Fantasy Focus: Impact Rookies- Braves Pitching Wave

If you want to give yourself a nice headache, try sorting out which of the Braves seemingly endless supply of pitching prospects is going to breakout in 2019.  There are at least 5 who could, but it's also possible none of them do.  Let's break it down(scouting reports are from Fangraphs):

Mike Soroka, RHP.  DOB:  8/4/1997.  6'4', 195 lbs.  Drafted 2915 Round 1, #28.

2018 AAA:  2-1, 2.00, 27 IP, 10.33 K/9, 2.00 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  2-1, 3.51, 25.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 2.45 BB/9.

Soroka pounds the zone with a low-90's FB with a high-spin breaking ball and a rapidly improving changeup.  Got shut down with shoulder problems but was reportedly hitting mid-90's in simulated games late in the season.  He is probably first in line for rotation spot if healthy in 2019. If he makes it, he's probably worth rostering immediately but remember the injury.

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Kyle Wright, RHP.  DOB:  10/2/1995.  6'4", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2017 Round 1 #5.

2018 AA:  6-8, 3.70, 109.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 3.54 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  2-1, 2.51, 28.2 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.51 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  0-0, 4.50, 6 IP, 7.50 K/9, 9.00 BB/9.

Kyle Wright is basically a scout's vision of what a pitching prospect should look like.  Per Fangraphs:  "He's a near ideal combination of frame, arm action, delivery, athleticism, broad repertoire and feel for pitching."  His FB is more of a contact pitch, but the slider is swing and miss.  He adds in a curveball and change.  Also per Fangraphs, he may need to use the slider more often at the MLB level.

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Touki Toussaint, RHP.  DOB:  6/20/1996.  6'3", 185 lbs.  Drafted 2014 Round 1, #16(D'Backs).

2018 AA:  4-6, 2.93, 86 IP, 11.20 K/9, 3.77 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  5-0, 1.43, 50.1 IP, 10.01 K/9, 3.04 BB/9.
2018: MLB:  2-1, 4.03, 29 IP, 9.93 K/9, 6.52 BB/9.

Touki has long been a favorite of the readers of this blog.  I think we can all now agree that he would have been a better pick for the Giants than Tyler Beede who the Giants took at #15.  I think Touki has the highest ceiling out of this wave of Braves pitching prospects.  His FB goes mid-high 90's with a plus curveball and a hard changeup.  He still runs into command issues at times.  He may start 2019 in AAA, but is likely to be called up during the season.  His last appearance of 2018 was 1 IP with 0 BB's and 3 K's.  I could see him moving toward a closer role especially with so much competition from within the Braves organization.

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Luiz Gohara, LHP.  DOB:  DOB:  7/31/1996.  6'3", 240 lbs.  International FA 2012(Mariners).

2018 AAA:  3-4, 4.94, 54.2 IP, 9.05 K/9, 2.47 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  0-1, 5.95, 19.2 IP, 8.24 K/9, 3.66 BB/9.

Big body pitcher with "high octane stuff."  Has had injury and off-field issues.  Reportedly lost a lot of weight and is in the "best shape of his life."   Of this group, he may have the biggest difference between ceiling and floor.  Success depends on health and focus. A real lottery ticket at this point.

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Kolby Allard, LHP.  DOB:  8/13/1997.  6'1", 175 lbs.  Drafted 2015 Round 1, #14.

2018 AAA:  6-4, 2.72, 112.1 IP, 7.13 K/9, 2.72 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  1-1, 12.38, 8 IP, 3.38 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

Allard is a pitchability lefty with 3 average to above average offerings. He's a bit undersized even for a lefty.  He was greeted rudely by MLB hitters in a small sample in 2018.  If his stuff doesn't play as a  SP at the MLB level, he could end up as a lefty reliever.

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Chad Sobotka, RHP.  DOB:  7/10/1993.  6'7", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2014 Round 4, #133.

2018 A+:  2-0, 2.21, 20.1 IP, 12.39 K/9, 3.10 BB/9.
2018 AA: 2-3, 1.93, 28 IP, 11.89 K/9, 4.18 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  0-0, 1.93, 9.1 IP, 11.57 K/9, 8.68 BB/9.
2018 MLB:  1-0, 1.88, 14.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 5.65 BB/9.

Sobotka rocketed up the Braves system last year and contributed in the postseason.  He's a big dude with a FB that touches triple digits.  His size and lack of athleticism make it hard for him to repeat his delivery so command issues may keep him in middle relief, but it's not impossible to see him as a future closer.

Max Fried is over the limit to be rookie eligible but he's another young pitcher who is basically in this same flotilla.  For fantasy baseball owners, it's is almost impossible to sort this out.  Each of these prospects could break out at any time, but it's not a lock that any of them will.  In redraft leagues, I advise monitoring the situation closely and try to make your move when it clarifies.  For deep keeper leagues, I am probably most bullish on Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint longterm.

I wrote this up as a Fantasy Focus, but it could easily be a Scouting the Hot Stove or Armchair GM piece.  The Braves have 3 veteran SP's on the roster:  Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb and the ever-intriguing and enigmatic Kevin Gausman.  That leaves the above shipload of prospects competing for the final 2 rotation spots.  The problem for the Braves is they are built to compete for championship now and that rotation really needs an ace or at least a near-ace to lead it.  The Braves have other pitching prospects who are not quite ready yet, so there is even more depth in the system that the ones who have tasted the MLB experience.  Now, there is really only one pitcher left on the FA market who could be described as an ace, Dallas Keuchal, and that is using the term ace very loosely.  In addition, Keuchal is likely to be quite expensive.  This seems like a perfect setup for the Braves to use this incredible pitching depth to acquire an ace.  Hmm.... let me think.  What team has an ace with postseason credentials they might be willing to trade for a great return package?.......