The Giants have agreed to terms with Ryan Vogelsong on a 1 year contract with a base salary of a reported $5 M plus incentives that could take it up into the $7-8 M range. My first reaction to this news is, whytheheck didn't they just pick up his option and avoid all the drama? I mean, for a team whose owner brags about not chiseling players and making them feel wanted, well, this seems like small potatoes to me!
Alex P over on Giants Extra brings up a quote from Sabes that I didn't remember to the effect that the Giants won't make Vogey compete for a spot in the rotation. If that is true, then Sabean is likely done shopping for starting pitching this offseason and will now turn his attention to finding a LF, most likely via trade.
So, let's stand back and look at what the Giants accomplished with re-tooling the rotation. They replaced Zito with Huddy.......and that's it! They now have to hope for major bounceback seasons from 3/5's of the rotation! Man, I just don't know. That's a whole lot of hoping! Not that it won't happen, but when you couple the declines in performance with loss of velocity for Cainer, Timmy and Vogey, I have to think there's at least 1 or 2 of those that aren't coming back. Huddy is not young and he's coming off a major injury, albeit not to his arm, so he's far from a given either.
Make no mistake. We can talk about adding a bat for LF till the cows come home, but the 2014 season will be a success or failure on the performance of the starting rotation. At this point, I'm not sure how much confidence I have in that.
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I really don't like this signing one iota..After the season, Sabean went on about how the Giants will always be based on pitching and the need to seriously upgrade the starting staff and that he wouldn't be afraid to make changesby going outside the organization.....So, what does he do? Re-signs the inconsistent and downward trending Lincecum for two years......Re-sgining the woeful (last year) and perhaps broken Voglesong..The only foray outside the organization was on a 37 year old coming off a SERIOUS injury to his push off ankle....I think Cain and BUM will be top starters but also really think Sabean screwed the pooch in failing to put together a dependable rotation for the 2014 season......ANd, honestly, I really don't think the LF matters all that much anymore with a rotation like this......Hope I'm wrong big time..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Sabean getting romantic with the dog??? Never !
DeleteThe talent pool in MLB seems a little more shallow that usual. All the quality players are locked up. What's left has warts.
As long as the D-Backs stand pat also, there's a chance for second place in the West and an outside shot at one of the Wild Cards.
Here's hopin'
The talent pool always seem a bit shallow when we have had a need for it, which happened often enough in the past, even in years we stood pat, mistakenly (in hindsight, of course).
DeleteThe lesson is to never trade away a good, cheap and young prospect for a 2-month rental, especially when your next wave will not arrive in time, even if it's a nice, big wave. Sometimes, it may be one has to choose between 1 year of no flags flying forever or a few years of no flags flying forever....maybe.
Maybe this, maybe that - one thing for sure: Draft, develop and DEPLOY your prospects....because MLB always seems to be thin in its talent pool outside those quality players smart teams lock up.
You can't lock them up if you trade them away.
In any case, that's the only fersure thing, even with 'maybe this, maybe that.'
Sorry BLSL,
DeleteIf you are the defending champion, you are in first place, you need a hitter and you can get the best one on the market, you pull the trigger. End. Of. Story!
Sorry, Dr. B, we needed more than one hitter. We needed two.
DeleteIt was the same story in 2013. We needed to get at least 2 starters with Vogey out, Zito not effective at all and Lincecum struggling. So, we did the wise thing...held on to our prospects...as the defending champion, maybe not in first place, but always a chance as a wildcard....always, until you are mathematically eliminated...never over until over...flags fly forever...and we did the wise thing.
Bumgarner, Cain, Wheeler, Hudson and Lincecum would be a nice rotation.
You don't throw in the towel when you are the defending champs and are sitting in first place. Do you really think I'm an idiot and would like to see the above rotation now? Of course I would but Sabes knew exactly what he was giving up for Beltran. He said so at the time. It was an entirely defensible position and for every carper who is complaining about it now there would have been two who carped that he threw in the towel too early if he didn't make the trade.
DeleteIt was not the same situation as 2013 for a long list of reasons that I won't waste my time getting into because we've already discussed the ad-nauseum.
