Thursday, June 6, 2013

Scouting the Draft: Giants Day 1 Review- Cutting Against the Grain

The Giants are well known for thumbing their nose at consensus and cutting against the grain of the draft.  Boy, did they ever do both with this one?!!  In a draft that was heavy on pitching, which has always been their forte, the Giants took a high school shortstop with the #25 pick in round 1 and for good measure, took another one in round 2, #64 albeit one who will likely move to 3B in the pros.  Both players were ranked much lower their their draft position by virtually all pre-draft analysts.

So, what are the Giants up to here?  Are they crazy?  Are they punting the draft?  Are they smarter than anyone else?  Let's try to break it down.  The key word in the previous sentence is "try".

A draft analyst/blogger named Kiley McDaniel went with a rumor that the Giants were planning to draft HS SS Christian Arroyo at #25 and sign him to an underslot contract.  Turns out he was right, at least about the first part. BA had him ranked as the #102 draft prospect.  He's out of Hernando HS, Brooksville, FL.  He is 6'1", 180 lbs.  He has a reputation as an excellent hitter who squares up balls.  His HS stats, for what they are worth:  BA= .524, 105 AB, 42 R, 55 H, 13 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB.  The main knocks against him are  lack of projectable power and lack of speed.  There is some question about whether he can stick at SS.  There is talk of him possibly moving to 2B or even catcher.  He seems to be something of an academic nerd who sported a 4.4 GPA and took AP calculus. He is committed to Florida, but has said he will sign if he price is right, which he has not defined further.

I'll say this.  If you are someone who dreams on 5 tool guys, you probably hate this pick.  If you are of the persuasion that there is only one tool that really counts, the hit tool, you will have a lot more equanimity about it.

In round 2, pick 64, the Giants selected Ryder Jones out of Watauga HS, Boone, NC.  He is bigger than Arroyo at 6'3", 185 lbs.  He is B-L, T-R.  He played SS in HS but was listed in BA as a 3B.  He also pitches with a 90+ MPH FB, but is expected to develop as a position player.  BA's scouting comment was that he has "solid power" at the plate.  His HS batting stats, again, for what they are worth:  BA= .461.  76 AB, 31 R, 35 H, 9 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB.  The kicker is he is committed to Stanford which, if the rumors about Arroyo signing below slot are correct, may explain what the Giants intend to do with the money saved, sign Jones!

I'll say this.  I guess Jones is a 3 tool player:  hit, hit for power, throw.  Again, the hit tool is what stands out.  Are we seeing a John Barr trend here?

My guess is these picks are part of a grand draft strategy the Giants worked out ahead of time and they either know or are pretty sure they can get both players signed.  It will be extremely interesting to see if they have any more tricks up their sleeve over the rest of the top 10 picks which encompass their bonus pool.  Will they spend the pool on their first 2 HS picks and go college senior the rest of the way, or will they push the HS theme down to the $500 K bonus level or lower?  My own bias is that if you go HS, you better go all in with multiple picks and hope 1 or 2 pan out.

I'm not doing cartwheels, but I'm also not ready to pan these picks.  There is certainly something to be said for valuing the hit tool above all and both of these kids seem to have it.  HS picks require a ton of patience, though, and us internet denizens tend to be a rather impatient bunch.

20 comments:

  1. I'm concerned about their plate discipline. If they have a 3% walk rate they have a slim chance of being of any value. The approach at the plate is set in concrete it seems.

    Do you have those numbers?

    Walter Guest

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    1. HS stats are hard to come by. I do not have their BB rates. The Giants are well known for not caring on whit about walk rates, though, and I'm OK with that.

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  2. I always have mixed feelings about early HS draft picks because I think they are riskier because the team is betting more on the player reaching his upside potential. High risk can also bring you high reward too.. Like you said, fans are going to have to be patient. The Giants have done well lately with early HS picks like Zach Wheeler, Tommy Joseph, MADBUM.. This makes for an interesting 2nd day tomorrow.

    LG

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  3. According to Maxpreps, Arroyo has a K/BB of 10/10 in 119 plate appearances and Ryder Jones drew 21 walks this past season and was the NC player of the year as a 2-way player.

    As far as plate discipline goes, I would say that Arroyo looks more like a guy who makes a lot of contact and doesn't make active attempts at drawing too many walks. That may be a bad thing for him because he hasn't faced professional pitching yet and may have to refine his approach a bit. With that said, walks aren't really the full definition of plate discipline and judging by his stats on Maxpreps such as a slugging percentage of 1.019, it may be possible that he knows how to work the count and make good contact with hittable pitches.

    Ryder Jones batted .461 with 11 home runs and 43 RBI this past season and compiled a .652 on-base percentage and a .987 slugging percentage(got those numbers from a USA today high school sports article). Since he is a young power hitter I would assume that he may strike out quite a bit at this point, but that doesn't always mean it will stay that way. He will grow up and will hopefully improve that part of his game if it is an issue right now. From what i understand, he was a candidate to slide heavily due to his commitment to Stanford so it's possible that the Giants saw something they liked and took Arroyo early to have enough room to justify picking Jones and paying him.

