Saturday, November 27, 2010

Hot Stove Update: Victor Martinez, Jon Garland

A little late on this one. Victor Martinez signed a 4 year/$50 M contract with the Detroit Tigers. As a full time catcher, Victor Martinez would be an elite player. As it is, Detroit is expecting him to the the primary DH, back-up first baseman and catch 2-3 times/week. Martinez will likely be a full time DH by the time the contract is done. Expect his numbers to suffer a bit playing in Detroit. I was thinking Martinez and Posey might make a nice catcher/first base tandem, but I like the deal the Giants got with Aubry Huff a lot better.

The Dodgers signed Jon Garland to a 1 year/$5 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for 2012. Garland is an innings eating workhorse who thrives in the west coast ballparks. With this signing, Ned Colletti has the Dodgers rotation set for 2011 and it's a good one: Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Lilly and Garland. Billz and Kershaw are potential aces who haven't quite gotten there yet. Kuroda is a strong #3 who has missed a few starts in his tenure with the Dodgers, but can be lights out when fully healthy. Lilly is getting by on junk at this point. You have to think that a flyball pitcher whose FB tops out at 86 MPH is living on borrowed time. 3 years/$33 M is a might rich contract for that, but he may be a solid #4 for at least 1 more season.

Colletti still hasn't addressed the bullpen, but the rotation should get the Dodgers deep into the vast majority of games, helping to mask the weak bullpen. Colletti also has major issues in the lineup that need to be addressed. Still, the rotation alone will make the Dodgers a formidable opponent in 2011.

13 comments:

  1. Slightly off topic, but,

    I read where the Dodgers are consider non-tendering Russell Martin because of his decline in production. The decline is being attributed to the fact that he caught more innings than any other catcher over the last few years. If true, shouldn't the Giants be more aggressive in finding a backup catcher who can split time with Posey? Whiteside disappearance in the post season says something about the Giants' confidence in him.

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  2. I am surprised that San Diego did not try harder to retain Garland at that price...

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  3. My own opinion is that the Giants need to make upgrading the backup catcher position a priority.

    Garland, at that price, is a bargain.

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  4. Sandoval could end up the backup catcher as well as backup firstbaseman and thirdbaseman.

    I am getting the feeling the Giants may sign both Uribe and Tejada moving Sandoval to starting 1B until Belt is ready.

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  5. Rainman,

    I still don't understand the fascination with moving Sandoval to 1B. Seems to me that he's not going to be in MLB next year at all unless he greatly improves his conditioning. But if he does (knock on wood), he's also shown that he can be at least an MLB-average third baseman. If he doesn't, he also isn't likely hit any better than 2010, which is not tolerable at 1B. What gives?

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  6. the bums rotation doesnt scare me....and because ned will not be able to put together a good pen, they are gonna fade come august...sad that a team that prided itself in developing pitching talent, now has 3 fa's out of the 5 starters

    friars are in trouble...still cash poor

    if black can keep them competitive through the summer, he will deserve a second moy award

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  7. The Choking Dog's starting 5 is decent, but none of them have yet to show they can step it up in high pressure situations, something we have already seen from Lincecum, Cain, and to some degree Bumgarner.

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  8. Jim.

    In the senerio I outlined starting Sandoval at 1B would just be a place holder until Belt is ready to take over. The ultimate position for the Panda in this senerio would be as the backup Catcher (replacing Whiteside) and also a backup to both corner infield spots.

    We all hope Pablo can get in shape and increase his performance level beyond what he provided in 2010. But the senerio I am outlining is planning for the possibility that he can not.

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  9. I tend to believe that Pablo will either be the starting 3B for the Giants or back in the minors next year.

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  10. I'm with DrB on Pablo.

    I seriously doubt the Giants would block Sandoval from starting by signing Uribe to play 3B, besides which, Uribe doesn't hit well enough to start at 3B IMO. I love Juan, but either he's starting SS or super-utility, that is where he adds value to any team.

    Sandoval hits too well (ideally) to be the second choice option, if anything, the Giants will sign someone just in case Pablo don't come through. I think the best option right now would be to move Franchez there if necessary and start Burriss or DeRosa at 2B. He played great defense at 3B when starting there.

    But I think Sandoval will get into good enough shape (not ideal shape, though) that the Giants will be forced to keep his bat in the lineup. And yes, I say forced, I don't think his bat was gone in 2010, it was his concentration.

    I saw someone say elsewhere that most go to work to escape personal problems, so he don't believe that as an excuse. And I would agree with that normally, I did the same too. But if it was work that caused the problem (Pablo's infidelity) in the first place, then playing would just be a constant reminder. And most people cannot hide behind work when a parent nearly dies. And really, again, that was work related in that his mom would have been safely in Venezuela if she wasn't here because of Pablo's baseball career.

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  11. Yeah, the Dogs' rotation is looking pretty good. To the point above, yes, ironic that BA has praised LA's pitching crop over recent past, particularly over the Giants, yet our rotation is better AND more homegrown for most part right now and look to be for years.

    Though I would give LA credit for having pretty good bullpens the prior past few years. Haven't looked at their 2010 stats, but it sounds like, from the comments, that it wasn't good. But Colletti at least did pick up from Sabean that having a good bullpen is a key ingredient of winning team.

    I'm a bit disappointed that the Dodger Divorce went through without ruining their finances, like it did for SD when their owner got a divorce. But they seem to be spending like they did before, plus look like they are trying to drive up Giant's costs by pushing for Huff and now Uribe. Probably still mad because Sabean let Schmidt go to LA for the big bucks!

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  12. About Posey, the Giants are already thinking that way, that's how he started playing 1B in the first place. They are going to play him at 1B to keep bat in lineup when not catching, and they wouldn't do that if they were only going to rest him a handful of games, you do that if you plan on a significant amount of sitting.

    About Whiteside "disappearance" in playoffs, that is because it's the playoffs, each game is do or die, you go with your best guns then, period. Whiteside (or whoever is the backup catcher) will be catching regularly in 2011, I believe. The Giants know what they got in Posey, heck, manager is former catcher, they know how the position beats on the player.

    Because of that, I agree with DrB, upgrade at backup C would be nice, though perhaps if Pablo was the regular backup catcher, maybe he would feel the need to keep himself in shape? Just a thought...

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  13. To be frank, most pitchers love pitching in West Coast parks, particularly LA and SD, two of the most extreme pitcher's parks in the majors.

    That's why certain pitchers tend to end up back in LA, to get a market boost of sub-ERA to look great and push up their price (Jeff Weaver, Chan Ho Park, now Garland), they aren't really that great major leaguer starters but appear to be when they spend half their season pitching in LA or SD.

    Garland isn't that good but he is as their 5th starter. Not as good as Bumgarner, obviously, but he'll look good as their 5th starter, for sure.

    I was more scared by the Ted Lilly signing, he has been a good pitcher for a number of years now, though at 35 in 2011, headed into deeper waters when careers suddenly sink (hello Jason Schmidt). He did miss a number of starts in 2009, but that was probably because he was worked over in Chicago in 2007 and 2008. However, he has stunk in the post-season, so that is good.

    But the park is no magic pill either, that works every time, else Ely wouldn't have stunk so badly there in 2010, Jeff Weaver too, for once.

    But that top four of Kershaw, Billz, Kuroda, and Lilly is pretty good. Luckily, despite Kemp and Ethier, their offense doesn't look that great, and they should be running out of money soon and so can't add a great bat, which means that they might not get out of the 80's in wins, and they actually won more games than Pythag would predict, so they are battling up-hill as well (though I must add the Giants were likewise battling up-hill in 2010 vs. 2009 too).

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