Thursday, December 13, 2018

Hot Stove Update: Giants Jumpstart Rebuild.... With Rule 5 Draft

The Giants took a deep dive into the Rule 5 Draft today selecting 2 players in the MLB phase for the first time in their history and 2 more in the AAA phase.  Lets break it down.

Round 1 Pick 7:  Travis Bergen LHP.  DOB:  10/8/1993.  6'1", 205 lbs.

2018 A+:  0-1, 1.71, 21 IP, 13.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1 Save.
2018 AA:  4-1, 0.50, 35.2 IP, 10.85 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 7 Saves.

Lefty reliever from Blue Jays organization with terrific K/BB who can face both L/R handed batters.  He reportedly has a low-mid 90's FB with high spin plus a curveball and changeup. He obviously has enough stuff to miss bats.  AA to MLB is a big jump but at least if you've pitched successfully in AA, you have a ghost of a chance of pitching successfully in MLB.  Other teams are reportedly showing a lot of interest in veteran lefty relievers Tony Watson and Will Smith, so maybe the Giants see Bergen as insurance in case they get an offer on Smith or Watson they can't refuse?  I expected the Giants to select MIF Drew Jackson from the Dodgers if he was on the board, which he was, but this is a nice pick who has a great chance to stick on the 25 man roster and could fill a key role in 2019.

Round 2(only pick):  Drew Ferguson, OF.  DOB:  8/3/1992.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 180 lbs.

AAA:  .305/.436/.429, 11 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 15.8 BB%, 20.9 K%, 292 PA.

The Giants were the only team to make 2 picks in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft and they picked up an intriguing OF from the Astros with their second pick.  Ferguson missed the first 2 months of the season with a fractured hand but came back strong with a rather eye-popping walk rate and OBP, although the power is more gap than HR.  He can run some and is reportedly capable of playing all 3 OF positions which basically makes him Gorkys Hernandez with a lot better plate discipline.  The fact that he had a successful season in AAA gives him a great chance of sticking on the 25 man roster as a 4'th or 5'th OF. Another nice pick!

AAA Phase:

Peter Maris, SS.  DOB:  9/16/1993.  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 175 lbs.

2018 A+:  .320/.405/.600, 7 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 12.1 BB%, 16.4 K%, 116 PA.
2018 AA:  .248/.337/.444, 10 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 11.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, 179 PA.

Originally signed as an undrafted FA by the Rays out of UCSB and no, he's not related to Roger Maris. Versatile player who has played all 4 IF positions and even a little OF.  His calling card is also plate discipline with gap and occasional HR power.  There is no offer-back rule for the AAA phase, so the Giants can play him at any level and keep him in the organization for the full 2019 season.  Ceiling is likely utility IF.

Sam Moll, LHP.  DOB:  1/3/1992.  5'10", 185 lbs.

2018 AAA:  1-3, 5.30, 18.2 IP, 9.16 K/9, 2.41 BB/9.

Another lefty reliever with AAA experience.  He actually pitched in MLB for the A's in 2017 albeit with a 10.80 ERA in just 6.2 IP,   His FIP and xFIP in 2018 were 2.96 and 3.56 respectively so his secondary stats are much more impressive than his ERA.  Hey! You can never have too many lefty relievers, especially if you are thinking about trading 1 or 2!

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The Mariners(who else?), Indians and Rays pulled off a 3-way swap while Trader Jerry was lying in a  hospital bed with blood clots in his lungs.  Yikes!  This is actually pretty much 2 separate trades but somehow the Rays are sending $5 M to the Mariners who are also sending $6 M to the Indians.  Got that?  Anyway,

Mariners get DH Edwin Encarnacion and a Competitive Balance B draft pick(currently #77) from the Indians.

Indians get Carlos Santana from the Mariners.

Indians get 1B Jake Bauers from the Rays

Rays get IF Yandy Diaz and RHP Cole Sulser from the Indians.

This trade is so confusing I have no idea who got the best of it, but I'll go with the team getting the prospects, so the Rays.

