#3 Zack Wheeler. Low A 3-3, 3.99, 58.2 IP, 38 BB, 70 K's, GO/AO= 2.61.
As OGC has pointed out, players drafted in the top 10 of the first round have a much greater chance of becoming star, or impact, players than players drafted later. Actually, the odds are even better for a top 5 pick. The chances of success drop off exponentially from about pick 5 on. Unless you are the Yankees, pretty much all teams go through up and down cycles and a lot of that has to do with the draft. Teams doing well draft later and their farm systems tend to fade in the ensuing years. When a team hits a down cycle and gets a high pick or two, it is imperative that they make the most of it. Even top 5 picks are not slam dunks to become stars.
The Giants went through one of these down cycles starting in 2005 and the "reward" was a series of top 10 picks starting in 2006. Fortunately for us Giants fans, the Giants have been historically successful during this run. Tim Lincecum! Madison Bumgarner! Buster Posey! Zack Wheeler was the last of these top 10 picks taken 6'th overall in the 2009 draft. Zack Wheeler has a lot to live up to! Naturally, Giants fans might have gotten the idea that first round draft picks just waltz into the majors within 2 years of being drafted, which might be why not a few Giants fans seem to think that Wheeler's first professional season was a disappointment and his stock is down.
Wheeler's 2010 season for Low A Augusta started out with some extreme wildness in his first game. He continued to walk more batters than you'd like to see, but he really settled down quickly and then got progressively stronger as the year went along, interrupted by about a 6 week layoff for a torn fingernail. Let's take a closer look at the numbers:
K/9=10.71. This is an excellent number and indicative of superior stuff.
GO/AO= 2.61. Also an excellent number. It's not all that unusual for a young pitcher to get a lot of K's or for a young pitcher to get a lot of ground ball outs. What is unusual is for a young pitcher to do both! Remember "King Felix" Hernandez? What got everybody so excited was his ability to get both K's and GB's, a rare, deadly combination.
ERA Splits: April- 6.23. May- 3.95. July- 2.70. August- 2.66. Notice the improvement each month! I put a lot of stock in Prospects showing improvement as a season progresses. The difference between improvement over the course of the season and starting out hot with later regression cannot be overstated.
When ranking prospects, one has to consider both eventual ceiling and proximity to the majors. Obviously, a player closer to the majors is more likely reach his ceiling, whatever that ceiling is, than a player in the lower minors. I tend to weigh eventual ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. That creates a dilemma when comparing players like Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was the highest ranking prospect in the Giants system last year who has not graduated to the majors. Despite the early wildness and the injury, Wheeler did nothing to diminish his eventual ceiling as a prospect. The injury was not to his arm, and if anything his secondary stats suggest that his ceiling may be even higher than we thought when he was drafted. The question then, really, is not whether Wheeler stock has decreased, but whether Belt's stock rose so much that he surpassed Wheeler. I still think that Wheeler has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the Giants system, but Belt's ceiling is pretty sweet too, and Belt could be in the majors as soon at 2011 while Wheeler obviously has a way to go, leaving him open to injuries or regression. In my mind, it's a close call. Stay tuned!
How would you rank Zack Wheeler in relation to Brandon Belt?
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1. I will take Belt over Wheeler for a few reasons. Belt is closer to the majors and is clearly going to be an every day player who happens to have some tools the Giants generally lack outside of Posey and Huff. I agree Wheeler's ceiling is higher, but to project a Low A player all the way to the Majors (especially a pitcher), is pretty difficult.
ReplyDelete2. Looking forward to a post about Tejada. 6.5 contract + the 500k buyout on Renteria means we basically got the same deal as Uribe for a third of the commitment and I love the deal. Only a year invested, a guy with the ability to hit for a better average and just slightly less power.
Wonder if those guys in Oakland still have those Tejada Drums they could pass along... Welcome Miggy.
Just an addition to the last post. I think Tejada also can be used as a player that the Giants can point to if Sandoval doesn't shape up. He is competent at 3B, so if Sandoval thinks he's safe, he better think again. It's always a bonus when you have players who can man multiple positions, especially in the infield.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the shoutouts, DrB.
ReplyDeleteTo clarify, my draft study did denote the strong difference between various strata of draft picks. Obviously, first pick was the highest but even that wasn't over 50%. Roughly for first five picks overall, success rate in finding a good player was in the 40-45% range. From 6-20, roughly 20%. From 21-30, roughly 10%.
So playoff contending teams (which get a draft pick in the 21-30 range) has roughly about one fourth the probability of finding a good player as one of the worse teams in baseball. Way different odds, which is why teams go in that up cycle and down cycle that DrB noted, which, BTW, is the best explanation of that phenomena I've seen outside of my work, most people just don't get it.
Looked at another way, on average, any team with two top picks will whiff half the time. With Posey doing so well and looking to be a good player, it would not be unusual if Wheeler did not become a good player. Of course, the Giants nailing it with Lincecum and Bumgarner is already over the top for the 10th pick, though again, it is early (but looking great so far!).
It is these poor odds, even with the top picks, that I recommend that teams wanting to minimize the pain of rebuilding follow what I call the Phoenix Theory of Re-Building: burn it down before building it up again from the ashes. Once it is clear you are in a new era, you have to trade off everyone (much like A's and Marlin's did from championship cycle to cycle) older and good (who will be in down cycle of career when rebuild done) and basically purposefully lose for 4-6 years, depending on whether you picked up a franchise leader early or not. For example, Braves went through 6 years of excruciatingly bad seasons before trying to be good again, once they drafted Chipper Jones. Meanwhile, the prospects you got for the good players you traded off will hopefully progress and be part of the new winning core.
