Giants fans who were hoping to keep both Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly for 2021 got a shock today when the Braves signed Smyly for 1 yr/$11 M. This is a very nice raise for Smyly who made $4 M last year and more than doubles MLBTR's prediction of a 1 yr/$5 M free agent contract which seemed very low to me considering how well he pitched in 2020. On the other hand, he has an extensive injury history and 2020 was not exception as his missed significant time with a finger strain and pitched only 26+ innings. Smyly was reportedly seeking a 3 yr/$30 M deal but with a veritable tidal wave of non-tenders looming, apparently decided to grab the generous 1 year offer from the Braves while it was still on the table.
So far in the current free agency cycle, teams seem to be more willing to overpay on 1 year deals than take the risk of a multi-year deal, at least for pitchers. Smyly becomes the third free agent pitcher to sign a 1 year contract for significantly more than MLBTR's prediction after Robbie Ray signed with the Blue Jays for 1 yr/$8 M and Kevin Gausman accepted a 1 yr/$18.9 M qualifying offer contract from the Giants(Gausman and the Giants may still negotiate an extension at a lower AAV).
Alex P of NBC Bay Area points out that the Giants and Oracle Park have become a destination for pitchers looking to build value out of a 1 year contract after Drew Pomeranz, Gausman and now Smyly parlayed modest 1 year contracts into substantial raises in free agency. There are already a large number of free agent pitchers who would seem likely to benefit from a deal like that and Fangraphs is projecting a "deluge" of coming non-tenders via the arbitration process. I am sure FZ is pouring over secondary stats PitchFx data as I write this. Churn on!
Among the 12-15 top SF Giants pitching prospects, is there anyone who might be a Cain, Lincecum, or Bumgarner? Or a true Top of the rotation? Corry? Harrison?
ReplyDeleteAs the Giants promote their prized position prospects, should they think seriously about topping their rotation with #1 Free Agent? If so, who? When?
Would it be helpful to the development of the future rotation to have an established mentor, like perhaps Schmidt was?
While several current Giants pitching prospects could have very nice MLB careers, none compare to the Big 3 as prospects. I expect FZ to continue to pursue quantity over quality with his pitching acquisitions.
DeleteI'm sure you're right.
DeleteCan you win without a hammer?