Arbitration Deadline Day came for the Giants on Wednesday evening. As usual, the Giants played it close to the vest and did not reveal their decisions until late in the day. Here's the final scorecard: The Giants avoided arbitration by coming to terms with 6 players, offered arbitation to 2 others and "non-tendered 2. They also created some extra 40-man roster space by "non-tendering 3 pre-arbitration eligible players. BTW, I did not know they could even do that! Here's the breakdown:
AGREED TO TERMS:
Alex Dickerson OF: $2.1 M. Dick has had more than his share of injury issues but when he's been healthy has always raked. $2.1 M on a 1 year deal is a major bargain for the Giants.
Darin Ruf OF/1B: $1.25 M. It's not entirely clearly where and how Ruf fits if there's no DH, but like Dick, he rakes and wasn't half bad in the field either. The bat alone is worth the money with minimal risk in a 1 year contract.
Austin Slater OF: $1.15 M. Slater's bat came alive last season but he also once again missed significant time with injury. Maybe FZ figures he can get 1 full season out of Slater and Dick combined for a total cost of $3.25 M? That's actually a pretty good deal!
Jarlin Garcia LHP: $950 K. The 3-batter rule has made LHP's who can get RH batters out incredibly valuable. Garcia had a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 IP last year. This deal is a steal for the Giants.
Wandy Peralta LHP: $925 K. Ditto Garcia. Peralta did not have the gaudy ERA but made 25 appearances last for 27.1 IP. Another steal for FZ.
Trevor Gott RHP: $700 K. Not sure what the fascination is with Gott. He's not been very good in 2 stints with the Giants. This is one I might have passed on. but not because of the money which is minimal.
AGREED TO ARBITRATION:
Donovan Solano 2B: MLBTR Projected Salary- $2.2-3.8 M. I keep waiting for "Donnie Barrels" to wake up from his coma but he just keeps barreling 'em up in his sleep. This is a good deal even if the Giants have to pay up on the top end of the range.
Reyes Moronta RHP: MLBTR Projected Salary- $800 K. Of course the two sides can continue negotiation up to the moment they enter the arbitration hearing. lt seems like it would make a lot of sense for both sides to agree to $800 K and avoid the drama. Giants obviously willing to gamble that much on Moronta's health for next season.
"NON-TENDERED":
Daniel Robertson UT: This was widely expected but disappointing to me. Robertson is a rare utility guy who will give you at least league average D at shortstop and he hit very well in an extremely small sample after a late acquisition last year. I have a feeling Robertson is going to latch on somewhere and blossom but FZ seems to have his heart set on a lefty hitting utility IF and Robertson hits from the wrong side of the plate.
Tyler Anderson LHP: Anderson did not pitch great for the Giants last year but swingmen who can eat innings don't necessarily grow on trees and the Giants are woefully short of "bulk innings" guys. On the other hand, there was a lot of cost uncertainty in offering arbitration and pitching is plentiful on the FA market, especially after "non-tender" day.
PRE-ARBITRATION "NON-TENDERS":
Melvin Adon RHP: Stinks for Adon as he just blew out something in his arm after hitting 101 MPH on a pitch in winter ball. Word is the Giants will re-sign him to a minor league deal and just wanted to clear out the 40-man roster spot. But, would that have happened without the injury?
Rico Garcia RHP: Just wasn't very good. Fungible asset. Giants have better uses for the 40-man roster spot.
Chadwick Tromp C: Flashed a bit of power but not much else. Look for FZ to sign a lefty hitting C to back up Buster Posey with Joey Bart getting a sprinkle of salt in Sacramento.
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The White Sox hired away the Giants Assistant Pitching Coach, Ethan Katz, to be their head pitching coach. The Giants responded by hiring J.P. Martinez who had been the Twins Assistant Pitching Coordinator. Maria Guardado of sfgiants.com astutely points out that FZ and Kap are dedicated to continuing player development at the MLB level and have shown a strong preference for young coaches with a player development background.
It works for real estate (location, location, location) and it works for baseball (pitching, pitching, pitching, as in starting, relieving, closing).
ReplyDeleteIn an abbreviated 2020: 1 game short of the playoffs because of pitching, 5 or more games short of being a force because of the pitching, 10 or more games short of a shot at the WS becaue of pitching.
SF can survive with a D problem in LF and LHB problem in the IF, but they are also rans without pitching: at least a couple more good starters, a few more good relievers, and at least one closer.
Maybe dumpster diving will edge the Giants into the post season, but even the heroes among the prospects don't make a WS team without new blood on the mound.
