Hot Stove Update: Dodgers Clear Space for Bryce Harper

OK, team!  This one is a true blockbuster with far-reaching consequences.  The Dodgers found a way to unload...wait for it.....Matt Kemp AND Yasiel Puig in one big effing trade and manage to make their already impressive farm system even better.  You paying attention to this, Farhan?  Details are still emerging but the Dodgers are reportedly sending Kemp, Puig and LHP Alex Wood to the Reds for RHP Homer Bailey, RHP prospect Josiah Gray and SS prospect Jeter Downs.  Bailey is obviously a contract balancer, but I absolutely love Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray as prospects.  A new update has C/IF Kyle Farmer also going to the Reds along with $7 M in cash.  So, let's break it down:

Matt Kemp had a nice bounceback season last year slashing .290/.338/.481 with 21 HR's with 1.6 fWAR.  His production tailed off rather badley in the second half, though.  He is 34 yo and has 1 yr/$21.5 M left on his contract.

We all know who Yasiel Puig is.  I'll just say he has hit 51 HR's over the past 2 seasons.  Those numbers could improves significantly playing half his games in Great American Ballpark.  He is in his final arbitration year with MLBTR projecting a salary of $11.3 M.

Alex Wood pitched well for the Dodgers while ducking in and out of the DL which may or may not have been due to actual injuries.  He put up a 3.68 ERA over 151. 2 IP last year.  He also is in the final year of arbitration and is projected by MLBTR to make $9 M in 2019.

Kyle Farmer has performed well in very limited action for the Dodgers over the past 2 seasons.  He is 28 yo and will make league minimum salary next season.  He could be a decent back up C for the Reds with some versatility.

The best you can say about Homer Bailey is he pitched the most innings(106.1) in 2018 since 2014, but was ineffective going 1-14 with an ERA of 6.09.  He is in the final year of his contract and set to make $23 M as well as a $5 M option buyout for 2020.  The Dodgers are expected to simply release him and eat the $$ although that is what they were expected to do with Matt Kemp when they acquired him too, so they could give Bailey a chance to impress them in spring training before cutting him loose.

Now we get to the really sad part of this story:

Jeter Downs, SS  Drafted #32 overall in 2017 out of HS.  Now 20 yo.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 180 lbs.

2018 Low A:  .257/.351/.402, 23 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, 37 SB, 9.9 BB%, 19.7 K%, 524 PA.

I liked Downs a lot in the 2017 draft cycle and he's done nothing to diminish that admiration in his pro career.  If I was going to comp him, I might pick retired Reds 2B Brandon Phillips who had a pretty good MLB career. Fangraphs had him as the Reds #6 prospect.

Josiah Gray, RHP.  Drafted Round 2 in 2018 out of college(LeMoyne).  6'1", 210 lbs.

2018:  2-2, 2.58, 52.1 IP, 10.15 K/9, 2.92 BB/9.

Gray is a bit undersized but throws his FB in the mid-90's with excellent command.  He backs that up with a plus slider that is still a bit inconsistent.  His change-up lags behind.  He is a converted position player so does not have a lot of mileage on the arm and is still learning how to pitch.  Projects as a mid-rotation SP or a late-inning reliever.

Now, here's the even sadder part of the story:

The Dodgers just cleared out their OF logjam which would seem to be the prelude to signing Bryce Harper.  Well, of course they did!

Now I think I'll just crawl over to a corner, curl up and moan....or else go throw myself down the stairs!  LOL!

Oh, and how stupid is this of the Reds who will lose all of the top 3 acquired players to free agency after 2019 and give up 2 promising prospects in the process?

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As if the Dodgers trade doesn't disgust you enough, the A's swung a 3-way trade to acquire UT Jurickson Profar, and well, of course they did!  This one is quite complicated with the A's getting Profar.  The Rangers receive IF prospect Eli White from the A's as well as LHP's Brock Burke and Kyle Bird and RHP Yoel Espino from the Rays.  The Rays get RHP Emilio Pagan, #38 overall 2019 draft pick from the A's and RHP Rollie Lacy from the Rangers.  The Rangers also receive $750 K in international bonus pool money.

Profar was once considered one of the very top, if not THE top prospect in all of baseball.  His career has been interrupted by several serious injuries.  He finally got regular playing time with the Rangers last year and had a good season:  .254/.335/.458, 35 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 10 SB, 9.1 BB%, 14.8 K%, 594 PA.  He was especially productive in July and August, I added him to my fantasy baseball roster mid-season and he gave me terrific production before tailing off a bit in September.  Profar will likely be the A's regular 2B in 2019.  He's moving to a more challenging hitting environment.  He is a candidate for further upside, although analysts are split on just how high his ceiling is a this point.

