Thursday, January 5, 2023

Hot Stove Update: Giants Updated Roster Analysis- First Base

 2022:  

Brandon Belt 63 G.  .213/.326/.350, 8 HR, 0.0 fWAR, 0.9 UZR.
Wilmer Flores 45 G.  .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, 0.0 fWAR, 0.0 UZR.
Darin Ruf 36 G
Lamonte Wade Jr 22 G.  .207/.305/.369, 8 HR, 0.2 fWAR, -0.9 UZR.
J.D. Davis 14 G. .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA, 0.9 dWAR, -0.6 UZR(2 teams).
David Villar 11 G. .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, 0.9 fWAR, -1.0 UZR(4.8 at 3B).
Yermin Mercedes 4 G
Tommy La Stella 3 G
Jason Vosler 2 G
Michael Papierski, Mike Ford, Kevin Padlo 1 G each.

2023(Steamer Projection):

LaMonte Wade Jr.  .228/.324/.392, 13 HR.
Wilmer Flores .250/.322/.414, 16 HR.
J.D. Davis .242/.334/.405, 11 HR.
David Villar .228/.318/.422, 13 HR.

Outcome:  Stand Pat

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Bounceback by Lamonte Wade Jr to 2021 performance.
2.  Play Davis or Villar full time.
3.  Re-sign a healthy Brandon Belt.

First base was a disaster for the Giants in 2022 so it will be hard for them to not upgrade on that performance.  Unfortunately that could be the case as they stayed away from a weak free agent first base market.  The bats with the highest ceilings are Davis and Villar who are both better fielders at 3B and neither bats lefthanded.  Best defensive alignment would be Villar at 3B and Davis at 1B.  I'm thinking they may start the season with a straight platoon of LaMonte Wade Jr and Wilmer Flores with Davis at 3B and Villar optioned to AAA.  If you are horrified by that, I don't blame you, but think of it this way:  If LMWJ Is healthy returns to his 2021 production he is probably a better option against RHP's than either Villar or Davis.

1 comment:

  1. Wade (-0.9 UZR), Davis (-0.6), Villar (-1.0) - all 'versatile' players who can play multiple positions. I assume 1B was not the position they played before becoming 'versatile.'

    Flores (0.0 UZR) - also versatile. In this case, neutral, I guess, if I am interpreting the UZR correctly.

    Belt (0.9 UZR) - first base is his position (when they are not moving him to left field). Of course, Belt is a gold glove level first base man. So he is going to look good compared to all those 'versatile' players above. Still, all negative for those latter guys. (Again, I believe UZR has to do with something about total runs saved, but it may have to be adjusted for games played, and Belt di play more games - 65 - than others in the list above in 2022. In that case, his UZR per game, if we can do that, would not be as 'superior.')

    It seems to me, and I may be wrong, but having versatile players mainly helps on offense, at the expense of defense.

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