Giants 2022 Season Preview: 5 Bold Predictions

 Bold Predictions are a thing.  It's an exercise where a baseball writer tries to make a prediction that most people think is unlikely to come true but yet is plausible enough that it might.  If it does, you can crow about it at the end of the season. If not, well, nobody expected it to happen anyway.  Here are my 5 Bold Predictions for the 2022 Giants:

1.  Joey Bart C wins NL ROY:  OK, this one isn't so bold as mlb.com has him as one of 5 contenders.  Draft Kings has him at #2 but with long odds.  Joey Bart has taken a lot of incoming heat over the winter due to his disastrous emergency callup in 2020 and middling 2021 AAA campaign.  While there are legitimate concerns about his K rate, the dimissive commentary is mostly unfair as he was rushed up before any reasonable observer thought he was ready.  He looked like a different guy throughout spring training and his stock is back on the rise.  Is 30 HR's and ROY too much to hope for?

2.  Giants starting rotation finishes the season with a lower ERA than the Dodgers rotation:  The Dodgers have an impressive top 3 in Walker Buehler RHP, Luis Urias LHP and Clayton Kershaw LHP, but the last two spots on their rotation depth chart are Tony Gonsolin RHP and Andrew Heaney LHP.  It's possible Dustin May RHP could come out firing bullets after full recovery from Tommy John surgery(BTW, why to Dodger pitchers always seem to come out of TJ surgery throwing 100 MPH and the Giants pitchers come out throwing 92 and hitting the backstop?).  Bobby Miller RHP could come up from AAA midseason and dominate.  On the other hand, Kershaw's left arm seems to be hanging by a thread and there is concern over Urias velocity.

Meanwhile, the Giants have a co-aces of their own in Logan Webb RHP and Carlos Rodon LHP at the top of their rotation and the Anthony DeSclafani RHP, Alex Wood LHP and Alex Cobb RHP look to be almost as good as the top 2.  The Giants have some depth of their own in Tyler Beede RHP, Carlos Martinez RHP, Jakob Junis RHP and Sean Hjelle RHP.

3.  The Giants will hit more HR's this year than last:  OK the Giants surprised everybody last year by hitting 242 and leading the NL.  Yes, they lose Buster Posey and Kris Bryant but they combined for just 25 of those 242 HR's.  They also lost 13 by Alex Dickerson and 7 by Donnie Barrels(Fun Fact:  Mike Tauchman hit 4 HR's for the Giants last year).  Add those all up and the Giants lose 45 HRs.  But what if Joey Bart hits 30?  That beats Posey and Bryant all by himself.  Then there is Joc Pederson who has averaged 29 per 600 PA's over his career.  He should easily make up the Dick/Barrels/Tauchman losses.  Depending on how many PA's Thairo Estrada gets, I could see him hitting 15-20. What about Heliot Ramos?  How many more will he hit when he gets the callup?  So yeah, I think this one is doable.

4.  Carlos Rodon LHP wins the NL Cy Young Award:  He might not remain fully healthy all season but if he does, Rodon has a great chance to put together a Cy Young caliber season.  He wasn't that far off last year with the ChiSox and he's moving to a much more friendly pitching environment.

5.  Giants Repeat as NL West Champs:  On paper, the Dodgers have overwhelming frontline talent.  I'm not denying that.  But, we've already talked about their lack of starting pitching depth.  The also just traded a pretty good player, A.J. Pollock OF, to get Craig Kimbrel RHP who was terrible in the second half last season, an apparent desperation move to try to make up the loss of Kenley Jansen RHP to free agency.  Granted, the Dodgers have other better than decent options for Closer including Blake Treinen RHP and Brusdar Graterol RHP, but why would they give up a player like Pollock if they didn't think they really, really needed a Closer?  On top of their thinness at pitcher, the Dodgers have some age and injury issues at 3B, Cody Bellinger OF/1B has been in a severe slump long enough to think he might not come out of it.  The Dodgers could still suffer a major injury to a frontline hitter and still be very good but they aren't quite as deep as they were over the past 2-3 years.

The Giants probably need to stay healthy for the season to make this happen but they have potential in-house reinforcements like Heliot Ramos OF, Tyler Beede RHP, Jakob Junis RHP, Carlos Martinez RHP, Sean Hjelle RHP and Kervin Castro RHP.  

Both teams will likely upgrade at the trade deadline and the Dodgers are probably more willing to part with minor league talent to get it done.  An the other hand, if #'s 1, 2, 3 and 4 above all come true a repeat of last season is not out of the question.