A+- 4-4, 3.77, 71.2 IP, 8.54 K/9, 1.75 BB/9. AA- 1-4, 4.91, 58.2 IP, 9.82 K/9, 2.91 BB/9. Aggressive promotion to AA. High floor college pitcher. Grade B+.
84. KJ Harrison, Brewers, C, College(Oregon St.): Low A- .228/.298/.384, 12 HR, 8.4 BB%, 31.5 K%, 466 PA. Grade C.
97. Quinn Brodey, Mets, OF, College(Stanford): Low A- .217/.287/.389, 10 HR, 7 SB, 7.5 BB%, 26.7 K%. A+- .245/.313/.382, 3 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 112 PA. Grade C.
100. Connor Wong, Dodgers, C, College(Houston): A+- .269/.350/.480, 19 HR, 6 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32 K%, 431 PA. 3 true outcomes college catching prospect. Grade B.
105. Keegan Thompson, Cubs, RHP, College(Auburn): A+- 3-3, 3.19, 67.2 IP, 8.11 K/9, 1.73 BB/9. AA- 6-3, 4.06, 62 IP, 7.84 K/9, 3.05 BB/9. Another polished college pitcher. Made AA. Grade B.
119. Colton Hock, Marlins, RHP, College(Stanford): Low A- 9-8, 4.45, 91 IP, 7.62 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. At one point as being touted as a first rounder. Stock slipped badly during his junior season when he pitched mostly out of the bullpen for Stanford. Decent numbers here, but level is too low for pitcher drafted out of a major conference. Grade C.
120. Michael Gigliotti, Royals, OF, College(Lipscomb): .235/.435/.471, 24 PA. Missed most of 2018 season with a ACL injury. Grade Incomplete.
161. Alex Scherff, Red Sox, RHP, HS: R- 0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 5.40 K/9, 1.80 BB/9. Low A- 1-5, 4.98, 7.06 K/9, 3.18 BB/9. I had Scherff ranked as a borderline first rounder. I might have been a big high on him. Grade C-.
166. Ricky De La Torre, Twins, SS, HS: R- .254/.328/.396, 4 HR, SB, 7.9 BB%, 27.5 K%, 159 PA. I really liked what I saw of this kid in scouting videos. Appy League is an advanced version of rookie league. He's a project and not likely to stick at SS. Grade C.
207: Evan Skoug, White Sox, C, College(TCU): Low A- .192/.283/.299, 5 HR, 4 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.9 K%, 311 PA. The bat has to play for this defensively challenged college catcher. Unfortunately, he's struggled with the bat since the beginning of his junior season in college. Grade D.
210: Brewer Hicklen, Royals, OF, College(Alabaman-Birmingham): Low A- .307/.378/.552, 17 HR, 29 SB, 6.9 BB%, 28.2 K%, 347 PA. A+- .211/.263/.310, HR, 6 SB, 5.1 BB%, 33.3 K%, 78 PA. Stumbled in a late season promotion to A+ which should be his age appropriate level. Grade B-.
261. Jared Poche, A's, LHP, College(LSU): Low A- 8-6, 4.41, 130.2 IP, 7.23 K/9, 2.34 BB/9. Ultimate polished college lefty. Pedestrian numbers at too low a level. Grade C.
Friday, November 23, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review(Picks 21-30)
So, this is the part where we take a look at who was drafted after the Giants and see who was still available when they made their pick. The big one, of course is the Dodgers at #23.
21. DL Hall, Orioles, LHP, HS: Low A: 2-7, 2.10, 94.1 IP, 9.54 K/9, 4.01 BB/9. Hall was linked to the Giants in several mock drafts throughout the cycle. Hard thrower with reported velocities up to 96 MPH. Strong first full season at age appropriate level. Grade B(I'd still take Heliot Ramos long term upside).
22. Logan Warmoth, Blue Jays, SS, Collge(North Carolina): A+- .248/.322/.319, HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 21.4 K%. Disappointing first full season at age appropriate level. Grade C.
23. Jeren Kendall, Dodgers, OF, College(Vanderbilt): A+- .215/.300/.356, 12 HR, 37 SB, 10.5 BB%, 32.0 K%, 494 PA. Kendall has tools galore and was the top draft prospect in most early rankings. His stock slipped dramatically as the strikeouts piled up his junior season at Vandy. In his first full pro season, he showed decent power, plus speed on the basepaths and a strong walk rate, but all that was undercut by the horrendous K rate which suppressed his OBP to unacceptable levels.
Here's where I stop and wonder who the Dodgers would have selected if both Heliot Ramos and Kendall were available? The Giants obviously made that choice. I also wonder if the Giants would have taken Kendall if Ramos was off the board? Kendall's tools are impressive and he's farther up the chain than Ramos, but can you really call this a successful season that that BA and OBP? It seems to me Kendall is running out of time to significantly alter his approach.
Grade C
24. Tanner Houck, Red Sox, RHP, College(Missouri): A+- 7-11, 4.24, 119.0 IP, 8.39 K/9, 4.54 BB/9. Another highly ranked college SP whose stocked dropped during his junior season. He gets a point for being a relative workhorse but the rest of the line does not look inspiring. Grade C.
25. Seth Romero, Nationals, LHP, College(Houston): Low A: 0-1, 3.91, 25.1 IP, 12.08 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Possibly the best stuff of any pitcher in this draft. Stock dropped dramatically when he ran into a series of off-field issues which got him booted off his college team. His agent is Scott Boras who is tight with Nationals ownership and apparently convinced them to draft him. He got sent home from spring training for violating team rules. Reinstated midseason, he put up some nice numbers at too low a level then underwent TJ surgery in August. Grade F.
26. Bubba Thompson, Rangers, OF, HS: Low A- .289/.344/.446, 8 HR, 32 SB, 6.3 BB%, 28.7 K%, 363 PA. Nice numbers for his first full season but he's 2 years older than Heliot Ramos. Grade B.
27. Brendon Little, Cubs, LHP, JC: Low A- 5-11, 5.15, 101.1 IP, 7.99 K/9, 3.82 BB/9. Giants drafted him in 2016. Improved his stock with a second season in JC ball. Low A numbers not looking good. Grade D.
28. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays, RHP, JC: A+- 0-1, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 5.40 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Hard thrower. TJ surgery. Grade D.
29. Chris Seise, Rangers, SS, HS: DNP. Seise' stock ticked up near the end of the 2017 draft cycle. Hit .336 in rookie ball after the draft. Missed all of 2017 after undergoing a right shoulder "rotator cuff cleanout" procedure. Yikes! Grade Incomplete, but I would say future at SS is uncertain at best.
30. Alex Lange, Cubs, RHP, College(LSU): A+- 6-8, 3.74, 120.1 IP, 7.55 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Stock dropped in the draft cycle due to a stat line at LSU that looked a lot like this. Not nearly the kind of dominance you want from a frontline college SP. Grade C.
21. DL Hall, Orioles, LHP, HS: Low A: 2-7, 2.10, 94.1 IP, 9.54 K/9, 4.01 BB/9. Hall was linked to the Giants in several mock drafts throughout the cycle. Hard thrower with reported velocities up to 96 MPH. Strong first full season at age appropriate level. Grade B(I'd still take Heliot Ramos long term upside).
22. Logan Warmoth, Blue Jays, SS, Collge(North Carolina): A+- .248/.322/.319, HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 21.4 K%. Disappointing first full season at age appropriate level. Grade C.
23. Jeren Kendall, Dodgers, OF, College(Vanderbilt): A+- .215/.300/.356, 12 HR, 37 SB, 10.5 BB%, 32.0 K%, 494 PA. Kendall has tools galore and was the top draft prospect in most early rankings. His stock slipped dramatically as the strikeouts piled up his junior season at Vandy. In his first full pro season, he showed decent power, plus speed on the basepaths and a strong walk rate, but all that was undercut by the horrendous K rate which suppressed his OBP to unacceptable levels.
Here's where I stop and wonder who the Dodgers would have selected if both Heliot Ramos and Kendall were available? The Giants obviously made that choice. I also wonder if the Giants would have taken Kendall if Ramos was off the board? Kendall's tools are impressive and he's farther up the chain than Ramos, but can you really call this a successful season that that BA and OBP? It seems to me Kendall is running out of time to significantly alter his approach.
Grade C
24. Tanner Houck, Red Sox, RHP, College(Missouri): A+- 7-11, 4.24, 119.0 IP, 8.39 K/9, 4.54 BB/9. Another highly ranked college SP whose stocked dropped during his junior season. He gets a point for being a relative workhorse but the rest of the line does not look inspiring. Grade C.
25. Seth Romero, Nationals, LHP, College(Houston): Low A: 0-1, 3.91, 25.1 IP, 12.08 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Possibly the best stuff of any pitcher in this draft. Stock dropped dramatically when he ran into a series of off-field issues which got him booted off his college team. His agent is Scott Boras who is tight with Nationals ownership and apparently convinced them to draft him. He got sent home from spring training for violating team rules. Reinstated midseason, he put up some nice numbers at too low a level then underwent TJ surgery in August. Grade F.
26. Bubba Thompson, Rangers, OF, HS: Low A- .289/.344/.446, 8 HR, 32 SB, 6.3 BB%, 28.7 K%, 363 PA. Nice numbers for his first full season but he's 2 years older than Heliot Ramos. Grade B.
27. Brendon Little, Cubs, LHP, JC: Low A- 5-11, 5.15, 101.1 IP, 7.99 K/9, 3.82 BB/9. Giants drafted him in 2016. Improved his stock with a second season in JC ball. Low A numbers not looking good. Grade D.
28. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays, RHP, JC: A+- 0-1, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 5.40 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Hard thrower. TJ surgery. Grade D.
29. Chris Seise, Rangers, SS, HS: DNP. Seise' stock ticked up near the end of the 2017 draft cycle. Hit .336 in rookie ball after the draft. Missed all of 2017 after undergoing a right shoulder "rotator cuff cleanout" procedure. Yikes! Grade Incomplete, but I would say future at SS is uncertain at best.
30. Alex Lange, Cubs, RHP, College(LSU): A+- 6-8, 3.74, 120.1 IP, 7.55 K/9, 2.84 BB/9. Stock dropped in the draft cycle due to a stat line at LSU that looked a lot like this. Not nearly the kind of dominance you want from a frontline college SP. Grade C.
Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review(Rounds 11-20)
While we wait for Farhan Zaidi to finish scoping out the Giants organization and start making moves, we'll continue our series of draft reviews. Heliot Ramos at pick #19 went to the Giants and we'll take a look at where is pro career stands.
11. Jake Burger, White Sox, 3B, College(Missouri St): DNP. Burger missed the 2018 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Grade Incomplete.
12. Shane Baz, Pirates, RHP, HS: R(Pirates)- 4-3, 3.97, 45.1 IP, 10.72 K/9, 4.57 BB/9. R(Rays)- 0-2, 7.71, 7 IP, 6.43 K/9, 7.71 BB/9. Mixed results in rookie ball, but still has a high ceiling. Traded to the Rays midseason for Chris Archer. Grade C.
13. Trevor Rogers, Marlins, LHP, HS: Low A- 2-7, 5.82, 72.2 IP, 10.53 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.56. Peripherals better than ERA for this high ceiling LHP. Grade C+.
14. Nick Pratto, Royals, 1B, HS: Low A- .280/.343/.443, 14 HR, 22 SB, 8.4 BB%, 27.9 K%, 537 PA. I was not excited about Pratto coming into the draft. He as a 2-way player in HS and I thought he did not quite have the arm for pitching and not enough bat for 1B. I am most suprised by the 22 SB. Maybe he could play OF? Grade B.
15. JB Bakauskas, Astros, RHP, College(North Carolina): R- 0-0, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 10.80 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Short Season- 0-0, 0.00, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.16 BB/9. Low A- 1-2, 4.20, 15 IP, 12.60 K/9, 4.20 BB/9. A+- 3-0, 1.61, 28 IP, 9.96 K/9, 4.18 BB/9. AA- 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 12.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. AFL- 2-1, 3.33, 24.1 IP, 10 BB, 24 K. High floor college pitcher. Missed a couple of months with in injury but looked fine at multiple levels after return from DL. Got in some extra innings in the AFL. Grade B.