    Personally I cant say I was overly excited about this draft haul when studs like Clarkin, Demeritte, Krook, and Devin Williams were all available at 1-25 but hey, I don't know everything. We should all be patient of these guys for now, HS players take some time. For now we will have to focus on guys a little further along and hope for the best that Day 2 and 3 will garner some pleasant surprises.

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    1. A K/BB of 1 or lower is right in line with guys like Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. It does seem that when he is evaluating the hit tool, Barr is relying on K/BB ratios fairly heavily. It seems like there are two types of hitters Barr thinks are undervalued: Guys with isolated power and guys with less power, but great K/BB.

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  4. I can see the Giant's thinking on this draft. The future pitching seems OK with the guys in San Jose and Augusta, along with Surkamp and possibly Fabio Castillo. If two of them develop into No. 3 starters, which is likely, they are covered. Another may pop up in the meantime.

    So they went for hitting short stops. The advantage of drafting shortstops is they can be switched to any position, even catcher apparently. It's a great plan...if these guys can really hit.

    Walter Guest

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  5. And on the subject of position switches, now would be a great time to put Pagan in left to "take the strain off his legs" after his recent injury. Pagan is good in center but Blanco is top tier out there.

    Walter Guest

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  6. Red flag, red flag, red flag. According to CSN, Arroyo had a .524 average, .554 on-base percentage. Unless my math is off, and it hasn't been on much lately, that means his walks (intentional and otherwise) and HBP combine to under 3%.

    If that's right, the Giants have probably wasted another first round pick. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe the numbers are wrong.

    Walter Guest

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    1. If you can hit .524 by swinging, why on Earth would you not swing?

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    2. While his walk rate is important to an extent, DrB made the two points I was going to make.

      A low k-rate means he has a high contact rate, which in the past is correlated with having a good batting average. And a low walk rate is not indicative of anything when someone is hitting .524, other than what were the other teams thinking, pitching to the guy?

      That was the problem with the analysis of Brown when he was drafted, everyone focused on his low walk rate but ignored the fact that his hitting was so good that replacing 5 of his PA with walks would have reduced, yes, reduced, his overall OPS. He not only was hitting that well, he was hitting for power too. Same with Arroyo here, when you hit that well, I wouldn't want him taking walks, I want him swinging away.

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  7. It's interesting that Billy Beane's No. 1 pick, Billy McKinney, had about a 30% walk rate as a senior.

    Walter Guest

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    1. Isolated walk rates are not everything. Jarrett Parker, to name one, has a terrific walk rate, but also K's a ton and he has really struggled as a prospect. Billy Beane is well known to emphasize walk rates, K rates be damned. Barr and the Giants seem to have taken a big time interest in walk/strikeout ratios of late. Maybe using ratios is an advancement? Maybe not? Maybe there is more than one way to find good hitters?

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  8. The Giants decided that Ryder Jones isn't a college guy, and they're trying to rescue him from Stanford Swingitis. You have to go strong to get the buyout. With their limited funds, that requires the 2nd round bullet money.

    I agree that the hit tool is the most important. I worry a little bit about the lack of speed, but maybe Arroyo's plays well and Jones doesn't matter as much as a corner. Jones is the Gatorade player of the year for NC, and Arroyo is the MVP of the Team USA under 18. I do like that aspect a lot. Those are earned hardware. They both appear to be overdrafts, but you could make arguments that neither would be there the next GIANTS pick. Arroyo could easily have been snagged in the 50s, and Jones might be gone baby gone to college by the 101 and its 500K slot.

    OK with it, don't love it, lets see what happens today.

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  9. The strategy - I think they are essentially trying to draft guys like DJ Pederson, and Colin Moran except straight out high school. If Arroyo and Jones went to college they seem to profile as pretty strong candidates for success, and thus potentially would be the "safe" college position player picks that always get snatched so early.

    I mean, if you had drafted Buster Posey in the late frist round of the 2005 draft you'd have been called crazy.

    There are obvious pitfalls to this strategy, but that seems to be what they were thinking.

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    1. I was thinking of this too. Arroyo and Jones do seem very much like DJ Peterson and Colin Moran type hitters which the Giants. If they are likely to develop into that in college, why not develop them as pros starting 3 years earlier? That is basically Klima's argument.

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  10. I think as fans we just wish they would go after the fireballers and 5 tool players without the need for as much development and molding.

    Billy Beane's picks this year make far more sense. It's weird.

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    1. Not sure I understand any of this post. Fireballers and 5 tool players are often the ones who need the most molding. It would not surprise me at all if a young player with a great hit tool like Arroyo/Jones progresses much faster than someone with 5 tools but lots of holes in their swing.

      As for Billy Beane, more sense than what? More sense than last year? I thought he did quite well in the draft last year, thank you. More sense than the Giants? For one thing, he is picking 1 slot ahead of the Giants. The Giants are rumored to have been interested in McKinney, but Beane took him off the board by the time the Giants picked, so it's a moot issue.

      After looking at Beane's top 6 picks this year, I don't know if I necessarily agree that his picks make more sense than the Giants or any other organizations. Beane is a good GM. He's not God. His long term track record in the draft is not that good even though the believers ooh and aah over them every year.

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  11. Tyler Horan in round 8! Did I call that or what? Woo Hoo!!!!!

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    1. Do you have a scouting report on him? Sounds like an all or nothing type of player.

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