Fantasy Impact: Outfield

On the surface, it might seem like there is an abundance of outfielders for fantasy teams to choose from, and there are a lot. You have to remember, though, that while other positions are just one per team, there are 3 OF slots to fill per team. Once you get beyond about 10 teams/league, it can get very dicey trying to fill that last OF position with someone who won't hurt you. Rather than list the top 50 or so OF's here, I'm going to talk about some of the things you look for in your evaluations.

There are certain benchmarks I look for in in each of the offensive categories that make that player a plus in each given category:

BA- .300
Runs- 90
HR- 20
RBI's- 90
SB's- 20

20 HR/20 SB or 20/20 seems to be the holy grail in a lot of fantasy websites and magazines. I prefer to start with BA and work from that, the reason being that BA is the only Average Stat as opposed to a Counting Stat. One low BA can drag down your entire team in that category while a player who hits 0 HR's but steals 40 bases doesn't hurt lower the HR totals of your other players. Of course, the ideal OF would be one who gives you plus production at all 5 categories. Let's see if any such players exist: I found just one, Ryan Braun- .320/113/32/114/20.

There were just 3 others who were very close:

Shin-Soo Choo- .300/87/20/86/20
Justin Upton- .300/84/26/86/20
Matt Kemp- .297/97/26/101/34

What if you lower your benchmarks to .280/80/15/80/15? You only get one additional player:

Bobby Abreu- .293/96/18/103/30

What about .270/70/10/70/10?

Torii Hunter- .299/74/22/90/18
Matt Holliday- .313/94/24/109/14
Franklin Gutierrez- .283/85/18/70/16
Johnny Damon- .282/107/18/70/12
Hunter Pence- .282/76/25/72/14
Adam Jones- .277/83/19/70/10


So if you stretch it, there are just 11 OF's who will help you in all 5 categories, or at least not hurt you. Beyond that, you have to start mixing and matching categories. For instance, you might want to try for a couple of 4 category OF's at .270/80/20/80 threshold and ignore SB's then grab a pure speed guy for the 3'rd OF slot. Let's see what we can find here among players not previously named:

Brad Hawpe- .285/82/23/86
Michael Cuddyer-.276/93/32/94
Andre Ethier- .272/92/31/106
Raul Ibanez- .272/93/34/93

If you are willing to go down the a .260 BA, you can pick up:

Jayson Werth- .268/98/36/99
Jason Bay- .267/103/36/119
Adam Dunn- .267/81/38/105

But now you are really getting into 3 category players, which leave us with just 18 guys you really want on your team so far. Now let's add in a few SB studs. Again, you don't want to hurt yourself too much in BA, so let's set just two benchmarks at .270 and 20 SB's to add to our list above:

Ichiro- .352/88/11/46/26
Denard Span- .311/97/8/68/23
Juan Pierre- .308/57/0/31/30 in 380 AB's. He should do better in the counting stats with 500+ AB's with CWS.
Nyjer Morgan- .307/74/3/39/42 in 469 AB's.
Carl Crawford- .305/96/15/68/60.
Rajai Davis- .305/65/3/48/41 in 390 AB's. If he keeps performing well, he should get 500+ AB's this year, or he could have a severe regression.
Scott Podsednik- .304/75/7/48/30
Jacoby Ellsbury- .301/94/8/60/70
Shane Victorino- .292/102/10/62/25
Andrew McCutchen- .286/74/12/54/22 in 433 AB's. Breakout alert!
Michael Bourn- .285/97/3/35/61 Regression alert!
Brett Gardner- .270/48/3/23/26 in 248 AB's. Will he get more AB's this year?

This adds another 12 players who can help you with steals but several of these had spotty playing time and really don't help you in the power categories and we're still just now getting to 30 OF's who you might really want on your team for one reason or another. Let's add in a few miscellaneous 3 category power guys:

Nick Markakis- .293/94/18/101/6 A fairly unique player who is helped by playing every day and by hitting a ton of doubles.
Carlos Lee- .300/65/26/102/5 A steady source of BA, HR, RBI's. May be starting on the dowward slope of his career trajectory.
Juan Rivera- .287/72/25/88/0. Good power source if he can stay healthy.
JD Drew- .279/84/24/68/2 in 452 AB's. Health is a big issue here. It's been so long since he played a full season, you have to project DL time.
Cody Ross- .270/73/24/90/5

That gets us to 35 OF's who you might really want on your team. Add in a few comeback candidates like Beltran, Manny, Grady Sizemore and you have enough to fill up a 10 team league, but even a 12 team league starts getting very thin at the end of the draft.

Take home messages:

1. Don't wait too long to draft OF's.
2. Look for a breakout or comeback candidate or two later in the draft to fill your 3'rd OF position.
3. Watch the waiver wire closely once the season starts.