Sunday, October 22, 2023

Giants Depth Charts: Center Field

Perhaps the Giants 2024 roster dilemma is most glaring in the outfield where, if Michael Conforto does not choose to opt out of his $18 M guaranteed contract and if nobody is traded, 4 of their OF's will be holdovers from a mediocre and underperforming roster:  Haniger, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Slater.  That does not leave a lot of room for upgrades.  In his somewhat bizarre end-of-season press conference conducted in the home dugout at Oracle Park, Farhan Zaidi talked like Tyler Fitzgerald will get a chance to win the starting CF job outright which would mean that 2 of the 4 veterans would be relegated to 4'th and 5'th OF roles which would likely mean a huge drop in playing time under a new manager who will almost certainly not be as free with his platoons and substitutions as the peripatetic Gabe Kapler.  On top of that it wouldn't leave room for a big upgrade through free agency or trade.

With that said, lets break down where the center field depth chart stands going into the Hot Stove League season. 

MLB

Mike Yastrzemski:  .233/.330/.445, 15 HR, 11.8 BB%, 26.0 K%, 381 PA, UZR/150(CF)= 9.7(351.1 innings), fWAR= 1.8.  AGE 33.  Arbitration Eligble.  FA 2026.  When I watch him play CF on TV, I'm just not that impressed, but UZR says YtY is a plus defender at the position over the past 3 seasons in spite of being hobbled this by a recurrent hammy strain in 2023.  In fact, he ranked #6 in MLB in UZR/150 among those who played more than 300 innings at the position.  So, if CF seems like an obvious place for FZ to upgrade, it's not as easy as it may seem.

Tyler Fitzgerald:  AAA:  .287/.358/.499, 20 HR, 29 SB, 9.7 BB%, 23.8 K%, 466 PA.  MLB:  .219/.265/.469, 2 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 29.4 K%, UZR/150(CF)= 4.0(71.1 innings), 34 PA, fWAR= 0.2.  After being ignored all season when there was a need at SS, his primary position in the minors, Fitz was finally promoted in the final 2 weeks of the season when the Giants were all but eliminated from the Wild Card race and.....played mostly CF.  He played it well and flashed his intriguing power/speed combo.  He seems to be an example of the drafting strategy that if you take shortstops, you can eventually plug them in anywhere.  Is Tyler Fitzgerald the Giants CF of the future, as FZ seemed to suggest in his postseason press conference?

Austin Slater:  .270/.348/.400, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 28.0 K%, 207 PA, UZR/150(CF)= -10.7(180.2 innings), fWAR= 0.9.  Age- 30.  No Options.  Arbitration Eligible.  FA 2025.  Slater is a very good hitter against LHP's but he has brutal L/R splits and is a defensive liability in CF which severely limits his on-field utility.  Can the Giants continue to carry a player with that profile on a 26-man roster? Oh, and Slater underwent elbow surgery about a week ago.

Luis Matos:  AA:  .304/.398/.443, 3 HR, 9 SB, 12.8 BB%, 9.0 K%, 133 PA.  AAA:  .353/.404/.626, 9 HR, 6 SB, 7.2 BB%, 7.2 K%, 152 PA.  MLB:  .250/.319/.342, 2 HR, 3 SB, 7.9 BB%, 13.0 K%, 253 PA, UZR/150(CF)= -19.7(438 innings), fWAR= -0.4.  Age- 21.  Options 2.  Arbitration Eligible 2027?  Matos has been a highly ranked prospect for several years and was tearing up AA and AAA and he was already on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft so perfectly reasonable to call him up.  The results were mixed.  There is a lot to like in his game and he's still very projectable.  He made some good looking plays in CF making it look easy in the process, but took terrible routes and looked clueless at other times.  His UZR/150 is brutal and Gabe Kapler publicly voiced his frustration.  On the hitting side, he has solid K/BB numbers and hit a lot of balls hard that died on the warning track and acknowledged that he has to work on getting stronger.  Added strength should also come just from maturity when we are talking about a 21 yo player.  So here's another dilemma:  with FZ on the hot seat, can he afford to let Matos finish his development at the MLB level or does he get optioned to AAA where he seems to have run out of challenges?

