7:57 PM: This will be a wrap for this live blog of the draft. Guys on BA's podcast like Trevor Cohen's tools and think he could even develop a little power with maturity and development. I would think the Giants can save some pool money with both these picks so will look for them to cobble enough together to take a lottery pick high schooler sometime tomorrow.
I'll probably wait until tomorrow evening to summarize the Day 2 picks.
7:12 PM: Giants are up. Giants select Trevor Cohen College OF. Welp, Buster said it was going to be a scouting draft. Cohen is not on MLB Pipeline's top 250 draft prospects. A mystery pick! Will have to do some research.
6:37 PM: Checking in to respond to a couple of comments. Padres take Kruz Schoolcraft at #5. Padres have a long history of swinging for the fences in their drafts and it's paid off for them. I feel like this pick vindicates my enthusiasm for Schoolcraft on some level. I will follow his pro career with interest. I have to say the Kilen pick feels like a draft for need at the MLB level. 3B and SS are filled for the next 5-6 years but the Giants are scuffling at 2B so they go out and get a college 2B who can move fast but maybe with limited ceiling. Fingers crossed for a good player at #85.
4:22: Gonna sign off for awhile. Will check back later for the Giants third round pick at #85 overall.
4:18: Gavin Kilen College SS. DOB: 3/28/2004. B-L, T-R. 5' 11", 187 lbs. Best tool is Hit. Played more 2B after transfer from Louisville to Tennessee. Has a very Joe Panik feel to him. More hit tool than power. Likes to swing early in count. Probably a 2B in the pros.
4:15 PM: Here we go......Gavin Kilen College SS. May not stick at SS but the bat seems to be real.
4:12 PM: Witherspoon or a college bat is looking better for the Giants....unless they want to pop Schoolcraft.....
4:11 PM: Gavin Fien HS SS to the Rangers. Giants are up.
4:08 PM: Another tough loss for the Giants.
4:06 PM: Jamie Arnold College LHP pretty easy pick for the A's at #11.
4:01 PM: The HS SS's are flying off the board. Billy Carlson, ++ fielder, questionable bat, to the ChiSox at #10. Giants are going to have a choice out of excellent prospects: Schoolcraft, Arnold, Witherspoon, Ike Irish, Summerhill all still on the board.
3:59 PM: Game slipping away from the Giants.....
3:55 PM: I didn't see Steele Hall HS SS to the Reds(#9) coming. Jamie Arnold College LHP and Kyson Witherspoon College RHP still on the board as are several college bats. Hall's big tools are catch and run. One of the youngest and fastest players in the draft.
3:50 PM: JoJo Parker HS SS, a player who was mocked to the Giants by several analysts goes to the BJ's at #8. Seemed to catch helium late in the cycle. Possibly best bat of the HS SS's.
3:45: Marlins take the top college position player in the draft, Aiva Arquette SS at #7.
3:39: Pirates know something about drafting and developing HS pitchers. They are ecstatic to have Seth Hernandez HS RHP fall into their laps. IMO, very possibly the best player in the entire draft.
3:34 PM: Cardinals take Liam Doyle College LHP. They take the big fastball and size over the advanced pitch mix of Jamie Arnold. How far will Seth Hernandez drop? 13?
3:30 PM: ....and Luis Matos ties it up in the 9'th inning!!!!
3:28 PM: And Ethan Holliday HS SS goes to his dad's old team. Massive power potential and Coors Field something to dream on.
3:23 PM: And the drop for Seth Hernandez begins. Mariners can't believe Kade Anderson College LHP falls into their laps. Pretty much a complete pitcher now. Could be pitching in the majors by this time next season. Harold Reynolds makes the point that the first two picks were almost certainly driven by under slot deals.
3:17 PM: Whoa! As expected, the Angels go for the fast-moving college pitcher but it's not Kade Anderson. Tyler Bremner College RHP from UCSB has had a roller coaster ride. He fell down draft boards early in the college season but seemed to regain velocity and his slider command later in the season and caught late helium. Some mocks had him at #13 to the Giants.
3:12 PM: Wow! Nationals go with their Best Player Available and it's not Ethan Holliday or Seth Hernandez, but..... Eli Willits HS SS might be more willing to accept a below-slot bonus. Willits was always ranked in the top 10 but he caught additional helium late in the cycle. Willits seems like more well-rounded prospect than Holliday but he doesn't have anything close to Holliday's immense power potential.
3:04 PM: Commissioner's Opening Remarks. Some intrigue around the #1 pick. Why was Mike Rizzo fired just 1 week before the draft? That seems more than a coincidence, no? I'll guess Rizzo insisted on taking one of the two best players in the draft, Ethan Holliday SS or Seth Hernandez RHP and ownership wants to accelerate the rebuild with a fast-moving college pitcher which would point to Kade Anderson LHP. But that's pure speculation adding 2+2 and getting 5.