16. Clarke Schmidt, Yankees, RHP, College(South Carolina): R- 0-2, 7.04, 7.2 IP, 14.09 K/9, 2.35 BB/9. R- 0-0, 1.23, 7.1 IP, 9.82 K/9, 2.45 BB/9. Short Season- 0-1, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 10.80 K/9, 2.16 BB/9. Underwent TJ surgery prior to the draft. Came back late June with mixed results. Last appearance was 8/5/2018. I was not able to find why he was shut down early. Grade C-.
17. Evan White, Mariners, 1B/OF, College(Kentucky): A+- .303/.375/.458, 11 HR, 4 SB, 9.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 538 PA. You hope to see more power in the future, but otherwise fine numbers for a first full pro season. If he can play OF, the power might not matter as much. Grade B+.
18. Alex Faedo, Tigers, RHP, College(Florida): A+- 2-4, 3.10, 61 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.92 BB/9. AA- 3-6, 4.95, 60 IP, 8.85 K/9, 3.30 BB/9. I had him pegged as a pitch-to-contact innings eater when his name was at the top of mock drafts. That's what his first pro season looks like too. Grade B.
19. Heliot Ramos, Giants, OF, HS: Low A- .245/.313/.396, 11 HR, 8 SB, 6.5 BB%, 25.4 K%. Farhan Zaidi commended Heliot just for sticking it out for a full season in Augusta which is an extreme pitcher-friendly environment in a pitcher's league. He dropped his K rate from rookie ball and showed some pop in his bat. Expected to see more SB's, but I'm not sure SB's in the minors are necessarily and good thing anymore. Do the Giants keep him in Augusta for another year or promote him to San Jose where he will be very young for level and likely struggle? I think it's almost inevitable that he repeats a year. Do you want that repeat year in Augusta or San Jose?. Grade C+.
20. David Peterson, Mets, LHP, College(Oregon): Low A- 1-4, 1.82, 59.1 IP, 8.65 K/9, 1.67 BB/9. A+- 6-6, 4.33, 68.2 IP, 7.60 K/9, 2.49 BB/9. This is the guy I thought the Giants would draft if he was on the board and I would have been OK with it....except for the Heliot Ramos being a Dodger part. Cautious assignments by the Mets with mixed results. Peripherals look like a high floor college draftee. I'll still take Heliot's ceiling. Grade B.
11. Jake Burger, White Sox, 3B, College(Missouri St): DNP. Burger missed the 2018 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. Grade Incomplete.
12. Shane Baz, Pirates, RHP, HS: R(Pirates)- 4-3, 3.97, 45.1 IP, 10.72 K/9, 4.57 BB/9. R(Rays)- 0-2, 7.71, 7 IP, 6.43 K/9, 7.71 BB/9. Mixed results in rookie ball, but still has a high ceiling. Traded to the Rays midseason for Chris Archer. Grade C.
13. Trevor Rogers, Marlins, LHP, HS: Low A- 2-7, 5.82, 72.2 IP, 10.53 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.56. Peripherals better than ERA for this high ceiling LHP. Grade C+.
14. Nick Pratto, Royals, 1B, HS: Low A- .280/.343/.443, 14 HR, 22 SB, 8.4 BB%, 27.9 K%, 537 PA. I was not excited about Pratto coming into the draft. He as a 2-way player in HS and I thought he did not quite have the arm for pitching and not enough bat for 1B. I am most suprised by the 22 SB. Maybe he could play OF? Grade B.
15. JB Bakauskas, Astros, RHP, College(North Carolina): R- 0-0, 10.80, 1.2 IP, 10.80 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. Short Season- 0-0, 0.00, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.16 BB/9. Low A- 1-2, 4.20, 15 IP, 12.60 K/9, 4.20 BB/9. A+- 3-0, 1.61, 28 IP, 9.96 K/9, 4.18 BB/9. AA- 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 12.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. AFL- 2-1, 3.33, 24.1 IP, 10 BB, 24 K. High floor college pitcher. Missed a couple of months with in injury but looked fine at multiple levels after return from DL. Got in some extra innings in the AFL. Grade B.
16. Clarke Schmidt, Yankees, RHP, College(South Carolina): R- 0-2, 7.04, 7.2 IP, 14.09 K/9, 2.35 BB/9. R- 0-0, 1.23, 7.1 IP, 9.82 K/9, 2.45 BB/9. Short Season- 0-1, 1.08, 8.1 IP, 10.80 K/9, 2.16 BB/9. Underwent TJ surgery prior to the draft. Came back late June with mixed results. Last appearance was 8/5/2018. I was not able to find why he was shut down early. Grade C-.
17. Evan White, Mariners, 1B/OF, College(Kentucky): A+- .303/.375/.458, 11 HR, 4 SB, 9.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 538 PA. You hope to see more power in the future, but otherwise fine numbers for a first full pro season. If he can play OF, the power might not matter as much. Grade B+.
18. Alex Faedo, Tigers, RHP, College(Florida): A+- 2-4, 3.10, 61 IP, 7.52 K/9, 1.92 BB/9. AA- 3-6, 4.95, 60 IP, 8.85 K/9, 3.30 BB/9. I had him pegged as a pitch-to-contact innings eater when his name was at the top of mock drafts. That's what his first pro season looks like too. Grade B.
19. Heliot Ramos, Giants, OF, HS: Low A- .245/.313/.396, 11 HR, 8 SB, 6.5 BB%, 25.4 K%. Farhan Zaidi commended Heliot just for sticking it out for a full season in Augusta which is an extreme pitcher-friendly environment in a pitcher's league. He dropped his K rate from rookie ball and showed some pop in his bat. Expected to see more SB's, but I'm not sure SB's in the minors are necessarily and good thing anymore. Do the Giants keep him in Augusta for another year or promote him to San Jose where he will be very young for level and likely struggle? I think it's almost inevitable that he repeats a year. Do you want that repeat year in Augusta or San Jose?. Grade C+.
20. David Peterson, Mets, LHP, College(Oregon): Low A- 1-4, 1.82, 59.1 IP, 8.65 K/9, 1.67 BB/9. A+- 6-6, 4.33, 68.2 IP, 7.60 K/9, 2.49 BB/9. This is the guy I thought the Giants would draft if he was on the board and I would have been OK with it....except for the Heliot Ramos being a Dodger part. Cautious assignments by the Mets with mixed results. Peripherals look like a high floor college draftee. I'll still take Heliot's ceiling. Grade B.
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review(Picks 1-10)
We scouted the 2017 draft in quite a bit of detail, so you should recognize the names of most of the players drafted in the first round. This was the Giants Heliot Ramos draft. I remember the exact moment I knew the Giants had to draft Ramos. It was when I saw a mock draft that had him going to the Dodgers. I let out an audible "oh no!" and just said, "the Giants cannot allow Heliot Ramos to get to the Dodgers!". Seems like someone in the Giants front office might have been thinking along those same lines. So, let's check in on how the first rounders from the 2017 draft are doing. We'll list their 2018 stat lines and then just for fun give a letter grade based only on performance so far.
1. Royce Lewis, Twins, SS, HS: Low A- .315/.368/.485, 9 HR, 22 SB, 7.3 BB%, 15 K%, 327 PA. A+- .255/.327/.399, 5 HR, 6 SB, 208 PA. Midseason promotions are tough for prospects because all those players who started the season at a higher level have been getting better too. High A is an aggressive promotion for a HS prospect in their first full season. I remember being skeptical of Lewis' bat because of a slow bat-to-ball time. That metric might not be the best measure of a batter's hit tool. Grade A.
2. Hunter Greene, Reds, RHP, HS: Low A- 3-7, 4.48, 68.1 IP, 11.72 K/9, 3.03 BB/9. HS pitchers are the highest risk demographic on draft day. Greene was a 2-way player in HS but the Reds drafted him as a pitcher. Peripherals look good here and he has maintained premium velocity in the pros. Young pitchers who throw that hard tend to blow out their elbows and Greene's season was cut short by an elbow strain. No TJ yet, but stay tuned. Grade B.
3. Mackenzie Gore, Padres, LHP, HS: Low A- 2-5, 4.45, 60.2 IP, 10.98 K/9, 2.67 BB/9. Gore was the darling of the draft analysts who proclaimed him the steal of the draft. Peripherals look good but the season was interrupted by 3 trips to the DL. At least the first one was due to finger blisters. Grade B.
4. Brendan McKay, Rays, LHP/1B, College(Louisville): Low A- 2-0, 1.09, 24.2 IP, 14.59 K/9, 0.73 BB/9. A+- 3-2, 3.21, 47.2 IP, 10.20 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. Low A- .254/.484/.333, HR, 30.8 BB%, 14.3 K%, 91 PA. A+- .210/.317/.403, 5 HR, 11.5 BB%, 27.3 K%. College 2-way player who the Rays are allowing to pursue his dreams. Pitching results are more promising so far. Grade B+.
5. Kyle Wright, Braves, RHP, College(Vanderbilt): AA- 6-8, 3.70, 109.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 3.54 BB/9. AAA- 2-1, 2.51, 28.2 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.51 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 4.50, 6 IP, 7.50 K/9, 9.00 BB/9. First 2017 draft prospect to reach the majors in his first full season, no less! Peripherals look more like a #3 profile than top of the rotation, but he should have a solid career as an MLB starter. Grade A-.
6. Austin Beck, A's, OF, HS: Low A- .296/.335/.383, 2 HR, 8 SB, 5.6 BB%, 21.9 K%, 534 PA. This is where draft philosophy gets confusion. The A's, who pioneered the concept of drafting lower cost, higher floor college prospects have gone all in for tools, tools, tools the last 2 drafts. Beck was a late riser on draft analysts boards and was all tools. Those are not half bad results from his first pro season, though. Grade B.
7. Pavin Smith, D'Backs, 1B, College(Virginia): A+: .255/.343/.392, 11 HR, 3 SB, 11.3 BB%, 12.9 K%, 504 PA. With Paul Goldschmidt rumored to be on the trading block, Pavin Smith might be the D'Backs 1B of the future. His profile is more Joey Votto than Goldy. Power is a bit disappointing so far. Grade B.
8. Adam Haseley, Phillies, OF, College(Virginia): A+- .270/.350/.380, 5 HR, 7 SB, 5.4 BB%, 15.3 K%, 354 PA. AA- .316/.403/.478, 6 HR, 10.1 BB%, 11.9 K%, 159 PA. We'll call this the Andrew Benintendi profile. 5-tool college OF's with plus-plus hit. Better results after promo to AA. Not sure what they are up to in Philly this offseason, but I could see Haseley in their OF by midseason. Grade A.
9. Keston Hiura, Brewers, 2B, College(UC Irvine): A+- .320/.382/.529, 7 HR, 4 SB, 6.1 BB%, 20.6 K%, 228 PA. AA- .272/.339/.416, 6 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 18.2 K%. 2018 AFL MVP. Drafted for his bat. Seems to have recovered from UCL tear without undergoing surgery and is reportedly doing OK on defense at 2B. Could be the Brewers starting 2B by May 1. Grade A.
10. Jo Adell, Angels, OF, HS: Low A- .326/.398/.611, 6 HR, 4 SB, 10.2 BB%, 24.1 K%, 108 PA. A+- .290/.345/.546, 12 HR, 9 SB, 5.7 BB%, 24 K%, 262 PA. AA- .238/.324/.429, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8.5 BB%, 31.0 K%, 71 PA. Wow! What a prospect! What a season! It's almost unheard of for a HS draftee to make AA in their first full season. I called Adell having the highest ceiling of any player in the draft going in and now he's backing that up with on-field performance. Will he play in the same OF as Mike Trout? Grade A+!!
1. Royce Lewis, Twins, SS, HS: Low A- .315/.368/.485, 9 HR, 22 SB, 7.3 BB%, 15 K%, 327 PA. A+- .255/.327/.399, 5 HR, 6 SB, 208 PA. Midseason promotions are tough for prospects because all those players who started the season at a higher level have been getting better too. High A is an aggressive promotion for a HS prospect in their first full season. I remember being skeptical of Lewis' bat because of a slow bat-to-ball time. That metric might not be the best measure of a batter's hit tool. Grade A.
2. Hunter Greene, Reds, RHP, HS: Low A- 3-7, 4.48, 68.1 IP, 11.72 K/9, 3.03 BB/9. HS pitchers are the highest risk demographic on draft day. Greene was a 2-way player in HS but the Reds drafted him as a pitcher. Peripherals look good here and he has maintained premium velocity in the pros. Young pitchers who throw that hard tend to blow out their elbows and Greene's season was cut short by an elbow strain. No TJ yet, but stay tuned. Grade B.
