The Hot Stove is officially lit. The Giants, as I (sort of) predicted, extended a Qualifying Offer to RHP Kevin Gausman. The offer is for $18.9 M for one season. That is a lot of money for a pitcher with mixed past performances, but makes a lot of sense when you consider he made $9 M last year and performed in near-dominant fashion in a shortened season: 3-3, 3.62, 59.2 IP, 16 BB, 79 K. That performance extended over a 162 game schedule would be a no-brainer for a QO!
Fangraphs Craig Edwards has Gausman ranked as the #14 FA for 2020-2021 and the #5 ranked pitcher behind Trevor Bauer RHP, Mashahiro Tanaka RHP, Marcus Stroman RHP and James Paxton LHP with a projected contract of 2 years/$28 M. While free agent economics is extremely difficult to project in this economy, I think that is way low and Gausman will command a much larger long term deal on the open market, even with the QO!
Even so, Gausman has publicly said he wants to return to the Giants and particularly wants to play with Buster Posey and the QO certainly signals that the Giants think highly of him to the point of being willing to pay him if he accepts the QO. Word from the beat writers is both sides are working on a longer term agreement, presumably at a lower AAV which is how I predict this will work out. Either the QO or a longer term contract appears to be a good deal for both sides with Gausman being the linchpin of rebuilding a decimated starting rotation.
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The Giants really need to bring in at least 4 other staring pitchers this offseason as I don't see how they can count on any one of Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb or Tyler Anderson. All three need to be competing for a spot rather than being considered established starters.
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The Giants also reinstated Tyler Beede RHP, Reyes Moronta RHP, Aramis Garcia C and Joey Rickard OF from the 60 day DL. Rickard was then outrighted to AAA Sacramento. He is eligible to declare himself a free agent. Tyler Heineman C and Anthony Banda LHP were also outrighted to Sacramento. I read a note that Banda has agreed to a minor league contract with the Giants. These moves leave the Giants with 37 players on their 40 man roster.
The Giants have their Ace signed at least for 2021.
ReplyDeleteThere are many many SP & RP pitchers on MLBTR's top 50 FA's, a lot at bargain prices, considering. They have Smyly coming back to the G's for $5MM - that would be nice. And Trevor May, too. Just about everyone that pitches is on the Giants list. Which figures.
It appears it won't be a good year to be a FA and get a TON of money.
Let's assume that Gausman accepts the $19 million QO. I am reading some of the other sites you have listed as your favorites to the left and one of them claims that the Giants might be spenders this offseason. They are somewhere around $80 million below the soft cap which would give them around $60 more to spend after Gausman.
ReplyDeleteKnowing what we know about Farhan and the Giants needs, how likely is it that he breaks open the checkbook this offseason? I would almost prefer he wait until after the 2021 season to spend with the class of FA's that are set to be available but if this is the year then what can he realistically do to fill all the holes in this lineup/rotation/bullpen with $60 million?
One route would be to go after a few SP's and a left handed infield bat like La Stella or Didi. There are also trade scenarios out there for Lindor or possibly others that don't make a lot of sense since Farhan would have to give up prospects which he doesn't seem to like to do. Would Bauer or Springer or even Ozuna and Simeon make any sense? Again, I would prefer to wait until 2022 to go after some juicier names but there are several talented players that would only cost the Giants money this offseason and could probably be had for less money and years than in the coming years.
I guess what I am trying to say is, I miss reading your blog every day and getting your perspective. It is hard to go to other sites and try to make sense of an article that thinks a realistic trade scenario is Belt, Wilson, and Corry for Lindor. I hope you are enjoying your time away but I also selfishly hope you get the itch again soon and start peeling off some content for all of us. Thanks for everything you have given us in the past and we all hope you decide to get back in the saddle soon.
Thank you for the kind words. Here's how I see big ticket free agents. If you make a decision to sign a top-shelf free agent, you are likely looking at a 6-7 year investment. If the right guy is out there to make that type of investment, you don't pass because the time isn't right. If you aren't planning to be competitive long before the end of that contract, you have no business being GM.
DeleteHaving said that, I am not sure "that guy" is out there this year. Maybe Trevor Bauer and/or George Springer, but I'm personally not sold on either.
It looks to me like Farhan is going to have to sign not just one or two pitchers but close to a whole rotation if he wants to be at all competitive in 2021. I mean, can he really count on any of Cueto, Webb and Anderson? Even for the #5 spot in the rotation? I expect Gausman to be the big signing then maybe 2 mid-range FA's then dumpster dive and churn for the rest. Add in a veteran reliever and that is still a large offseason investment.
Re posting on blog: I am enjoying the break since there really isn't a whole lot to write about. I will start writing more when the Hot Stove heats up and there is activity to post about. In the meantime, keep the comments coming. I am happy to respond.
If it were a matter of one or two more players for Giants, they could have been aggressive. But they have the flexibility to spend if the right opportunity presents itself. I expect Zaidi to sign another inner decent starter, and wait for opportunities for the remainder of the off-season. With all teh financial concerns, I am sure there will be plenty of opportunities.
DeleteI think this off season will be interesting. I doubt that the Giants will go after Springer and there is no need to go after Realmuto. I think that they do need to pursue a Gausman, Smyly, and probably one more starter. After 2021, Belt, Posey, and Crawford's contracts all end and, even if they keep them, that will free them up to make a bigger splash. They will also be one year closer to Luciano, Bishop, Bart etc being ready for the big leagues full time. I am excited for 2022 and beyond.
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