2:38 PM: So who might the Giants be looking to draft at #13? I've mostly reconciled myself that it's not going to be Kruz Schoolcraft HS LHP although the BA podcast yesterday had a rumor that the A's showed interest at #11 which is the first hint of any buzz on him the whole cycle.
MLP Pipeline has Kyson Witherspoon College RHP falling to the Giants but other mock drafts have him going higher.
Someone asked about Caden Bodine College C. I kind of dismissed him as a reach at #13 but too good to drop to round 3. Now I am not so sure. Bodine is a serious college hitter in a draft that his thin for that demographic and he plays a good enough defensive C to play the position at the MLB level. He's a switch-hitter to boot. He has a classic catcher's build with a thick, heavy lower half. As a probably HOF catcher himself, I am sure Buster Posey has an added interest in the position. Does he prioritize it enough to reach for one he really likes? Is he a tougher evaluator of catchers than other POBO's?
2:16 PM: Several factors impacting the Giants draft:
It's a little frustrating that they had the 9'th worst record in the draft the dropped to #13 due to teams jumping over them in the lottery. Giants have yet to move up in any draft lottery. Hopefully their luck turns next year? But we hope they do well enough to not be in the lottery so we can't win.
Giants lost their 2'nd and 5'th round picks due to signing Willy Adames SS. I would rather have Willy Adames than whoever they might get with those two players but they also lose the ability to spend the bonus money in those slots which limits how much they can go overslot with the first pick or use the first pick to allocate extra slot money to lower picks.
How will changes in Giants management impact their draft decisions? Buster has said he wants the Giants draft to be more scout oriented, but nobody knows exactly what that means. Zach Minasian is now the GM and his bro has effectively used a strategy of drafting polished college players then rushing them to the majors. Is Zach inclined to advocate for that approach with the Giants?
2:09 PM: Back at ya. I've got 3 windows open on my computer screen: Gameday, MLB.com predraft broadcast and the blog. How is everybody feeling about the draft? Do we even care or are we focused on the Giants-Dodgers game? Ray is pitching well but as we have seen, just not quite well enough to overcome the lack of hitting. A couple of walks in the fourth cost him and then a HR to one of the Dodgers weaker hitters. Ugh!
11:09 AM: I'm going to try something different here and see if I can live-blog the draft. I will use this post and add new comments at the top rather than bottom. Use the comments section to submit draft-related questions or comments. I will plan to log back in somewhere around 2-2:30 PM to respond here in the text and post my own thoughts on the draft. Thanks to everybody for reading and commenting which makes When the Giants Come To Town the greatest of the Giants-oriented blogs.
Ooops, crashed mid thought…
ReplyDeleteI am not sure I understand that one. We have Walker, Ahuna and some pretty high profile international signings. With Harrison gone and Tibbs with him, seems like some other picks you mentioned made more sense. Prospects are prospects but seems like we could have used help somewhere else.
It sure feels like a draft for need at the MLB level. 3B and SS are filled for the next 5-6 years. They are scuffling to put someone at 2B. So they draft a college 2B who can move fast to the MLB level.
DeleteNot thrilled to see Schoolcraft go to San Diego.
ReplyDeleteAgree. Padres historically draft for ceiling and it has served them well. I feel like them taking Schoolcraft is a vindication of my enthusiasm for him on some level.
DeletePart of my Gavin Kilen, Grok response: “ Scouting reports rank him around the 14-21 range among draft prospects, highlighting his line-drive oriented bat and potential for above-average offensive production, though his power is fringy and he’s not a burner on the bases (average speed). The Giants seem to value his pure hitting ability and high ceiling as a contact-oriented infielder, and early reactions from analysts note that he’s a solid, toolsy pick who could move quickly through the minors if his defense solidifies at second base.”
ReplyDeleteMLB crew was comping him to Gavin Lux which isn't all that much different than Joe Panik.
DeleteI saw a comparison to Joe Panik as well!
DeleteMaybe under slot picks to save their limited draft pool $ for draftees who drop on day 2…we can only hope!
ReplyDeleteThat's what it looks like to me.
DeleteGrok 4 tidbit on Trevor Cohen - “Overall in college, he slashed .339/.404/.452 with 4 HR, 100 RBIs, 39 SB, and only 62 strikeouts across 163 games, demonstrating elite plate discipline (his 2025 chase rate and whiff rate were among the lowest in the Big Ten) and base-running acumen.