Betweenn Belt and Wheeler, I have to go Wheeler right now. He has the ingredients for becoming another ace pitcher, in the mode of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner.
ReplyDeleteBelt, while very good, is playing a position where very good hitting is expected. It would have been a much grayer area for me had he been another corner position player (and I would have rated him ahead had he played C-SS-CF with the defense he's known for).
And don't get me wrong, I think the world of Belt. He's doing what Pablo did coming up in 2008, so I have expectations of something between Panda's 2008 and 2009 results for Belt eventually. But that's what people expect offensively from 1B. Though combined with his great defense, that also makes him an elite prospect, in my mind, just not as good as Wheeler who can be an ace starter (which I think is more important to a franchise's future success in the playoffs).
Wheeler or Belt? Posey or Bumgarner?
Isn't it great that our debates on who is the best prospect involves two great prospects with a world of talent and potential, unlike, when, say, Damon Minor or Rich Murray or David Green was our best hope of anything from the minors.
I personally rank Belt #1 and Wheeler #2. This is mainly due to the fact that Belt is near MLB ready, and looks like he will likely be AT LEAST Huff +. Sure, Wheeler MIGHT be a stud in 3 years, but a LOT can happen in 2 or 3 years. Belt should help SF this year.
ReplyDeleteAs I have stated elsewhere, our top 2 prospects are legit top 2 prospects. Most teams would be happy to see two guys with this much talent at the top of their lists, especially after graduating guys like Posey, Bumgarner and Runzler all in the same year.
Amen to that calsnowskier!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback, everybody. I like to get other opinions when placement on a top prospects list is a close call. At the moment I have Belt penciled in at #1 with Wheeler at #2, but it could be reversed tomorrow. Stay tuned.
ReplyDeleteWheeler is a long way off and plays a position that is subject to drawbacks and injuries more so than a 1B/Corner outfielder.
ReplyDeleteBelt seems to project as a guy who can hit for average, play an above average defensive first base and barring anything drastic, should be in the majors in the next 6-9 months, if not sooner.
If the goal of a top prospect is to graduate them into a position to produce as an every day player in the majors, I think Belt is clearly your #1. If the goal is to stock-pile low ball players with tons of potential, then Wheeler it is.
The Kansas City Royals have an abundance of talent in their farm system, but have yet to really produce anybody who translates to wins on their big league roster. I'll take guys who are ready to contribute runs and wins over guys who project to contribute more runs and more wins for a team who just won the World Series.
Hope that all made sense...
Anon,
ReplyDeleteYes, it does make a lot of sense. I would just point out that KC appears to be on the verge of finally having their patience with high ceiling prospects drafted out of HS pay off in a big, big way. Their farm system is a lock to be ranked #1 by just about everybody and a lot of those prospects are now in the upper minors and knocking on the door. Hosmer, Moustakas, Myers and Montgomery, four great young prospects. It will be interesting to see if they can finally make it all work.
I think you need a mixture. The nice thing about the Giants system is you have some guys like Belt and Neal in the upper minors who are almost ready, then some guys who are maybe 2-3 years away like Peguero, Brown and Rosin and then a bunch of high ceiling guys who may eventually be stars or they might not make it at all like Tommy Joseph, RafRod, Chuckie Jones and Wheeler.
My worry with Belt is that he only has had one good season, and that came after radical tinkering by the Giants staff. He has a ton of promise, but also the potential for Sandoval type failures once the league's pitchers learn him and make the adjustments.
ReplyDeleteDr. B, love your blog. I am in Rancho and try to see SJ when they come to Rancho or S B'do which, unfortunately, is usually very late in the year. So, I think there is no chance we see Wheeler this year. Who do you think the main attractions are for the SJGs this year?
AllFrank,
ReplyDeleteI would take the opposite view from you on Belt.
The fact that he has completely reworked his stance/swing this past year and found such huge success is an indicator that he is able to adjust. Once he hits his Sophomore slump in the Majors, he should be able change his game as a counter-adjustment. He has already demonstrator the ability.
The thing about Belt, Allfrank, is that he did not just have a good season, he had an elite season, and it didn't matter which level he was at, he did basically the same, until the very end, but if I recall right he started slow and was already adjusting when the season ended.
ReplyDeleteYou just don't luck into that, I don't think, except very rarely. In addition, if he wasn't showing good skill, the prospect experts would not all be raving about his potential and talking about putting him on their Top Prospect lists for 2011, not just Giants, but overall. Keith Law thought he was the second best 1B prospect.
I have to say I have a mild concern about Belt along the lines of Allfrank, but then there are very few, if any prospects that are absolute certainties. It does seem that he's gotten enough attention amid enough skepticism and several scouting types have checked him out and the reports are all positive. He doesn't seem to have many holes in his game:
ReplyDeleteDefense: Check
speed: Above average for a first baseman
Batting average: Check
Power: Check
Plate discipline: Check.
So, with the caveat that there are no sure things, except Buster Posey, of course, Belt is about as close as you can get.
FWIW, I too have Belt at #1 and Wheeler at #2. And for the same reasons as others have previously posted.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm happy to have the debate between two really good prospects.
So where do we rank Gary Brown?