It's as simple as that. I am sick of the discussion. I have given you some rope here because I appreciate you reading the blog and your input, but here's fair warning. Any further carping about the Wheeler-Beltran trade by anybody will get the button hit.
This blog is about the present and the future, not about the past, other than an occasional nostalgia trip.
er the second sentence should read, "Do you really think I am an idiot and would NOT like to see the above rotation now?" Sorry for the typo.
DeleteBy the way, with Wheeler in 2013, we would have been only lacking one starter, even with Cain trying to right himself and Timmy sometimes good and sometimes bad. It would been plausible that we went after one starter.
DeleteSo, no chance of flags flying forever in 2011 washes out no chance of flags flying forever in 2013, in my view, already.
But it does handicap us going forward.
To me, this is when the ledger starts to register negative.
Dr. B, thanks for the warning.
DeleteBut if I can't speak my mind, and if you have to ban me, I will understand. You have a good blog. I have enjoyed it. Almost no personal rancor. Commenters usually state their opinions and knowing there are just opinions and there is plenty of room for diversity, people read them and move on. So, I appreciate your blog very much.
If you can tolerate the way I am, I will appreciate your kindness; if not, I thank you for the joy your blog has given me.
BLSL,
DeleteYour comments are always welcome as long as they do not continue to rehash the Wheeler-Beltran trade which I consider a closed case. It's not that you don't have a right to disagree. It's that further discussion of it is not going to shed new light on the subject and it starts to detract from the quality of the discussion.
Thank you, Dr.B.
DeleteIf I may test your patience once more, but it's human nature to rehash a lot of things. You can see it daily and on this great blog as well.
Let them say what they want (excluding personal attacks), and if what they say resonates, people respond; if not, it passes.
I hear what you are saying, but I do not think there is anything constructive to add to the Wheeler-Beltran trade discussion that has not already been covered many times over.
DeleteThe deal still bothers me, but thank you for letting me get this much off. I respect it's your blog and appreciate it very much. And thanks for the tolerance of my pet peeve. If it's OK, I will stay around. But it's enough for a morning and you have a good day.
DeleteNo worries. I like your input. I just think the Wheeler trade needs to be put to rest. No GM is perfect. Not all trades work out even if they are justified. There are reasonable arguments on both sides that have been exhaustively aired. Time to move on!
DeleteI don't think it will end up being $5M guaranteed. That said, I think the signing makes sense. I think he will come back and 1 year is not going to kill us, even at $3 to $5M. Welcome back Ryan!
ReplyDeleteIn a vacuum, Vogey as the #5 starter with Petit/Surkamp/Kickham/Escobar, especially Escobar, as the backup plans is not a terrible position to be in, but when you also have to count on significant bouncebacks for Cainer and Timmy, it gets pretty dicey. Also, that is a lot of money to pay for a 5'th starter. Gotta hope he pitches a lot better than an average #5 starter.
DeleteOne year does not kill us - if it doesn't work out.
DeleteIf it doesn't work out, what it kills is the chance to have a solid 1-5 rotation to compete.
So, it does kill something.
Even if the money $3-$5 million doesn't kill us...if it doesn't work out, that is.
So, I hope it works out.
In a vacuum... you can't breath. The thing is with Cain - its sort of like last year. If Matt Cain can't go, then you're screwed from the beginning, and what's the point in trying to fortify if you pitching is sagging. Worrying about Cain is not part of the equation for the Greybeards. They expect him to go out and be a horse, every year.
DeleteIf we are swapping Zito for Hudson, then the Dodgers are exchanging Nolasco for Haren, I guess.
DeleteMaybe it's a wash, though I thought we had more to go when the offseason began.
Shankbone,
DeleteThe Giants have a lot invested in Matt Cain for a long time. No point in worrying about him, but I still say hoping for 3/5's of your rotation to have a bounceback year is a lot to hope for. I'm not saying there were necessarily better options available, but it's still a lot to hope for.
