Thursday, October 5, 2023

State of the Giants: What Do We Do Now?

The title is a reference to the final scene of The Candidate, a 1972 movie starring Robert Redford.  If that movie were to be remade today, I could envision kind of a reverse version telling the story of the Giants 2023 season and ending with Farhan Zaidi meeting with his bosses after firing Manager Gabe Kapler and asking the same question.  Because after listening to FZ's post-firing comments and his extremely awkward postseason press conference in which he fielded questions alone, I'm pretty sure he has no idea what to do now.  He comes across as a man who is not comfortable in his own skin right now, who has little insight into what went wrong and even less into what will fix it.  He knows he has to hire an new Manager but doesn't really want to because the manager he really wants is the guy he just fired!  The reason why FZ hired Kap and was so comfortable with him is they think alike and relate to people in the same way.  Part of FZ seems to want another Manager just like Kap while part of him knows he needs a Manager who is the opposite of Kap.

Part of me wants FZ to wake up to the fact that he is in a near-impossible situation and get out of Dodge.  The other part wants him to grow a spine and give his version of the "I'm not an idiot" speech.  The operation that produced a team that collapsed down the stretch in 2023 is the same as the one that won 107 games in 2021.  It can win 107 games again and BTW, the kids are alright and coming in droves, you wait and see.  Instead, we get a guy who is trying to figure out how to please his bosses, the press, the fans who write or comment on blogs, Buster Posey and Logan Webb.  

Lost in all of this is GM Pete Putila.  What does he think and what role did he or does he play in the these decisions?  Peppermint Pete, as I call him, may be the guy who turned the valves of the minor league pipleline to wide open but beyond that he's a phantom.  I don't know if Pete is a better people person than FZ and Kap, possibly not, since FZ hired him too and if he was, I would think we might have heard more from him by now.  But maybe FZ should consider telling Pete it's his job to hire the Field Manager and go back to his spreadsheets.  Which brings me to my short list of managerial candidates which does not include Buster Posey for more reasons than I'm pretty sure Field Manager is the last thing in the world Buster wants to do with the rest of his life.  Buster may be old school but have you ever heard Buster give in interview?  It's usually a little less comfortable than when FZ gives one.  

Kai CorreaKai is the interim manager and the players just seem to like him a whole lot better than they liked Kap.  A manager who thinks strategically like FZ and Kap but who the players actually like might be a great fit.  On the other hand, Kai has to overcome the perception that he is just a Kap mini-me.  

Ron WotusWotus is old school and goes way back in the organization.  He is analytical though as the guy who pretty much invented defensive positioning.  He was also the guy who FZ imported to give a motivational speech to the players midseason when it was obvious Kap couldn't give that speech.  That little answer to a trivia question is a huge reason why Wotus is actually the obvious choice.

Donnie Ecker:  The Giants biggest problem this season was hitting and it may not be a coincidence that it collapsed after Ecker left the organization.  Coming back as Manager would be a promotion.  If the problem was the hitting and if the hitting is fixable, Ecker needs to come back and the way to accomplish that is offer him a career advancement by making him the Manager.

Buck Showalter Buck is a guy who has control issues himself but who shows a capacity to learn from his mistakes and has been on a career-long personal growth curve.  Buck would almost certainly not accept the offer unless FZ agreed up front to stay the hell out of Buck's clubhouse which is the reason why Buck should be offered the job and why he won't be.

Stephen Vogt:  Retired catcher:  check.  Clubhouse leader and mentor:  Check.  Spent most of his career playing in analytically oriented organizations and seems comfortable with the approach: Check.  Lifelong Giants fan:  Check.  Would jump at the opportunity:  Check.

The actual pick is most likely none of the above but that's my list and I'm sticking to it.

41 comments:

  1. Vogt for me!!!🤞

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  2. After the Giants hire Somebody to be manager and fail to sign Ohtani ("I want to play for a Winner" -- LAD?), they offer Bellinger the World and he asks "Are you going to platoon me" (career stats against LHP: .250/.323/.459/.782) or "Are you going to put an 8-foot fence in right field in front of the Wall?"
    Say the Giants are down 3-0 with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 6th and a LHP is brought in to face Bellinger: do the Giants pinch hit Slater?
    Is Mickey Mantle available?

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  3. I watched the various interviews as well.
    Talk about inspired leadership!
    Definitely time to take his slide rule and move on.
    Can't imagine Sabes or Bobby coming across as indecisive, and actually afraid of their own shadow.