3. Mackenzie Gore, Padres, LHP, HS: Low A- 2-5, 4.45, 60.2 IP, 10.98 K/9, 2.67 BB/9. Gore was the darling of the draft analysts who proclaimed him the steal of the draft. Peripherals look good but the season was interrupted by 3 trips to the DL. At least the first one was due to finger blisters. Grade B.
4. Brendan McKay, Rays, LHP/1B, College(Louisville): Low A- 2-0, 1.09, 24.2 IP, 14.59 K/9, 0.73 BB/9. A+- 3-2, 3.21, 47.2 IP, 10.20 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. Low A- .254/.484/.333, HR, 30.8 BB%, 14.3 K%, 91 PA. A+- .210/.317/.403, 5 HR, 11.5 BB%, 27.3 K%. College 2-way player who the Rays are allowing to pursue his dreams. Pitching results are more promising so far. Grade B+.
5. Kyle Wright, Braves, RHP, College(Vanderbilt): AA- 6-8, 3.70, 109.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 3.54 BB/9. AAA- 2-1, 2.51, 28.2 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.51 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 4.50, 6 IP, 7.50 K/9, 9.00 BB/9. First 2017 draft prospect to reach the majors in his first full season, no less! Peripherals look more like a #3 profile than top of the rotation, but he should have a solid career as an MLB starter. Grade A-.
6. Austin Beck, A's, OF, HS: Low A- .296/.335/.383, 2 HR, 8 SB, 5.6 BB%, 21.9 K%, 534 PA. This is where draft philosophy gets confusion. The A's, who pioneered the concept of drafting lower cost, higher floor college prospects have gone all in for tools, tools, tools the last 2 drafts. Beck was a late riser on draft analysts boards and was all tools. Those are not half bad results from his first pro season, though. Grade B.
7. Pavin Smith, D'Backs, 1B, College(Virginia): A+: .255/.343/.392, 11 HR, 3 SB, 11.3 BB%, 12.9 K%, 504 PA. With Paul Goldschmidt rumored to be on the trading block, Pavin Smith might be the D'Backs 1B of the future. His profile is more Joey Votto than Goldy. Power is a bit disappointing so far. Grade B.
8. Adam Haseley, Phillies, OF, College(Virginia): A+- .270/.350/.380, 5 HR, 7 SB, 5.4 BB%, 15.3 K%, 354 PA. AA- .316/.403/.478, 6 HR, 10.1 BB%, 11.9 K%, 159 PA. We'll call this the Andrew Benintendi profile. 5-tool college OF's with plus-plus hit. Better results after promo to AA. Not sure what they are up to in Philly this offseason, but I could see Haseley in their OF by midseason. Grade A.
9. Keston Hiura, Brewers, 2B, College(UC Irvine): A+- .320/.382/.529, 7 HR, 4 SB, 6.1 BB%, 20.6 K%, 228 PA. AA- .272/.339/.416, 6 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 18.2 K%. 2018 AFL MVP. Drafted for his bat. Seems to have recovered from UCL tear without undergoing surgery and is reportedly doing OK on defense at 2B. Could be the Brewers starting 2B by May 1. Grade A.
10. Jo Adell, Angels, OF, HS: Low A- .326/.398/.611, 6 HR, 4 SB, 10.2 BB%, 24.1 K%, 108 PA. A+- .290/.345/.546, 12 HR, 9 SB, 5.7 BB%, 24 K%, 262 PA. AA- .238/.324/.429, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8.5 BB%, 31.0 K%, 71 PA. Wow! What a prospect! What a season! It's almost unheard of for a HS draftee to make AA in their first full season. I called Adell having the highest ceiling of any player in the draft going in and now he's backing that up with on-field performance. Will he play in the same OF as Mike Trout? Grade A+!!
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Down on the Farm: AFL Wrap, Rule 5 Draft and More
Two things I am a lot less interested in now than I was a few years ago are the Arizona Fall League and the Rule 5 Draft. AFL numbers historically mean absolutely nothing and the Rule 5 Draft only rarely results in any significant transfer of talent. Having said that, the AFL season recently ended and teams have completed their pre-Rule 5 maneuverings so it's time to check in on what's going on.
Giants pitching prospects shone in this year's AFL while their hitting prospect representatives mostly struggled. Melvin Adon in particular got national attention with his eye-popping velocity combined with strong results. Here are the stat lines for anyone who is interested:
Melvin Adon, RHP- 0-1, 2.92, 12.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K's. Adon gave up 3 runs in his last 2 appearances after 7 consecutive scoreless outings. The K/BB is obviously encouraging. What he needs more than anything is consistency and this sample is too small to show that. The velocity is for real though. His skill set may be better suited to the bullpen but he has shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into games.
Garrett Williams, LHP- 3-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 11 BB, 27 K. Williams has always had premium stuff, but has struggled with his command. He's kind of been the poster boy for the Giants strategy trying to fix pitching prospects who fit that profile. You can see some of that in the walk rate here. Again, this is a SSS, but hopefully something to build on.
Chase Johnson, RHP- 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 7 BB, 10 K's. Johnson was recently dropped from the Giants 40 man roster but passed through waivers and was assigned to the AAA Sacramento roster. He needs a full season of health S/P TJ. I'm happy he will get to do that in the Giants organization.
Sam Wolff, RHP- 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 2 BB, 14 K's. Wolff was acquired in the Matt Moore trade last offseason and spent the first half of 2018 on the DL. He was inconsistent after his midseason return. These numbers look great, but were not enough to get him onto the Giants 40 man roster. At risk for being grabbed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
CJ Hinojosa, IF- .149/.245/.234, HR, 5 BB, 12 K, 47 AB. CJ had his moment, a 3-run PH HR, but otherwise had a forgettable AFL.
Heath Quinn, OF- .128/.222/.128, 4 BB, 17 K's, 39 AB. Not good numbers at all, but it's the AFL.
Matt Winn, C- .122/.321/.317, 2 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 41 AB. Winn's profile is he is a good defensive C with leadership skills with a bit of pop and contact issues. This result fits in with that profile.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants added 3 players to their 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, RHP Melvin Adon, RHP Logan Webb and RHP Sam Coonrod. Adon and Webb were expected. Coonrod is an interesting choice given his struggle post-TJ last season. Sandro Fabian and Manuel Geraldo are probably too far away to worry about too much.
*********************************************************************************
RHP Julian Fernandez, the Giants Rule 5 selection last year, was dropped from the 40 man roster and claimed of waivers by the Marlins. Since he spent all of last year on the DL, the Giants would have to keep him on the 25 man active roster for 90 days or offer him back to the Rockies. Probably not worth that trouble, but I really like this kid and hope his finds success in Miami.
*********************************************************************************
Kelby Tomlinson has moved on from the Giants after they moved on from him. He signed a minor league contract with the D'Backs with an invitation for spring training. Wish Kelby the best. He got the absolute most out of his talent and had some nice moments with the Giants. I can easily see him being a coach or manager someday.
Giants pitching prospects shone in this year's AFL while their hitting prospect representatives mostly struggled. Melvin Adon in particular got national attention with his eye-popping velocity combined with strong results. Here are the stat lines for anyone who is interested:
Melvin Adon, RHP- 0-1, 2.92, 12.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K's. Adon gave up 3 runs in his last 2 appearances after 7 consecutive scoreless outings. The K/BB is obviously encouraging. What he needs more than anything is consistency and this sample is too small to show that. The velocity is for real though. His skill set may be better suited to the bullpen but he has shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into games.
Garrett Williams, LHP- 3-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 11 BB, 27 K. Williams has always had premium stuff, but has struggled with his command. He's kind of been the poster boy for the Giants strategy trying to fix pitching prospects who fit that profile. You can see some of that in the walk rate here. Again, this is a SSS, but hopefully something to build on.
Chase Johnson, RHP- 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 7 BB, 10 K's. Johnson was recently dropped from the Giants 40 man roster but passed through waivers and was assigned to the AAA Sacramento roster. He needs a full season of health S/P TJ. I'm happy he will get to do that in the Giants organization.
Sam Wolff, RHP- 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 2 BB, 14 K's. Wolff was acquired in the Matt Moore trade last offseason and spent the first half of 2018 on the DL. He was inconsistent after his midseason return. These numbers look great, but were not enough to get him onto the Giants 40 man roster. At risk for being grabbed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
CJ Hinojosa, IF- .149/.245/.234, HR, 5 BB, 12 K, 47 AB. CJ had his moment, a 3-run PH HR, but otherwise had a forgettable AFL.
Heath Quinn, OF- .128/.222/.128, 4 BB, 17 K's, 39 AB. Not good numbers at all, but it's the AFL.
Matt Winn, C- .122/.321/.317, 2 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 41 AB. Winn's profile is he is a good defensive C with leadership skills with a bit of pop and contact issues. This result fits in with that profile.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants added 3 players to their 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, RHP Melvin Adon, RHP Logan Webb and RHP Sam Coonrod. Adon and Webb were expected. Coonrod is an interesting choice given his struggle post-TJ last season. Sandro Fabian and Manuel Geraldo are probably too far away to worry about too much.
*********************************************************************************
RHP Julian Fernandez, the Giants Rule 5 selection last year, was dropped from the 40 man roster and claimed of waivers by the Marlins. Since he spent all of last year on the DL, the Giants would have to keep him on the 25 man active roster for 90 days or offer him back to the Rockies. Probably not worth that trouble, but I really like this kid and hope his finds success in Miami.
*********************************************************************************
Kelby Tomlinson has moved on from the Giants after they moved on from him. He signed a minor league contract with the D'Backs with an invitation for spring training. Wish Kelby the best. He got the absolute most out of his talent and had some nice moments with the Giants. I can easily see him being a coach or manager someday.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Yankees Trade for James Paxton
The Hot Stove was fully fired up today as the Yankees pulled off a big trade with, you guessed it, Trader Jerry and the Mariners! The Yankees were known to be in the market for a frontline LHP and they got a good one in Paxton for 3 prospects led by LHP Justus Sheffield.
James Paxton LHP, 30 yo. 2018: 11-6, 3.76, 160.1 IP, 11.68 K/9, 2.36 BB/9. Paxton has elite stuff and is dominant when he's healthy and there's the rub. His 28 Starts and 160.1 IP in 2018 were career highs. The Yankees need strong lefty pitching to protect that short porch in RF, and Paxton fills that bill. We'll see if they still also pursue FA LHP Patrick Corbin. Paxton has 2 years of arbitration eligibility.
Justus Sheffield LHP, 23 yo. 2018: AA- 1-2, 2.25, 28 IP, 12.54 K/9, 4.50 BB/9. AAA- 6-4, 2.56, 88 IP, 8.59, 3.68 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 10.13, 2.2 IP, 0.00 K/9, 10.13 BB/9. Sheffield is a former first round draft pick by the Indians in 2014 and has been a highly ranked prospect since. He has dominant stuff but could still use some polish on his command.
Erik Swanson RHP, 25 yo. 2018: Short Season- 0-0, 4.05, 6.2 IP, 8.10 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. AA- 5-0, 0.42, 42.2 IP, 11.60 K/9, 3.16 BB/9. AAA- 3-2, 3.86, 72.1 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9. Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible and the Yanks did not have room on their 40 man roster for him. He had solid numbers in 2018 and should be ready to make his MLB debut this season.
Dom Thompson-Williams, OF, 24 yo. 2018 A+: .290/.356/.517, 17 HR, 17 SB, 8.3 BB%, 25.3 K%, 375 PA. Toolsy numbers in high A ball. Should move up to AA in 2019. Nice lottery ticket.
Conclusion: Both sides get what they want out of this deal. Yankees are playing to win it all in 2018 and get a frontline SP in Paxton. Mariners add young talent with 2 pitchers who can contribute right away.
*********************************************************************************
In other Hot Stove news, the Indians bolster pitching by acquiring RHP Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays for an 18 yo prospect who was drafted this year.
Chih-Wei Hu RHP, 25 yo. 2018: AAA- 5-7, 4.66, 102.1 IP, 8.09 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 4.15, 13 IP, 8.31 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. Hu has been around since he was signed by the Twins in 2013. Mostly a starter in the minors but has only relieved in a very SSS at the MLB level. He looks like a guy who can eat some innings on a MLB club in 2019. He has an option remaining.