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The Brewers acquired LHP Alex Claudio from the Rangers for a Competitive Balance A draft pick(approximately #40)  Claudio was the Rangers Closer in 2017 but got BABIP'd to the tune of .366 in 2018 which caused his ERA to balloon to 4.48.  That BABIP suggests he's a decent bounceback candidate in 2019.  He gives the BrewCrew another lefty in the bullpen alongside Josh Hader.  Seems like a light return for the Rangers, but they seem to be in a rebuild phase and probably value the extra draft pick a bit more than other teams.  I could see Farhan Zaidi making a deal like this to acquire extra draft picks at some point.

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The Mets re-acquired RHP Jeurys Familia with a 3 year/$30 M contract.  He would seem to be in line for a set up role after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz earlier in the offseason, but that's a pretty strong late inning combo there.

28 comments:

  1. And don't forget, the Giants still have lefty relievers Ty Blach, Steven Okert and Josh Osich on the 40 man roster.

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    1. i think osich will be out of options, i think he will get one last chance in spring training before he gets cut.

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  2. And with the addition of the 2 MLB phase Rule 5 Draft picks, the Giants have 37 players on their 40 man roster which still leave plenty of room for acquisitions without having to drop anyone.

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    1. If Kevin Pillar ends up being one of the three spots left on the roster, what other 2 moves could the Giants make to be competitive this year? Its actually a trick question because there are no signs the Giants are trying to be competitive this season.

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    2. Why would Kevin Pillar be one of the adds? One of the spots has to go to a catcher unless the Giants are convinced Buster is going to be ready to go behind the plate. with Rupp as backup and Aramis getting a bit more salt in Sacramento. Looking at the list of FA catchers, Hundley is as good as any. Then I'd say overpay for AJ Pollock for CF with Duggar moving over to RF. Let Mac, Slater, Shaw, Ferguson and Gerber compete for LF possibly ending up with a platoon situation. They might even go with a double platoon of Mad/Gerber in LF and Duggar/Ferguson in RF. Then Sign Dallas Keuchal to bolster the rotation.

      Done!

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    3. Alex Pavlovic threw out Pillars name as a player the Giants were looking at for what its worth. Im in on Pollack if he can stay healthy he could be a great addition over the next 3-4 years. Not much else to get excited about in the FA market

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    4. AJ Pollack is a pretty big injury risk and his only really good season was back in 2015. Duggar's minor league stats are really, really close to his. The kicker for me though is his splits - away from the friendly confines of AZ his OPS is 100 points lower. 295/351/499 for 111 OPS+ versus road split of 266/324/434 and 89 OPS+. That to me isn't worth draft pick damage/50MM plus, one of these new additions has a chance of putting up 266/324/434 for the minimum.

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    5. When I review his injury history, I don't see that Pollock is any more of an injury risk than the average player. The home/road split thing might be an issue.

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    6. Who would they trade for Pillar?

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    7. If Kevin Pillar is the big add this offseason, the Giants might as well have saved themselves the trouble of firing Bobby Evans and finding a new GM. Pillar is a good defensive CF with absolutely no stick. The double digit dingers and steals may look nice in a stat line but he plays in an very hitter-friendly environment. His OBP last year as .282 for crying out loud! His career walk rate is 4.2%. His career OPS is under .700. No to Kevin Pillar! Just no!

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    8. Is Pollock a better defender than Duggar? I don’t like the signing. I’d rather get Brantley.

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    9. What do you like best about Brantley? That he has had 2 or 3 surgeries on his ankle and it will likely never be completely normal again? That he is average defender in LF, the only OF position he can play? That he bats lefthanded?

      Duggar's UZR/150 in CF= 4.2. AJ Pollock's UZR/150= 5.9. Giants need 2 OF's with CF speed to cover CF and RF because of Triples Alley. You can flip Duggar and Pollock if you want but they are roughly equal on defense and Pollock would probably ask to play CF as part of any FA deal.

