As last year's offseason started to wind down, the Giants and Aubrey Huff were like the nerd and the ugly girl at the school dance, both left with no one else wanting them. Uh, well uh, OK. Wanna dance? Then, something amazing happened. The nerd threw his pocket protector into the trash, spiked his hair and started cutting some very nifty moves out on the dance floor. The girl took off her glasses, went in the ladies room to put on some makeup and came out looking gorgeous. The new couple went on to be named Homecoming King and Queen and lived happily ever after. Well, the Homecoming thing is true, but we don't know if they lived happily ever after yet.
Even though he was the Giants 3'rd option behind Nick Johnson and Adam LaRoche, and even though their offer was insultingly low for a guy who had hit over 30 HR's in 2008 and a couple of other times in his career, Aubrey Huff embraced the Giants, their organization and their fans like they had just given him an 8 year $127 million contract. At a time when many fans were cursing the team and clamoring for the entire management team to be fired, Huff proclaimed to whoever would listen that he was thrilled to be here because for the first time in his pro career, he felt like he had a chance to be on a winning team! He certainly did his part too! A guy who had a reputation for being overweight, out of shape and a terrible fielder got into the best shape of his life, proclaimed that he was the best athlete on the team and could play virtually any position he was asked. You know what? He just might have been right!
Huff's offensive stat line was very good, .290/.385/.506 with 26 HR's. He even stole 7 bases without getting caught once! As good as that line was, Huff had put up similar lines several times before. That wasn't the surprising part. What made him so much more valuable than he had ever been was that he was suddenly a plus defender, both at first base and the OF. All that added up to a WAR(Wins Above Replacement, as calculated by fangraphs.com) of 5.7 a full 1.7 more than his previous best(in case you are looking for some perspective on what a WAR of 5.7 means, Josh Hamilton led all of baseball with 8.0 and Aubrey Huff had the 17'th highest non-pitching WAR in baseball). That's pretty close to elite status. fangraphs.com estimates that Huff's performance last year was worth $22.5 million while the Giants paid him just $3 million, the biggest bargain in baseball not named Andres Torres, but that's a whole other story.
Here's where the lived happily ever after part starts to unravel. There are a lot of teams out there who are all too aware of the Giants success. Winning the World Series has this way of drawing the wannabe's out of the woodwork. The Giants have announced that they know they are going to have to raise their payroll for next year, but with a lot of young pitching talent suddenly becoming very expensive, and with Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand's contracts still accounting for over half of many teams' payrolls, the Giants just might not be able to outbid some of the wannabe teams out there who aren't blessed with that kind of pitching talent and may have jack to outbid the Giants even at a bumped up payroll. MLB Traderumors is reporting that several teams have already made Huff offers, possibly the Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox and even the Rangers who are in the market for a guy who can play first base, left field and DH a bit.
So, what happens if the unthinkable occurs. What if the ugly girl turned gorgeous decides to run off with the dude who shows up with the cool motorcycle and ride off into the sunset leaving the still somewhat nerdy guy standing with his hands in his pockets? Well, all is not lost! Mind you, the Giants are highly, highly unlikely to replace Aubrey Huff's 5.7 WAR, but remember, it is also highly, highly unlikely that Aubrey Huff repeats his 5.7 WAR! Sure, at 33 years old, it's possible that he's kicked it into another gear, but it's much more likely that he just had a career year. After all, he's averaged just a little over 2 WAR/season over his career and the 5.7 exceeded his previous high by almost 2! So, what are the options if the unthinkable does happen?
In House Options:
The Giants have a pretty interesting prospect who can play both first base and corner OF, just like Aubrey Huff named Brandon Belt who is starting to generate a lot of national buzz and may just be ready to play MLB by next season. While not exactly dismantling the team, finally winning the ring may give the Giants enough cover with their fan base to "go young" and bring along a position player or two.
Then there is Travis Ishikawa who will be entering his age 27 season, the beginning of most player's prime years. Travis is a stellar defensive first baseman who might just be poised for a breakout season. If he isn't, Belt might well be ready by the time it's obvious it isn't going to happen for Travis.
Let's not forget about Pablo Sandoval, who might be more likely to rebound at the plate if he is playing first base than 3'rd. Even in the terrible season he had last year, Pablo still showed flashes of what he is capable of pounding long drives into the gaps and over the wall at AT&T Park. Hopefully he gets himself in better shape over the winter and can contribute at first or third base in a big way next year.
Free Agents:
I'm assuming that if the Giants can't compete in the Aubrey Huff sweepstakes, they aren't going to get Paul Konerko, Victor Martinez or Adam Dunn either. Here's an idea! Adam LaRoche recently had his option declined by the Arizona Diamondbacks and is a free agent. LaRoche did hit 25 HR's with 100 RBI's for the D'Backs last year. He may just be kicking himself for turning up his nose at last year's Giants offer and be willing to try the Huff route with them if he's the odd man out when the Hot Stove starts to die down. LaRoche only plays first base, which limits his value, and he doesn't hit for as high a BA or OBP as Huff at his best, but his career has been more stable and he can be a very productive bat in the middle of a lineup. Carlos Pena, a guy who can hit HR's in bunches, may find his value limited by his characteristically low batting averages. Others who might have a chance to be next year's Aubrey Huff? How about Troy Glaus, Xavier Nady or Lyle Overbay?