    Richard in Winnipeg

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  4. Replies
    1. LOL! I hope this one is a joke.

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    2. Great article you wrote about this situation. Wotus and Kai are my picks although Kai is a long shot. Maybe Vogt. I hope the owner quits meddling and Baer leaves the organization along with Z. Just my thoughts.

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    3. Curious... why the hate toward Larry Baer? Did I miss something, other than that personal incident with his wife a few years ago?

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  5. When the Giants are "allowed" to talk to Free Agents, they should ask Ohtani is there a manager that could bring you to SF?
    Like, bring your own manager. Or, do you want to be a Player/Manager? First since Pete Rose and we know how that turned out...

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  6. Not on your list, but in the rumor mill is also Will Venable. Certainly worth considering. Personally, I like Vogt on 1st look but would be open to others.

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  7. I viewed Ron Wotus's CV on Wikipedia.
    He is age 62 was very successful minor league Manager in the Giants farm system.
    Suffice to say he knows his way around a major league club house is to say the least.
    My vote is for him. That's as If I had a say!
    I am pretty sure the club house would respect him.

    Richard in Winnipeg

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  8. Current Vegas Favorites for the Giants new manager, courtesy of sportsbetting.ag (apologies if the formatting is odd):

    CANDIDATE ODDS
    Stephen Vogt 5/1
    Will Venable 5/1
    Mark DeRosa 7/1
    Bob Melvin 8/1
    Mark Hallberg 9/1
    Kai Correa 12/1
    Ron Wotus 12/1
    Don Mattingly 14/1
    Joe Espada 14/1
    Matt Williams 14/1
    Clayton McCullough 16/1
    Donnie Ecker 16/1
    Rodney Linares 18/1
    Benji Gil 25/1
    Danny Lehmann 25/1
    Don Kelly 25/1
    George Lombard 25/1
    Jarnathan McNamara 25/1
    Ramon Vazquez 25/1
    Buster Posey 40/1
    Will Clark 40/1
    Bruce Bochy 50/1
    Dusty Baker 100/1

    Will Venable, Joe Espada, Kai Correa, and Stephen Vogt also show up with varying odds for the Angels, Guardians, and Mets.

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  9. As an Owner, couldn't Posey just appoint himself?
    Kidding aside, if he would be the Manager, think about that! Who be better?
    He checks all the Boxes from Forever Giant to Among the Top 5 SF Giant Greats, knows and excels every facet of the game (OK, he wasn't swift but he did steal 23 bases - 72% success - and threw out 256), can read and talk to pitchers, soft spoken but listened to - the EF Hutton of Baseball, and SMART (a finance major at FSU, , Posey made the President's List in spring 2007 for his 4.0 GPA). He could join Connie Mack among the very few Owner-Mangers (was there anyone else?).
    Too bad he wouldn't do it...

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    Replies
    1. I am sure Buster's share of ownership is quite small. He's a Giants legend but appears to have less than zero interest in managing. Great players seldom make great managers.

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    2. Buster's ownership share might be small but it seems he has a seat at the table with Greg Johnson and Baer. I am hearing that if any one of those has an objection to Zaidi's manager choice or major free agent signing, then the deal is off.

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    3. ...which is a reason right there that FZ should not be the POBO.

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  10. How ‘bout Rodney Linares? Former long-time manager in the Astros’ system (worked with Peppermint Pete when he was Houston’s head of player development). After nearly 20 years in Houston’s system, he was hired as Tampa Bay’s third base coach in 2018. This past season, he was promoted to be the Rays’ bench coach. He has also managed for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, coaching Juan Soto (and Doval), among others. He speaks fluent Spanish and still is in his mid-40s.

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  11. i think with FZ looking more and more like a lame duck by the day, i think they use wotus as the bridge manager to get us to the next regime at this point. hallberg moves to bench coach and brundage comes up from sacramento to coach third. i thank FZ for restocking the farm but, he is starting to look more and more like a deer in the headlights.

