Time for predictions. If you are looking for surprises, you can stop reading now.
AL EAST:
1. Yankees- They have build a superteam. Aaron Judge may regress. Giancarlo Stanton could get hurt. They would still probably win their division. The starting pitching is only above average but the beastly bullpen has multi-inning, triple digit options stretching as far as the eye can see.
2. Red Sox- The lineup is top notch with added power in JD Martinez, but the pitching is shaky at best.
3. Blue Jays- Interesting mix of young and old talent, but until some uber-prospects like Vlad Jr. come online, they will significantly trail the top tier.
4. Orioles- Shoulda traded Manny Machado when they had a chance. Maybe they still will.
5. Rays- Rebuilding.
AL CENTRAL:
Indians- Might have the top pitching in baseball. Bold prediction: Yonder Alonso builds on last year's breakout.
Twins- I expect Byron Buxton to build on last year's second half. He's hitting 8'th. The Lance Lynn signing significantly boosts their chances.
White Sox- The massive flotilla of young talent will start to come aboard and will almost immediately tear things up. Sleeper team that could finish as high as second place if the Twins falter.
Tigers- I see at least a partial bounceback for Miggy, which will be enough to keep this rebuilding team out of the cellar.
Royals- The lineup is not terrible, but the pitching is.
AL WEST:
Astros- Another superteam that will be even better than last year.
Mariners- The pitching is thin but enough to move up in a thin division.
A's- The AJ Put injury was a big blow, but more of a psychological loss than present talent. The lineup is full of young sluggers. The pitching will be better than expected.
Angels- Mike Trout is still one of the 2 best players in baseball, but it thins out quickly after that. The pitching is extremely thin and injury prone.
Rangers- The lineup is not bad, but the pitching looks horrendous.
NL EAST:
Nationals- The pitching thins out a bit after Scherzer and Strasburg, but the overall talent level is top 3 in he NL.
Mets- Could challenge the Nationals if the pitchers stay healthy.
Phillies- The Rebuild starts to gain traction.
Braves- Will be noticeably better than last year and get stronger as the young studs gain experience. Could challenge the Phillies for 3'rd place.
Marlins- Jeter stripped the team for the big rebuild which is years away as a weak farm system did not improve much with the trades, which were mostly pure salary dumps.
NL CENTRAL:
1. Cubs- Lineup and starting pitching are as good as it gets, but the bullpen could be their Achilles heel.
2. Cardinals- underrated team that will likely be a Wild Card and could challenge the Cubs if everything breaks right. Terrific collection of young and established talent.
3. Brewers- BrewCrew went all in on offense. Should have paid more attention to pitching.
4. Pirates- Back in strange limbo of not contending and not rebuilding. Marte and Polanco should bounce back, but the pitching is in rough shape.
5. Reds- Some spring injuries did not help a weak pitching staff, but enough young talent to challenge the Pirates for 4'th place.
NL WEST:
1. Dodgers- The Turner injury is a big blow and the pitching looks shaky to me after Kershaw and Jensen. Still enough talent to hold off the Rockies and D'Backs.
2. Rockies- Will have a ridiculous offense in spite of re-signing CarGo. The pitching has some questions marks but overall good enough to challenge the Dodgers for first place.
3. Diamondbacks- The Humidor Effect is expected to make an already strong pitching staff even stronger. Reports of Zack Grienke's demise are exaggerated. The bullpen is shaky beyond Archie Bradley.
4. Padres- Margot, Hosmer and Myers at the top of the lineup will score some runs. Jose Pirela may lengthen the lineup with a breakout season. The pitching is in rough shape.
5. Giants- Sorry Giants fans. Bobby Evans did a masterful job upgrading the offense and defense while staying under the CBT threshold, but the threshold kept him from addressing weaknesses in the pitching staff. The entire plan hinged on Madison Bumgarner returning to ace status and Mark Melancon fully recovering from surgery. With Bum out for at least a third of the season and Melancon obviously not right physically, the pitching is dangerously thin. Best case scenario is they are a .500 team when Bum returns and then claw their way into a Wild Card spot. A much more likely scenario is they are 10 games behind in the Wild Card race by the time he gets back and Evans/Sabes hold a midseason firesale. If that happens, Bumgarner would bring back the biggest return. The draft, July 2 international signing day and trade deadline loom as the highlights of a tough season. Unfortunately, a very spoiled fanbase will not take that well and the pitchforks will be out for Sabes, Evans and Bochy. Ownership is overly sensitive to the wishes of the fanbase so big changes could occur, which would be a mistake, IMO.
