The most recent Ask BA has an interesting question and answer from Jim Callis. His response reinforced my impression that this draft may be weak at the very top, but is actually fairly deep. The question was what draft eligible players for 2013 are "true" first round talents. In other words, would they be drafted in the first round of any draft? Callis responded with a total of 24 players plus several more honorable mentions that a case could be made for. Here's his list:
Top Tier(2): Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford; Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma(remember when we all thought we'd found a sleeper in Jonathan Gray? Not anymore!)
HS Position Players(9): Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows, Reese McGuire(C), JP Crawford(SS), Jonathan Denney(C), Dominic Smith, Billy McKinney, Ryan Boldt, Nick Ciuffo.
College Hitters(5): Kris Bryant, Colin Moran, DJ Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Phillip Ervin.
College Pitchers(4): Sean Manaea, Ryne Stanek, Braden Shipley, Chris Anderson.
HS Pitchers(4): Kohl Stewart, Trey Ball, Ian Clarkin, Hunter Harvey.
"Honorable Mention"(my term, not Callis'): Austin Wilson(OF), Aaron Judge(OF), Michael Lorenzen(OF), Marco Gonzalez(LHP), Tom Windle(LHP), Kevin Ziomek(LHP), Rob Kaminsky(LHP), Matt Krook(LHP).
Guys I think could fall to #25: DJ Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Phillip Ervin, Braden Shipley, Chris Anderson.
Out of that bunch, I would say Anderson fits the Giants mold best. Renfroe seems like he might be a John Barr fave. Out of the HM's, Austin Wilson is a mighty, mighty intriguing name. The Giants have never taken a soft tossing LHP with their first pick which makes Gonzalez, Windle and Ziomek unlikely. I don't know enough about Kaminsky or Krook to comment.
There is a huge pool of HS RHP's that all slot right in behind the top 24, any of which could easily be a target for the Giants.
BA's Conor Glassey did a draft preview of all 15 NL Teams. Some of the names he specifically mentioned in the Giants entry were SEC college RHP's Ryan Eades or Bobby Wahl, Ziomek, Austin Wilson, Aaron Judge and Krook.
For more draft talk, visit Shankbone's blog You Gotta Like These Kids linked over to the left.
In other news: Baggs seems to think Francisco Peguero is going to get the call for the weekend series against the Dodgers with Hector being sent down for more salt. If that is the case, I hope they give him the starts against the LHP's. I just don't see the point of calling up a red hot talent like Peguero only to let him cool off on the bench. I guess I'll just never forget Bobby Bonds hitting a grand slam HR in his first MLB game to beat the Dodgers!
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I'll be surprised if they take Michael Lorenzon in the 1st round.. He's a good athlete and a two way player..He threw 95 MPH closing out last Sunday's game against Hawaii.. They already took another Fullerton CF in 2010 in the 1st round, Gary Brown. I''ll be happy if they take a College pitcher like Ryan Eades instead.
ReplyDeleteLG
Thanks for the shout out. Noah Lowry! Sort of a soft-tosser, end of the first in 2001. Been a long time. We've put that Lowry comp on Marco Gonzo and I think it applies to Ziomek as well. I agree, I think its unlikely the Giants go college lefty with all the other alternatives on the board in the first.
ReplyDeleteAbout Kaminsky - you have to take HS stats with a huge grain of salt but he has 7 no-hitters. That's pretty amazing. He has 2 MLB ready pitches with his curve and fastball. The only reason he's in the teens-20s is his size. He is absolutely electric and I think a great choice if he somehow lasts til 25.
I was going to bring up Noah as well. Not quite a soft-tosser but definitely not a high velocity arm either.
DeleteAnd re: Kaminsky's size, obviously, the Giants have no problem with it as long as they think he gots the stuff to get hitters out. He does sound like a great choice, I'll have to keep him on my watch list. He might fall to us given the size issue, isn't that why Agosta was available where we picked him, size? Still, 7 no-hitters is a great accomplishment to have on your resume, unless he's pitching in the boondocks, that's still tough to do.
Lowry was a long time ago and he wasn't the first player the Giants drafted that year. I think Hennessey was taken ahead of him.
DeleteBrad Henny Henn for sure. 21st overall, straight out of Youngstown. Here's a Hennessey type from a smaller school: yet another Alex Gonzalez, this one a RHP from Oral Roberts. He has a reliever label (cough cough) so he might be a guy to look for in the 3rd round on...
Deletehttp://www.orugoldeneagles.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=17000&ATCLID=205089243
" The Giants have never taken a soft tossing LHP in the first round "
DeleteLowry was in the first round and was selected by the Giants, I think that covers what was pointed out. Yes, I knew Hennessey was selected before Lowry, but that did not seem germane to the statement at hand, since Lowry was selected in the first round.
So you are going to make me liar for one guy drafted in the entire 16 years Brian Sabean has been GM? Gotta say, ogc, you are living up to your screen name here.