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  12. Zaidi will pick a "safe" new manager.
    They will make no significant changes, mostly because they cannot: no high value signing, no game-changer trades, no needed roster moves.
    2024 will be a repeat of 2023, some promise and a lot of disappointment.
    Bye, bye, Baby

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  13. I'm not for or against FZ keeping his job, want this to succeed. Heard the presser, lot of GM speak, nothing that interesting. That's good, FZ promised too much last year. Better not to say too much, and get fans hopes up. I'm bothered that ownership is making FZ a lameduck. They should have decided to either let him go or extend him by now . It might cost them a manager who has options. Susan Shuster said in an interview that it wouldn't surprise her if FZ is extended later. Danny Emermon KNBR reporter said he would like to see them be more aggressive in trades. He feels after talking to people in the org, that decision makers don't want to lose a trade, insists on equal value or something to that effect. I agree I'd like to see more aggressive trading. One interesting thing is he wants new manager to be good recruiter. I guess Kap lacked in that area. Can't depend solely on free agency, too much competition. I think this can be turned around quickly, if the right moves are made.

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    1. I completely agree with this, LG. More than costing them a manager, the "lame duck" status incentives FZ to take risks which could cripple the organization for years to come. The only thing worse than a mediocre team that collapses down the stretch is a mediocre team with a couple of "albatross" contracts. How soon we forget that is the reason Bobby Evans was fired.

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    2. Major moves need to be signed off by ownership group, including Buster Posey which will lessen the risk of a crippling move being made.

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    3. ...sounds like a state of gridlock to me.

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  14. Doc the Giants rookies actually did really bad in the majors this year. None of them had a positive above replacement level. All of them struggled. That looks horrible on FZ who thought adding them to the club would make them better but it made them worse. Bailey led the league in errors and is a horrible hitter. Matos is a singles hitter with no pop and needs to work on his D. Schmidt obviously didn’t hit and Luciano has never had a full healthy season. Harrison wasn’t prepared in the minors to be a major leaguer this year due to FZ’s bad minor league philosophies.

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    1. I don't completely agree with this. Rookies have a steep learning curve. You can't judge them by WAR values in a partial first year. Bailey was clearly gassed by the end of the season. He can learn to be more selective with his throws. Aside from trying to do too much with his throws, he was good defensively. Matos had a good approach at the plate. He needs to get stronger but he's still quite young and filling out his frame. Harrison has ace stuff. Needs to refine his command. Schmitt's approach improved with experience. Luciano has the raw power to be a mid-order hitter. He needs to stay healthy. Fitz was good defensively in CF, can back up SS and showed some power. I think FZ jumped the gun on promoting Meckler.

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    2. I actually was going to make the same point as Anon. Actually I think the position player rookies poor play (understandable may it be), was actually more of a detriment to the team than the "churn". Good teams have the ability to absorb rookies -- and deal with their poor play, the Giants did not have have that type of cushion.

      These are the negative WAR players on the giants grouped into rookies and non rooks:

      THE VETS/CHURN:
      Roberto Perez WAR: -0.1
      Matt Beaty WAR: -0.1
      Johan Camargo WAR: -0.2
      Mitch Haniger WAR: -0.2
      A.J. Pollock WAR: -0.2
      TOTAL: -0.8 WAR

      THE ROOKS:
      Wade Meckler WAR: -0.1
      Mark Mathias WAR: -0.1
      Cal Stevenson WAR: -0.1
      David Villar WAR: -0.2
      Paul DeJong WAR: -0.3
      Isan Diaz WAR: -0.3
      Heliot Ramos WAR: -0.4
      Luis Matos WAR: -0.4
      Brett Wisely WAR: -0.5
      Casey Schmitt WAR: -0.6
      TOTAL: -0.3

      The rookies poor play practically erases all the contribution that Bailey (-2.8 WAR) made to the roster.

      - Fan

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    3. You left off Blake Sabol, Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano and Bryce Johnson who all had + fWar, but that's not the point. If you want to build from within you have to bring them up sometime and they are frequently going to take some time to adjust. Hopefully although this season ended in failure, the upside is it enabled multiple rooks to get started on their adjustment.

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    4. You also didn't count the pitching side which left off Ryan Walker, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn who had + fWARs. Ha! Even Sean Hjelle has a + 0.1 while Kyle Harrison was in negative territory. As Vin Scully would say, go figure!

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    5. You are totally right doc. In retrospect did slightly cherry pick this analysis to only position players with only negative war.

      - Fan

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  15. Personally, I think the important moving forward Rookies had a good year in MBL, if not statisticlly. Most, if not all of them, were brought in too early (Matos, Bailey, Luciano, Meckler, Schmidt) with very little time in their highest league. Yet, almost all of them had initial success before they wore down, marginalized by constant platooning and, most important, he pitchers reacting/adapting to their inexpereince. The good thing is that they know what they have to improve on both physically and mentally. Unfortunately, then there is BART, RAAMOS and VILLAR where I think the ship has sailed...Onthe pitching side, a very good first year experience for HARRISON, WINN, BECK...with other pitchers not far behind (Black, Teng and McDonald, who had a GREAT year..