The Giants did ok under the tough circumstance of having to fill 3/5 of their rotation. Although I would have preferred a harder thrower like Josh Johnson or Jason Hammel, both had injury issues and are no guarantees to be any better then Vogey. I'm ok with Vogey coming back! Hoping that the Giants continue to chase starting pitching in the upcoming draft by selecting 2 SP between rounds 1-5, since this draft is deep in SP. Yes, the Giants have a wave of good young pitching coming up in the low minors, but there are no guarantees they all make the show. Lets hope the Giants won't have to go the FA route again 2 years from now to fill out 3 slots in their starting rotation.
DeleteLG
Also, I agree their pitching depth after Vogey consisting of Petit, Kickham, Surkamp is ok. If they want to add to it, why not consider former Giant Jerome Williams if the Halos decide not to tender him. He could spot start and pitch out of the bullpen.
DeleteLG
Just seems like an overpay but there probably weren't a lot of other pitchers who would accept 1 year offers. Why not pay a little more and get Josh Johnson I wonder??? The biggest problem with this signing is that Voggie is going to be horrible next year and most likely won't last the season. So maybe I will get my LF afterall!! With the other options I'm not overly worried but I do think they are making the same mistake they made when they brought Huff, Pat the Bat, and even Torres back, trying to squeeze one more year out of them.
ReplyDeleteThe rotation I think will bounce back this season. MadBum is a lock and Cain is going to be better. Timmy may surprise us and figure out how to use the corners of the plate more often which would make him extremely effective. Maybe Huddie gets with him and helps him work on his control which is really the only thing he needs to be elite again. Hudson is a pro and will give it all he has knowing these could be his last 2 years and last chance for a championship. The 5th spot will work itself out, we have other options and how many teams actually have 5 stud starters anyway?
I've thought about it a little more and it might be worth it to sign Nelson Cruz or Napoli. It will suck to lose the draft pick but either of those guys could bat 4th for us putting Posey at 3 and either Pence, Belt, or Panda in the 5 hole. It stretches our lineup out and gives us a middle of the order bat for not only this year but for a few years after that which we will need if we lose Panda. I think Shankbone mentioned it, there aren't a whole lot of free agent options coming in the next few years and locking up one of these guys for hopefully 3 years only would be a huge upgrade to this offense and probably a necessary move. If we don't improve now we might not have a good opportunity for several years and with no middle of the order bats coming through our system anytime soon it would be wise.
Here's the problem besides losing your draft pick, which in this era of the CBA is really shooting yourself in the head: Napoli and Cruz are horrible defenders. Horrible. And they've played in AL hitters parks, not the big ol' country mansions that we deal with. Again: run, field, throw. NL West baseball baby! And I'm still thinking about Sabean's bizarre talk about "windows" and this weird back/forth with Vogey which nets them a possible 1.2MM savings and might cost them more than that in bonuses... but Sabean still has the quote of the year so far with the FA market hitters: "We'll see if they're big time"...
DeleteWe do the 'squeezing out one more year' more often than I like.
DeleteHopefully, we cut it down a bit...maybe not Bill 'a year or more early' Walsh like, but just a bit less (as no one is perfect and 'when to let go' is one of the hardest skills to master).
Pato,
DeleteSabean has already said they are not giving up a draft pick. I believe this was backed up by Bobby Evans. No point in bringing up Napoli and Cruz. They aren't coming here. If you are going to beat on Brian Sabean, at least beat on him for not doing something that is within the realm of the possible.
Shankbone,
Yeah, the windows comment and the back and forth on Vogey are real head scratchers. Maybe Sabes thought he had an opening on something that proved to not be there once the old Hot Stove got fired up? That's sort of what it's looking like to me.
I know Sabes said he isn't going to give up the draft pick but he also said they have a window! As this offense is constructed, if Panda leaves after this year we have nobody who can step up and fill his spot in the lineup. Susac is a possibility but can't expect him to dominate his rookie year and if the window is only 2-3 years that wouldn't quite fit in the plan would it? How could the draft pick be more important than the window? A guy like Napoli or Cruz would help us now while we are in the window while the best case scenario is the draft pick might help us in 3-4 years.
