Hot Stove Update: Timmy vs Giants

There's something about the possibility of setting a new record, any record, that gets people's juices flowing. Tim Lincecum's arbitration hearing is still at least a week away, and already the blogosphere is spinning into orbit over it. Perhaps the most salient example of this is Andy Baggerly's recent blogpost theorizing that the Giants strategy is tied into their turf battle with the Oakland A's in San Jose. You can count on the hyperbole building to a frenzied crescendo as the date approaches.

Giants fans' anxiety seems to revolve around a couple of fears:

1. TImmy is going to be too expensive to keep long term.

2. The arbitration process itself may damage their longterm relationship with Timmy and make him not want to stay with the team.

3. The Giants offer is lowball and just one more miscalculation by an incompetent management team.


While the prospect of a record setting arbitration award is certainly exciting and entertaining, the actual consequences may not be as profound as the hype would make it seem. Here are some of my thoughts on the process, in no particular order:

1. I believe this case will be decided by the arbitrator rather than by a pre-hearing compromise because both sides think they can win. Timmy obviously has a strong case based on performance. The Giants have a much stronger case than it would appear on the surface because of arbitration precedence.

2. Timmy will play for the Giants in 2010 no matter which way the arbitrator rules. Whether he is paid $8 M or $13 M, if he pitches as well as he did that last two years, he will be a bargain.

3. Timmy is not eligible for free agency for 4 more seasons, so there is no urgency to signing him to a long term contract. The only potential benefit for the Giants to sign him long term is if they could buy the first year or two of free agency at a discount in return for the safety of a long term contract. Timmy's camp has signals that they are not inclined to agree to that. Even if the Giants could pry a small hometown discount out of Timmy, they might still not want a longterm deal just yet. The main reason why teams offer more than a 3 year contract to any pitcher is not that they are afraid of losing them after 3 years, but that they won't be able to sign them at all without the longer contract. The Giants are already assured of having Timmy for more than 3 years if they still want him.

4. The Giants can win this thing, and they can do it without "going negative." The Giants will not win, and will probably not try to win by arguing against Tim's performance. Tim's case, from a performance standpoint is overwhelming. The Giants will focus their case on arbitration precedent.

a. The previous record award is $10 M given to an MVP.

b. Star hitters generally command higher salaries than star pitchers.

c. Average salaries are down over the last two years due to the economy.

Since the Giants offer is $1 M closer to the prior record than Tim's request, and since arbitrators in recent years have tended to side with management, the Giants have at least an even chance of winning.

No matter who wins, Timmy will pitch for the Giants in 2010, likely at a bargain price. No matter the outcome, Timmy will likely pitch for the Giants for the next 4 years. No bridges will be burned.

It is way too soon for the Giants to sign Timmy to the type of long term deal it will take to get him to agree. Injuries and other causes of decreased performance are a constant threat to pitchers. The Giants have 3 more seasons to see if Tim remains healthy and sustains his phenomenal performance. The time to go for a long term deal, if they want one, is the offseason prior to his walk year. They will know more about whether current prospects like Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner are stars in their own right. They will be in a better position to know whether they need to risk a 6 or 7 year contract on Timmy or if they might be better off to do a Billy Beane style star for prospects trade.