ReplyDeleteScouting-wise, Cohen profiles as a toolsy outfielder with above-average speed (evident in his stolen base totals and ability to cover ground in center), a compact lefty swing that prioritizes line-drive contact over raw power, and a high baseball IQ.
His arm is average, but his routes and instincts make him a potential plus defender in center or a corner outfield spot. Strengths include his bat-to-ball skills, ability to hit to all fields, and speed that could translate to 20+ steals annually in the pros.”
We could use more hitters that can hit!
Underwhelming.
ReplyDeleteMike Holmes was hired by Zahidi as head of scouting in 2019 and produced some real busts.
...and some successes.
DeleteLooking over the stats for all the hitters drafted during the Zaidi era and one thing that stands out is that very few of them have K rates less than 25% in the minors. That does not bode well for their contact ability in the majors, something we have already seen with the hitters who have graduated to MLB. Perhaps the first two picks of the Posey era reflect a shift in focus and scouting?
ReplyDeleteGIven some of Buster's comments about getting back to keeping the line moving and playing to the home ballpark, I think the apparent shift from 3 true outcomes to contact is notable.
DeleteThanks for bloging the draft Doc. I have no problem with the Gavin Killan pick. Mock drafts had him drafted somewhere in the mid 1st round. He played for a major Div 1 program Tennessee. He seems like a safe pick, nothing wrong with that. I'm seen a comp to Jeff McNeil, pretty good Mets 2nd baseman. Haven't seen much about their other pick Trevor Cohen. Look forward to tomorrow's 2nd draft day. Would be more interesting if MLB allowed teams to trade draft picks
ReplyDeleteBrian Sabean called Michael Holmes a rising star in the industry before he left. As for their 1st round busts, who knows the reasons as to what was behind those picks being busts.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how Michael Holmes drafts pan out with a POBO who actually listens to his scouts.....and has given him more scouts to work with.
DeleteThe front office recently hired about a half dozen scouts who seem more well versed in analytics as well as the traditional eye tests. As, DrB says, the jury is out and we shall see. With the first two picks, it seems that the front office values contact but I'm thinking that these are high floor-low ceiling picks.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that their picks in rounds 1 and 3 are both underslot candidates and there are a lot of highly rated HS overslot candidates in round 4, so I would wager that’s their strategy. Maybe the big OF out of De La Salle or any of 3-4 pitchers.
ReplyDeleteAnother under slot in round four, and the HS players remain on the board. Collecting capital?
DeleteJust a guess but watch Round 11.
DeleteCould be. Just finished 10 and Blair and most of the HS pitchers I was looking at in 4 are all still there, and a lot of underslot picks. Hey, and Appenzeller looks kind of like a poor man's Schoolcraft.
DeleteLooks like Reid Worley RHP, I think in Round 9 is the get. He's got a unique grip and is a spin rate stud with something like 3200 RPM on his slider. That's on top of a 93 MPH fastball. I'll try to do some more digging but google search his name and slider and you'll find some interesting stuff.
DeleteCould well be, and they'll need enough to keep him from Kennesaw State. Not usual to see a HS kid with that kind of slider, is it?
DeleteAlso check out Damien Bravo in the 15th, a bit of an overslot, even if from college. Pipeline rated him 186 and graded him Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40.
Appears to be a solid line-drive hitter. I'm getting the impression that Buster is sick of all the strikeouts and really doesn't like the three true outcomes.
Grok on Reid Worley Slider - Part 1
Delete“Spin Rate
Worley’s slider consistently achieves elite spin rates in the 3,000-3,300 RPM range, with peaks up to 3,259 RPM recorded during showcases and the 2025 MLB Draft Combine. This places it among the highest-spinning breaking balls in the 2025 high school class, contributing to its sharp, late bite and making it a true “wipeout” pitch. For context, MLB average slider spin is around 2,400-2,600 RPM, so Worley’s ability to generate this level of rotation—often described as “ripping it off with confidence”—is a separator that scouts project could translate well to higher levels.
Velocity
The slider typically sits in the low-to-mid 80s, with a velocity range of 78-84 mph across various reports. More recent outings show it averaging 82-83 mph, with the ability to add or subtract velocity for different shapes. This velo pairs well with his fastball (gap of about 8-10 mph), allowing for effective sequencing.
Movement
Worley’s slider is a sweeper with significant horizontal break (up to 15 inches) and sharp depth, often exhibiting -13 to -14 inches of horizontal movement (HM) and -7 inches of induced vertical break (IVB) at release heights around 5.5 feet. It has a hybrid slider/knuckle-curve profile, blending sweep and tilt for a “big nasty bite” that dives away from right-handed hitters while backfooting lefties. Scouts note its late, sharp action, with the ability to manipulate shape—adding more sweep for swing-and-miss or tightening it for strikes.“
15 inches is a ton of movement horizontally! Sergio Romo may have had twice that though.
