Friday, June 7, 2013

Scouting the Draft: Day 2

Day 2 of the MLB First Year Draft started off strangely for the Giants as they took an obscure college reliever in round 3, but then things got good and they ran off a string of inspired picks to bring Day 2 to a successful conclusion.  Let's break it down:

Round 3 #101  Chase Johnson, RHP, Cal-Poly, 6'3", 190 lbs. Jr.  0-0, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 9 BB, 21 K's.

Johnson was Cal Poly's closer in 2012, but for unclear reasons, lost that role to Reid Reilly.  Johnson was used sparingly this year, yet pitched well when he had a chance.  His MLB scouting report has his FB up to 93 with sink and an average changeup and slider.  On the surface, this is a strange pick in the 3'rd round, but I think I have this thing scoped out.  Listen up, team!  Here's the deal.  The third round has a slot bonus of $510 K.  This guy can probably be signed for around $100 K which frees up about $400 K to help ensure the Giants can go to war with Stanford over Jones and Ragira.  At least I hope that's the plan because if it isn't, this is a bad pick!

Round 4 #132  Brian Ragira, 1B, Stanford, B-R, T-R, 6'2", 185 lbs,  Jr.  .320/.375/.482, 8 HR, 4 SB.

Classic John Barr 4'th round pick.  HS phenom who started off well his first two years of college whose stock slips in his junior year.  Ragira has his warts, but I like the upside of this pick for round 4.  I remember video of his swing coming out of HS and loving it.  Very wristy.  Reminded me a lot of Hank Aaron or Eric Davis.  Not sure what they do to hitters at Stanford, but that may have held back his growth as a prospect.  He has serious raw power and hit 9 HR's using wood bats in the CCL.  Doesn't walk a lot but also doesn't K a lot.  Could bust, but the ceiling is very high.  Again, love the pick at this spot, assuming they sign him.

Round 5 #162  Daniel Slania, RHP, Notre Dame, 6'5",265 lbs, Jr.  3-1, 1.21, 59.1 IP, 11 BB, 43 K, 13 Saves.

Jumbo college closer who I've had my eye on pre-draft.  Mid 90's heat with a sharp slider as an out-pitch.  He also has a very good changeup with enough command that he could be considered for a starting role in the pros.  I am really surprised Slania lasted this long.  Terrific pick!

Round 6 #192  Nick Vander Tuig, RHP, UCLA, 6'3", 195 lbs, Jr.  11-4, 2.51, 107.2 IP, 17 BB, 77 K's.

Classic polished college starter.  Low 90's FB with good command of 4 pitches.  Should be a relatively fast mover with a ceiling of a 4'th or 5'th starter in the majors.  Nice value in Round 6.

Round 7 #222  Brandon Bednar, SS, Florida Gulf Coast, B-R, T-R, 6'4", 185 lbs, Jr.  .336/.394/.441, 17 2B, 1 HR, 7 SB, 23 K, 15 BB, 10 HBP.

Don't know much about this guy.  First position player from FGCU to be drafted in the top 25 rounds.  Apparently quite athletic.  Can play SS, but could play multiple positions and develop into a utility player.  Strong arm.  Bat is relatively undeveloped. Line drive swing that makes good contact.  Could possibly walk a bit more, but does not K a lot.  Continues the John Barr pattern of good K/BB.  OK pick at #7.

Round 8 #252  Tyler Horan, OF, Virginia Tech, B-L, T-R, 6'2", 230 lbs, Sr.  .342/.391/.603, 26 2B, 4 3B, 11 HR, 5 SB, 257 AB, 18 BB, 38 K.

My white whale!  Did I call this or what?  Chunky body who moves well enough to play LF.  Pure hitter!  Hits for average with plus power.  Set a Cape Cod League record with 16 dingers!  Quick bat without much load.  Some scouts worry about K's, but his college numbers are not terrible.  I absolutely love this pick at #8.  In fact, I was praying for it!

Round 9 #282  Donald Snelton, LHP, Minnesota, 6'6", 215 lbs, Jr.  5-2, 2.15, 58.2 IP, 19 BB, 42 K's.

Dodgers took teammate Tom Windle in round 2, but I think I might like this guy a bit better.  Great size.  FB up to 94.  Still developing secondary stuff.  May not move as fast as Windle, but may well have a higher ceiling.  Nice pick!

Round 10 #312  Tyler Rogers, RHP, Austin Peay St., 6'4", 190 lbs, Sr.  7-2, 1.63, 49.2 IP, 27 BB, 41 K's, 23 Saves.

College Closer from a smaller D1 program.  His pic on the Austin Peay website looks like he is throwing sidearm or from down under.  I think every bullpen should have 1 sidearmer from each side.  Another nice pick.

Now that I've seen the top 10 picks, this draft is already growing on me.  Interesting interview with John Barr on CSN Bay Area.  He brushed aside questions about where Arroyo would play and stated, "he's an offensive player", making it clear that he is in love with the bat.   Barr has definitely developed a profile of the type of hitter he is looking for.  This draft will eventually go a long way toward proving or disproving whether his theories are right. I love the conviction though!


  1. Its fun for me to follow the draft on 2 fronts; the Giants picks and the Hawaii Baseball Program. This draft is growing on me too. After checking out that John Barr interview, can't wait to see Arroyo start his pro career, When I saw the 3rd round pick from Cal Poly, I thought they drafted their closer. I got him mixed up with Reid Reilly! Maybe Daniel Slania is the next Jonathon Broxton.. Drb-I remember you bringing up Tyler Horan when I asked about Eric Jaglielo. Good call! I will like this draft even more if they can sign all these players

    Thanks to you and Shankbone on your great draft coverage


  2. Tyler Rogers looks filthy:

    1. I think he is actually batting in that one.

      He's #14 so here's a video of him striking someone out.