DeleteMaybe Sabes thinks the window is closing after this year. I think when Panda is gone it will leave a huge hole in this lineup that nobody seems to be bothered by right now. Think about what this lineup will look like next year without him. Is Scutaro going to move to 3rd? If Posey moves there you take away the one advantage we have offensively which is a bat at the catcher position and
Sabes already said they have no plans of moving Posey (Sabean says a lot of things and not all of them can be true so it is entirely possible that what he said about not losing the draft pick isn't etched in stone).
I think it is worthwhile looking at either Cruz or Napoli all things considered. Shankbone, you are willing to put a catcher in LF so you can't tell me that 25 HR and 90 RBI from Cruz isn't good enough to have him out there! Napoli did just fine playing 1B half the time for the world champs last year. Both of these guys could probably be had on 3 year deals so even if it costs 15 million a year for Napoli or 20 mil a year for Cruz it will still be a low risk. I bet if you asked any of our pitchers they would be willing to sacrifice a little defense for the run support these guys would generate. Think back to Ellis Burks and his bad knees or Pat Burrell and let me know if their defense wasn't good enough to justify having their bats in the lineup!
Pato, maybe not 25 HR and 90 RBI in our park...Maybe 16 HR and 80 RBI.
DeleteFor that, I will keep the pick and go for someone with 12 HR and 69 RBI and hope our reserve hitters, pitching, defense, chemistry and Bochy's management make it up.
Oh, and perhaps a mid-season pickup like Scutaro - good help doesn't have to cost you a frontline pitching prospect stolen from the Braves...or as least one 'lusted' after by Atlanta, as Jimmy Carter would say.
With everyone, a free agent or a prospect, it's always 'We will see if he is big time."
DeleteMaybe almost everyone.
Can't rule out some pre-anointed saviors, I believe we have to allow for that.
Pato,
DeleteI have followed Brian Sabean for a long time. When he says he is not going to pursue a certain type of FA, you can take it to the bank:
Cruz: Big money, costs a draft pick, PED history. He's not coming!
Napoli: Dude's hips are made of dead bone! No thank you on anything more than a 1 year contract in my book. Somebody is going to give him a multi-year deal. It might work out, but those hips could literally fall apart at any minute.
The Giants will worry about replacing Sandoval when the time comes. You may not like it, but that's how Sabes approaches those kinds of issues and he has a long record of success to back him up.
Sabes clearly does not think that the window is closing after this year. He has spoken glowingly about the pitching talent coming along and has specifically mentioned Escobar as someone who will be ready sooner than later.
Now, I am getting sick of this discussion, so start bringing something new or the button is going to be coming out.
Burks hit 31-96 and 24-96 his first full seasons in AT&T. Burrell had 18 and 51 in half a season. Cruz is probably closer to where Burks was when he came over than where Pat the Bat was in his career but the point is that RH power hitters shouldn't lose too much power hitting in this ballpark. Jeff Kent had the same if not better power numbers playing for us than he did in Houston and LA. Even Pence had the most HR of his career and second most RBI's last year so I'm not sure why you think this ballpark would affect Cruz so much. Most lefties will see their numbers decline here but RH power bats should have no problem putting up good numbers here. In the 13 years AT&T has been built we have really only had a handful of quality RH hitters and they have all done well here. Even Rich Aurelia hit 37 HR playing here! Seriously how are you basing your argument for the significant loss of power you think Cruz would suffer?
DeleteWhether Sabean said it or not, I do not believe the window is closing after this year.
DeleteNot with the recent (as in this and last year) signings of Pence, Cain, Pagan, Posey and, I think, Bumgarner.
So, that's money speaking. But you can see you from the roster talent - as long as we have the core of Posey, Cain, Bumgarner, Pence, Pagan, Lopez, Affeldt, Crawford and even Lincecum, we will always be able to contend by adding complimentary pieces and/or with additions from the expect wave.
One more time, Pato. Cruz is going to cost beaucoup bucks, costs a draft pick and has had PED issues. HE IS NOT COMING HERE!
DeleteThere - PED issues and loss of power, possibly.
DeleteI think that a bounce back year from Cain, Timmy and Vogey is reasonable to assume because they pitched a month more of innings in 2012 causing a shortened offseason. I think allowing them to get back to a more regular routine should allow them a chance to rest their arms and prepare for a good season. No problem with this deal for me.