Grok Reid Worley Sider - Part 2
DeleteHit-Ability
This is a high-whiff pitch with low hit-ability, frequently called “nasty,” “unorthodox wipeout,” and “among the best breaking balls in the class.” Its elite spin and movement generate plenty of swing-and-miss (evident in showcase videos where batters buckle or chase), in-zone misses, and weak contact. Worley tunnels it exceptionally well off his fastball, meaning the initial trajectory looks similar out of hand, enhancing deception and making it hard for hitters to pick up spin or break early. Reports indicate it’s unlikely to yield loud contact, with scouts projecting it as a future chase pitch in pro ball. However, its effectiveness can wane if command slips, as hangers might get punished at higher levels.
Command and Control
Worley shows budding command of the slider, with the ability to land it for strikes or expand the zone for chases. He attacks hitters confidently, repeating his delivery with ease and using it in any count. Overall control is decent for a high school arm, but the slider’s command needs refinement—it’s a fine strike-thrower now, though occasional inconsistency arises from his lower three-quarters arm slot. He fills the zone well (especially outer half to righties) and projects as a starter if command sharpens further.”
I could teach him a knuckle curve really easily… I used to throw it just like my fastball. It was very accurate and the ball moved downwards about 15 inches right as it approached the plate!
Grok’s Reid Worley - Does he hide the ball well during pitching motion.
DeleteDoes He Hide His Arm Well During Pitching Movements?
“Yes, Worley hides the ball effectively, creating natural deception that enhances his overall arsenal. His mechanics feature a quick, whippy arm from a lower three-quarters slot, with some crossfire action (slight angle across his body) that keeps the ball hidden behind his frame longer during the delivery. Scouting reports explicitly note “natural deception, as he hides the ball well,” and video analysis (from side-angle pitches) shows his arm staying tucked behind his body through the leg lift and into release, making it tough for hitters to pick up the ball early. This, combined with excellent tunneling (pitches sharing similar paths out of hand), adds to the slider’s nastiness and his starter projection. “
Grok on other weird things about Worley and his slider.
DeleteHope this helps you Doc! Grok 3 was wrong 15% of the time, Grok 4 has been wrong once, because I tested it.
“ Other Weird Things About Worley and His Slider
• Unique Grip: The most notable quirk is Worley’s unorthodox slider grip, which has gone viral in scouting circles. Described as “wild,” “insane,” “painful-looking,” and a “unique slider/knuckle-curve hybrid,” it involves a distinctive finger placement that allows for the extreme spin and shape manipulation. He discussed it with Al Leiter at the 2025 MLB Draft Combine, noting it’s self-taught and evolved from experimenting with grips. Videos show it resembling a spike or modified knuckle grip, contributing to the pitch’s erratic, high-spin movement.
• Spin Manipulation: Worley has an innate feel for spin across his arsenal (e.g., curveball at 2,900+ RPM with 11/5 shape), but he can “add and subtract” on the slider for different horizontal breaks, making it versatile.
• Delivery Quirks: He works mostly from the stretch but has incorporated a windup, with loose, repeatable actions and plus arm speed. His frame suggests room for 3-5 mph velocity gains as he fills out.
• Background Notes: As a multi-sport athlete (also played outfield), Worley has dominated PG events and showcases, running his fastball up to 93 mph while baffling hitters with the slider. He’s the only player in his high school program’s history to reach 200 career strikeouts.”
LOL He already has a knuckle-curve and it’s a hybrid! I should have read all the response before posting. Anyhow AI can do so much so fast, it is almost unbelievable. I was a Computer Scientist, Math/Science Option and have been playing around with Grok for several months now! I honestly would have a very difficult time just trying to design what it does!
Thanks, Perry. Really great information.
DeleteYou’re most welcome Doc! I can imagine the time and effort you spend to research things like this. I hope the responses I posted are indeed accurate!
DeleteThanks Perry, interesting information on Worley.
Deletethe thing about Schoolcraft is i'm deeply biased as i am lefthanded and think lefthanded pitching first and then everything else after that. so, yeah, i'm a bit bummed. as for the Giants drafting a few busts, etc. maybe there's a way to assess success through MLB WAR for say the past 10 years for each MLB team. i would think many teams have their share of hits and busts. finally, for this year, maybe it's the depth of the SFG draft based on scouting and analytics that the braintrust is hoping find success.
ReplyDeleteGiants have not had a lot of draft success over the last 10 years by any measure, including WAR.
Delete