Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Bay Bridge Series Game Wrap 3/26/2018: A's 9 Giants 2

The A's broke open a 2-2 tie in the top of the 10'th inning for the runaway win.  Key Lines:

Derek Holland LHP- 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 4.05.  If Holland pitches this well in the the regular season, it will be a big boost to the Giants fortunes. Holland had a sub-3 ERA in April and May last year before his season fell apart for some reason.  All the Giants need from his this year is a good April and May.

DJ Snelton LHP- 0.0 IP, 5 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 13.50.  Snelton pitched in very bad luck.  First batter reached on a K/WP.  Second batter his a soft liner to CF for a single.  Next batter found a hole on the left side for another single.  As is typical of many young pitchers, things deteriorated from there and the route was on.


Fantasy Focus:  Around the League

Zack Greinke SP, D'Backs- 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 1.04.  Greinke's velocity was way down early this spring.  No word on what it was yesterday, but this is a great line to finish off the preseason with.  There is a lot of excitement over D'Backs pitchers in general due to the humidor effect.

Brent Suter SP, Brewers- 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 4.57.  Sleeper alert!

Delino DeShields OF, Rangers- 2 for 3.  BA= .350.  Deshields is not exactly a secret anymore, but his ADP is still lower than Billy Hamilton's and he's likely to bring back better overall value.

AJ Minter RP, Braves- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.  If you are looking for a Closer In Waiting late in your draft or to pick up, Minter is the guy in ATL.  The next Craig Kimbrel?

Didi Gregorius SS, Yankees- 1 for 2, HR(5), BB.  BA= .283.  I want Didi, but I'm afraid my Yankees fan friend will fight me for him in our auction draft.  I need a backup plan.

Michael Wacha SP, Cardinals- 4 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 3.32.  Wacha has had a rough couple of years, but seems healthier this spring.  Don't bet a lot on him, but with the dearth of pitching around the league, he might be worth a late round flyer.

Dominic Leone RP, Cardinals- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, Save(4).  ERA= 0.90.  With Gregerson on the DL, Leone will start the season as the Cardinals Closer.  He may not relinquish that after Gregerson gets back.  Many analysts believe Leone would eventually take over even is Gregerson was healthy and started the season as the Closer.

Teoscar Hernandez OF, Blue Jays- 2 for 2, 3B, SB(3).  BA= .365.  The BJ's seem set on starting Randall Grichuk in RF which keeps Teoscar from being a nice sleeper pick.

Nate Eovaldi SP, Marlins- 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 3.24.  If Eovaldi is finally healthy, he could be an option in a pitching-starved market.

Francisco Liriano SP, Tigers- 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K's.  ERA= 2.25.  Liriano runs hot and cold.  If you catch him at the right time, he can give you a good run.


  1. I go to bed at a 1-1 tie. I wake up - WTH? Extra innings and blown out... Wow.

  2. Here's my supposition on Holland, please hack away at the logic.

    His last full season was in 2013. Injuries prevented him from pitching the full season in healthy from 2014-2016, hence why he's been saying this spring that the positive about 2017 was that he was healthy the whole season. He pitched 37.0 IP in 2014, 58.2 IP in 2015, 107.1 IP in 2016, so his arm has not been throwing for that many innings before 2017.

    In 2015, he did not pitch much, just 58.2 IP for the season. He went on the DL after an inning in his first start. When he returned, he was good for 4 starts, 29.1 IP with 2.15 ERA.

    In 2016, he was excellent in his first five starts, covering 29.0 IP, only 5.6 K/9 but okay 2.25 K/BB ratio, for a great 2.48 ERA/3.62 FIP. Then he started having downs and ups, but he was still okay overall up to his 11th start, when he had 4.53 ERA/4.29 FIP in 59.2 IP, and then he was mostly down after that, with a few ups. He was also great for two starts after he returned from the DL, before he lost it all again.

    In 2017, he was excellent in his first ten starts, covering 60.2 IP, 2.37 ERA/4.47 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.17 K/BB, 8 of 10 quality starts per Game Score. And okay up to 82.1 IP. Then his season went off the rails again.

    So, in 2015, he was very good for 29.1 IP, but horrible after, then in 2016, he was very good for 29.0 IP, and okay for 59.2 IP, but horrible after, then in 2017, he was very good for 60.2 IP, and okay for 82.1 IP, but horrible after.

    So he seems to be building up his IP stamina in the way Krukow always talk about, but our pitchers always seem to beat, which adding about 25-30 IP per season. So based on this pattern, that means that he'll be great, for about 80-90 IP, good for 100-120 IP, then horrible afterward, at which point, he probably should be the long reliever, where the extra rest would do him good.

    That 80-90 IP, where he's great, would be reached around the time Bumgarner is ready to return, so at that point, we could move Bumgarner into Holland's spot, and shift him to long relief, where he can build up arm strength for next season, and battle for a rotation spot.

    Is that crazy or does it make sense?