DeleteFellas, fellas... Hey, the Giants looked at a non-soft-tosser in 1998 but decided on the cheaper college bat one Tony Torcato.
DeleteLowry got to the show QUICK. Signed right away in June 2001, debuted in September 2003. Wore the hat well. Such a bad break on that one.
You can always find exceptions to a rule, but the Giants do not tend to take soft tossing lefties in the first round and have never made one their first pick in the draft.
DeleteI will make a flat out prediction here: A soft tossing left will not be the Giants first round pick in the 2013 draft! OK, I realize the term "soft tossing" is vague, but it pretty much covers all available college LHP's in this year's draft. Marco Gone flirts with being a power lefty, but I think even he still depends mostly on having great secondary stuff to go with an above-average heater. Like I said before, I do not know enough about Kaminsky and Krook or any of the HS kids to say whether they fit the description or not.
I'll be happy to admit I was wrong if it ends up so, but I won't necessarily be happy with the pick. I will say that another Noah Lowry would be a decent return on a #25 pick, though.
Liar?!?
DeleteReally?
All I pointed out was the Giants had selected one before. And I did not disagree with what you thought otherwise. You were the one who pushed back and changed the premise of your statement. I just pointed out that you were not making the same statement as you thought you were saying since you obviously thought you had said something else.
I got enough to worry and stress about without being accused of something I did not do. Thanks for starting off my weekend great.
Calm down, ogc. It's just an expression my mother used to lay on me from time to time if I got a little too technical with her. Sorry if it hit a nerve.
DeleteMy point was that the Giants are very unlikely to use their first draft pick on a soft tossing lefty. I was thinking of first draft picks and mistakenly said first ROUND draft picks. I stand corrected on being technicality(Lowry was the #30 pick overall, but Hennessey had been taken by the Giants earlier in the round). I just felt like you and someone else jumped all over something that was really inconsequential to my point and got a little defensive about it. Sorry.
DeleteAnd just for the record, I changed the text so now it is technically correct. Hope everybody is happy now.
Deletewhy would they bring up peggs, when they most likely will be forced to send him back when jeremy comes off the dl,as until cain and vogey are stabilized, an extra pitcher in the pen will be needed?
ReplyDeletebacci
Baggs does not think they will carry 13 pitchers when Affeldt comes back. Hector is going down to make room for Pegs. Rosario already going down to make room for Affeldt. Mijares presents a dilemma. Most likely Machi gets sent out, although he has had a yeoman performance here.
DeleteBoom: Hank Twitter: as expected at some point, optioned C Hector Sanchez to Fresno and recalled OF Francisco Peguero.
DeleteNot sure Kershaw is the best guy to throw him in against, but hey, why not? Maybe Kershaw doesn't know where Pegs holes are and maybe Pegs don't know enough to be awed by Koufax reincarnate!
Deletepegs isnt starting...torres is
Deletedont get bringing a guy up to take a seat on the bench, unless that guy is a vet
im sure that hector will be back
bacci
And how many times have we seen someone else's unknown prospect come up and get a knock against us? Perfect time to throw Pegs out, might get us some hits, couldn't be any worse than our prior efforts to hit against Kershaw.
DeleteRegarding Machi, sometimes, many times, life isn't fair in baseball. It has already been announced that Rosario has been optioned to bring back Affeldt, who said that he worked out his kinks in his mechanics while out, so that was good. I'll bet that they will let Mijares take the full 7 days off, then see where they are, but sometimes that's just how baseball goes, and ideally, that's what you want for your team, tough choices when you have so many good options to go to. And we might see someone - Kontos? - go on the 15 day DL list for something that seems minor but buys the team some time before making the hard choice.
Bacci,
DeleteI agree. If they want to sit Pegs for 1 night to let him get acclimated, fine. I can think of numerous times, though, when kids got off the plane, took a cab to the stadium, found their name on the lineup card and proceeded to crush the baseball. Sometimes the more time they have to think about it, the more nervous it makes them.
Pegs is a guy who, if they are going to call him up, should get a shot at starting. I will be disappointed if I don't see him in the starting lineup at least once this series.
Start Peggs for sure. The only guy with any game against Kershaw in the past two years is Brett Pill. Beats say a sunday start against Ryu. Better than nothing, but I'd try the Lightning in the Bottle approach for sure.
DeleteCrawford getting a break. Arias needs some ABs anyways. And for a little while, we don't have to listen to Sanchez-Belt silliness. Belt still hitting 8th btw.
FYI: Mike Newman prospect chat at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-newman-prospects-chat-5313/
ReplyDeleteNo Giants mention, but he noted that he's never been a fan of Tommy Joseph.
Thanks for the reminder. I hadn't check ToJo's number yet this year...
DeleteOuch. Lehigh is in the International League? Is that a pitching or hitting league? He is batting .213/.273/.377, so I HOPE it s a pitching league...
IL leans fairly heavily toward pitching.
Delete