Gionti Turner, 2B, 18 yo. 2018: R- .296/.348/.396, 1 HR, 9 SB, 6.4 BB%, 22.5 K%. Athletic looking youngster drafted in round 27 this year. He also played some SS and CF for the AZL Indians. Can't trust numbers out of the AZL, though. Lottery ticket.
Conclusion: The Rays apparently did not see Hu as part of their future and wanted to clear 40 man roster space. Indians add pitching depth. They may regret trading Gionti Turner at some point in the distant future.
*********************************************************************************
The Nationals addressed their catcher issue by signing veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki to a 2 year/$10 M contract. Suzuki is not young at age 35, but is coming off the 2 best seasons of his career.
Kurt Suzuki, C, 35 yo. 2017: .283/.351/.536, 19 HR, 5.5 BB%, 12.6 K%, 309 PA. 2018: .271/.332/.444, 12 HR, 5.7 BB%, 11.1 K%. 388 PA. Despite his age and position, he has been very durable over the course of his career. Solid signing by the Nationals.
James Paxton LHP, 30 yo. 2018: 11-6, 3.76, 160.1 IP, 11.68 K/9, 2.36 BB/9. Paxton has elite stuff and is dominant when he's healthy and there's the rub. His 28 Starts and 160.1 IP in 2018 were career highs. The Yankees need strong lefty pitching to protect that short porch in RF, and Paxton fills that bill. We'll see if they still also pursue FA LHP Patrick Corbin. Paxton has 2 years of arbitration eligibility.
Justus Sheffield LHP, 23 yo. 2018: AA- 1-2, 2.25, 28 IP, 12.54 K/9, 4.50 BB/9. AAA- 6-4, 2.56, 88 IP, 8.59, 3.68 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 10.13, 2.2 IP, 0.00 K/9, 10.13 BB/9. Sheffield is a former first round draft pick by the Indians in 2014 and has been a highly ranked prospect since. He has dominant stuff but could still use some polish on his command.
Erik Swanson RHP, 25 yo. 2018: Short Season- 0-0, 4.05, 6.2 IP, 8.10 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. AA- 5-0, 0.42, 42.2 IP, 11.60 K/9, 3.16 BB/9. AAA- 3-2, 3.86, 72.1 IP, 9.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9. Swanson is Rule 5 Draft eligible and the Yanks did not have room on their 40 man roster for him. He had solid numbers in 2018 and should be ready to make his MLB debut this season.
Dom Thompson-Williams, OF, 24 yo. 2018 A+: .290/.356/.517, 17 HR, 17 SB, 8.3 BB%, 25.3 K%, 375 PA. Toolsy numbers in high A ball. Should move up to AA in 2019. Nice lottery ticket.
Conclusion: Both sides get what they want out of this deal. Yankees are playing to win it all in 2018 and get a frontline SP in Paxton. Mariners add young talent with 2 pitchers who can contribute right away.
*********************************************************************************
In other Hot Stove news, the Indians bolster pitching by acquiring RHP Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays for an 18 yo prospect who was drafted this year.
Chih-Wei Hu RHP, 25 yo. 2018: AAA- 5-7, 4.66, 102.1 IP, 8.09 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. MLB- 0-0, 4.15, 13 IP, 8.31 K/9, 2.08 BB/9. Hu has been around since he was signed by the Twins in 2013. Mostly a starter in the minors but has only relieved in a very SSS at the MLB level. He looks like a guy who can eat some innings on a MLB club in 2019. He has an option remaining.
Gionti Turner, 2B, 18 yo. 2018: R- .296/.348/.396, 1 HR, 9 SB, 6.4 BB%, 22.5 K%. Athletic looking youngster drafted in round 27 this year. He also played some SS and CF for the AZL Indians. Can't trust numbers out of the AZL, though. Lottery ticket.
Conclusion: The Rays apparently did not see Hu as part of their future and wanted to clear 40 man roster space. Indians add pitching depth. They may regret trading Gionti Turner at some point in the distant future.
*********************************************************************************
The Nationals addressed their catcher issue by signing veteran backstop Kurt Suzuki to a 2 year/$10 M contract. Suzuki is not young at age 35, but is coming off the 2 best seasons of his career.
Kurt Suzuki, C, 35 yo. 2017: .283/.351/.536, 19 HR, 5.5 BB%, 12.6 K%, 309 PA. 2018: .271/.332/.444, 12 HR, 5.7 BB%, 11.1 K%. 388 PA. Despite his age and position, he has been very durable over the course of his career. Solid signing by the Nationals.
Scouting the Draft: 2016 Draft Review
The 2016 draft class has not exactly taken MLB by storm. 1-1 Mickey Moniak is looking more and more like Joe Panik is is absolute ceiling. Now Joe Panik is not exactly a bust, but he's also probably not what you envision when you take a HS prospect 1-1 either. 1-2 Nick Senzel and 1-6 AJ Puk seemed poised to make an impact in 2018 but both had their seasons derailed by injuries. Other 2016 draftees who appear to have a chance of making in impact in the near future include #3 Ian Anderson, #5 Corey Ray, #8 Cal Quantrill, and #17 Forest Whitley. The rest of the 2918 first round draft class seems a bit on the underwhelming side.
So, it may have been a good time for the Giants to lose their first round pick when they signed Jeff Samardzija. Several analysts felt the Giants got first round value in their first pick which fell in Round 2 in OF Bryan Reynolds a switch-hitting CF from Vanderbilt. Reynolds displayed a plus hit-too but quickly started to profile as a corner OF short on power. He was traded to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen who was then traded for SS Abiatal Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula. That is probably a net downgrade but probably worth seeing Andrew McCutchen wear a Giants uniform for 5 months.
Other Giants draftees from 2016 who remain in the organization with varying probabilities of ultimate success include OF Heath Quinn(3), IF Ryan Howard(5), OF/1B Gio Brusa(6), LHP Garrett Williams(7), LHP Caleb Baragar(9), 1B Ryan Kirby(12), OF Jose Layer(13), LHP Conner Menez(14), RHP DJ Myers(15), OF Jacob Heyward(18), SS Brandon Van Horn(19), OF Malique Ziegler(22), C Jeffry Parra(24), UT Nick Hill(26), RHP Patrick Ruotolo(27), RHP CJ Gettman(34), LHP Sidney Duprey(35).
So, it may have been a good time for the Giants to lose their first round pick when they signed Jeff Samardzija. Several analysts felt the Giants got first round value in their first pick which fell in Round 2 in OF Bryan Reynolds a switch-hitting CF from Vanderbilt. Reynolds displayed a plus hit-too but quickly started to profile as a corner OF short on power. He was traded to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen who was then traded for SS Abiatal Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula. That is probably a net downgrade but probably worth seeing Andrew McCutchen wear a Giants uniform for 5 months.
Other Giants draftees from 2016 who remain in the organization with varying probabilities of ultimate success include OF Heath Quinn(3), IF Ryan Howard(5), OF/1B Gio Brusa(6), LHP Garrett Williams(7), LHP Caleb Baragar(9), 1B Ryan Kirby(12), OF Jose Layer(13), LHP Conner Menez(14), RHP DJ Myers(15), OF Jacob Heyward(18), SS Brandon Van Horn(19), OF Malique Ziegler(22), C Jeffry Parra(24), UT Nick Hill(26), RHP Patrick Ruotolo(27), RHP CJ Gettman(34), LHP Sidney Duprey(35).
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Scouting the Trade Market: Wil Myers
As recently as the end of the 2017 season, Wil Myers looked like a rising superstar for the Padres coming off B2B 20/20 seasons. In fact, 2017 was a 30/20 season! Then the Padres inexplicably signed Eric Hosmer to a huge contract, Myers had an injury plagued season and several good, young and inexpensive OF's emerged and suddenly Myers looks like a guy who is past his prime and getting way too expensive. The Padres owe Myers just $3 M next season but then are on the hook for 3 consecutive $20 M payouts.
On the other hand, Wil Myers is still just 28 yo and his 2018 number project to close to 20/20 over a full season's worth of PA's. His Steamer projection for 2019 is .240/.322/.432 with 25 HR and 13 SB. He's a defensive liability at both corner IF positions and CF, but he's a plus corner OF.
Do you know where Wil Myers would be a perfect fit? Yeah, LF for the Giants! Do you know who has a history of swapping bad contracts as well as trading with each other within the NL West? Yeah, Farhan Zaidi and AJ Preller!
So here's the trade: Wil Myers for Mark Melancon. Giants get immediate payroll relief, but take on future risk. Padres take on a short term bad contract but get relief from the overall contract as well as future payroll relief. Or, given that they owe Myers just $3 M in 2018, the Padres may not feel forced to trade him just yet, so the Giants take on all of the contract and send a low level lottery ticket or 2 to the Padres. What do you think?
On the other hand, Wil Myers is still just 28 yo and his 2018 number project to close to 20/20 over a full season's worth of PA's. His Steamer projection for 2019 is .240/.322/.432 with 25 HR and 13 SB. He's a defensive liability at both corner IF positions and CF, but he's a plus corner OF.
Do you know where Wil Myers would be a perfect fit? Yeah, LF for the Giants! Do you know who has a history of swapping bad contracts as well as trading with each other within the NL West? Yeah, Farhan Zaidi and AJ Preller!
So here's the trade: Wil Myers for Mark Melancon. Giants get immediate payroll relief, but take on future risk. Padres take on a short term bad contract but get relief from the overall contract as well as future payroll relief. Or, given that they owe Myers just $3 M in 2018, the Padres may not feel forced to trade him just yet, so the Giants take on all of the contract and send a low level lottery ticket or 2 to the Padres. What do you think?
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Blue Jays Trade Aledmys Diaz to the Astros for MLB Ready SP
There was a brief flare of the Hot Stove today as the Blue Jays traded IF Aledmys Diaz to the Astros for SP prospect, Trent Thornton. Diaz was acquired last offseason by the Blue Jays but was expendable despite putting up good numbers and having multiple season of control on his contract. The Astros were looking for depth and versatility to replace Marwin Gonzalez who is in free agency.
Aledmys Diaz, IF, 28 yo: MLB- .263/.303/.453, 18 HR, 5.1 BB%, 13.7 K%, 452 PA. fWAR= 1.6. Diaz played SS and 3B last year and played a few innings at 2B and LF in 2017 for the Cardinals. He's clearly a contact hitter whose main offensive value is in his ability to pop a few HR's. I would be concerned about him moving out of the hitter-friendly AL East. He has 4 years of team control left.
Trent Thornton, RHP, 25 yo: AAA- 9-8, 4.42, 124.1 IP, 8.83 K/9, 2.24 BB/9. Smallish size for an SP at 6'0", 175 lbs. Solid numbers in the hitter-friendly PCL. Modest groundball tendency. Decent HR/FB. Has a shot at a rotation or long relief slot out of spring training. 6 years of team control.
Conclusion: I like this deal for the BJ's. They have a surplus of infielders and don't need Diaz. They deal him for a MLB ready SP with a decent chance of making the jump.
Aledmys Diaz, IF, 28 yo: MLB- .263/.303/.453, 18 HR, 5.1 BB%, 13.7 K%, 452 PA. fWAR= 1.6. Diaz played SS and 3B last year and played a few innings at 2B and LF in 2017 for the Cardinals. He's clearly a contact hitter whose main offensive value is in his ability to pop a few HR's. I would be concerned about him moving out of the hitter-friendly AL East. He has 4 years of team control left.
Trent Thornton, RHP, 25 yo: AAA- 9-8, 4.42, 124.1 IP, 8.83 K/9, 2.24 BB/9. Smallish size for an SP at 6'0", 175 lbs. Solid numbers in the hitter-friendly PCL. Modest groundball tendency. Decent HR/FB. Has a shot at a rotation or long relief slot out of spring training. 6 years of team control.
Conclusion: I like this deal for the BJ's. They have a surplus of infielders and don't need Diaz. They deal him for a MLB ready SP with a decent chance of making the jump.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2015 Draft Review(Rest of Giants)
Just to recap, the Giants first round pick, #18 Phil Bickford, brought back Will Smith in a trade which is probably not what you hope for from your first round pick, but it's not nothing either. The Giants made some picks later the draft that could more than make up for the disappointing results from Bickford.
Compensation First Round #31(for losing Pablo Sandoval to Free Agency- LOL Bosox!): Chris Shaw. Drafted as a 1B but shifted to LF, Shaw showed flashes during a September callup. His calling card is power and Farhan Zaidi loves power. Stay tuned.
