Hot Stove Update: Timmy Signs!

That giant sucking sound you heard earlier to day was Giants fans everywhere taking a deep breath and a sigh of relief at the news of Tim Lincecum and the Giants avoiding the dreaded arbitration hearing. The best part is we don't have to wonder about next offseason. Ideally, it would have been a 3 year contract so the Giants would have him locked up until 1 year left before FA when they could better judge whether to commit to the type of enormous long term contract it will probably take to keep Timmy for the majority of his career but the deal the Giants got was not bad, not bad at all.

While this agreement is win-win for both sides, it was clearly a much bigger win for the Giants management who proved to be extremely shrewd negotiators in this process. I tend to see Bill Neukom's fingerprints all over this one. He wasn't a corporate attorney for in Silicon Valley for nothing, he wasn't!

Let's take a look at how this played out. The contract is for 2 years for a total of $23 M, $8 M for 2010, $13 M for 2011 with a $2 M bonus over the 2 years.

The Giants offer for 1 year was $8 M. Clear win for the Giants.

Assuming the Giants won their case and the arbitrator ruled for the $8 M, if Tim pitched up to the standards of his last two seasons, he would be in line for at least a $5 M raise for 2011 to $13 M. If Tim were to have won his case, he might well be in line for at least the same raise next year to $18 M. Again, tacking on the second year at $13 M protects the Giants at least as much as it protects Tim. The only way it's a negative for the Giants is if he blows out his arm or suffers a severe regression in performance for some other reason. Clear win for the Giants.

The $2 M bonus is a small concession by the Giants, but even there, they were able to spread it out over the two years.

In summary, the Giants were able to lock in their best case scenario for both this year and next year, barring injury.

Tim ended up with a 1 year insurance policy and a $2 M bonus.

Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of this is why, if they were going to essentially capitulate, Tim's camp didn't take the 3 year $37 M offer which would have guaranteed him $14 M more. As it stands, they passed up the extra $14 M for a chance to eek out a possible extra $3 or 4 M while risking it all to a possible future injury. Giants management is likely breathing a big sigh of relief that Timmy didn't take the 3 year offer!