Wade Meckler:  A+:  .456/.494/.633, 2 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, 87 PA.  AA:  .336/.431/.450, 2 HR, 4 SB, 14.4 BB%, 16.7 K%, 174 PA.  AAA:  .354/.465/.500, 2 HR, 7 SB, 17.6 BB%, 19.6 K%, 102 PA.  MLB:  .232/.328/.250, 9.4 BB%, 39.1 K%, 64 PA, UZR/150(CF)= -16.1(119 innings), fWAR= -0.1.  Age- 23.  Options- 2.  Arbitration Eligible 2027?  Meckler had a whirlwind season raking through 3 levels before what in retrospect was a premature promotion to MLB level.  He is small of stature for a ballplayer and appeared to be physically overmatched.  On top of that, his offensive game profiles as a CF but he does not appear to have the tools to handle the position in the majors.  Now he's on the 40-man roster and must be exposed to waivers if he's ever dropped.  Now he looks like he could be a casualty of the chaotic promotions that took over the 2023 season.

Heliot Ramos:  AAA:  .300/.382/.546, 12 HR, 9 SB, 10.3 BB%, 25.1 K%, 263 PA.  MLB:  .179/.233/.304, 1 HR, 6.7 BB%, 33.3 K%, 60 PA, UZR/150(CF)= 43.3(13 innings), fWAR= 0.4.  Age- 24, 1 Option.  Not Arbitration Eligible.  Former first round draft pick who appeared to be deep in FZ/Kap's doghouse as he was repeatedly passed over for obvious promotion opportunities.  At this point there is not clear path out of the roster logjam with the Giants.  Will he blossom with another organization or will he become a AAAA player like his bro, Henry?

AAA:  

None.

AA:  

Vaun Brown:  .221/.284/.421, 8 HR, 15 SB, 6.3 BB%, 37.5 K%, 208 PA.  Age- 25.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2024.  10'th round pick in the 2021 draft, Brown caught fire in 2022 hitting 23 HR and stealing 44 bases over 2 levels.  As we all know, the A+ to AA jump tends to be big and Brown got off to a delayed start due to what was described as minor knee surgery.  After coming back he continued to show flashes of both power and speed but never really found traction at the plate and eventually went back on the IL with an undisclosed injury.  2024 looms as a big season for him as it will test whether he is fully recovered and whether he can handle higher level pitching.  Still a legit CF prospect.

Hunter Bishop:  DNP in 2023.  Age- 25.  Rule 5 Eligible.  The Giants first, first-round draft pick of the FZ era.  Bishop's career has been completely derailed so far by a series of injuries and poor performances.  Missed all of 2023 with an torn UCL and Tommy John surgery.  Should be finally fully healthy in 2024, likely his last shot at finding traction on his pro career.  

A+:

Grant McCray:  .255/.360/.417, 14 HR, 52 SB, 12.3 BB%, 29.3 K%, 584 PA.  Age- 22.  Rule 5 Eligible.  Former third round draft pick from 2019.  Tooled up legit CF prospect.  Got off to a very slow start in A+ ball but recovered to hit quite well over the second half of the season.  When you draft a raw HS prospect like him you have to be willing to see the project through.  I would add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft even if it means dropping or trading a Wade Meckler or Heliot Ramos.  I can easily project McCray to be an impact MLB player after 3 years of continued development through use of options.

Carter Howell:  A:  .337/.398/.500, 4 HR, 8 SB, 8.6 BB%, 19.8 K%, 197 PA.  A+:  .270/.353/.408, 6 HR, 6 SB, 354 PA.  Age- 24.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025.  Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022, Howell put himself on the prospect radar screen with a solid 2023 season across 2 levels.  He was rewarded with an AFL assignment where he is raking and impressing.  Has some power and speed but more of a contact/average hitter which will play if he can cover CF.  