Andrew Suarez(2) made the majors in 2018 and pitched well at times with better peripheral stats than ERA.
Jalen Miller(3) drafted out of HS had a nice season for A+ San Jose and looks ready to move up to AA.
Steven Duggar(6) appeared to be establishing himself as the Giants starting CF when a shoulder injury suffered while sliding into 2B on a pickoff attempt ended his season early. Terrific CF defense. If he can hit at all, that should land him the position for several years to come.
CJ Hinojosa(11) has had his ups and downs but had encouraging numbers in AA Richmond.
Matt Winn(14) could have an MLB career as a back up catcher.
Ryan Halstead RHP, Domenic Mazza LHP, Dillon Dobson 1B Tyler Brown 2B, Mac Marshall LHP, Ronnie Jebavy CF, Cody Brickhouse C remain in the organization with varying degrees of success.
Compensation First Round #31(for losing Pablo Sandoval to Free Agency- LOL Bosox!): Chris Shaw. Drafted as a 1B but shifted to LF, Shaw showed flashes during a September callup. His calling card is power and Farhan Zaidi loves power. Stay tuned.
Andrew Suarez(2) made the majors in 2018 and pitched well at times with better peripheral stats than ERA.
Jalen Miller(3) drafted out of HS had a nice season for A+ San Jose and looks ready to move up to AA.
Steven Duggar(6) appeared to be establishing himself as the Giants starting CF when a shoulder injury suffered while sliding into 2B on a pickoff attempt ended his season early. Terrific CF defense. If he can hit at all, that should land him the position for several years to come.
CJ Hinojosa(11) has had his ups and downs but had encouraging numbers in AA Richmond.
Matt Winn(14) could have an MLB career as a back up catcher.
Ryan Halstead RHP, Domenic Mazza LHP, Dillon Dobson 1B Tyler Brown 2B, Mac Marshall LHP, Ronnie Jebavy CF, Cody Brickhouse C remain in the organization with varying degrees of success.
Hot Stove Update: Pirates and Indians Make Minor Trade
The Indians and Pirates made a 5 player trade that had more to do with adjusting their 40 man rosters than anything. The Indians acquire OF Jordan Luplow and IF Max Moroff for UT Erik Gonzalez and a pair of RHP prospects, Tahnaj Thomas and Dante Mendoza. Let's break it down:
Jordan Luplow OF: AAA- .287/.367/.462, 8 HR, 7 SB, 10.9 BB%, 17.9 K%, 357 PA. MLB: .185/.272/.359, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.7 BB%, 17.5 K%, 103 PA. 25 yo former 3'rd round draft pick. Luplow bolsters a needy Indians OF. His peripherals look good and he is a breakout candidate if his BABIP normalizes. Hit 26 dingers across 3 levels in 2017.
Max Moroff 2B/SS: AAA- .223/334/.393, 8 HR, 5 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.9 K%, 297 PA. MLB: .186/.284/.356, 3 HR, 10.4 BB%, 35.8 K%, 67 PA. 26 yo Middle IF with some pop. Hit 16 dingers over 2 levels in 2017. Another breakout candidate if his BABIP normalizes.
Erik Gonzalez UT: MLB: .265/.301/.375, 1 HR, 3 SB, 3.5 BB%, 23.8 K%, 143 AB. Nice size at 6'3", 195 lbs. but not a lot of pop in his bat. Walk rate indicates he goes up there hacking.
Tahnaj Thomas RHP: Rookie- 0-0, 4.58, 19.2 IP, 12.36 K/9, 4.58 BB/9. 19 yo with a projectable frame at 6'4", 190 lbs. Mid-90's FB has room to add.
Dante Mendoza RHP- Rookie- 2-2, 4.58, 37.1 IP, 8.92 K/9, 4.82 BB/9. Another projectable 19 yo at 6'5", 186 lbs.
Pirates clear 40 man roster space for a couple of guys who don't figure to make the team and are out of options. They receive a utility guy who has played 7 of 9 positions and a couple of lottery ticket pitching prospects.
Indians get a couple of young players at career crossroads but both could be breakout candidates with playing time and better BABIP luck.
Indians win this deal in the short term but I like the 2 pitchers the Pirates got in the long term.
Jordan Luplow OF: AAA- .287/.367/.462, 8 HR, 7 SB, 10.9 BB%, 17.9 K%, 357 PA. MLB: .185/.272/.359, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.7 BB%, 17.5 K%, 103 PA. 25 yo former 3'rd round draft pick. Luplow bolsters a needy Indians OF. His peripherals look good and he is a breakout candidate if his BABIP normalizes. Hit 26 dingers across 3 levels in 2017.
Max Moroff 2B/SS: AAA- .223/334/.393, 8 HR, 5 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.9 K%, 297 PA. MLB: .186/.284/.356, 3 HR, 10.4 BB%, 35.8 K%, 67 PA. 26 yo Middle IF with some pop. Hit 16 dingers over 2 levels in 2017. Another breakout candidate if his BABIP normalizes.
Erik Gonzalez UT: MLB: .265/.301/.375, 1 HR, 3 SB, 3.5 BB%, 23.8 K%, 143 AB. Nice size at 6'3", 195 lbs. but not a lot of pop in his bat. Walk rate indicates he goes up there hacking.
Tahnaj Thomas RHP: Rookie- 0-0, 4.58, 19.2 IP, 12.36 K/9, 4.58 BB/9. 19 yo with a projectable frame at 6'4", 190 lbs. Mid-90's FB has room to add.
Dante Mendoza RHP- Rookie- 2-2, 4.58, 37.1 IP, 8.92 K/9, 4.82 BB/9. Another projectable 19 yo at 6'5", 186 lbs.
Pirates clear 40 man roster space for a couple of guys who don't figure to make the team and are out of options. They receive a utility guy who has played 7 of 9 positions and a couple of lottery ticket pitching prospects.
Indians get a couple of young players at career crossroads but both could be breakout candidates with playing time and better BABIP luck.
Indians win this deal in the short term but I like the 2 pitchers the Pirates got in the long term.
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2015 Draft Review(Round 1, Picks 11-20)
11. Tyler Stephenson, Reds, HS C: A+: .250/.338/.392, 11 HR, 10.0 BB%, 21.8 K%, 450 PA. Probably ready for AA which expected progress for HS draftee. Grade C.
12. Josh Naylor, Marlins, HS, 1B: AA(Padres)- .297/.383/.447, 17 HR, 5 SB, 11.1 BB%, 12.0 K%, 574 PA. Power with great peripherals at appropriate level. Grade B.
13. Garrett Whitley, Rays, HS, OF: 2017 Low A- .249/.362/.430, 13 HR, 21 SB, 13.4 BB%, 28.6 K%, 426 PA. Missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum. Profiled as a 3 True Outcomes bat with some speed prior to injury. Grade C(with upside).
14. Kolby Allard, Braves, HS, LHP: AAA- 6-4, 2.71, 112.1 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.72 BB/9. MLB: 1-1, 12.38, 8 IP, 3.38 K/9, 4.50 BB/9. Rough greeting to the major leagues, but were unimpressive K rates in AA and AAA a warning? Grade C+.
15. Trent Clark(Now Grisham), Brewers, HS, OF: AA- .233/.356/.337, 7 HR, 11 SB, 15.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 405 PA. Drafted as Trent Clark but legally changed his last name to Grisham, his mother's family name, in 2017. That's now how he is listed stat sources. Peripherals look good, but still hasn't quite put it all together. Grade C+.
16. James Kaprielian, Yankees, College, RHP- Last pitched in 2016. Traded to the A's where he is trying to make a comeback. Grade F.
17. Brady Aiken, Indians, HS, LHP: Drafted #1 overall in 2014 and then failed to sign after concerns raised by physical. Underwent TJ at the start of his HS postgraduate season. Struggled in Low A in 2017. Did not pitch in 2018. Grade F(so far).
18. Phil Bickford, Giants, JC, RHP: A+(Brewers)- 0-0, 4.67, 34.2 IP, 10.64, 4.67. So, Bickford actually pitched pretty well in the Giants system before a 2016 deadline trade for Will Smith. Remember the positive drug test before the draft? Well, he drew a 50 game suspension for testing positive in 2017. His absence was delayed by a fractured hand suffered in spring training. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2018. Grade: C. Gets credit for bringing back Will Smith in the trade. Could still be successful in the Brewers organization.
19. Kevin Newman, Pirates, College, SS: AAA: .302/.350/.407, 4 HR, 28 SB, 6.5 BB%, 23/7 K%, 477 PA. MLB: .209/.247/.231, 4.1 BB%, 23.7 K%, 97 PA. High contact MI. Rough MLB debut. Should get more opportunities. Grade B.
20. Richie Martin, A's, College, SS: AA: .300/.368/.439, 6 HR, 25 SB, 8.6 BB%, 16.9 K%, 509 PA. Under-the-radar prospect for the A's. Should move up to AAA after a nice AA season. Grade B.
So, there you have it. You don't have to go down to Walker Buehler at #24 to find a better pick than Phil Bickford. Both Kevin Newman and Richie Martin, college hitters drafted in the next 2 slots probably would have been better picks too.
12. Josh Naylor, Marlins, HS, 1B: AA(Padres)- .297/.383/.447, 17 HR, 5 SB, 11.1 BB%, 12.0 K%, 574 PA. Power with great peripherals at appropriate level. Grade B.
13. Garrett Whitley, Rays, HS, OF: 2017 Low A- .249/.362/.430, 13 HR, 21 SB, 13.4 BB%, 28.6 K%, 426 PA. Missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum. Profiled as a 3 True Outcomes bat with some speed prior to injury. Grade C(with upside).
14. Kolby Allard, Braves, HS, LHP: AAA- 6-4, 2.71, 112.1 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.72 BB/9. MLB: 1-1, 12.38, 8 IP, 3.38 K/9, 4.50 BB/9. Rough greeting to the major leagues, but were unimpressive K rates in AA and AAA a warning? Grade C+.
15. Trent Clark(Now Grisham), Brewers, HS, OF: AA- .233/.356/.337, 7 HR, 11 SB, 15.6 BB%, 21.5 K%, 405 PA. Drafted as Trent Clark but legally changed his last name to Grisham, his mother's family name, in 2017. That's now how he is listed stat sources. Peripherals look good, but still hasn't quite put it all together. Grade C+.
16. James Kaprielian, Yankees, College, RHP- Last pitched in 2016. Traded to the A's where he is trying to make a comeback. Grade F.
17. Brady Aiken, Indians, HS, LHP: Drafted #1 overall in 2014 and then failed to sign after concerns raised by physical. Underwent TJ at the start of his HS postgraduate season. Struggled in Low A in 2017. Did not pitch in 2018. Grade F(so far).
18. Phil Bickford, Giants, JC, RHP: A+(Brewers)- 0-0, 4.67, 34.2 IP, 10.64, 4.67. So, Bickford actually pitched pretty well in the Giants system before a 2016 deadline trade for Will Smith. Remember the positive drug test before the draft? Well, he drew a 50 game suspension for testing positive in 2017. His absence was delayed by a fractured hand suffered in spring training. He pitched exclusively out of the bullpen in 2018. Grade: C. Gets credit for bringing back Will Smith in the trade. Could still be successful in the Brewers organization.
19. Kevin Newman, Pirates, College, SS: AAA: .302/.350/.407, 4 HR, 28 SB, 6.5 BB%, 23/7 K%, 477 PA. MLB: .209/.247/.231, 4.1 BB%, 23.7 K%, 97 PA. High contact MI. Rough MLB debut. Should get more opportunities. Grade B.
20. Richie Martin, A's, College, SS: AA: .300/.368/.439, 6 HR, 25 SB, 8.6 BB%, 16.9 K%, 509 PA. Under-the-radar prospect for the A's. Should move up to AAA after a nice AA season. Grade B.
So, there you have it. You don't have to go down to Walker Buehler at #24 to find a better pick than Phil Bickford. Both Kevin Newman and Richie Martin, college hitters drafted in the next 2 slots probably would have been better picks too.
Scouting the Draft: 2015 Draft Review(Round 1, Picks 1-10)
It's still a bit early to fully evaluate the 2015 draft as most of the HS draftees and some of the college draftees are still in the minor leagues. We'll start with a review of Round 1 with updates on the progress of each player by listing their 2018 level and stat line, then assign a letter grade to the pick, just for fun. The Giants pick at #18 was Phil Bickford, another high profile pitching prospect who failed to sign out of HS with the Blue Jays. Jumping ahead just a bit, he tested positive for MJ on the eve of the draft. The Giants picked him anyway. More on that later. On with the list!