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  3. Oh, and the Giants did not lose any players in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 Draft but did lose 3 in the AAA phase: RHP Dusten Knight, RHP Ian Gardeck and OF Jeffrey Baez who was signed earlier this offseason as a minor league FA.

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  4. with free agency being as slow as it was last year, the chance of a work stoppage in 2021 are increasing. owners could look to push for a salary cap when the next cba comes around and gms getting much smarter.

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  5. 7 of the Giants MLB Top 30 prospects came from other teams' farm systems: Shaun Anderson, Gregory Santos, Abiatal Avelino, Juan De Paula, Travis Bergen, Drew Ferguson, Mike Gerber.
    OTOH, 23 were picked by the Giants.
    Zaidi says they're not done with the OF because, frankly, Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater, Drew Ferguson, Mike Gerber, and maybe Daniel Carbonell aren't gonna get it done.
    SF needs a thumper! And maybe a realignment of the fences.
    AT&T may be good for SF pitching but it's good for the opponents also and that only works in SF's favor when they have the better pitching: Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner and the Core Four.
    BTW, an "inner" fence doen't have to change the way the field looks, but it may make hitters out of Williamson and Shaw, or even Belt, Crawford, and Panik.
    Might even launch a Bondsian career for Bryce Harper.

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    1. If you move the fences in it helps the opposing team as much or more than the Giants. I say play it like it lays. Giants have had teams that hit a lot of dingers in this ballpark. They can do it again. Don't change the ballpark to fit the current roster construction which is a temporary situation.

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  6. I like them loading up on lefties too. Baseball America liked the Sam Moll pick. Does 2 rule 5 selections signal that they are taking a step back in 2019. Then again, they've reportedly resisted trade offers for Belt and their back end relievers. I guess it's too early to say, its possible that more deals could get done before christmas according to Zaidi.

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    1. I'd say the rule 5 selections are just about depth, especially with the OF pickups. They're easily discarded if they don't pan out, and if they catch fire... genius!

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  7. I applaud these Rule 5 pick-ups. Honestly, mediocre MLB players are not worth $5 - $10 MIL a year. And former stars in serious decline are not worth $15 - $20 M.

    OT: has Gorkys signed on yet? He earned his contracts and never caused any ripples in the clubhouse.

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    1. Gorkys has a minor league deal with the BoSox that will pay 1MM if he makes 25. (Gorkys was #92 in BA's 2008 Top 100 - as we think about prospects and rankings... sometimes its good to look back on the hype).

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    2. Thanks for responding GL to Gorkys and that he makes the team and links up with Nunez.

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  8. Maybe they were looking to pick Jackson with their 2nd pick... Phils snagged and traded him to Balto. Good luck Drew!

    The lefty pick is always strong to stick on the 25, so that's good. Gives some more depth - I think this is the last chance for Osich.

    The Dodgers pens under Zairi were very good at not walking a lot of people. Hunch that he pays close attention to K/BB. The bums got better yesterday by signing Joe Kelly. Definitely going to be an uphill battle in the West - but little moves like this will hopefully bolster the depth so the Gints don't run out of gas like last year.

    Its impossible to keep up with Trader Jerry, or to understand what he's doing. Trades for the sake of trading!

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    1. Did the Dodgers actually sign Joe Kelly? I have looked and looked and can find no confirmation they actually completed the deal.

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    2. There isn't any confirm yet, you're right. Strange. With the Familia signing, and the reported amount for Kelly, the Giants do have a little bit of trade value with their cost controlled lefties.

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    3. Likewise fat contracts to Eovaldi and others enhance the trade value of Bumgarner.

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  9. Baltimore pick up both Richie Martin and Drew Jackson via Rule 5. Normally, it is difficult to keep one rule 5 on the active roster for the entire year, let alone two. Therefore, one would expect Baltimore to return at least one of those players to the original organization. The Giants would have a chance to pick up that player during the return process. However, looking at the Baltimore roster, it is devoid of infielders. Baltimore may actually need to keep both.

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    1. For a team that's hit rock bottom, the Orioles could do a lot worse than put Martin and Jackson out there as their starting SS and 2B respectively.

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