Saturday, January 7, 2023

Hot Stove Update: Giants 2023 Updated Position Analysis- Third Base

 2022:

Evan Longoria, 68 G.  .244/.315/.451, 14 HR, UZR= 0.0, fWAR= 1.3, 298 PA.
Wilmer Flores, 34 G.  .229/.316/.394, 19 HR, UZR= -0.3.  fWAR= 1.4(multiple positions), 602 PA.
Jason Vosler, 29 G.  .265/.342/.469, 4 HR, UZR= -0.4.  fWAR= 0.5, 111 PA.
David Villar, 27 G.  .231/.331/.455, 9 HR, UZR= 1.1, fWAR= 0.9, 181 PA.
J.D. Davis, 18 G.  .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, UZR= 1.5, fWAR= 0.9(multiple positions, Mets/Giants), 365 PA.
Luke Williams, 8 G.  .236/.287/.315, HR, 11 SB, UZR= 0.2, fWAR= 0.3, 136 PA(multiple positions/2 teams).
Thairo Estrada, 3 G. UZR= 0.2.

2023:

Wilmer Flores
J.D. Davis
David Villar

Outcome:  Stand Pat/Downgrade?

Opportunity for Upside:

1.  Consistency due to better health from younger players.
2.  Davis and Villar both have 25-30 HR potential with 500 PA's.

Comment:  I believe a big key to Giants success in 2023 is finding 500 PA's for both Davis and Villar.  That could happen by putting one at 3B and the other at 1B.  The biggest barrier to that alignment is FZ/Kap's penchant for L-R matchups.  If LMWJ returns to 2021 form at the plate, he is admittedly probably a better option against RHP's than either Davis or Villar.

11 comments:

  1. I hope Schmitt can force his way onto the team this year, if he can show he has nothing more to prove.

    In that case, they either promote him, or keep him down (because Villar and Davis are doing well) to...uh...work on his pitching (our 2-way star)???

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  2. I was going through the IF defensive stats yesterday. The only three infielders that saw significant action and performed at least adequately with the leather were Belt, Wade Jr (at 1B only) and Villar. So if I have my say, Villar goes to third, Davis who is a poor fielder in all positions, is 'least bad' at 1B so put him there with Wade Jr, I guess.

    But I'm not thrilled with our team's IF. Besides Villar and, possibly, Wade Jr., they're terrible. Their OAA stats are poor. Their DRS stats are poor. Their UZR stats are poor. And I think that poor defense has consequences guys who don't have some elite out-pitch. I think the defense hurt Rodgers somewhat and Wood and Hjelle (among others) even more. Hjelle had a 2.79 xFIP to go with his 5.76 ERA and some of his numbers were well above MLB average and even rivaled Dovals. Wood, whose pitches weren't as strong as in years past, had a 5.10 ERA, despite a very solid 3.41 xFIP.

    So while I think Webb and Rodan, with their elite out-pitches were able, most of the time, to overcome the Giants' defensive lapses, not everyone could. After all, not every pitcher in the MLB has an elite-out-pitch they can rescue themselves with.

    And, yes, I understand some of the pitching problems were bad luck, or pitcher mistakes, or sequencing errors. But our defense was terrible. It did not lift up the pitching staff, rather it was like a millstone around their necks.

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    Replies
    1. I don't disagree with this analysis. I've read that Crawford's D improved a lot when he finally got healthy at the end of the season. Can he stay healthy at age 36? Yikes! Brandon Crawford is 36 years old?

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  3. sad, no player likes to be platooned unless they're @ the end of their career.

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  4. Quality bats should be able to hit all pitching, regardless of which side they throw from. Platoons give you subpar batters from both sides.

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  5. Seems like there will be a lot of mixing and matching but I agree, in order for the IF defense to improve, they gotta go with Villar at 3B and Crawford at SS for a lot of innings. The guy who was actually surprisingly pretty bad last year was Thairo Estrada. And a lot of bad innings went to AAAA players. The thing is, last year the defense was historically bad. So as long as they improve and are not the worst by far, they should have the talent to be middle of the pack defensively. Many competitive playoff teams were somewhere middle of the pack.

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  6. Platoons work great, but you can't platoon every position so you need six or seven everyday guys.

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  7. I should add that Casey Schmitt might be ready to take over 3B for the next 6 years by midseason.

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  8. I was doing some reading. Casey Schmitt won a Minor League Gold Glove at 3B. He moved from A+ to AA to AAA last year. He hit .273 (A+), .342 (AA and we know just how hard hitting in AA is) and .333 (AAA), respectively. His final line was .273 with 21 HRs and an OPS of .834 https://www.milb.com/player/casey-schmitt-669477

    His defensive prowess is compared to Arenado's.

    Obviously we've all had sky-high hopes for a prospect until the bitter-reality of not living up to expectations has set in. But instead of being cynical and skeptical, I have to admint that I'm kind of jacked on this one.

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