1. Dansby Swanson, D'Backs, College SS: MLB(Braves)- .238/.304/.395, 14 HR, 10 SB, fWAR- 1.9. Drafted #1 overall then infamously traded to the Braves by Dave Stewart for Shelby Miller. Solid defensive SS but has disappointed so far at the plate. Underwent surgery on his left wrist at the end of the season. Grade B.
2. Alex Bregman, Astros, College SS: MLB- .286/.394/.532, 31 HR, 10 SB, 13.6 BB%, 12.1 K%, fWAR-7.6. Bregman was a Shankbone fave coming out of HS who improved his stock immensely in college. Smashing success for the Astros with an MVP caliber season in his 2'nd full MLB campaign despite shifting to 3B almost immediately after turning pro. Grade A!
3. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies, HS SS: AA- .275/.342/.493, 17 HR, 12 SB, 7.5 BB%, 18.9 K%, 402 PA. AAA- .232/.264/.290, 1.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 72 PA. Has steadily worked his way up the draft and had a solid AA season. struggled in a late promo to AAA. Still needs some seasoning but most analysts still think he's going to be a star. Grade B+ with upside.
4. Dillon Tate, Rangers, College RHP: AA(Yankees)- 5-2, 3.38, 82.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.72 BB/9. AA(Orioles)- 2-3, 5.75, 40.2 IP, 4.65 K/9, 1.99 BB/9. Lit up radar guns for UCSB his junior year. performance mostly disappointing in the pros and has already been traded twice. Grade D.
5. Kyle Tucker, Astros, HS, OF: AAA- .332/.400/.590, 24 HR, 20 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.1 K%, 465 PA. MLB- .141/.236/.203, 8.3 BB%, 18.1 K%, BABIP- .176, 72 PA. fWAR- -0.7. Raked in AAA but struggled after callup to MLB and got sent back down. MLB struggles appear to be purely BABIP related. Probably just needs more playing time to get his feet on the ground. Grade B with upside but a small bust potential.
6. Tyler Jay, Twins, College LHP: AA- 4-5, 4.22, 59.2 IP, 7.39 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 2 Saves. Small LHP who was a "pop up" draft prospect. Some analysts thought he profiled as a lefty reliever out of the draft and that appears to be where he's headed. Made just 2 Starts out of 38 appearances. Grade C-.
7. Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox, College OF: .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 10.7 BB%, 16 K%, 661 PA. fWAR- 4.3. Covechatter wanted the Giants to draft this kid so bad, but his junior year college performance boosted him out of the Giants reach. Has been everything Covechatter dreamed of. Grade A.
8. Carson Fulmer, White Sox, College RHP. AAA- 5-6, 5.32, 67.2 IP, 8.25 K/9, 5.45 BB/9. MLB- 2-4, 8.07, 32.1 IP, 8.07 K/9, 6.68 BB/9. Drafted way above fellow Vanderbilt RHP Walker Buehler. Has struggled in the pros and gotten blown out in the majors, mostly due to poor control/command. Starting to look a bit busty. Grade D.
9. Ian Happ, Cubs, College OF/2B. MLB- .233/.353/.408, 15 HR, 8 SB, 15.2 BB%, 36.1 K%, 462 PA. 3 true outcomes guy. BA suppressed by frighteningly high K%. K rate should come down with more experience. Could probably benefit from being a bit more aggressive early in the count. I could see him being a trade target for Farhan Zaidi, but the Cubs won't give him away. Grade B+(with upside).
10. Cornelius Randolph, Phillies, HS SS. AA- .241/.324/.322, 5 HR, 3 SB, 10.3 BB%, 19.8 K%, 465 PA. Currently listed as OF which is a negative. Peripherals look good. Still has time to develop. About where you would expect a #10 HS prospect to be in his development, but numbers would project much better as a SS. Grade C(so far).
1. Dansby Swanson, D'Backs, College SS: MLB(Braves)- .238/.304/.395, 14 HR, 10 SB, fWAR- 1.9. Drafted #1 overall then infamously traded to the Braves by Dave Stewart for Shelby Miller. Solid defensive SS but has disappointed so far at the plate. Underwent surgery on his left wrist at the end of the season. Grade B.
2. Alex Bregman, Astros, College SS: MLB- .286/.394/.532, 31 HR, 10 SB, 13.6 BB%, 12.1 K%, fWAR-7.6. Bregman was a Shankbone fave coming out of HS who improved his stock immensely in college. Smashing success for the Astros with an MVP caliber season in his 2'nd full MLB campaign despite shifting to 3B almost immediately after turning pro. Grade A!
3. Brendan Rodgers, Rockies, HS SS: AA- .275/.342/.493, 17 HR, 12 SB, 7.5 BB%, 18.9 K%, 402 PA. AAA- .232/.264/.290, 1.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 72 PA. Has steadily worked his way up the draft and had a solid AA season. struggled in a late promo to AAA. Still needs some seasoning but most analysts still think he's going to be a star. Grade B+ with upside.
4. Dillon Tate, Rangers, College RHP: AA(Yankees)- 5-2, 3.38, 82.2 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.72 BB/9. AA(Orioles)- 2-3, 5.75, 40.2 IP, 4.65 K/9, 1.99 BB/9. Lit up radar guns for UCSB his junior year. performance mostly disappointing in the pros and has already been traded twice. Grade D.
5. Kyle Tucker, Astros, HS, OF: AAA- .332/.400/.590, 24 HR, 20 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.1 K%, 465 PA. MLB- .141/.236/.203, 8.3 BB%, 18.1 K%, BABIP- .176, 72 PA. fWAR- -0.7. Raked in AAA but struggled after callup to MLB and got sent back down. MLB struggles appear to be purely BABIP related. Probably just needs more playing time to get his feet on the ground. Grade B with upside but a small bust potential.
6. Tyler Jay, Twins, College LHP: AA- 4-5, 4.22, 59.2 IP, 7.39 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 2 Saves. Small LHP who was a "pop up" draft prospect. Some analysts thought he profiled as a lefty reliever out of the draft and that appears to be where he's headed. Made just 2 Starts out of 38 appearances. Grade C-.
7. Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox, College OF: .290/.366/.465, 16 HR, 21 SB, 10.7 BB%, 16 K%, 661 PA. fWAR- 4.3. Covechatter wanted the Giants to draft this kid so bad, but his junior year college performance boosted him out of the Giants reach. Has been everything Covechatter dreamed of. Grade A.
8. Carson Fulmer, White Sox, College RHP. AAA- 5-6, 5.32, 67.2 IP, 8.25 K/9, 5.45 BB/9. MLB- 2-4, 8.07, 32.1 IP, 8.07 K/9, 6.68 BB/9. Drafted way above fellow Vanderbilt RHP Walker Buehler. Has struggled in the pros and gotten blown out in the majors, mostly due to poor control/command. Starting to look a bit busty. Grade D.
9. Ian Happ, Cubs, College OF/2B. MLB- .233/.353/.408, 15 HR, 8 SB, 15.2 BB%, 36.1 K%, 462 PA. 3 true outcomes guy. BA suppressed by frighteningly high K%. K rate should come down with more experience. Could probably benefit from being a bit more aggressive early in the count. I could see him being a trade target for Farhan Zaidi, but the Cubs won't give him away. Grade B+(with upside).
10. Cornelius Randolph, Phillies, HS SS. AA- .241/.324/.322, 5 HR, 3 SB, 10.3 BB%, 19.8 K%, 465 PA. Currently listed as OF which is a negative. Peripherals look good. Still has time to develop. About where you would expect a #10 HS prospect to be in his development, but numbers would project much better as a SS. Grade C(so far).
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Scouting the Offseason: What We Might Expect From Farhan Zaidi
Just like statistics can give you an idea of what to expect from a ballplayer, they might also tell you something about the behavior of they guy picking the players. Let's take a look at Farhan Zaidi's history and see if we can find a few tea leaves to read. While it is almost impossible to discern individual players he may acquire, we might be able to see some trends in his historical actions and from his statements. So, what can we look forward to this offseason?
1. No big contracts! Don't expect to see Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in a Giants uniform next year. The largest contract given out during Zaidi's 4 year tenure with the Dodgers was to Kenley Jansen for 5 years/$80 M and I'm guessing Zaidi is kicking himself for that one as I write this! If we do see Bryce in a Giants uniform next year, it's fairly safe to say that was an ownership driven signing.
2. Cheap Power. Zaidi openly says he loves power and keeps bringing up Khris Davis as his ideal trade scenario. Guess what, prior to his acquisition by the A's, Davis was a guy with a very similar profile as Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy. Expect to see someone along those lines manning LF next season. One guy who isn't far from that profile who is already in the Giants organization? Mac Williamson! Chris Shaw might be an internal option that catches Zaidi's fancy too.
3. Stockpile SP's who come with an injury discount. No Patrick Corbins for us! Expect to see a few bounceback candidates and guys who can pitch but need limited innings. I'll say Tyson Ross is a typical example.
4. Dumpster dive for the bullpen. Zaidi's history with the Dodgers was to skimp on the bullpen. Again, his one big signing was Jansen and I bet he regrets that! Now, that approach my come back to bite him in the postseason, but you have to get there first and Zaidi seems to be a guy who wants to invest his resources in other areas.
1. No big contracts! Don't expect to see Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in a Giants uniform next year. The largest contract given out during Zaidi's 4 year tenure with the Dodgers was to Kenley Jansen for 5 years/$80 M and I'm guessing Zaidi is kicking himself for that one as I write this! If we do see Bryce in a Giants uniform next year, it's fairly safe to say that was an ownership driven signing.
2. Cheap Power. Zaidi openly says he loves power and keeps bringing up Khris Davis as his ideal trade scenario. Guess what, prior to his acquisition by the A's, Davis was a guy with a very similar profile as Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy. Expect to see someone along those lines manning LF next season. One guy who isn't far from that profile who is already in the Giants organization? Mac Williamson! Chris Shaw might be an internal option that catches Zaidi's fancy too.
3. Stockpile SP's who come with an injury discount. No Patrick Corbins for us! Expect to see a few bounceback candidates and guys who can pitch but need limited innings. I'll say Tyson Ross is a typical example.
4. Dumpster dive for the bullpen. Zaidi's history with the Dodgers was to skimp on the bullpen. Again, his one big signing was Jansen and I bet he regrets that! Now, that approach my come back to bite him in the postseason, but you have to get there first and Zaidi seems to be a guy who wants to invest his resources in other areas.
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2014 Draft Retrospective
We are starting to get into territory where it is harder to draw conclusions because not enough time has elapsed to see the ultimate development of the drafted players, but we'll forge ahead anyway. For Giants fans, this draft became very difficult to swallow last year as #14 overall pick, Tyler Beede, suffered a complete collapse which lasted all season and his future, while possibly not completely hopeless is looking none too bright.
Giants fans are not the only ones frustrated with this draft as the top 2, Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek also appear to be headed to bustville. Top pick Aiken was not signed by the Astros after concerns were raised during his physical. Those concerns were proven to be well founded when he underwent TJ surgery after being removed from his first and only start for IMF Academy. He had a so-so season for the Indians Midwest League team in 2018. Kolek was always a TJ waiting to happen as he threw in triple digits but didn't have a lot else going for him. #3 Carlos Rodon got to the majors quickly but has struggled to establish himself with the White Sox.
Kyle Schwarber had close to an immediate impact for the Cubs but struggles for a place to play due to defensive deficiencies. Aaron Nola(#7) and Kyle Freeland(#8) appear to be college pitching successs stories and the best player in the draft, once again, was taking just 1 pick ahead of the Giants as Trea Turner went to the Padres who flipped him to the Nationals.
Then we come to Tyler Beede at #14. This is where you can start to question John Barr's draft philosophy as he has shown a strong tendency to favor players with long resumes and Beede had been on scouting radars for a long time. He was the Blue Jays first round pick 3 years before out of HS. The rap on Beede was poor command which is another area where the Giants have tended to possibly over-believe in their own ability to "fix" pitchers with command issues.
