Thoughts on Kevin Cash's Conundrum

 In the 6'th inning of Game 6 of the World Series, Rays Manager Kevin Cash faced a conundrum.  In case you are wondering, a conundrum is defined in the dictionary as a confusing or difficult problem.  I tend to define it as a problem for which solutions produce a new problem which is as difficult or more difficult than the original problem.  Cash's conundrum was what to do about his starting pitcher, Blake Snell, who was about as dominant as possible through the first 5 innings of the game.  

Snell made a first inning 1-0 lead hold up through those 5 innings while allowing just one hit and striking out 9.  He had thrown 73 pitches, well below the usual pitch limit for a SP.  With one out in the 6'th, Snell allowed a single to the 9'th batter in the lineup, Austin Barnes which brought one of the best RH batters in the game, Mookie Betts, to the plate.  Betts had already struck out twice against Snell, so it seemed like a no-brainer for Snell to face Betts again with only 1 runner on at 1B, but those two previous AB's were the problem as now Snell had pitched through the Dodgers lineup twice and was now turning over for a third round.

It is a fact that most pitchers are not nearly as effective when they face batters who have already batted twice against them in the same game.  The Rays, possibly more than any other organization, believe in that data and do not like to allow their pitchers to face batters who have had those two previous plate appearance.  But wait, you say.  Blake Snell is different.  He is their ace pitcher.  He was dominant up to that point.  It's an elimination game.  There were lots of reasons for Cash to see if he could get Mookie Betts out one more time then face the lefty hitting Corey Seager to get the game to the 7'th inning.

Blake Snell is the ace of the Rays staff, but he's no workhorse or innings eater in the mold of Madison Bumgarner to pick just one comparison.  In 108 career Starts, Snell has pitched 556 innings for an average of just over 5.1 innings per Start.  2020 was no different with 50 IP in 11 Starts.  For comparison sake, Bumgarner has averaged well over 6 innings per start over the course of his career.  Snell's failure to go deep into games is very likely due mostly to the Rays pitching philosophy, but do we know what happens when he does go deeper into games?

First of all, Snell does not have a significant L-R split, so Mookie Betts' righthandedness was not a reason to pull Snell.  There is, however, a significant difference when facing batters for the third time in a game.  Here's the breakdown(from B-R):

First Time Through Order:  .205/.280/.312.

Second Time Through Order:  .234/.316/.396.

Third Time Through Order:  .247/.329/.413.

But what about his pitch count which was at 73?  He certainly still had some gas left in the tank, right?  Lets look at his pitch count splits(again from B-R):

1-25:  .221/.288/.341.

26-50:  .209/.291/.354.

50-75:  .215/.307/.349.

76-100:  .255/.329/.401.

Hello!  Note the even more striking deterioration in effectiveness starting with pitch #76.  OK, but this game was different.  Snell was fired up and dealing.  Certainly you put your faith in him to at least face Mookie Betts in a relatively low-leverage situation when he's been so good, so far, right?  

Craig Edwards of Fangraphs addressed this question with some pitch analysis.  The pitch he got AJ Pollock out on to start the inning was a 78 MPH curveball he hung over the middle of the plate.  That pitch was a full 4 MPH lower than is average curveball velocity earlier in the game.  Pollock popped it up for an easy first out.  Snell then threw a 94 MPH FB which Austin Barnes lined into CF for the 1-out single.  94 MPH is still pretty good heat, but Snell had been sitting 96-97 MPH all game.  So, in addition to the pitch count concerns, Kevin Cash was also looking at two pitches which were considerably degraded from Snell's baseline stuff.

To summarize:  1.  At 5.1 IP, Blake Snell was past his average IP/Start.  2.  Snell is significantly less effective when facing batters for the third time in a game.  3.  Snell was close to the pitch count where his effectiveness is statistically significantly diminished.  4.  Snell pitches showed significant deterioration in quality.  Conclusion:  Kevin Cash was justified in removing Blake Snell from the game at that point.

When I started this, I intended to point out that the Dodgers had seen a whole lot of the Rays bullpen already in the series which could have the same effect of familiarity as seeing a starting pitcher 3 times in the same game.  In fact, the expanded rosters allowed the Rays to space out the use of their relievers so the Dodgers were not seeing the same ones game after game.  The Rays relievers just weren't that effective, probably mostly because the Dodgers are just a really good hitting team, so that was Kevin Cash's Conundrum: Does he stick with a SP who appears to be fading fast or does he go to a bullpen that has been on average less than effective all series?  I think reasonable people could argue both sides.