    SteveVA.

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  16. And to add, for a rookie..it's not just the cumulative stats for the year but how they trended and acclimated during the year. I think, after trials and tribulations or short call ups, we saw a good end to the year for most...Bailey (even out of Gas), Sabol, Schmidt, Matos, Lucianno, Fitz, Harrison, Winn, Walker, Beck, & maybe others that they can take into their huge off-season (or be used in trades!!)

    SteveVA

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  17. Ron Wotus or Steve Decker should be the next manager. And remove FZ before he does anything truly unfixable.

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    Replies
    1. Steve Decker? Now there's a blast from the past!

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  18. FWIW in Game 1 NLDS, from fans and even players, why did Snitker change the batting order?
    Nobody, nowhere, no excuse – if you find a Winner, ride it!

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  19. As for when did the Giants collapse and why, September 1st is a very good date for when because they were 6 games over .500 on the morning of September 1 with the 3rd WC in their hands.
    AZ got the 3rd WC with a record 6 over .500 - so SF only needed to go 15-13 in their last 28 games and they would have been 8 games over .500, a conformable 3rd WC.
    Why did nearly everyone not pitching just quite QUIT?
    Slater was their best "hitter" in September @ .282, 128th best in MLB
    Wade was .271, 145th in MLB
    Estrada: .263, 167th
    Flores: .253,194th
    Matos: 250, 206th
    Davis: .246, 220th
    Schmitt: .241, 236th
    Yaz: .240, 240th
    Fitzgerald: .219, 304th
    Luciano: .214, 318th
    Pederson: .208, 335th
    Crawford: .195, 362nd
    Sabol: .184, 381st
    Haniger: .169, 407th
    Meckler: .143, 412th
    Bailey: .121, 456th
    Conforto: .111, 460th
    Bart: .000, 476th Tie
    Ramos: .000, 476th Tie
    Top Giant HR hitter got 4, tied for 71st in MLB (leader had 12)
    Top Giant RBI, 11, tied for 126th (leader had 29)
    Top Giant SB's, 4, tied for 39th (Estrada, 3 CS)
    84 MLB batters batted .300 or more (Giants had none)
    Wade had the 103rd best OPS
    Why did only 4 or 5 of those 14 players just barely show up?
    Who knows, but Kapler took the fall. The team really wasn't bad, the pitching was pretty good, just they to a man didn't H-I-T!

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  20. I know it's frustrating since they had the playoff birth at the palm of their hands and didn't grab it. Its frustrating reading articles about players like Logan Webb saying that team didn't have winning culture in the clubhouse. Some players rather play a Filipino card game instead of studying hitting that games starting pitcher. There was no accountability according to reports. Yaz said players did their own thing. While all this wasn't Kapler 's fault, he is ultimately responsible.The red flag for me was when FZ, Wotus, some players led team meetings, Kapler wasn't involved! FZ is responsible for the roster he constructed, the team got as high as 13 games above 500, and a relaxed clubhouse culture can play a big role in bringing a team down. They need a manager and more players like Logan Webb to bring back a winning attitude

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    Replies
    1. Or maybe time to take out the trash?
      Are Conforto, Haniger, Crawford, Pederson, and even YtY and Davis going to help in 2024? Craw and Jock are gone, but there's a lot of dead wood there, looking at how September played out. Who would bet on any of them?
      And why are they, almost to a man, so bad on Defense? B-R'a dWAR is embarrassing for a major league team.

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    2. If Conforto opts in, Giants have nothing to lose to see if he and Haniger can stay healthy and bounceback. I would keep Davis or see if he has trade value. I would be inclined to either not tender YtY a contract or explore trade options.

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  21. What about Austin Slater? Kap liked him

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    1. Slater had 0.9 fWAR in 207 PA which projects to 2.7 in 600 PA but he needs a platoon partner who hits lefty who can match or better that. The odd thing about the Giants is they have multiple players in similar situations. It's hard to point to one position and say it's the position that needs upgrading but yet it's obvious they need to upgrade somewhere.

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    2. Interesting that Giants GM Pete Putila was spotted scouting Korean league star outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. Maybe hard to say how his game will translate to MLB. Yes, want to see changes to the mix of position players, They could use a trade for a big stick like Pete Alonzo.

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