Monday, April 15, 2013

Off Day AQA

We haven't done a Q/A for awhile.  Since the Giants are off today, we'll do one.  All reasonable baseball related questions answered to the best of my ability, Giants, prospects, draft, fantasy.  Hope everyone will chip in with their thoughts and make it a discussion too.
Posted by at

33 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 15, 2013 at 7:51 AM

    Afternoon (English) Doc,

    Really intrigued about all these seemingly hard-throwing relievers we seem to have in the lower minors. Bandilla, Johnson, Gardeck, Okert, Mizenko etc.

    With the season over a week in now, which of these seem to have the highest ceiling. Has anything changed since your 50 prospects at year start?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 8:40 AM

      Good question.

      Bandilla's 17 K's in 7 IP for San Jose certainly deserves attention. The Giants have even toyed with making him a starter, but the SP field is really crowded at San Jose. If they think he has starter potential, they might want to think about an early promotion to Richmond.

      Johnson has been lights out for Augusta and shown a strong groundball tendency in the process. I really like what he is doing there.

      Josh Osich is off to a nice start out of the bullpen in San Jose.

      LH Mason McVay is dominating too. He may have starter potential himself.

      I wouldn't write off any of the others just yet, but those are the 4 who really stand out in my mind in the early going here.

      Delete
  2. jjwsfgiantsApril 15, 2013 at 8:55 AM

    With Scutaro and Noonan in SF and Panik climbing the ranks, I don't see that the Giants really need Tenaka. Seems a shame that he came to the US to play in Fresno. He's off to a good start there. Is there any trade value there? What could the Giants expect in return?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 9:36 AM

      I do think Tanaka is building some trade value.

      Delete
    2. kennvApril 15, 2013 at 9:47 AM

      Arias already has a 25-man roster locked down, and Noonan is looking to secure his (Caveat: No 23/24th man is ever really that secure). Tanaka isn't even on the 40-man roster. Meanwhile, Adrianza (on 40-man) and Jurica (seemingly an org guy, but maybe making reclaiming his draft position potential and name in the same way Noonan reclaimed his stock last year) are making some noise with their bats, and that would seem to make Tanaka even more expendable. But it's all early yet, and it still hinges on Noonan and Abreu first - the guys that beat him for that 25th roster spot.

      But I think he is what he was always signed to be: a back-up plan. And he probably has back-up plan for back-up plan trade potential. Maybe the Giants could get a "ML-ready", but end-of-the-roster-type RH-corner bat or relief pitcher, maybe a prospect/project starter with 4-5th or swing-man potential. But even then it depends on Frankie Pegs, Gillespie, Roger K and even Juan Perez - AAA dudes on or close to the 40-man that could be better than what would come back in most trade scenarios for Tanaka.

      For now Tanaka might be happy with a stable AAA starting gig that he can try to turn into a ML contract next year. I think his stock dropped severely with his Spring Training Yips on defense and lackluster plus no power offense.

      Delete
    3. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 9:57 AM

      Even bringing back a reliever at mid-season can be a huge plus for the Giants. Who can forget the Lopez/Ramirez trades? I'd say Chris Stewart for George Kontos has worked out very well for the Giants too.

      Delete
  3. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 8:59 AM

    Looks like Rev Hunter Pence is shooting for a 20-20 season. Career avg is 285/338/475. Hate to say it, but I'm looking straight to another RF's contract, Ethier's: 6/95.5MM. Andre has always been a bit better than the Rev at the OBP, but they are pretty similar statistically and Hunter has more pop. Do the Giants take the Timmy money (5/100) and go chasing their spazzy RF with light tower power? Unfortunately if he keeps this up, The Rowand won't be enough, and fughitabout The Pagan, Pence has more power and that's what brings mad money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 9:39 AM

      20/20? At his current pace, The Rev is headed for a 48/36! Just kidding there.

      Yeah, I'm not sure I want to see the Giants commit to a huge longtermer with either Pence or Timmy, but of the two, I guess I would favor giving the do re mi to Captain Underpants.

      Delete
    2. kennvApril 15, 2013 at 9:56 AM

      Sure if Pence goes 20/20 or 35/20 this year, I'd rather give him the money than a Timmy with a 5.56 ERA. IF they both maintain their current pace, Pence looks the much safer bet. And despite his spazziness, hasn't his numbers been remarkably stable over his career?