Rays:

Emilio Pagan, RHP.  DOB:  5/7/1991.  6'3", 210 lbs.

2018:  3-1, 4.35, 62 IP, 9.15 K/9, 2.76 BB/9.  Pagan is a solid mid-late inning reliever with 4 years of contract control.

Rollie Lacy is 23 yo, 6'4', 195 lbs.  He pitched at A+ level last season for the Rangers and Cubs systems with high ERA's and walk rates. Lottery ticket.

#38 Draft Pick- there is about a 1 in 10 chance of this pick netting a player who goes on to have a significant MLB career.

Rangers:

Eli White, SS/2B.  DOB:  6/26/1994.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 175 lbs.

2018 AA:  .306/.388/.450, 30 2B, 8 3B, 9 HR, 18 SB, 10.7 BB%, 20.1 K%, 578 PA.

Projects as a solid utility player.  Could play in MLB as soon as 2019.

Brock Burke, LHP.  DOB:  8/4/1996.  6'4", 200 lbs.

2018 A+:  3-5, 3.84, 82 IP, 9.55 K/9, 3.29 BB/9.
2018 AA:  6-1, 1.95, 55.1 IP, 11.55 K/9, 2.28 BB/9.

Breakout season with dominance in AA.  Big downward plane on a mid-90s FB per Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs.  Apparently changed grip on change-up making it a plus pitch.

Kyle Bird, LHP.  DOB:  4/12/1993.  6'2", 175 lbs.

2018 AA:  0-2, 3.66, 19.2 IP, 10.53 K/9, 4.12 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  3-1, 1.94, 55.2 IP, 10.51 K/9, 4.20 BB/9.

Again per Longenhagen, 4 pitch mix.  Low 90's FB, crazy high spin rates.  Walks too many batters.  Projects as lefty reliever.

Yoel Espinal, RHP.  DOB:  11/7/1992.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2018 A+:  0-1, 3.86, 9.1 IP, 7.71 K/9, 2.89 BB/9.
2018 AA:  3-3, 1.98, 54.2 IP, 11.69 K/9, 4.77 BB/9.

Mid-relief prospect.  Per Longenhagen, throws hard(94-95 MPH) with a "weird sinker/power changeup in the 89-91 range."

Seems to me the clear winners in this deal are the A's who get a solid MLB player with remaining upside.  Rays get a solid MLB reliever and seemed motivated to clear out a pitching logjam in their upper minors.  Rangers get pitching depth in their farm system but lose Profar who maybe was available due to some reported malcontent issues over manipulation of his service time in 2017.

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The Giants signed LHP/RHP Pat Venditte for a reported $585 K which is $30 K above the league minimum salary.  Venditte has long been a major curiosity to prospect watchers due to his ability to pitch both right and left handed.  He's kicked around baseball since since 2008 without much success in limited MLB opportunities.  He posted a 2.57 ERA in just 14 IP for the Dodgers last year but with a K rate of 5.8/9.  His FB sits in the mid-80's but plays up do to funkiness in his delivery which is close to sidearm from both sides.  He is much more effective as a LHP facing LH batters.  Right now it does not seem like he would make the Giants Opening Day roster without a trade or 2 involving lefty relievers.

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It looks like the Giants are not going to trade for Domingo Santana as he is reportedly going to the Mariners for OF Ben Gamel and RHP Noah Zavolas.  Trader Jerry strikes again!  Santana has tools and had a very promising 2017 in which he hit 30 dingers and stole 15 bases.  He got lost in the shuffle after the Brewers obtains Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain for 2018 and his numbers suffered dramatically. The big rap on Santana is his high K rate.

Gamel has put up a slash line of .269/.331/.392 in 3 MLB seasons.  He is a nice 4'th or 5'th OF.  Zavolas is a pitcher from the lower minors with non-descript numbers.  Lottery ticket.

This is a very nice upside play for the Mariners who give up very little in return.  Seems like a deal the Giants could have topped.  Maybe Santana's K rates were just too much for Farhan Zaidi to stomach?

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Finally, CC Sabathia reportedly underwent a coronary angioplasty with a stent placement.  Yikes! I guess size does matter and not in a good way!