The Giants did not put up much of a fight in the first game of the final series against the Dodgers. Key Lines:
Nick Hundley C- 1 for 4, HR(10). BA= .244. Hundley reached double digits in dingers to give the Giants a short-lived 1-0 lead in the 2'nd inning.
Aramis Garcia 1B- 2 for 3, BB. BA= .321. Garcia is showing he can hit for both power and average. SSS, of course.
Madison Bumgarner LHP- 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 6 K's. ERA= 3.26. Bummy's average FB velocity over the past 4 seasons: 93.0, 91.7, 91.3, 90.8. I am not sure if that can rebound. I thought he looked to be in the Best Shape of His Life in spring training and seemed to be throwing harder, but has not looked completely healthy since returning from the hand injury. Whether to trade Bumgarner this offseason might be the biggest decision the new GM will make. The fact that it will be a new GM makes it more likely, IMO.
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The Giants are now tied for 9'th place in the Tank Derby with Toronto. They need to be top 10 to keep the draft pick if they want to sign a FA with a QO. As for the Dodgers, they trail the Rockies by 1 game for the division lead and lead the race for the 2'nd WC spot by 2 games over the Cardinals, so it's unlikely the last two games of the season will have any impact on the final standings.
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Dereck Rodriguez makes the final start of is wonderful rookie season facing Clayton Kershaw, which has to be a thrill for DRod.
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Thank you for another stellar season of blogging, Dr. B. Even though the Giants' season was pretty much a downer your takes and input put things into a well-reasoned perspective. I might be wrong, but I think the Giants are a lock for a top 10 draft pick because if, in a "worst case scenario" they run the table and finish with 75 wins, the lowest they could finish is a tie with the Mets for the 10th worst record, assuming the Mets play and lose their final two games. But if they tie the Mets the Giants would win the tie-breaker because they had the worse record last season (similar to how the Giants lost a tie-breaker for the #1 pick last season).
ReplyDeleteThanks, baseballjunkie. I appreciate you reading and commenting. Thanks for the clarification of the draft position. I don't think it makes much difference if they have the 9'th or 10'th pick, but the difference between 10 and 11 because 10 is protected and 11 is not.
DeleteIt was a QS, the HR hurt, of course, but it's more than should be expected to have to throw a shutout to get a W.
ReplyDeleteThough Bumgarner's trends (Velocity, Ks, Ws) are in the wrong direction, it's tough having to go through 2 spring trainings in 3 months and going back to the rotation possibly before ready.
Can't imagine Giants being able to sign a Bryce Harper while letting Bumgarner go: can they convince convince Harper (or whoever) that the Giants are committed to winning? Can they attract any quality FA with a QO to play for this team, with or without Bumgarner?
The tough decision facing the Giants: how (or when) to compete with a top loaded, aging team?
The Giants have 8 players over 30 years of age with guaranteed contracts through 2020 (one - Watson - has a player option in 2020).
(Three will “fall off” the payroll in 2021, leaving “just” 5 who will then be 33 or older.)
If 8 sounds like a lot for the next 2 years, the Giants played 18 this year who were 30 or over.
BaseballReference shows 7 of the 8 “starters” 30 or over. Replacing Panik with d’Arnaud makes it all 8.
Panik and Hanson are the only 2 position players under age 30 who played in 75 or more games.
Given the inevitable, irrefutable fact that performance deteriorates beyond a certain age, that the Giants ran out of gas by the end of August shouldn’t be too surprising.
If the FO chooses to try to "compete" in 2019, they will have to add some more veterans but can they attract "results" better than what they got this year?
Is it realistic to "patch" the holes when the core players need some patching themselves because of their aging wear-and-tear?
I believe a quick turnaround is possible, but will require some creativity. Trading Bumgarner may be one path, but not the only one for adding talent.
DeleteA Bumgarner trade would be devastating to the fanbase, but unfortunately it may be the most realistic way to rebuild without turning this plane for the ground and just letting it crash. Without a few moves, I just don't see how an infusion of prospects is going to hold up what will be an aging roster for the next 3-4+ years (Longoria, Posey, Belt, Crawford, etc.). If we were talking a full tear down and rebuild, I think we have a couple bullpen arms worth good prospects, along with Crawford and Bumgarner (not sure a team wants Posey's contract or Belt's injury history).
ReplyDeleteDoc, theoretically, if you were the GM what direction would you consider? Do you honestly think moving Bumgarner alone, even if it yielded 2 prospects that panned out to be all-star level players in 3 years could really prevent a very nasty tank job at the end of some of these guys' contracts?
Andy in OC
You definitely have to do more than move Bumgarner. The Giants should definitely explore the offseason market for him but insist on getting at least 2 MLB ready prospects. Just one example: What if the Phillies, who seem to think they are ready to win now and seem willing to add some major pieces to do it, were willing to give up OF Adam Haseley and RHP Enyel De Los Santos plus throw in Aaron Altherr(personal fav of mine) and maybe a lottery ticket from the lower minors? To me, that makes the Giants a lot younger, more talented and does not concede the next 3 seasons.
DeleteWhat if the D'Backs were willing to take on Evan Longoria and his contract to get relief from Zack Greinke's contract? Yes, Greinke costs more, but the net cost to the Giants is only about $10 M per season(although there is deferred money to consider).
The general idea is one teams bad contract may be another team's payroll relief. Kind of like some of the Matt Kemp trades.
...or what if they kept Bumgarner for 1 more season and still made the Longo for Greinke trade? Then let Bummy hit FA and possibly offer him a QO?
DeleteWe should have plenty of time in October to scout offseason/rebuild possibilities and do a little armchair GMing and rosterbations.
DeleteI think you've hit on the title for the 2018 season, Dr B -- 'They Didn't Put Up Much of a Fight'
ReplyDeleteAs for epic tanks: from 68-68 .500 at the end of August, the Giants are 5-20 (.200) in September!
ReplyDeleteNeed a win Sunday to stay above the "Mendoza line"!
This season ending collapse could improve over 2017's disaster by just 9 games.
Could 2019 could be worse...