As the time when teams could start signing free agents from other teams approached, 13 players received Qualifying Offers of contracts from their 2013 teams. The list included 10 position players and 3 pitchers:
Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli and Stephen Drew.
Out of that group, I would think that all 3 pitchers plus Beltran, Morales, Napoli and Drew should seriously consider accept the QO's. I would be surprised if the Giants pursue any of the FA's with QO's.
With the Giants declining Ryan Vogelsong's option, they will almost certainly make signing at least 1 FA SP a priority and possibly two. Of the pitchers on the market without QO's attached, Bronson Arroyo, Dan Haren and Phil Hughes would seem to be the most likely targets for the Giants. Arroyo is 37 yo and is looking for at least a 3 year contract so he would be under contract until age 40. He has been very durable over the course of his career, though. Arroyo is a musician who has openly expressed interest in the cultural opportunities San Francisco has to offer. Dan Haren is from California and has spent most of his career in the NL and AL West. AT&T Park or Petco Park would seem to be tailor made for a guy like Phil Hughes who might be looking to rebuild his value on a short term deal. I would think those are the most likely candidates to sign with the Giants. The Giants have also reportedly expressed interest in Tim Hudson and why not? The guy has always just killed the Giants! Other FA SP possibilities include Paul Maholm, Ricky Nolasco and maybe Josh Johnson.
Let the chase begin!
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I really think we should be looking at Matt Garza. I think he has the highest ceiling of any free agent. 7 straight years of sub 4.00 ERA. His K/BB splits look really good and he has done a good job to lower the walks the last couple years. Yes, he has missed some time but I really think in AT&T he could be a pretty dominate #3.
ReplyDeleteListen, we do not need a project pitcher. We have a great window here of Bumgarner, Cain, Pence and Posey. Let's actually put decent quality out there. I think we should either get Nolasco or Garza and then someone possibly like Phil Hughes to take Vogey's spot and hope for the best.
Our best bets are those the Dodgers are not going after with their megabucks.
ReplyDeleteI do not agree with that at all. Who cares what they do. We just need to do the best we can and if we cannot win the division then try to be the wildcard. Once in the playoffs anything can happen. Since 2004, the Yankees payroll has been over 150 million with some years going over 200 million. How many world series did they win? 1. We won 2 keeping payroll at a reasonable amount. Money does not win championships. Chemistry does. But we need to put a solid product out there. Not 3 starters and hope the best for spots 4 and 5. We need one more quality arm. I think Nolasco or Garza could be that arm.
ReplyDeleteI would hope you would agree that our best bets (ideal timing, etc) are drafting and developing our own - the Dodgers are not going after them with their megabucks.
DeleteIn that sense, who cares what they do.
Maybe we do agree.
I just don't agree to spend just because they do. We cannot always the best team every year. I would like to think we can compete for the division or wild card every year. If you cannot do that then you might as well start trading away and rebuild. I think we have a good window and it will be getting better starting mid 2014 - spring 2015 when players like Crick could be making some starts. I think if a guy like Williamson can have a strong year in AA he might be in that fold as well. Villalona is a wild card to me. I think if he can be more selective on pitching we might have something special. Guys like Villalona could start to push Posey's hand to 3B which would be great. I think it is much easier to find a 1B than a 3B.
DeleteYou don't agree to spend just because they do.
DeleteI don't agree to spend just because they do either.
I wrote, our best bets (meaning prospects we draft and develop) are those the Dodgers are not going after with their megabucks.
They are our best bets.
Maybe we agree.
David Price is still our best bet. Young guy, known quantity and salary cost for the next couple of years. Yes may cost us some top prospects but I much rather roll the dice with him than some fringe FA pitcher and get stuck with an overpay.
ReplyDeleteI think David Price is going to require a young pitcher named Crick and probably 3-4 more top quality prospects. I would say that is fine ONLY if we can get an extension from Price. 2 years of Price and losing all of our good prospects in my opinion is not worth it. We have seen pitchers like Lincecum hit a wall. Cainer even had an off year. Not worth risking our future for one player. I would almost rather go all in on M. Tanaka and lose no prospects and roll the dice.
ReplyDeleteI agree Crick will probably have to be included but I would not be concerned about having to give up 3 or 4 other top quality prospects. Their quality is only as it relates to our current farm system and historically there is a good chance of them never reaching their potential or doing so at such a later date that we may miss the current window we are in. Similar to the Bonds situation after Kent left. We never really stepped up and filled Kent's shoes and tried to do so with lesser players and missed that opportunity. If we would have signed say a Vldamir Guerrero when Kent left, it might not have been until 2010 before we make another World Series. We have three relatively young upper tier pitchers tied up NOW, need to go for the jugular and get Price IMO. If we don't, Dodgers might.