Trades: It's pretty unlikely that the Giants are going to get a low cost, name first baseman without having to give up too much in trade, I'm talking about a Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain who would leave a gaping hole in the Giants greatest strength if either were traded. Don't expect Prince Fielder or AGone to be coming to SF in a blockbuster trade! Here's an idea that may be flying under the radar: The Angels seem to have soured on Mike Napoli. Napoli is a guy who is capable of hitting 25-30 HR's and could play first base while occasionally spelling Buster Posey behind the plate. The Angels need to bolster their bullpen, so a reliever and a prospect might be all it would take to land a Napoli. I'm sure there are other possibilties out there, but that's all I can think of tonight. Time to get to bed!
Do you think Aubrey Huff will be re-signed?
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huff is no dummy...if someone out there is willing to give him a 3 year at 10 mil per...he is gonna grab it
ReplyDeleteman has a family...and knows that shelf life in the game is short
im sure the giants wont go above 7-8 for 2 with a club option...especially with belt in the wings
no matter what sabean says, the contracts to zito and rowand do and will affect the team's ability to resign guys like huff and uribe and to be agressive in the fa market
so if im sabean, my first move is to look to unload rowand...if they can dump a half of his salary, it will really help
we are stuck with zito....the games most expensive 5th man
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteAre you privy to Bowtie's inner circle so you know what the payroll is going to be? How do you know Bowtie and ownership haven't already written off those two contracts and are setting payroll as if they didn't exist? Sabean has already said payroll is going to increase significantly in order to keep the young core intact as well as get the arbitration eligibles signed.
Just forget about Zito and Rowand for a few seconds, as well as your hatred of Brian Sabean. With Brandon Belt in the organization, or even without him, would you want to see the Giants sign Huff to a 3 year/$30 Million contract?
I thought it was a slamdunk before, but given his public stance of needing to watch out for his children (he's already made $38M in his career so far, so I think his children are pretty much covered right now, even if he and his wife banged out a new kid every year for the next 5 years), I think he'll be gone if there is any much higher offer.
ReplyDeleteAnd I don't blame him for that, just why did he have to play the child card? Just say the usual things, it's a business, got to watch out for myself, don't have many years left as valuable free agent.
Still, I don't see how any team would want to pay more than $7M per season for him, and for more than 2 seasons. Only the Orioles were willing before ($8M per for 2) and he was 3 years younger and presumably in his prime then. He'll be entering his mid-30's with this contract. He has hit well in two of last three seasons, and got more respect for his defensive skills and leadership abilities, but there is still his 2009 season and he's a bit out there for most other cities (appearing on a show with strippers; wearing a thong on his head in the celebration parade; his Zoolander bit at ceremony).
But I'm afraid some team will be desperate enough to overlook all those, see how the Giants went from 2009 to 2010, and conclude that Huff was a key success factor in that, and give him $9-10M for 2-3 seasons. Not sure which team would do that (maybe if I go through each team and eliminate candidates I can feel better), but just fear that.
But while I would love to have Huff back, luckily the Giants are covered at 1B.
I think Ishikawa can handle 1B in 2011 adequately enough. He hit well enough as the starting 1B in 2009 once he got out of the "deer in the headlight" phase. He had a high 700 OPS and while that is not as good as Huff's 2010, I don't think we need that to win with what we have.
Meanwhile, that allows Belt to complete at least half a season of AAA and allow the Giants to further evaluate his hitting. But I think he'll be ready to go sometime in 2011 and that he and Ishikawa would be battling for starting 1B (along with Huff, even if he signs with us). Belt could end up the starting 1B, he's great defensively (Snow said best glove in system) and if he is ready offensively, the Giants did not appear to shy away from that; Huff would play OF in that case, if he is signed.
I don't think there is any need to sign LaRoche, particularly if that will cost us a draft pick, we have enough internal options to win without him, unless he wants a similar contract to Huff ($3M), then I might consider it.
doc,
ReplyDeletehow much over the 100 mil mark can the team go?
that is the question
and no, i would not sign huff for 3 at 10
i would sign him for 2 at 8 with an option and a bunch of incentives...the incentives could drive it up to 10-11
and im only basing my thoughts on what happened this season...with sabean doing most of his work at dumpster diving
seems to me that bowtie layed down the law...no more huge contracts to avg players
and come on doc, you have to admit that the rowand and zito contracts hurt...and had it not been for his ws play, the contract to renteria would also have been a bust....all three were a huge chunk of this season's payroll
There are a lot of 1B/DH types on the market, so that might hold down Huff's value. Texas would seem to be a nice fit. They may remember that bomb he hit off poor Tommy Hunter! Also, the Jays, Rays, and a couple more AL teams seem to be fits. I would think Huff Daddy would be a nice backup plan for teams interested in VMart. His versatility gives him a leg up on the other 1B/DH types.
ReplyDeleteBacci,
ReplyDeleteYes, of course the Zito and Rowand contracts hurt, but that's water way under the bridge, spilt milk, etc. Sabes just proved he can build a winner working around it and recently announced that payroll will go up to keep the young core intact as well as sign the arbitration eligibles. I just don't think there is anything to be gained by dwelling on the Zito/Rowand contracts any more. They are done, history, money already spent. Gotta move on.
I don't know if Sabes can pull it off every year, he probably can't, but by winning it all for the first time in SF Giants history, I think he's earned the right to see this through to the other side of the Zito/Rowand contracts.
I agree that Bowtie laid down the law, but the guy who got it laid down to was Magowan, not Sabean. I think Sabean is actually happy he isn't being pressured to sign big name FA's like he was under Magowan.