Your mission, FZ, is to win and how is obvious to everyone. The ten (+/-) pitchers you need aren't all on the roster, in the system, or wallowing in the trash.
IMHO
This is one of few opinions that I have read that is actually critical of FZ and his "process" and it is very refreshing. Most everyone else has labeled FZ a genius and heap praise on his every move. I myself am tired of hearing what an amazing job he has done simply because he inherited a bunch of bad contracts and supposedly has a plan.
DeleteSomehow it is deserving of credit to inherit a bad situation and wait 3-4 years before making an actual difficult decision. If FZ doesn't spend money this offseason or pull off a huge trade to improve the team, it will be 3 years without doing anything significant. I look at other sports franchises and their front office moves in recent years and this will be by far the most rope I have seen anyone ever given who hasn't really done anything before they got here or since.
This team is a top 5 revenue generating MLB team that is behaving like one of the bottom 5. There have been players over the last 2 years in free agency that could have helped us next year had they been acquired last year or the year before. There have been trades available as well yet the only thing we can hang our hat on is that our management team can find treasure in the trash.
The only "building" that I can see on this roster has been flooding the minor and major leagues with retreads and long shots (along with FZ's questionable draft picks and mediocre trade acquisitions) with a complete lack of investing actual dollars into the product on the field. Paying Gausman $19 million for one year isn't a long term investment unless somehow FZ is magically able to convert him into a midseason trade for future stars which obviously he wasn't able to do last year and hasn't done with anyone....ever.
Unfortunately I don't think FZ has had much of a choice in terms of being able to spend money. Ownership has clearly put the brakes on spending which is probably more worrisome than FZ not making any significant moves. My fear is that they don't spend money this offseason or any of the following while they stick to FZ's plan of doing exactly what Tampa Bay is obviously much better than him at. No long term contracts means no players that you get to know and cheer for, buy their jerseys, and all the other things that make us glad we aren't the A's. I really hope I am wrong but I won't be spending my hard earned money to go to the ballpark more than maybe once a year if this is going to be the product they put forth for the foreseeable future.
Giants had too many success stories last year to not give some credit to the new coaching approach. That's a win for the FZ regime. I agree he is going to have to take some risks at some point and needs more than Gausman and some dumpster dives to have a competitive pitching staff for 2021.
DeleteTo reinforce the point about player development: Martinez speaks Spanish, the second Spanish-speaker (as I recall) among the coaches; and, as someone has noted, the Giants have seven Spanish-speaking pitchers on the 40-man, including all three prospects recently protected from the Rule 5 draft, Castro, Doval, and Santos. They may also, as I hope, be looking at Carlos Rodón as a possible starter. I’d think that for reasons of clarity and persuasiveness, a Spanish speaker might be ideal as a trusted coach for these young or rehabilitating pitchers.
ReplyDeleteI note that Rodón was born in Miami, Florida, so my including him may be a glib mistake.
ReplyDeleteRodon's arm is toast, no changing that no matter what language he and the pitching coaches speak. Players like Rodon shouldn't be at the top of our list when the Giants have plenty of money to spend on actual healthy proven pitchers. The entire league is cinching up their purse strings and preparing for Armageddon and we have one of the richest teams in the league. If there was ever a time to spend money it is now with contracts becoming shorter and shorter and for less money for everyone other than the top 2-3 FA's. Even Bauer is going to get much less than he probably would have a year or two ago so why not be the team that gets him at a bargain? There is no reason not to add significant pieces to improve this team not only for next year but the following years unless ownership simply doesn't want to spend. I would love to be a fly on the wall in their meetings when they discuss what they would like the payroll to look like in 3-4 years. My guess is they want it to be closer to 60% of what it was at its' peak over the last 10 years with no corresponding price decreases of course.
DeleteI'm interested to know whey you say Rodon's arm is toast. He underwent TJ surgery in 2019. Went on the 45 day IL with shoulder soreness in August of 2020 but came back in September and pitched a few innings. His ERA in that small sample was a very bad 8.22 but his average FB velocity was 92.9 which is close to what it ever was.
DeleteHe seems like a nice post-hype sleeper type who could flourish with a change of scenery, like the Giants coaching staff and Oracle Park.