ReplyDelete-Clint
Cain pitched really well the second half last year, so I'm thinking he is a pretty good bet to be good again, although the steady loss of velocity over the past few years is concerning. That usually does not come back, but he is also learning to be pitch with his secondary stuff at the same time.
DeleteTImmy has had two subpar years in a row, so counting on him to come back is more problematic. I did think he got physically stronger as the year went along in contrast to prior years, so that is a reason to be optimistic.
I'm not sure what to think of Vogey at this point. His whole story is so improbable that you hate to predict anything for him. I do think that the extra work in the 2012 postseason followed by a short offseason then pitching in the WBC took it's toll. The hand injury occurred just as he seemed to be righting the ship. I think it's hard to get your game stamina back after a long layoff. So yeah he could be back stronger in 2014.
It's all very possible, but the Giants need to hit on at least 2 of the 3 to make another run in my opinion. Possible, but a tall order.
I think Timmy has a way better chance than Voggie to bounce back this year! Sometimes all it takes is maturity to turn the corner as a pitcher and go from a fireballer to a dart thrower. Maddux I think would be a good comparison. Timmy still has the stuff when you look at his K rates, he just walks too many guys and leaves too many pitches over the heart of the plate. There have been plenty of good pitchers who have become great after making the adjustments halfways through their careers so I wouldn't doubt it if he is able to return to form. Unlike Zito is actually a good comparison because they both lost velocity, Timmy's secondary pitches still get swings and misses where Zito could only hope to steal a strike with the curve. If Timmy can just figure out a way to hit corners with his fastball he could be right back to Cy Young form.
DeleteI thin Pato presents a good case. But what is the back up plan?
DeleteWith zero or 1 starter trying to bounce back, we need at least one backup.
With 1 or 2 starters trying to bounce back, we need 1 or 2 backups, preferably 2.
With 2 or 3 starters trying to bounce back, we need 2 or 3. For me, I would have to have plans B, C AND D...just in case.
By the way, Plan B should be #5 starter material.
DeletePlan C should be #4 starter material.
Plan D should be #3 starter material.
I believe if we only have to activate plan D for that case that all 3 bounce back candidates are not doing well...unless, we get a 'rolling' not-doing-well. But that would be counting on luck, though. Planning should not count on luck, if we are talking about 'planning.'
I think at this stage, Surkamp is #5 material, as this would be his first substantial season.
DeleteThe same with Escobar - count him conservatively as #5 material.
Petit? Maybe #4, and if you want to be conservative, #5.
Kickham - unless he shows otherwise in spring training, #5 - that would be his first/second season and he showed In 2013 that he had to improve in some areas.
Petit is the #6 starter with the depth chart after him most likely Escobar, Berken, Surkamp, Kickham in that order. Kyle Crick could be an option as early as mid-season, but it would probably be better for him to take it a bit slower. Look for a couple more minor league deals for SP's coming into ST. The Giants are not going to spend more MLB dollars on SP's. Count on it!
DeleteIf Crick is ready (I mean ready as judged by management), I would count on him at #3 material (higher in the future of course) as a backup if he becomes an option at that point.
DeleteKids that young, a lot can change in a few months of offseason reflection and work specifically to improve what they lack.
So, maybe we see more signs of hope from Crick in spring training. We won't know a lot of what-ifs until then.
Crick finished up the AFL with a flourish. We'll have his AFL Wrap coming up soon.
DeleteGood to see that.
DeleteThe key with him, aside from the technical issues like control and improving his secondary pitches, which are best left to the coaches to monitor and work on and we fans are usually not privy to anyway, I look for signs of maturity. It's something we all have to go through and most of us can handle. It's usually a matter of time.
I noticed, in the game I attended in San Bernardino, that he lost control of the game when he got into a jam. That's youth. But no big deal really. So, I want to see mostly how he handles adversity.
I was at that game too. It did appear he got frustrated with some ball-strike calls and with the IE hitters fouling off a ton of pitches. Learning to pitch through stuff like that is indeed something he will have to learn. No way to know if that will come in 3 months or 1 season or 2 seasons or ever.
Delete