Touki Toussaint was probably the most popular fan pick still on the board at this point, but he was a HS pitcher with command issues of his own. Sean Newcomb, a late rising college lefty went to the Angels at #15 and Touki went to the D'Backs at #16. Ironically, both Newcomb and Touki are now with the Braves after being traded by their drafting team. While Beede could still make a comeback and justify his draft position, it's currently looking like either Newcomb or Touki would have been better choices. Brandon Finnegan at #17 made an immediate impact, but has struggled since. After that the drop-off is rather dramatic.
The next 7 picks were Erick Fedde RHP, Nick Howard RHP, Casey Gillaspie 1B, Bradley Zimmer OF, Grant Holmes RHP, Derek Hill OF, and Cole Tucker SS.
Matt Chapman has had surprising success with the A's out of the #25 slot. Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty show promise from #27 and #34 respectively. Michael Kopech has wowed prospect watchers with triple digit heat but predictably underwent TJ surgery late in 2018.
There is still plenty of hope in the 2014 draft for Giants fans as Aramis Garcia(2), Dylan Davis(3), Logan Webb(4), Sam Coonrod(5), Austin Slater(8), Stetson Woods(9) and Jordan Johnson(23) remain in the organization with varying degrees of success. Garcia has a great shot at a significant MLB career given the weakness in the current cohort of MLB catchers. Webb showed great promise out of TJ surgery in 2018 and could be ready to help as soon as midseason 2019. Austin Slater has had his moments, but is a guy who might benefit from a re-tool of his swing to give him more power.
Conclusion: Final returns are not in yet, but this is looking like a draft where the Giants could have done better, specifically Sean Newcomb or Touki Toussaint were likely better picks than Tyler Beede in the first round.
Giants fans are not the only ones frustrated with this draft as the top 2, Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek also appear to be headed to bustville. Top pick Aiken was not signed by the Astros after concerns were raised during his physical. Those concerns were proven to be well founded when he underwent TJ surgery after being removed from his first and only start for IMF Academy. He had a so-so season for the Indians Midwest League team in 2018. Kolek was always a TJ waiting to happen as he threw in triple digits but didn't have a lot else going for him. #3 Carlos Rodon got to the majors quickly but has struggled to establish himself with the White Sox.
Kyle Schwarber had close to an immediate impact for the Cubs but struggles for a place to play due to defensive deficiencies. Aaron Nola(#7) and Kyle Freeland(#8) appear to be college pitching successs stories and the best player in the draft, once again, was taking just 1 pick ahead of the Giants as Trea Turner went to the Padres who flipped him to the Nationals.
Then we come to Tyler Beede at #14. This is where you can start to question John Barr's draft philosophy as he has shown a strong tendency to favor players with long resumes and Beede had been on scouting radars for a long time. He was the Blue Jays first round pick 3 years before out of HS. The rap on Beede was poor command which is another area where the Giants have tended to possibly over-believe in their own ability to "fix" pitchers with command issues.
Touki Toussaint was probably the most popular fan pick still on the board at this point, but he was a HS pitcher with command issues of his own. Sean Newcomb, a late rising college lefty went to the Angels at #15 and Touki went to the D'Backs at #16. Ironically, both Newcomb and Touki are now with the Braves after being traded by their drafting team. While Beede could still make a comeback and justify his draft position, it's currently looking like either Newcomb or Touki would have been better choices. Brandon Finnegan at #17 made an immediate impact, but has struggled since. After that the drop-off is rather dramatic.
The next 7 picks were Erick Fedde RHP, Nick Howard RHP, Casey Gillaspie 1B, Bradley Zimmer OF, Grant Holmes RHP, Derek Hill OF, and Cole Tucker SS.
Matt Chapman has had surprising success with the A's out of the #25 slot. Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty show promise from #27 and #34 respectively. Michael Kopech has wowed prospect watchers with triple digit heat but predictably underwent TJ surgery late in 2018.
There is still plenty of hope in the 2014 draft for Giants fans as Aramis Garcia(2), Dylan Davis(3), Logan Webb(4), Sam Coonrod(5), Austin Slater(8), Stetson Woods(9) and Jordan Johnson(23) remain in the organization with varying degrees of success. Garcia has a great shot at a significant MLB career given the weakness in the current cohort of MLB catchers. Webb showed great promise out of TJ surgery in 2018 and could be ready to help as soon as midseason 2019. Austin Slater has had his moments, but is a guy who might benefit from a re-tool of his swing to give him more power.
Conclusion: Final returns are not in yet, but this is looking like a draft where the Giants could have done better, specifically Sean Newcomb or Touki Toussaint were likely better picks than Tyler Beede in the first round.
Scouting the Offseason: Catching Crisis?
After the Mariners recent trade of Mike Zunino to the Rays for Mallex Smith leaving them without a reasonable option at C, it seemed like the general reaction was "oh well, they will just sign a FA or trade for a replacement catcher. That got me to thinking about just who the Mariners might sign or trade for. That's when it hit me that MLB appears to be headed for a positional crisis at catcher around the league.
Here's the landscape: JT Realmuto, currently with the Marlins, is in a tier by himself, then you have a handful of teams who seem set for at least 1-2 more years at the position. This list would include the Royals(Salvador Perez), Cubs(Willson Contreras), Reds(Tucker Barnhart and Cardinals(Yadier Molina). The Giants might be set with Buster Posey, but he'll be coming off major surgery on his hip. Gary Sanchez has potential to be a superstar with the Yankees, but is coming off a rough season both offensively and defensively and recently underwent surgery himself. His future at catcher is far from certain.
Once you get past that group, there is a vast field of what can best be described as journeyman catchers, guys who are maybe good at pitch framing and not much else. Many of them flirted with the Mendoza Line last season. There are at least 3 teams whose current rosters lack a catcher with significant MLB experience: Mariners, Rangers and Nationals. There are several others who could best be described as close to crisis status:
A's: Josh Phegley- BA= .204, 93 AB.
Astros: Max Stassi(,226) and Chris Herrman(claimed off waivers).
Tigers: James McCann(.220) and Grayson Greiner(.219).
Braves: Tyler Flowers(.227)
Mets: Travis d'Arnaud(.200), Kevin Plawecki(.210).
Orioles: Caleb Joseph(.219), Chance Sisco(.181).
Red Sox: Christian Vazquez(.207) and Sandy Leon(.177).
D'Backs: Alex Avila(.165) and John Ryan Murphy(.202).
Rockies: Chris Iannetta(.224), Tony Wolters(.170) and Tom Murphy(.226).
Austin Barnes may be a fan favorite in LA, but he hit just .2015 last season and Yasmani Grandal is a free agent who is apparently unlikely to be back.
So my first question whenever I see a comment about filling a catch need with a trade is what trade? Who are you going to trade for in this market that's an upgrade on anything? JT Realmuto, who the Marlins can practically name their asking price for? OK, good luck with that!
Here is a list of available free agents at the catcher position:
Yasmani Grandal, age 30- probably the top guy on the market. How much did his postseason struggles hurt his stock?
Wilson Ramos, age 31- A terrific player when healthy. Has rarely stayed healthy for a full season and the injuries have to be starting to take a toll on his body.
Devin Mesoraco, age 31- Seems to still be able to hit, but has spent the last several seasons mostly injured and struggles on defense.
Others(ages in parentheses): Drew Butera(35), Robinson Chirinos(35), AJ Ellis(38), Chris Gimenez(36), Nick Hundley(35), Jose Lobaton(34), Jonathan Lucroy(33), Martin Maldonado(32), Jeff Mathis(36), Brian McCann(35), Rene Rivera(35), Kurt Suzuki(35), Stephen Vogt(34), Matt Wieders(33), Bobby Wilson(36).
See anyone you like in that list?
There are just 4 catchers in the MLB Pipeline Top 100:
#23 Joey Bart, Giants (Short Season)
#26 Francisco Mejia, Padres (C/OF)
#39 Keibert Ruiz, Dodgers (AA)
#47 Sean Murphy A's (AA)
I scoured the AAA and AA rosters for other possible catching prospects and found pretty much nothing. MLB is rapidly heading for a situation where there may not be enough catchers who are capable of playing the position at he MLB level.
Here's the landscape: JT Realmuto, currently with the Marlins, is in a tier by himself, then you have a handful of teams who seem set for at least 1-2 more years at the position. This list would include the Royals(Salvador Perez), Cubs(Willson Contreras), Reds(Tucker Barnhart and Cardinals(Yadier Molina). The Giants might be set with Buster Posey, but he'll be coming off major surgery on his hip. Gary Sanchez has potential to be a superstar with the Yankees, but is coming off a rough season both offensively and defensively and recently underwent surgery himself. His future at catcher is far from certain.
Once you get past that group, there is a vast field of what can best be described as journeyman catchers, guys who are maybe good at pitch framing and not much else. Many of them flirted with the Mendoza Line last season. There are at least 3 teams whose current rosters lack a catcher with significant MLB experience: Mariners, Rangers and Nationals. There are several others who could best be described as close to crisis status:
A's: Josh Phegley- BA= .204, 93 AB.
Astros: Max Stassi(,226) and Chris Herrman(claimed off waivers).
Tigers: James McCann(.220) and Grayson Greiner(.219).
Braves: Tyler Flowers(.227)
Mets: Travis d'Arnaud(.200), Kevin Plawecki(.210).
Orioles: Caleb Joseph(.219), Chance Sisco(.181).
Red Sox: Christian Vazquez(.207) and Sandy Leon(.177).
D'Backs: Alex Avila(.165) and John Ryan Murphy(.202).
Rockies: Chris Iannetta(.224), Tony Wolters(.170) and Tom Murphy(.226).
Austin Barnes may be a fan favorite in LA, but he hit just .2015 last season and Yasmani Grandal is a free agent who is apparently unlikely to be back.
So my first question whenever I see a comment about filling a catch need with a trade is what trade? Who are you going to trade for in this market that's an upgrade on anything? JT Realmuto, who the Marlins can practically name their asking price for? OK, good luck with that!
Here is a list of available free agents at the catcher position:
Yasmani Grandal, age 30- probably the top guy on the market. How much did his postseason struggles hurt his stock?
Wilson Ramos, age 31- A terrific player when healthy. Has rarely stayed healthy for a full season and the injuries have to be starting to take a toll on his body.
Devin Mesoraco, age 31- Seems to still be able to hit, but has spent the last several seasons mostly injured and struggles on defense.
Others(ages in parentheses): Drew Butera(35), Robinson Chirinos(35), AJ Ellis(38), Chris Gimenez(36), Nick Hundley(35), Jose Lobaton(34), Jonathan Lucroy(33), Martin Maldonado(32), Jeff Mathis(36), Brian McCann(35), Rene Rivera(35), Kurt Suzuki(35), Stephen Vogt(34), Matt Wieders(33), Bobby Wilson(36).
See anyone you like in that list?
There are just 4 catchers in the MLB Pipeline Top 100:
#23 Joey Bart, Giants (Short Season)
#26 Francisco Mejia, Padres (C/OF)
#39 Keibert Ruiz, Dodgers (AA)
#47 Sean Murphy A's (AA)
I scoured the AAA and AA rosters for other possible catching prospects and found pretty much nothing. MLB is rapidly heading for a situation where there may not be enough catchers who are capable of playing the position at he MLB level.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Scouting the Draft: 2013 Retrospective
The 2013 draft has proven to be extremely weak. The two stars so far are Kris Bryant who went to the Cubs at #2 and Aaron Judge to the Yanks at #32. The #1 overall, Mark Appel, was ultimately one of the bigger busts in draft history. Beyond that, there are isolated islands of success but not very many. Colin Moran at #6, Hunter Renfroe at #13 and Tim Anderson at #17 have had limited success but are still far from being considered stars.
The Giants famously drafted Christian Arroyo at #25 prompting jokes and laughter from the TV commentators. Arroyo looked good coming up through the Giants farm system but did a face plant when he was rushed up from AAA to fill a gap left by injury. He was then traded to the Rays for Evan Longoria which was not a terrible trade in the short term, but probably ill-advised in the longterm. Arroyo still has a chance to be good and the Giants are stuck with Longoria's contract for 4 more years.
As you look down the draft list from Arroyo there is Judge at #32 and then pretty much nothing. It was just a very weak draft. Going through the rest of the Giants draft, Ryder Jones(2), Chase Johnson(3), Dan Slania(5), Tyler Rogers(10), Johneshwy Fargas(11), Jonah Arenado(16), Jake McCasland(26), Michael Connolly(27), Dusten Knight(28), John Riley(31), and Rayan Hernandez(34) are still in the organization. Ryan Kirby(40) did not sign out of HS and the Giants drafted him again in a later draft out of college.