“Spending money” has typically meant longer-term commitments, and pricey long-term contracts have typically worked out badly. FZ has been wise to avoid them while he has assessed what he has in the system and built up the farm; he has also set up a coaching situation that seems radically to have improved the offense and the salable skills of at least three veteran pitchers—Pomeranz, Smyly, and Gausman. Why he should get a lot of guff, before he has made any moves for 2021, I can’t fathom. That said, this year seems like one where spending can be separated from long-term contracts by looking at free agents who would like to rehabilitate themselves for more lucrative free agency next year. One of those is Rodón, who’s 3rd-year arb now, and a FA in 2022. Others might include Paxton and Kluber. This is a variant of “dumpster diving” with which I’d be very pleased.
DeleteWhen he was drafted top 5 overall it was because he had a 96-98 mph fastball and a devastating slider. Since then he has had numerous arm injuries that have reduced his velocity to 92.9 mph average which paired with a less devastating slider and no other pitches makes him a bullpen arm at best. The injuries are the biggest concern but his overall success when healthy should be the reason why he isn't worth a shot. His numbers were never good other than when he was throwing 98 mph which he isn't anymore.
DeleteRodon was drafted in 2014 and made his MLB debut in early 2015. He recorded an ERA of 3.75 that season. Per Fangraphs his average FB velocity that season was 93.4. So, when did these arm injuries occur and when did he throw 98 MPH?
DeleteRodon's predraft scouting report: FB 93-96 MPH. Best pitch was slider which was rated best in draft. There were concerns about his reliance on the slider in college translating to the pros.
Delete...."touched 97-98 MPH." When I see the word "touched" in a scouting report about velocities, I generally take it with a grain of salt.
DeleteOne might usefully think of spending and long-term contracts separately. “Spending money” has typically meant longer-term commitments, and pricey long-term contracts have typically worked out badly. FZ has been wise to avoid them while he has assessed what he has in the system and built up the farm; he has also set up a coaching situation that seems radically to have improved the offense and the salable skills of at least three veteran pitchers—Pomeranz, Smyly, and Gausman. Why he should get a lot of guff, before he has made any moves for 2021, I can’t fathom. That said, this year seems like one where spending can be separated from long-term contracts by looking at free agents who would like to rehabilitate themselves for more lucrative free agency next year. One of those is Rodón, who’s 3rd-year arb now, and a FA in 2022. Others might include Paxton and Kluber. This is a variant of “dumpster diving” with which I’d be very pleased.
DeleteSee response to Keiser Sose below.
Delete....but agree Rodon is an interesting guy who seems like a great fit for the Giants coaching staff and Oracle Park....as long as he doesn't cost too much, which he probably won't.
DeleteI wonder what is the difference between non-tender a pre-arbitration player vs outright releasing them. Why didn't they just release them back in November. Does that mean there is no one else in the system they felt needed to be protected from the Rule V draft? Or are there more players they like available to be drafted, so they need to clear roster space? Or they anticipate non-tender candidates from other clubs they like? Anyways, curious as to the difference between non-tender vs release. Must be some financial implication.
ReplyDeleteI actually wonder the same thing so no answers from me.
DeleteFrom Roger Munter: "By a quirk of MLB regulations, non-tendering a player who isn’t arb eligible is the only way to remove them from the 40-man without exposing them to waivers."
DeleteOdorizzi is #11 on MLBTR's list. He pitches 5.1 innings per start. Always has, always will if his acquirer is lucky.
ReplyDeleteThat's an average AL pitcher. Is 5 innings/game an innings eater? $39 million/3 years for a #4/5? 30 starts, 150-160 innings.
Might as well re-sign Samardzija for half that. Or less. If he's healthy he'll give you 180 IP. Maybe.
After Bauer it's a desert - Gausman although expensive for 1 year is probably the best!
Tanaka will re-sign with NY.
More 1-year reclamation projects? Think about it: Smyly got $11M for his 26 innings in 7 games in 2020.
Might as well dumpster dive this year, unless Bauer is b-o-u-g-h-t!
Fixing SF's starting pitching won't be easy. Or cheap. If possible.
You cannot spend money, just because you can. Long term contracts usually hurt at the tail end, and that is when we will have our prospects will be ready.
ReplyDeleteI would rather wait now and spend money, when we have only a few holes to fill. FZ showed that he can spend money when it makes sense, see Harper and Gausman this year. And they made a reasonable effort on Madbum. Eventually, he would have to show he can take risks to win it all, but we are not there yet.
I look at long term spending as what you do for that special player who you build a team around. There admittedly not that many players in that category who come available through free agency or trade. When they do, I believe you can make that commitment anytime in the build/teardown/rebuild cycle. Those contracts are generally for at least 6 or 7 years and you are counting on elite production for at least 4-5 years. If you are a GM and you don't think you can put a competitive team around a player like that well within those 4-5 productive years, you should be thinking about a different career.