  3. I have to wonder if they see Arroyo as their successor to Scutaro, now that they've had a taste of that type of steady hitting clinic production out of a middle infielder with that "it" factor to anchor a post season win.

    With Scutaro a couple years from retirement, how do you continue with that fluke formula? If you could draft a project who had that potential, you might hype yourself up into believing he was that rare bird who could possibly fit that slot, and overdraft, going all in on him. Otherwise, on the surface it seems like there were better SS, better 4 tool players, maybe even better hitters available. It certainly makes things interesting.

    1. Well, that is where scouting comes in. Apparently the Giants did not think there were better hitters available. It's all in the eye of the beholder. It takes courage to go your own way in a draft like this, especially now that the MLB draft is scrutinized almost as much as the NBA and NFL. If it works out, they are geniuses. If not, there will be an awful lot of I-told-you-so's.

  4. Great summary of the picks. I had the same thought on the Cal Poly pick, but there's one fly in the ointment - why not just pick Rigara there at 101 instead, you give him the prestige of a 3rd round pick, more money to start negotiations. I fear that is just the guy the Giants like. I guess you can play hardball with him, and the pick is protected, so there is that, but the Giants just seem to play things straight on their board.

    Other teams had wide variation on "the established order" of talent pretty quickly this year. There was definitely differing opinions on rankings, which widened considerably after the first 3 rounds.

    You have 3 big corner bats in Jones, Ragira and Horan. They list Bednar as a SS but he's 6'4.

    I thought the Minny Lefty was an inspired pick. Slania is just a huge, huge guy. The Giants have a good record trolling for the power bullpen arm right there (Hembree, Johnson) and he might be able to convert to starting.

    Definitely going to be a waiting period on this, I have to think Scott Broscius (Team USA coach) sang Arroyo's praises in addition to cement their conviction. We have to remember this org is built on the backs of ex-Yank scouts. If you know a guy is there in the first, he's ranked right where you have your third, its awful tempting to split the difference to the 2nd round. But what if he gets snagged?

    I'll put it this way: without the rumors of underslot, would that change anything? That part of the equation is wrong, it was just folks making an informed guess based on the ranking order. Giants will pay close to full boat for this guy. I like him, I think it was an overdraft, and I hope he can hit the hell out of the ball.

    1. I think it could take approximately $1 M each to sign Jones and Ragira. They can get pretty close to that if they shave $200 K off Arroyo's bonus and another $400 K off Johnson's.

      Agree that it does not make sense to shave the 3'rd round pick to give to the 4'th round pick when you simply could have drafted the 4'th round guy higher. Maybe at that point they weren't sure what their needs were going to be, so just wanted flexibility?

      I also agree that there is something about this draft that at least vaguely harkens back to the 1990's Yanks. Paul O'Neil, Broshuis, etc were exactly this type of player. Even Jeter had a great hit tool and not all that much else if I remember correctly.

      Also agree that Arroyo was the guy the Giants wanted all along and they were not confident he would still be there in Round 2.

    2. Hey, what a great start to the Day 3 eh? I love those first 3 picks, and mucking around comping other teams I have to say I like the Giants the most. Sure you can go try and overslot a high profile HS arm, but that's a 5% chance most likely. Getting Ross in the 12th, if they can land him, is a great pick. I'd say its 50-50, and it might depend on how much they can shave off their 1-10 guys.

      The more I look at Arroyo, the more I like it. Its a huge risk, but its also huge reward. Wish they grabbed Michael O'Neill instead of Chase Johnson, but what you gonna do? Or this Drew Ward character. But there definitely is the chance they have some sneaky move there in the 3rd.

      BTW, saw Jacoby Jones hitting a triple last night... Man I like him. He just singled in a run live Game 2. For a guy criticized for lax play, he sure seems locked in right now. Now I get to see what our 12th round pick does with 1 out 1 in and a runner on 2nd!

    3. Because I know you're waiting with baited breath... Ross smoked a ball to the alley but it held up for an out. LSU is fun to watch, great fans and great program.

      Here's the thing with Arroyo: he is a lot like Alex Bregman. Bat is special, Team USA, don't really have a position yet. Would I have been happier with him in the 2nd? Sure, but I'm pretty happy with him period. Lets see what happens, I sure would have wanted Alex Bregman with the first round pick last year after the freshman year he's had!

      Jacoby Jones, what I see is a tooled up guy who can smoke balls effortlessly and run like the wind. And what I'm seeing right now is a guy who cares a ton, which is his big knock. If the Bucs don't screw up the signing (as they did twice in the 10 rounds last year), they might have got a dude.

    4. I agree Arroyo is cut out of the same cloth as Bregman and Shilo McCall. I'm trying to think if other guys who might be comps. How about Dustin Pedroia? Ryne Sandburg? Ben Zobrist? Those are the types of players I think the Giants are hoping a guy like Arroyo can turn into.

    5. Oh and hey, did you notice they snagged Jake McCasland wasn't he the dude they wrangled with over a contract and ended up having to pass on? Or did they draft him and he ended up not signing? I know there was some dustup about haggling over a contract with him.

    6. He was drafted in the 38th round the last time around, and was offered $200K. He won't get anywhere close to that amount as a 26th round draftee this time. He is saying that he'll sign.

      This is a good lesson for the HS kids. The odds of getting drafted in the first 6 rounds is slim. Unless you have the potential of being drafted in the first two rounds this year (maybe first three rounds), and if a team offers you $100K or more, take the money.

  5. .... Or get a college education, and then sign.