DeleteThe Dodgers with their 200 million+ payroll? Maybe I have it wrong. Maybe they will spend $300 million.
DeleteThanks for the responses everybody. Garza was traded midseason so is not eligible for a QO, so yeah, go for it. I'd be happy with Garza plus one out of Arroyo, Haren or Hughes.
ReplyDeletePersonally, would be willing to trade the farm for Price even without a pre-arranged extension. I'm just not sure the Giants have enough pieces to get it done even with Crick.
Basically, it's a bunch of prospects for 2 years of Price.
DeleteExtension = paying market price = might as well keep the prospects and paying market price for a marquee free agent (I mean, what is the difference between an extension and that?) ---- the only difference is that we want to maximize those interim 2 years. But I think trading prospects for 2 years is compounding one mistake with another one (referencing some previous trade that we all need to 'get over,' thought that is not saying that that oneparticular player is the equal of Price.).
David Price is the marquee player right now that might be available and that we can afford from a salary standpoint. If we go to the FA we are going to have to overpay like we had to for Timmy. And none of the names out there are close to the pitcher Price is. A team willing to trade a young on the right side of 30 former CY Young award winner, who also came in second once, just doesn't happen all the time. Plus, we sure Timmy is going to continue to improve and Cainer is going to bounce back? If those two have repeat years like 2013 we have one solid starter in Madbum. Price is about as close to a sure thing performance- wise as there is in terms of available pitchers. Man, must just be me but I think this is just about as big as no-brainer as there is. Doc may be right, we may not have the talent but I would give it my best shot.
DeleteYou're right if we go to the FA, we have to overpay.
DeleteAnd none is close to the pitcher Price is.
Another Anon says money does not win championships. Chemistry does.
With that school of thought, even if we could overpay to get one FA like Price, that money...that free agent will not win championships.
Chemistry does...and a solid product, meaning, with mentioning of Garza and Nolasco, I presume, solid, good, maybe a chance at very good, players, and with deep (farm) bench to draw from for plan B, plan C, etc.
I agree with BuyLowSellLower. We just have to be good enough to get to the playoffs. In a 5 or 7 game series anything can happen. I don't care if the Dodgers have Justin Verlander and his 4 clones. David Price is good. He had a 2.8 WAR last year. However, Bronson Arroyo has a 2.5 WAR. So, if you are telling me to sell the farm for that I say you are out of your mind. I would rather have Bronson Arroyo on a 2 year contract as a stop gap until Crick, Mejia, Escobar, Blackburn has a chance to be ready. I believe teams with a great window should be buyers and use free agency. The reason being when that window is over and your farm is depleted, then the next window won't come until a rebuilding period. Spend the money and overpay if you have to. Don't kill the farm. Remember, if we just squeak into the playoffs we have a chance. I think we all can admit we might have been a playoff team minus ALL of the injuries.
DeleteOver the next 2 seasons, which is how many years David Price has until he hit FA, I would be willing to bet that he will have a far higher WAR than Bronson Arroyo. Price had a down year, for him, and Arroyo had a good year. An average season for Price is going to be at least 2 WAR higher than Bronson Arroyo.
DeleteI fully agree that Price is better and most likely will be a 4+ WAR player. But if we can just get one or two guys who pitch a decent amount of quality starts that is all we need. Why trade for a guy and give up the farm when we have a problem scoring runs. That is great if we get Price to come in and pitch a bunch of 7 inning games of 3 run ball, but if we only score 2 runs it is not worth it. The Giants need quality starts and Arroyo, Garza or Nolasco are capable of doing that without trading our good chips. It would be different if we went out and got some run producers but the fact is we are usually at the back of the pack in runs scored and home runs. I would much rather take my chances with the FA's that are available.
ReplyDeleteI would rather have Price + Vogelsong/Petit/Surkamp/Kickham/Escobar than Arroyo + Nolasco. Now, it you want to go after both Price and Garza? Now you're talking!!
DeleteAs for scoring runs, this lineup is already set except for LF and the Giants are not acquiring an impact LF because basically none are available.
