Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Blogger's Note: Moving Day!

I and my family are moving to a new home today.  I am not sure when I will have computer/internet back up and running.  Please check back periodically.  It could be a few days, though.


  1. Godspeed Doc. Just got done with a move on the 29th myself, it's always a bit stressful but also very enjoyable to build a new home.

    We'll manage without your daily updates. Somehow.

    Still waiting on any updates on Dozier and the Korean SS/3B. We'll use this thread to post updates as and if they come out.

  2. Everyone probably knows that the Twins want to wrap the trade talk for Dozier soon, or so their local pundits claim. Makes sense: not a great way to treat a valued asset, leaving him dangling on a string.
    SF has to be interested if no other reason than to deny the Dogs a cheap (payroll-wise) solution for their 2B problem.
    What would it take?
    If the Twins are balking on De Leon solo, even Beede (or the choice of SF's prospects) wouldn't do it, obviously, as most "analysts" have theirs (Dodgers') far ahead of ours, although to SF that might not be the case. The Giants may well feel losing Beede is more costly to them than losing De Leon would be to LA.
    Panik himself is the wild card: arguably he is comparable to Dozier (except in power production) AND he is younger, cheaper, and controllable longer -- twice as long.
    Does he balance Twins' apparent demand for the extra value beyond De Leon?
    If so, maybe two or three pitcher prospects from SF to "balance" De Leon (to minds other than ours), one high and one mid-high and another?
    From Doc's top 50 (plus one high profile prospect):
    2. Tyler Beede, RHP
    4. Ty Blach, LHP
    7. Andrew Suarez, LHP
    11. Steven Okert, LHP
    12. Joan Gregorio, RHP
    13. Chris Stratton, RHP
    14. Dan Slania, RHP
    18. Sam Coonrod, RHP
    22. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
    23. Matt Gage, LHP
    24. Cory Taylor, RHP
    29. Reyes Maronta, RHP
    30. Rodolfo Martinez, RHP
    32. Heath Slatton, RHP
    39. Melvin Adon, RHP
    41. Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
    42. Matt Krook, LHP
    43. Mac Marshall, LHP
    48. Sandro Cabrera, LHP
    49. Chase Johnson, RHP
    50. Jordan Johnson, RHP
    HM: Ray Black RHP
    If the Twins really would take De Leon and another high value prospect from the Dodgers, what would balance De Leon?
    Beede, Stratton, Black, and Panik?
    That's far more than the Giants would or should consider, IMO.

    1. Agreed - the asking price is too high, unless the Giants feel they want to make Dozier part of their long term plans. In that case, there's an additional card to play, and that would be Christian Arroyo.

      And I wouldn't do it. I don't see any match here between the two teams, since Beede and Arroyo are huge parts the of the Giant's long-term on-field and financial plans. Dozier gets VERY expensive in 2 years, and the Giants need to allow talent from their farm to take over in order to allow established stars (Posey, Bum, Cueto, Belt, Crawford, Samardizja, Panik, Melancon) all to receive strong contracts for the long haul. That's Dodgers/Yankees/BoSox-level cash they're fronting for their star core, and it needs to be supplemented with inexpensive talent. Particularly: inexpensive high-production talent, as it seems Beede and Arroyo may potentially be bringing up the line with them.

      As nice as Dozier sounds, unless the Twins are willing to take Nunez + Slater + Suarez + Williamson, it's a non-starter. I wouldn't trade Shaw at this point either, honestly. Too much potential still unknown to trade him this early. He's excelled from day 1, and as Doc pointed out (I really didn't see this until it was printed here) Shaw's final month in AA sang to the tune of ".279/.322/.505". That's too good to let go for a solid but incremental upgrade at 3B.

      Love to have the guy, but the Giants sold the farm last year for Matt Moore Will Smith and Edgardo Nunez. That was the stock-pile; pretty much all of it. They'll need to wait another season or 2 for Reynolds, Emmanual Burris..err, I mean Jalen Miller, Quinn, Davis et al. to develop into high level prospects.

    2. I don't think the Giants would need to give up either Arroyo or Beede for Dozier, or at least to have a better offer than Jose De Leon straight up. Joe Panik is the key. It's not that I don't like Joe Panik, but I do think Dozier would be a significant upgrade over the next 2 seasons and since he would play Panik's position, the Giants are not really losing anything by making Panik the centerpiece. The reason why the Twins would want Panik is they are rebuilding and would control his contract for 4 years instead of the 2 with Dozier. My offer would be Panik, one of Shaw/Duggar/Slater, Gregorio and Adon.

    3. I'm not particularly interested in giving up Panik - even for a solid/marginal upgrade in Dozier. My plan would be to transition Dozier to 3B. You just cannot breakup a gold-glove combo at SS-2B, particularly when Panik has ample bat improvements still ahead. I think he'll end up being a .290/.350/.440 guy in his career, and you add that to GG work at 2B, and he's a guy you take in his young/cheap years.

  3. Did a lot of us waste some hours this weekend watching what was, although far from riveting, not as ludicrous as two teams playing 162 regular season games to qualify for a 1-game playoff to get into a best of 5 with the best team in the league. No wonder premium pitching has become more important than bashers!
    Four contests won by a total of 76 points, with nasty injuries, dropped passes, silly penalties, missed calls, and not particularly entertaining.
    All this with no DrB to help us through a weekend of infamy!

  4. If the Giants want to give up too much for a player, wouldn't be better to give up too much for McCutchen than Dozier -- especially if Span is part of the deal? Roll the dice for 2 years!
    We miss you, Doc -- horrible withdrawals!

    1. I guess it depends on whether you think last year was the beginning of the downside of McCutchen's career.

    2. Yeah, I was getting to the point of checking four-or-five times a day.

  5. Tomorrow makes a week!
    Did you know nothing would happen?