      But, if Tim Lincecum rebounds, and is at or near the top in Ks with an ERA under 3 by the end of the year, I'd throw the money at him. And I suspect, he might take 3/70 rather than 5/110. Heck, he might even do 2/40 or 2/50 (wage inflation since the last 2/40 deal). Because I honestly think that he is crazy when it comes to contracts and length, after being forged in the flames of the Zito contract. On the other hand Pence will look to get paid market value + market years.

      Delete
    3. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 7:05 PM

      I wonder whether Timmy's stated year by year position was a negotiation tactic or it was watching Zito suffer the fans rage close by. I am amazed at how similar Zito and Timmy are. Diminishing velocity? Head in the game? Great stuff when they're on? Cy Youngs? We might get to find out if Timmy was serious about the short term contract. Would the Greybeards throw down 2/45MM? I think that is a lot more palatable then 5/100MM for sure.

      Delete
    4. obsessivegiantscompulsiveApril 15, 2013 at 10:47 PM

      I think it was a little of both. Try to push the Giants to an either or situation, either a huge long-term commitment or a very short one. With Tim's issues, the Giants aren't going to go long-term crazy, plus Tim has been a bit of a thinker as a pitcher, losing command/control when in high pressure situations (typically first games ever: pro, majors, opening day, World Series, then last season).

      And subsconsciously, you have to wonder if he sabotaged last season by dropping all that weight without consulting an expert fitness trainer.

      I think a two year, $46-50M deal is more probable with Lincecum, I don't think he wants a long-term deal to live up to, he hasn't even lived up to his current contract, and it wasn't even as much as that.

      Money is coming into the game, I would sign Pence as long as he's not looking for over $15M per season or more than 4 seasons. Keeping him would give us the luxury of not having to keep Sandoval around long-term, as then we would have Posey, Pence, Belt in the middle of the lineup. I would still want to keep Sandoval long-term, but if he's gaining too much weight and just too hard to handle, we won't be forced to keep him if Pence is still around.

      Delete
    5. AnonymousApril 16, 2013 at 6:24 AM

      20- 25 freaking MILLION dollars a year for a pitcher who is stinking the joint out? Never happen and shouldn't happen. (does he even deserve 5 million a year?) I love Timmy, but .... As far as Pence goes, if he plays well and wants to stay in SF, I'd say that it is NOT easy to get power hitters onto the Giants and I'd do everything I could within reason, to keep him on the team. KezarMike

      Delete
    6. RainballApril 16, 2013 at 5:04 PM

      Here, here Mike!

      I don't know what you guys are thinking, but short term or not Timmy is not worth anywhere remotely close to $25 per. Over $10 per and take it elsewhere Tim, I'll always have great memories.

      Delete
    7. kennvApril 16, 2013 at 10:20 PM

      I think Mike and Rainball, may have missed the key point: we'd resign Timmy if he returns to Timmy of old - top of the league in Ks and under-3 in ERA. Or are you saying you are too scared off by last year to ever resign him?

      Delete
  4. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 9:22 AM

    There could be another Hunter in the draft, Hunter Renfroe is up to 13 HRs and the 2nd highest SLG in the country. Should the Giants take a swing at big power early in the draft? They have that pattern of skills and tools with up the middle guys early and then taking a swing at the big power. (Brown/Panik/Stratton/Crick) then (Parker/Susac/Oropesa/Williamson) with Carter Jurica sitting out as a skills guy who dropped.

    Part B in the "rare as hen's teeth" in the majors: Shortstop. Do the Giants have enough depth with Crawford, Noonan/Panik in a pinch, Jurica, Adrianza, Tomlinson, Relaford, Polonious. Some of those guys slide to 2B obviously, but the question is: do the Giants have good depth at SS or is it a position of need? In the draft I'm of the opinion if there is a guy who can stick at SS there you snag him, but only if the bat might play at 3B or 2B as well.

    Obvious caveat of BPA, although I think that gets tossed out the window fairly early in the draft for most if not all teams.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 9:42 AM

      Love what Hunter Renfroe is doing and I don't think he'll last to the second round for the Giants. Latest 2 round mock on Big League Futures has Chris Oakley at #74 well after the Giants draft in round 2. I would not be unhappy with a Renfroe/Oakley combo for the first two picks.

      I would have a hard time passing on the SS Mercado if he is there at #25 though.

      Delete
    2. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 7:07 PM

      I posted up a SS look. I am on the fence about Mercado, I think this guy Tre Arbet is basically almost the same player and you might be able to snag him in the 3rd or 4th round. These various SS/3B guys are fascinating to me, I think that is an interesting way to hedge bets on not being able to stick at short.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousApril 16, 2013 at 6:26 AM

      Definately go for the power. We look very flush at short. KezarMike

      Delete
  5. AnonymousApril 15, 2013 at 2:34 PM

    Is this the year Edwin Escobar and/or Mejia makes it into the top 100 prospect lists?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 3:34 PM

      Top 100 lists are more for fun and because they are popular with readership. I honestly don't care if they make a top 100 list or not.

