Hey team! Hope everybody had a happy and safe Thanksgiving. Not much action around the Hot Stove since Kevin Gausman accepted his Qualifying Offer. Talk of replacing that with a negotiated long term deal has died down and it's looking like KG will pitch for his $18.9 M payday and enter free agency again next year without the QO.
Meanwhile, let's take a look at a couple of emerging options on the international market as two Japanese pitching stars take the posting plunge. With Gausman secured, I expect FZ to mostly sit back and let the rest of the market come to him, but Japanese pitchers that come through the posting system have proven to be solid, if unspectacular values over the years. I expect FZ to at least kick the tires on both of these players.
Kohei Arihara RHP. 28 yo. 6'2", 210 lbs.
2019: 2.46, 164.1 IP, 161 K, 40 BB.
2020: 3.46, 137.2 IP, 106 K, 30 BB.
Sturdily built RHP with a strong lower half who looks like he can be a workhorse. On video, looks like a bigger version of Kenta Maeda who will succeed with solid command of several pitches and changing speeds to keep hitters off balance.
Tomayuki Sugano RHP. 31 yo. 6'1", 185 lbs.
2020: 1.97, 137.1 IP, 131 K, 25 B.
Ace pitcher in the Nippon league. Coming off a stronger season than Arihara but 3 years older. Similar profile. Delivers from a lower arm angle than Arihara.
For whatever reason, the Giants have never been a significant factor in the Asian market. Personally I think it's about time FZ did something about that. I could see either one or both of these pitchers helping the Giants a lot and being a solid investment.
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The Non-Tender deadline is expected to dump a large cohort of additional free agents on the market. That's an area where FZ might be lurking to grab some upside potential. One name I find intriguing is Carlos Rodon LHP, who fits the profile of a former elite prospect who has seen their value drop due to injures and/or ineffectiveness. If you recall, Rodon was a #3 overall draft pick by the White Sox on 2014. Since making his MLB debut in 2015, he has seen his ERA rise every season: 3.75, 4.04, 4.15, 4.18, 5.19, 8.22. It is very unlikely the White Sox will tender him a contract with an estimated arbitration value of over $ 4 M. Two reasons he may be a bounceback candidate with some fresh coaches and new scenery, especially in Oracle Park and the NL West: 1. His FIP's for the past two seasons are considerable better than his ERA at 3.62 and 4.89 respectively. 2. His average FB velocity was still a very respectable 92.9 last season.
He would definitely be worth a low level MLB contract or a MILB contract with a spring training invitation. Between the coaching staff and Oracle Park, the Giants are a destination team for pitchers looking to rebuild they market value.
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Who do you have on your Hot Stove radar?
Major league pitching free agents: with apologies to John Steinbeck, the winter of our discontent.
ReplyDeleteOne year deals...
OTOH, worked pretty good for SF Giants Gausman and Smyly. They grabbed a golden ring if not The Ring.
What do you think of a projected Giants l/u against RHP with ONE guy under 30?
ReplyDeleteSlater and Flores are under 30 until August when Wilmer turns.
If Tromp is Buster's replacement 1-2 times a week, he's "young" but not very good and would probably see tough RHP while batting R.
A lot of things clicked for the almost-Giants in 2020 — who besides Posey and maybe Dubon or Slater can be expected to have a better year in 2021?
Natural declines & more injuries don't bode well for graybeards.
Here's hoping Farhan can pull some "bunnies" out of his hat.
I will be somewhat surprised if FZ does not acquire a lefty hitting catcher to back up Buster for 2021.
DeleteBrad Hand could have been claimed for $10M, one-year contract, but no one picked him up.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
Had the Giants had him last year, they would have made the playoffs!
My guess is it's almost an article of faith for FZ to not spend money on relievers. I don't completely agree with that philosophy, but it's pretty clear that's what he believes.
DeleteYou're right about FZ on this. Hand would be nice in 2021 but there are many SF pitching holes that $10M won't fix.
DeleteBut why did NO ONE want him for $10M. Dodgers have reliever problems andd not many others -- seems they could use him. Of course since no one wanted him they can probably sign him for half. Rings are forever.