Conclusion: Aaron Judge aside, the Giants probably drafted as well as they could have in the 2013 draft. It is unlikely a different scouting team would have done better. It remains to be seen if the Giants gave up on Christian Arroyo too soon.
The Giants famously drafted Christian Arroyo at #25 prompting jokes and laughter from the TV commentators. Arroyo looked good coming up through the Giants farm system but did a face plant when he was rushed up from AAA to fill a gap left by injury. He was then traded to the Rays for Evan Longoria which was not a terrible trade in the short term, but probably ill-advised in the longterm. Arroyo still has a chance to be good and the Giants are stuck with Longoria's contract for 4 more years.
As you look down the draft list from Arroyo there is Judge at #32 and then pretty much nothing. It was just a very weak draft. Going through the rest of the Giants draft, Ryder Jones(2), Chase Johnson(3), Dan Slania(5), Tyler Rogers(10), Johneshwy Fargas(11), Jonah Arenado(16), Jake McCasland(26), Michael Connolly(27), Dusten Knight(28), John Riley(31), and Rayan Hernandez(34) are still in the organization. Ryan Kirby(40) did not sign out of HS and the Giants drafted him again in a later draft out of college.
Conclusion: Aaron Judge aside, the Giants probably drafted as well as they could have in the 2013 draft. It is unlikely a different scouting team would have done better. It remains to be seen if the Giants gave up on Christian Arroyo too soon.
Friday, November 9, 2018
Thoughts on Turner, Taylor and Muncy
The most intriguing subplot in the Dodgers current run of success in the NL West is the emergence of 3 players, who other organizations essentially gave up on, into All-Star level production. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be writing about Dodgers random success stories on this blog, but now the Giants have hired former Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi to be their head honcho in charge of all baseball operations. Now we want to know what role he played in finding those 3 players and what he might have seen in them that led to their acquisition. I spent part of last night and this morning scouring each player's Fangraphs stat page trying to pick up patterns. What I found were some definite similarities but also some differences. Let's break it down:
Justin Turner: Turner came to the Dodgers in 2014 which I believe is a year before the new regime took over. It is also well known that Turner worked with a private hitting coach on his own to change himself from a groundball predominant hitter to a flyball hitter. The only thing I can add to that is he maintained K rates under 20% throughout his minor and major league career and has lowered them even more to an astounding 10% in the last 2 years while maintaining walk rates in the 5-10% range which is pretty average.
Chris Taylor: I remember Taylor getting attention from stats oriented websites when he was in the Mariners organization. He maintained BB% over 10 with K% under 20 through his minor league career with flashes of power. Those ratios proved elusive in major league action with K/BB of around 25/8 being typical even after moving to the Dodgers. I don't know if Taylor consulted with Justin Turner's private hitting coach but the most dramatic change in his stat line was a flipping of his GB/FB ratio from around 1.5 or more to 0.86 in 2018.
Max Muncy: Muncy came up through the A's organization and he was more of a ready-made product. He maintained BB% greater than 10 with K% less than 20 throughout his minor league career. He also had a strong flyball tendency throughout his minor league career. It is therefore not clear why he enjoyed such a huge power spike in 2018 and in the majors. Maybe he just learned to swing harder?
Conclusion: Although Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy are not exact clones of each other and arrived at their breakouts by slightly different paths, the common characteristics seem to be high walk rate combined with relatively low K rate and getting the ball in the air more than on the ground.
Justin Turner: Turner came to the Dodgers in 2014 which I believe is a year before the new regime took over. It is also well known that Turner worked with a private hitting coach on his own to change himself from a groundball predominant hitter to a flyball hitter. The only thing I can add to that is he maintained K rates under 20% throughout his minor and major league career and has lowered them even more to an astounding 10% in the last 2 years while maintaining walk rates in the 5-10% range which is pretty average.
Chris Taylor: I remember Taylor getting attention from stats oriented websites when he was in the Mariners organization. He maintained BB% over 10 with K% under 20 through his minor league career with flashes of power. Those ratios proved elusive in major league action with K/BB of around 25/8 being typical even after moving to the Dodgers. I don't know if Taylor consulted with Justin Turner's private hitting coach but the most dramatic change in his stat line was a flipping of his GB/FB ratio from around 1.5 or more to 0.86 in 2018.
Max Muncy: Muncy came up through the A's organization and he was more of a ready-made product. He maintained BB% greater than 10 with K% less than 20 throughout his minor league career. He also had a strong flyball tendency throughout his minor league career. It is therefore not clear why he enjoyed such a huge power spike in 2018 and in the majors. Maybe he just learned to swing harder?
Conclusion: Although Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy are not exact clones of each other and arrived at their breakouts by slightly different paths, the common characteristics seem to be high walk rate combined with relatively low K rate and getting the ball in the air more than on the ground.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Hot Stove Update: Trader Jerry Fires Up the Hot Stove
Trader Jerry Dipoto fired up the hot stove with a multi-player trade with the Rays, another team that likes to stay active on the offseason. The trade sends C Mike Zunino, OF Guillermo Heredia and minor league LHP Michael Plassmeyer from the Mariners for OF Mallex Smith and minor league OF Jake Fraley. Zunino and Smith are the two most recognizable names on the list.
Mike Zunino is a former first round draft pick, #3 overall in 2012 out Florida. He is known as a superior defensive catcher with "light tower power", but has horrific K and BB rates. His 2018 was disappointing with just a 1.5 fWAR after a 3.7 in 2017. The Rays were in need of a catcher since Wilson Ramos is headed into free agency. They had been rumored to be a possible destination for JT Realmuto, but Realmuto would have cost a much bigger haul in return than Zunino. Zunino will almost certainly be the Rays starting C with Realmuto going elsewhere or staying put in Miami this winter.
Guillermo Heredia is a light-hitting OF who is subpar on defense and doesn't steal bases. He may be passable as a 4'th OF. Michael Plassmeyer was drafted in the 4'th round in 2018 after putting up a 103/17 K/BB in 91 IP in college. He continued that goodness with a 44/4 ratio in 24 IP for the Everett Aquasox in the NWL. I don't know what kind of stuff he has but you have to pay attention to those secondary stats.
This is the second time Trader Jerry acquired Mallex Smith. The last time was from the Braves and Jerry flipped him within hours to the Rays in a trade I criticized at the time. Smith emerged in 2018 as a rare player who combines elite SB speed with strong OBP skills putting up an fWAR of 3.4. Despite those very nice numbers, he might not have been a starting OF with the Rays who also have Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermeier and Austin Meadows on their roster although Pham is coming off a disappointing season while Meadows has never quite established himself as an MLB OF.
Jake Fraley was a compensation round pick in 2016 out of LSU. He put up a huge slash line of .347/.415/547 in 2018 for the Rays A+ level team after a terrible 2017 campaign. The slash line came with a BB% of 10.0 and a K% of 16.9 both quite good.
I like this trade from the Mariners standpoint. Although Zunino has value, it's limited by his horrific secondary numbers. While catching is generally a thin position, he can be replaced either by another trade or FA signing like Wilson Ramos! Mallex Smith looks like a potential elite leadoff hitter. Safeco Field is still a tough park for hitters and DiPoto appears to be trying to construct a roster that plays to the Park. With Smith, the Mariners now have the #3, #10(Dee Gordon) and #21(Jean Segura) MLB SB leaders from 2018. I have advocated for the Giants to acquire SB guys to play in AT&T Park if they are going to eschew power, so I am a fan of this approach.
Plassmeyer for Fraley is a fairly even deal but I think you have to favor the hitter in that swap.
Conclusion: Trader Jerry wins this deal.
Mike Zunino is a former first round draft pick, #3 overall in 2012 out Florida. He is known as a superior defensive catcher with "light tower power", but has horrific K and BB rates. His 2018 was disappointing with just a 1.5 fWAR after a 3.7 in 2017. The Rays were in need of a catcher since Wilson Ramos is headed into free agency. They had been rumored to be a possible destination for JT Realmuto, but Realmuto would have cost a much bigger haul in return than Zunino. Zunino will almost certainly be the Rays starting C with Realmuto going elsewhere or staying put in Miami this winter.
Guillermo Heredia is a light-hitting OF who is subpar on defense and doesn't steal bases. He may be passable as a 4'th OF. Michael Plassmeyer was drafted in the 4'th round in 2018 after putting up a 103/17 K/BB in 91 IP in college. He continued that goodness with a 44/4 ratio in 24 IP for the Everett Aquasox in the NWL. I don't know what kind of stuff he has but you have to pay attention to those secondary stats.
This is the second time Trader Jerry acquired Mallex Smith. The last time was from the Braves and Jerry flipped him within hours to the Rays in a trade I criticized at the time. Smith emerged in 2018 as a rare player who combines elite SB speed with strong OBP skills putting up an fWAR of 3.4. Despite those very nice numbers, he might not have been a starting OF with the Rays who also have Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermeier and Austin Meadows on their roster although Pham is coming off a disappointing season while Meadows has never quite established himself as an MLB OF.
Jake Fraley was a compensation round pick in 2016 out of LSU. He put up a huge slash line of .347/.415/547 in 2018 for the Rays A+ level team after a terrible 2017 campaign. The slash line came with a BB% of 10.0 and a K% of 16.9 both quite good.
I like this trade from the Mariners standpoint. Although Zunino has value, it's limited by his horrific secondary numbers. While catching is generally a thin position, he can be replaced either by another trade or FA signing like Wilson Ramos! Mallex Smith looks like a potential elite leadoff hitter. Safeco Field is still a tough park for hitters and DiPoto appears to be trying to construct a roster that plays to the Park. With Smith, the Mariners now have the #3, #10(Dee Gordon) and #21(Jean Segura) MLB SB leaders from 2018. I have advocated for the Giants to acquire SB guys to play in AT&T Park if they are going to eschew power, so I am a fan of this approach.
Plassmeyer for Fraley is a fairly even deal but I think you have to favor the hitter in that swap.
Conclusion: Trader Jerry wins this deal.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
State of the Giants: The Brian Sabean Era Ends
The Brian Sabean Era of Giants baseball came to a definitive end today when the Giants announced that Farhan Zaidi would assume the duties of President of Baseball Operations. Both from the title and the job description of answering directly to Managing Partner Larry Baer, it is clear that Zaidi is in complete charge of baseball operations likely relegating Sabean to some sort of advisory role. Unlike Bobby Evans who was something of a Sabean protege, Zaidi comes from outside with a decidedly different mindset about how to build a team and from a background of success with cross-bay A's and the archival Dodgers. In other words, he will not be beholden to Brian Sabean or anyone else in the Giants organization but Baer and the ownership group.
It is hard to argue with Zaidi's track record and credentials. He stands firmly on the analytical side of baseball management to the point of reportedly dictating lineup construction to the manager and micromanaging in-game decision making. You have to wonder how much longer Bruce Bochy has to be Manager in an environment like that!
The Giants as an organization appear to be in desperate need of new ideas and Zaidi is definitely new. My hope is he can bring the analytical ideas without compromising the scouting side. Hopefully his ideas will assist and augment the scouting rather than replacing it.
I had hoped Kim Ng would get the job but it seems clear the Giants targeted Zaidi all along and were marking time until the Dodgers season was over. If the only reason Teams continue to interview Ng for GM positions is to check off a box for diversity, they need to just stop. I have to say, Zaidi has his own diversity credentials as he is Pakistani and is the first Muslim American to be named to run a MLB team's baseball operations.
I wish him the best and will be watching his moves with great anticipation.
It is hard to argue with Zaidi's track record and credentials. He stands firmly on the analytical side of baseball management to the point of reportedly dictating lineup construction to the manager and micromanaging in-game decision making. You have to wonder how much longer Bruce Bochy has to be Manager in an environment like that!
The Giants as an organization appear to be in desperate need of new ideas and Zaidi is definitely new. My hope is he can bring the analytical ideas without compromising the scouting side. Hopefully his ideas will assist and augment the scouting rather than replacing it.
I had hoped Kim Ng would get the job but it seems clear the Giants targeted Zaidi all along and were marking time until the Dodgers season was over. If the only reason Teams continue to interview Ng for GM positions is to check off a box for diversity, they need to just stop. I have to say, Zaidi has his own diversity credentials as he is Pakistani and is the first Muslim American to be named to run a MLB team's baseball operations.
I wish him the best and will be watching his moves with great anticipation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