A:

Turner Hill:  .287/.374/.370, 0 HR, 27 SB, 10.7 BB%, 8.9 K%, 347 PA.  Age- 24.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec 2026.  Another undrafted free agent signing.  Hill showed tremendous contact and on-base skills for the SJ Giants with some speed albeit with absolutely no power.  Will have to gain some pop to maintain the walk rates at higher levels.

There is also Rayner Arias who played exclusively CF in the DSL but profiles more like a corner OF bat.

In summary, FZ created what can only be described as a cluster**** on the 40-man roster which will have to be sorted out.  There are intriguing possibilities throughout the organization but no outstanding CF prospects.  The key will be identifying the keepers and letting the others go by release or trade.

10 comments:

  1. Steve Duggar, a "true" CFer was let go in 2022 after a very good 2021 (like everyone!)
    YtY and Slater "could" have the same fate but they would save only "spare change" if let go. The "big" money in the OF is the 2 corners they picked up last year neither of whom distinguished themselves at bat or in the field.
    As Doc aptly put SF's money drain is there while filling the OF roster with few positives. FZ is in a box of his own making without an escape door.
    If they try and succeed in getting, say, Bellinger, they will have to do something with the glut.
    We won't know for a couple weeks what Conforto does but that will be before any FA signings.
    Wonder what would happen if he (Conforto) was told he'll be the DH against RHP and no more if he doesn't opt out -- would that encourage him to seek a better opportunity? He has had a tenancy to bet on himself.

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    1. In fairness, the "roster hell" is only for 1 year, but if FZ's mandate is to win in 2024, he has definitely boxed himself in. If ownership does not want to fire him now, perhaps they should extend him to protect against digging a bigger hole that will take longer to get out of. But then, if they feel like they have to do that, they should probably just fire him and move on.

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    2. Zaidi needs to trade from this group especially if Conforto opts in.

      - Fan

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    3. IIRC, it is probably too late for the ownership group to let FZ go after "picking up their options". I'm sure there is a lot of churning left to be done and it's looking like more Managerial candidates are coming out of the woodwork. I still have the impression of Matos trying to catch that flyball to save Cobb's No Hitter for some reason. FWIW, the bats completely are still underperforming all across the board and I am rooting for someone like Donnie Ecker to return in some capacity.

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  2. Slate's defensive measures in CF are kinda all over the place. But by OAA and RAA, he was positive and has lifetime plus 3 in both. Eye test he also seemed average to solid after his rather disastrous defensive year in 2022. But then again, it seemed like everyone had a disastrous defensive campaign in 2022.

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  3. Think adding Yamamoto, Lee is fine with me , might add to cluster abundance . At least during the halcyon days Giants had up and coming pitching.

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  4. Btw our “retired” HoF manager is back in the WS.
    Who would have guessed if you gave Boch a roster that isn’t crap he could still deliver.

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    1. He is a fantastic manager, but don't forget that he got to pick the the job he wanted, and picked well. Most managers are stuck with their rosters.

      - Fan

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  5. According to CBS R.J. Anderson, Giants are hiring Bob Melvin.
    By-line:
    "Melvin will replace Gabe Kapler, who was fired at the end of the year"
    Quote:
    The San Francisco Giants will soon announce the hiring of Bob Melvin as their new manager, according to Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.

    https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/giants-expected-to-hire-bob-melvin-as-new-manager-as-veteran-leader-leaves-padres-per-report/

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    Replies
    1. The talk on Melvin is positive and says it's a good match.
      The only downside: he is still, after 20 seasons, looking for his first pennant even though he's had some very good teams. Will a playoff team be enough to get fans in the stands and satisfy the faithful?

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