AL Playoff Teams: Yankees, Indians, Astros, Red Sox, Twins.
NL Playoff Teams: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cardinals, Rockies.
World Series: Indians over Rockies.
NL MVP: Trea Turner.
AL MVP: Jose Altuve
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
AL Cy Young: Cory Kluber
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Eloy Jimenez
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re: the Giants prediction - and the worst case scenario would be the Giants 10+ games back in the Wild Card race and they *don't* hold a fire sale.
ReplyDeleteDoc; I understand where you are coming from re your comments about the Giants.
ReplyDeleteI believe tonight's game will provide a very real idea what if any chances the Giants have for a successful season.
My prediction Giants win 5 to 4. I expect Bulldog Blach to pitch a outstanding game.
Richard in Winnipeg
Melancon has a flexor strain. He'll start the season on the DL.
ReplyDeleteHolland signed with the Cardinals today. So even if we had the space under the luxury tax, we couldn't sign him.
Blach: The Kershaw killer. He hits him. He out-duels him. Strangest thing, that.
No stats to back this up, but I feel like Kershaw can be "got" in the first couple weeks of a season and the playoffs. If there was ever a time you want to face him, it would be Night #1 in front of his home crowd. As a former (not very good one, to clarify) college pitcher, even a slight amount of adrenaline or feeling of "awe" of the moment can throw off command and/or hype up your velocity which ends up fatiguing your arm 8-10 pitches earlier. Lots of tiny details to consider for a guy like Kershaw who has a lot of pressure.
ReplyDeleteI say the Giants push him pretty well but lose with a crappy bullpen tonight: 6-5.
What a Bullpen! - Watson was a key pick up, Osich regains his groove, maybe Strickland matures = could have used these guys against the Angels game 6 or elimination game v Cubs
DeleteDoc, I have to disagree with your prediction about the Giants. Losing MadBum, Shark, and Melancon is rough, but the Giants seem a whole lot deeper in the bench, bullpen and even starting pitching this season than last season. If Cueto and Crawford rebound, Belt stays healthy and Holland performs at the beginning of this season like last season, the Giants should be in good shape. As for the hated ones, Kershaw has not reach 180 innings pitched the last 2 seasons and just turn 30. I would be very surprised if he pitched 180 innings this season.
ReplyDeleteIt's really pretty simple for the Giants to win:
ReplyDeleteEVERYTHING HAS TO GO RIGHT and Bum + Shark have to comeback strong.
That'd obviously NOT a good bet!
From Australia, where being down under is not upskirting.
Today, March 30th in Australia, may be the high point of the year for the Giants.
ReplyDeleteAs it's only Thursday at home, SF is even with everyone!
I think the Giants can stay in the race, while Bum and Shark are out. I don't think everything has to go right - for example, the offense is pretty good as projected, and the bullpen too - but certain things now MUST happen: Cueto returns to 2016 form; Stratton continues late 2017 form; Holland continues to do well enough in early season; and Strickland and Osich has to deliver on new promise, while Dyson and Watson has to deliver on old potential. Lots of ifs, but I think there is a good chance for each to happen. The major problem is that we really need most to happen, and while I think each individual odds are good, as a group, not really sure if it'll happen for us.
ReplyDeleteBut the Giants are a plucky bunch, at least this era has been. Sabean called them cockroaches but that's not very complimentary, I would go with tenacious.
Oh, didn't finish my thought. I think the Giants can get through these injuries (any more, though, and that might push the season over the edge for me), and once the two horses are back, I think that their success early without them will give them a boost of energy and confidence with each of their returns, much like when Schmidt returned long ago.
ReplyDeleteI had thought that they were competitive for the wild cards and I still think that they can make it, though obviously their road is harder now. Whereas I thought it was a given before, we will need some good things to happen now.
But baseball is funny like that, sometimes good things happen for your team and bad things happen to the other team. There is a lot of baseball to happen before I will join the "sky is falling" club.