2022:
Logan Webb RHP 32 GS, 15-9, 2.90, 192.1 IP, 7.63 K/9, 2.29 BB/9, 2.38 GB/FB, 4.2 fWAR.
Carlos Rodon LHP 31 GS, 14-8, 2.88, 178 IP, 11.98 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 0.77 GB/FB, 6.2 fWAR.
Alex Cobb RHP 28 GS, 7-8, 3.73, 149.2 IP, 9.08 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.98 GB/FB, 3.7 fWAR.
Alex Wood LHP 26 GS, 8-12, 5.10, 130.2 IP, 9.02 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 1.55 GB/FB, 1.7 fWAR.
Jacob Junis RHP 17 GS, 5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 1.29 GB/FB, 1.2 fWAR.
Anthony DeSclafani RHP 5 GS, 0-2, 6.63, 19 IP, 8.05 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.19 GB/FB, 0.0 fWAR.
Opener/Bullpen games 23 GS
Total: 17 fWAR
2023(ZIPS- 50'th percentile):
Logan Webb RHP, 3.7 WAR
Alex Cobb RHP, 2.3 WAR
Ross Stripling RHP, 1.9 WAR
Sean Manaea LHP, 1.0 WAR
Alex Wood LHP 1.9 WAR
Anthony DeSclafani RHP 1.9 WAR
Jake Junis RHP 1.1 WAR
Sean Hjelle RHP 1.1 WAR
Kyle Harrison LHP 1.6 WAR
Total: 16.5 WAR
Outcome: Even. Increased depth makes up for loss of ace.
Opportunity for Upside:
Webb, Cobb and Stripling all put up higher fWAR than 2023 ZIPS projections. In fact they put up a combined 3.1 more fWAR. If you go by ZIPS 80'th percentile WAR, the starting staff combined WAR is 22.2.
Opener/Bullpen games performed well but strained the bullpen. Improved depth should have added impact of improving bullpen performance.
I am betting the Giants pitching coaches can help Sean Manaea bounceback to much more than a 1.0 WAR SP. Other projection systems have him around 2 WAR and he put up 3.1 fWAR in 2021. From Fangraphs pitch values it looks like all they have to do it fix his changeup.
Although it is a generous projection for a rookie, Kyle Harrison LHP has a chance to put up a lot more than 1.6 WAR.
Speaking of upside and forcing issues, Keaton Winn RHP has a 50'th percentile ZIPS of 1.4 WAR.
Comments:
The flaw in the depth theory is there is not enough roster room if everybody is healthy, but Junis and Wood can still contribute as 2-3 inning guys out of the bullpen while Sean Hjelle can be optioned. If Kyle Harrison forces the issue early, we could see a trade of a veteran SP.
Hopefully Harrison will start the year in AAA, dominate for 10-15 starts, and get a callup to the majors. Something for fans to get excited about. Disappointed that Rodon signed with the Yankees considering the Giants want to be a playoff team 2nd year in a row they lost their ace pitcher to free agency -Kevin Gausman in 2021. Hopefully they'll have enough pitching depth to be successful getting through the season
ReplyDeleteKevin Gausman sure looks like a great investment for the BJ's. But a lot can happen in the 4 years he has left on that contract. Hopefully this means the Giants are putting their faith in the kids and see a wave of pitching graduations coming. In addition to Harrison, Sean Hjelle, Keaton Winn look like they could graduate to MLB this year if needed. Then there is Tristan Beck, Mason Black and Landon Roupp. I think Whisenhunt can be a fast mover too.
DeleteThanks Doc, Roupp looks like an under the radar sleeper pitching prospect moving fast through the system. Reports say his breaking balls are highly graded and his fastball has gained velocity since college. Interesting that the Giants have 2 lower round 2021 draft picks in AA ball, Landon Roupp 12th round pick and Vaun Brown 10th round, that's good scouting on their part.
DeleteThe pitching pipeline might not be too top heavy but the line is long and it has the potential to keep producing MLB caliber arms for a long time:
ReplyDeleteKyle Harrison (L)
Sean Hjelle
Tristan Beck
Keaton Winn
Mason Black
Ryan Murphy
Nick Swiney (L)
Landen Roupp
Carson Seymour
Nick Zwack (L)
Will Bednar
Matt Mikulski (L)
Carson Whisenhunt (L)
Reggie Crawford
Trevor McDonald
Eric Silva
Organizational pitching depth has come a long way in a couple of years of pitching heavy drafts. Don't forget the M's, Manzano, Medina and Maldonado, internatonal prospects age 20 and under.
DeleteWith a average, middle of the road offense at best, the pitching must be very good for the Giants to threaten post season. And, on paper, it is good, and, with reasonable health (whatever that is!), it can be very good.
DeleteThis could be a "successful" season. The balance in the NL with 2 good teams in the West, 2 good teams in the East, and 1 or 2 good teams in the Central, there will be a battle for the 6th spot. Most "experts" pick the Phillies – and why not? – which makes the #2 in the Central and the #3 in the West as being competitors for bridesmaid and no cigar.
ESPN does not think the Giants are better than the D'backs, so, for them (ESPN), the only battleground is who wins the Central.
This one is an easy decision to make.
ReplyDeleteWebb is a lock.
Stripling won't last the season. Either injury or ineffectiveness.
I'm still sticking by my assessment that Desclafani won't pitch another game for the Giants. If he does, it'll be one and he'll get shelled. He's done. Undependable.
Cobb and Wood? One might be a solid 5 this season.
Sean Manaea? FZs starting pitching baby. He'll start 30, regardless of effectiveness.
Junis? Probably going to get more innings than he should this year.
Harrison should be given a shot this season. Hopefully we'll not be too many games out when he gets it.
Hopefully Hjelle will get a good look. However I could also see FZ planting him in AAA and then shipping him out in a tradline deal. I really hope not.
Not too optimistic here.
Hope they don't count on Opener/Bullpen games too often. Bad idea overall.
.....and there you have the 20'th percentile outcome.
Delete