Once we heard the Padres granted permission for the Giants to interview Bob Melvin for their Manager vacancy, we had to know the die was cast. 15 years ago, another Padres field manager fell out of favor with their front office and jumped to the Giants. We all know how that turned out. Hopefully history will repeat itself.
To be sure, Bob Melvin has his detractors. The Padres were almost as much of a mess as the Giants last year with, at least on paper, was a far more talented roster. We have friends who are big Padres fans who are convinced Melvin's management was the reason they went, what, 1-11 in extra-inning games? They blamed his refusal to try to advance the designated runner with no outs. Not sure the numbers support that notion but they are definitely convinced of it.
And look, yes, Gabe Kapler had to go. His deployment of players on the field was increasingly chaotic and it wasn't just due to Openers and bullpen games. I mean, there were several games later in the season where arguably their best player, Thairo Estrada, was batting ninth! There also seemed to be chaos in the clubhouse with several players spending more time on a Filipino card game than on their MLB baseball job. On the other hand, would Bob Melvin have won more games with that roster? I still maintain the root cause of the chaotic lineups and pitching schemes was injury and poor performance from players the Giants expected more from.
FZ hit big on a handful of short-term investments in players with injury histories. But the single biggest predictor of future injury remains an injury history and that blew up in his face in 2023. On top of that, multiple players who the metrics said should have a positive regression actually had a negative regression.
So what does Bob Melvin bring to the table? He can't keep injury-prone players from getting injured and he probably can't wave a wand and get positive regressions from players coming off down seasons. What he can do is bring a return to defining roles and managing the clubhouse much of which is dependent on the respect of the players for a manager with 21 years of mostly successful managing.
There may be one more factor which has been mentioned in beat writer reports: The Giants are rumored to be in on at least 2 and possibly 3 Asian free agents including potential ace pitcher Yamomoto. Melvin has a long history of good relationships with multiple asian players including Ichirio Suzuki and Yu Darvish who are believed to be extremely influential in advising Asian players where they will be most comfortable in MLB. I'm still a bit skeptical the Giants are going to sign any of those players. There has to be some reason why Asian players have avoided the Giants like COVID, but the CW is Melvin gives them a leg up.
So here's to Bob Melvin as the new Giants Manager. May he once again prove the Padres upper management to be a bunch of chumps.
I only have two points to add Melvin, as a player, was a Giant, and that makes more of a difference in the Giants org than one would think. It allows him a touch more autonomy and a better seat at the big boys table. I doubt Kapler pushed back on FZ once. Second, he's a catcher, and I always have believed that catchers make the best managers. They know how to handle and talk to pitchers, they know how to talk hitting, they learn to control games from an early age. I'm not sure anyone can unlock Joey Bart at this point, but I think an ex catcher has a better chance than most.
ReplyDelete"May he once again prove the Padres upper management to be a bunch of chumps."
ReplyDeleteBut willing to spend $$$$$...
Welcome back Bob! I'm optimistic about him righting the ship!
ReplyDelete~J
Great post Doc. I can't help but be excited after listening to Melvin's press conference. He's has a proven winning track record as a MLB manager with several teams including the A's and he's a bay area native. He's the perfect hire. He said that whenever he came back to SF as an opposing manager, the thought would cross his mind that maybe someday he'll be the Giants manager. I wonder if this could influence Sean Manaea decision to opt in or out? My good friend who is also a Padres fans was more disappointed in the players not doing the little things to win games. I remember the stat that the Padres were somewhere in the bottom 5 teams in MLB in terms of hitting in RISP, which shocked me. He's not happy that AJ Preller will be looking for his 5th manager since 2015. FZ getting his contract extension didn't surprise me. Susan Slusser mentioned it was on the table a couple of times. Gives them stability which is good. The off season is off to a good start!
ReplyDeleteOther big news is Farhan's contract got extended 2 more years apparently. So does he have a longer leash, or is this just something to keep him from being a lame duck?
ReplyDeleteAlso sadly Johnson reiterated his disinterest in exceeding the lux tax.
- Fan
It's easy to spend OPM, no righteous fan shall oppose!
DeleteAgain, we don't reallly know what "break even" is because the MLB owners don't open their books but I have a problem with the idea that the only way to win in MLB is maintain a negative operating income or exceed the CBT threshold. A well-run team should be able to win while keeping payroll below the CBT threshold.
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