DeleteMy concern this offseason is can the Giants convince a good free agent or two to "take their $"? Might Not be easy since the team is on the fringe of contending. FZ tried hard to sign Bryce Harper and even DJ LaMahieu a few years ago. They could sell their success stories involving Pomeranz, Gausman, Smyly to free agent pitchers looking to bounce back. FZ said based on meetings with agents that the tide may be turning that free agent hitters may consider signing with them based on their offensive improvement last year. I'm somewhat concerned that FZ has said he has received a mandate from ownership to make smart baseball decisions. That might cause FZ not to overpay a free agent and make it a more difficult sign.. Then again it might be a good thing in some cases. It sounds to me that FZ is not closing the door to anything that will improve the roster and will wait till the market comes to him. During this period where teams lost massive amounts of $$ and may cut spending, waiting out the market may be the smart way go. LG
ReplyDeleteWhen the Giants enjoyed their run of championships they relied on a largely homegrown pitching staff, including their key starters as well as their closers. These mainstays were supplemented by key bullpen additions and back end starters from outside the organization. Under Sabean, the Giants seemed to emphasize drafting and developing pitching and trading the excess for other needs, including hitters. It is a bit early to know if Zaidi plans to pivot and focus on drafting and developing more pitching after seemingly focusing on the offense (and doing a pretty good job at that). What I'm getting at is that expensive long term contracts for pitchers, especially starters, is a risky investment and, as Doc points out, what you do for a special player that you build a team around. Pitchers of that caliber are exceedingly rare, and teams likely have to overpay for such pitchers and face the reality that they are paying for a few good seasons along with a disappointing tail end of the contract. I'd like to see the organization shore up their pitching starting from the lowest levels. Hopefully the fact that their pipeline features promising offensive talent will now allow them to focus on improving the pitching in the organization.
ReplyDeleteWhen a Starting Pitcher is paid $30M or more a year, that's about $175,000 per inning at the beginning and more than $200,000 per inning at the end. Or very worse.
ReplyDeleteBauer at 30 yo, might help in 2021 and 2022, but when he is needed in 2023 and beyond is he sucking up resources and not delivering #1 level pitching?
Kershaw is entering his 33 yo season - will he even get 150 IP for $31M, more than $200,000 per inning?
Greinke broke down at 32 but recovered 33-35 for 200+ IP at $175,000 per inning. He has yet to win a WS game at $32+M per year.
Verlander also broke down at 32, also recovered, but is 0-6 in the WS, including 2 losses in 2019 that would have won the WS!
Is Bauer one of those? That's a big roll of the dice.
Where is the Giants' #1 going to come from?
It will be Gausman in 2021, if he gets support he might get the Giants into the playoffs. Will he extend? Giants will pay him $18M for 2021, can they add Bauer for a pretty good !-2 but pay $50M for them, hoping to extend Gausman?
If they did, with Cueto at 3, and Webb or some one at the back end, they could be very competitive, but that's $70M for 3 SP's?
Seems like a lot but it only brings 2021 total to $165M.
And maybe enough pitching to challenge.
Big, long term contracts for pitchers have tended to not work out well for the Giants or anyone else. Given their current situation, I would rather see them sign three $10 M pitchers than one $30 M pitcher and not go over 3 years.
DeleteSo I guess Matt Wisler is another shrewd move by FZ that everyone is going to praise. Honestly it seems like there are 100 guys that could be had cheap that all have "upside" and would be considered good moves by a now thrifty and cautious management team.
ReplyDeleteSo for around a million dollars you get a guy who at best could be a set up option and at worst may not make it out of spring training if his slider doesn't bite enough in the desert. Liam Hendricks on the other hand is going to cost you around 30 million over 3 years with a ceiling of elite closer and a floor of every other closer in the league (all are a pitch away from blowing out their arms).
If you looked at it purely based on talent who would you rather have? Factor in the money and the fact that the Giants have enough to pay a short term medium sized contract like Hendricks will command and I still would rather have him over Wisler, Rosenthal, Colomne, Robles, and whoever else is out there on the cheap.
My point is that the Giants are in a financial position to be able to pay the better player so if they truly want to win why aren't they? I am not asking for a 10 year/300 million dollar player mind you, just a closer who if we would have had him last year would have taken us to the playoffs. You can look for years in the trash for a guy like that or you can just write a check...