For those that are dismissing Price, are you willing to bet the season not only on some fringy FA that you are going to have to over pay but also on both Lincecum and Cain being back? If they pitch next year like they did last, we are done. We can say that injuries were a reason why we didn't win but our starting pitching and defense, our normal staples, were off. Price,even in an off year, would be at least the second best on the staff with legit ace pedigree. He gives us insurance in case Matt and Tim don't bounce back and if only one of them do, then we have 3 legit aces minimum. As a good hitter lengthens the line-up, Price does that to our rotation. Getting a guy like Nolasco to potentially be our number 3 or 4 guy is not going to get it done especially when he'd be hard to press to make the Dodgers rotation again by the time they are going to be done this off-season.
DeleteI don't want the Giants to spend just to spend but I do think they have to make a statement to the Dodgers that they are not going to be run out of town by the Dodgers' money. Don't throw money at just any player, but pulling off a trade for David Price and then backing it up with a Garza would not only put out the message that the Giants are ready to battle the Dodgers but would give the Giants the premier rotation in the division if not in all of baseball.
DeleteAgain, I am not sure the Giants have the pieces to get Price, but I would be more than willing to part with them if they did. 2 years is a long time in baseball these days. You keep on drafting, signing and developing on the farm and worry about 3 years from now when it arrives.
I can't stand Arroyo, Garza, or Nolasco. Arroyo especially with the ballet kick. I wouldn't worry too much about our rotation, there are always guys like Gaudin and Voggie out there that end up having a great year or few at AT&T and make way less money than any of those guys.
ReplyDeleteThe focus needs to be on offense and getting another impact bat in this lineup. Napoli might be worth giving a 3 year deal to play 1B and catch once a month. Cano would make so much sense it isn't funny but we all know that isn't gonna happen. He would probably break Bonds record of cove shots if he played here for the next 8 years. Yup, I know, it aint happenin so maybe look at some trades??
Braun should be explored as well as Billy Butler, Jay Bruce, and Alex Gordon. If Panda isn't hitting and Scutaro and Pagan aren't healthy to set the table will will need another bat to pick up the slack kind of like Melky did for the first half of the season in 2012. Dominic Brown, Adam Lind maybe, how about Andre Frickin Ethier!!! We need another bat. Start looking Sabes and chill on the pitching for a while until you can reach the bottom of the barrel.
Cano's numbers would absolutely tank if he came to SF and he knows it. He ain't coming here and for a reason!
DeleteNapoli is not a terrible idea but he's staying in the AL, bank on it!
This team's main problem is not adding another bat. It is lengthening the starting rotation. I'd be OK with putting the 5'th starter spot up for grabs among Petit, Surkamp, Kickham, Escobar and whatever dumpster dive Sabes comes up with this year, but you cannot have those guys competing for both the 4 and 5 slots!
Schmidt, Livan, Rueter, RJ, Voggie, Gaudin, even Morris was able to extend his career a while longer pitching at AT&T. None of those guys were too difficult or expensive to acquire and they all had varying degrees of success higher than expected. We don't need to spend Kyle Lohse money on Garza or clean out the farm for Price. We can wait for whoever is left out of all the names already mentioned and still have room to upgrade LF/1B or grow a pair of nuts and get Cano.
DeleteI would agree with you normally on a LH power hitters numbers going down at AT&T but Cano is one of the few LH bats that can drive the ball to both fields and when he pulls the ball he usually gets good back spin and can carry it out anywhere. He would be a beast at AT&T probably a lot like how Melky was when he was all juiced up hitting doubles everywhere and batting .380.
Cano would be a great representative as well and a player like him almost balances the star power that the Dodgers have which could bring a whole lot more attention and money potentially to the West Coast! That's why I say it makes sense on so many levels, you are getting one of the best bats in the league, a bat at one of the toughest positions to get offense out of, a face of the franchise for the next 8 years to go along with guys like Posey and Cain. Being pretty low key guys I bet they wouldn't mind someone like Cano taking away some of the spotlight.
You recreate one of the biggest rivalries in sports with star power that attracts more East Coast media attention and more money flows to the West Coast. 10 years ago it wouldn't have made as much sense but there is so much money now in TV deals and advertising that this isn't only a good baseball decision but it is a good business decision!! Cano is an investment that would pay off even if he never wins a WS here. 8 years for $250 and watch the value of the franchise double in the next 3-5 years.
Sorry Pato,
DeleteI gotta completely disagree with you on Cano. His power would tank in AT&T.
Rumors are that Ervin Santana wants $100MM and Nolasco wants $80MM. Both want 5 year deals. Rather take Price than pay that kind of money for those two.
ReplyDelete