      Delete
    2. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 3:38 PM

      I will say that I think both are excellent prospects who will have good seasons in San Jose. I personally like Mejia a bit better, but I've heard reports of significantly improved velocity from Escobar which if that is sustained could really boost his stock.

      Delete
    3. obsessivegiantscompulsiveApril 15, 2013 at 10:34 PM

      I rather doubt it. They would have to truly dominate and probably rise to AAA in the process, to get into the Top 100 list. Stratton is probably the only pitcher who I see jumping into the Top 100 (Crick and Blackburn are already on some Top 100 lists) with a good performance this season, those lists usually stick to tried and true prospects, neither Escobar or Mejia are. For example, the year Sandoval broke out and made the majors for good, he wasn't even listed on any Giants top prospect lists (didn't stop me from drafting him in my keeper league).

      Delete
  6. Lucky GreenApril 15, 2013 at 5:27 PM

    Thoughts on Brown/Peguerro/Roger K? Sure, Gillespie may be the first OF to join the G-men this year, but where do the others fall in long term? Do any of them make Sabes think long and hard whether to offer a contract to Pence?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 15, 2013 at 6:29 PM

      Gillespie has not been getting a ton of playing time in Fresno, so I'm not so sure he is still the first option. Pegs and Roger K are both off to good starts. I would think Pegs has the edge in a callup situation as a RH bat is a better fit.

      Delete
    2. calsnowskierApril 15, 2013 at 6:37 PM

      Brown is the shiny toy, But I worry about how his tool translate to the MLB. He is a speed-demon, but he has a horrible SB%. I fear he may only turn out to be a 4th OF.

      Pegs is a 5-tooler. Prob is, none of his tools appear to be elite. He is just very well rounded. That may be good enough to be a low-end starting CF, though. I think his floor is 4th OF type.

      Kieschnick is a wild-card. If he can stay healthy, he may be something special. He has impressive power and I believe he is known for his arm (I am not 100% on this). If healthy, I think he could be a solid starting RF. His prob is that he is made of glass.

      I think that if they can get Pence at a competitive rate, they would have little problem signing him to a 3 year deal. If he walks, we would be back to the days of having 2 weak OFers. He would not be blocking anyone.

      Delete
  7. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 8:17 PM

    Andrew Cain snuck onto the Augusta roster.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 8:44 PM

      So they took a beating this weekend. RafRod concussion, Rapp broken finger, Houck pulled hamstring, Okert rebuilding arm strength.

      Of note: in addition to Cain, 10th rounder Trevor Brown from UCLA got activated. Going to be a super-utility guy.

      Delete
  8. JjwsfgiantsApril 15, 2013 at 8:30 PM

    Any word on Boch Jr joining a minor league affiliate?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ShankboneApril 15, 2013 at 8:43 PM

      Just got activated at Fresno.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousApril 15, 2013 at 11:19 PM

      Andrew Susac the Richmond catcher is interesting.. Does he have the tools to project as a starting catcher in the majors or does he project as a backup? I read a nice article about a month ago in the Sacramento Bee about Posey giving Susac some pointers.

      God bless the people in Boston tonight after today's tragic events..

      LG

      Delete
    3. DrBGiantsfanApril 16, 2013 at 6:17 AM

      I do think Susac can be a starting catcher in the majors.

      Second the sentiment about Boston.

      Delete
  9. AnonymousApril 16, 2013 at 8:56 AM

    What are your biggest surprises (up and down) on your top 50 list? I'd have to think Jurica and Keischnick are on the top of the "up" list?

    On a side note, always had faith in starters and relievers in the minors. Our boys know pitching. But, kind of optimistic about the OF in AAA and some of the 2b/3b candidates (Duvall and Jurica, along with Noonan coming up). Love Scutaro and Panda but worried about age and weight (respectively).


    Last one: Any chance they move Posey to first and bring Suscac in to start in a few years?

    PiLamBear

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanApril 16, 2013 at 1:25 PM

      Several pleasant surprises so far: Jurica is certainly one. I'm not all that surprised by Roger K. He's always just needed to stay healthy. Adrianza's hitting so far is a pleasant surprise. Joan Gregorio's start in Augusta is going better than I thought it would.

      I believe Susac was drafted specifically with the idea that Buster might need to move off catcher someday.

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)