The Padres have been all but forgotten as a force in the NL West over the past 3 seasons, but they are quietly making under-the-radar moves that could make them a team to be reckoned with if everything breaks right. Yesterday they signed RHP Josh Johnson to a 1 year, $8 M deal with incentives for a possible $1.25 M more.
Johnson's story is well know. He's a guy with ace stuff and has been an ace at times. Both his health and his performance have suffered since 2010 as he has been beset with a series of injuries. Last year, he managed just 81 IP with the Blue Jays and a lot of people were probably thankful it wasn't more given his 6.20 ERA. He was reported to have a triceps strain and forearm soreness, which is often a precursor to a Tommy John Surgery announcement. He underwent a procedure this October to remove bone spurs in his elbow.
So, why would the Padres risk $8 M on a guy who had an ERA of 6.20, just had an elbow procedure and could be 1 pitch away from a year's vacation to recover from TJ surgery? It's the upside. Even though his ERA last year was over 6, his K/9 rebounded to 9.18. That, combined with getting him away from pitching in the middle of a giant billiards table, makes another ace performance thinkable, if he stays healthy.
The addition of Johnson gives the Padres a rotation of Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross and Johnson. Don't forget they also have Cory Luebke coming back from TJ surgery too. That is a high risk rotation, but also inexpensive and one with incredibly high upside.
Johnson was also reportedly interested in a 1 year make-good deal with the Giants. They and the Padres were reportedly his top choices and he reportedly took the initiative to call them first. While I have seen reports that he contacted the Giants, I have not seen any that the Giants actually made him an offer, and they were not mentioned as one of the 3 or 4 teams that Johnson was choosing from. It is possible the Giants were waiting to see if they could land Huddy before making their offer and when Johnson saw the Huddy signing, he decided he figured he had lost his leverage and decided to jump at the Padres offer before it went down. It is also possible that the Giants took a look at his history and decided they just didn't like the risk and weren't interested at any price.
I have to say that while I acknowledge Johnson's upside, after reviewing his full history, I am less optimistic that he will ever be fully healthy again. I think he is a TJ waiting to happen and we already know there is more damage in the elbow than just a UCL hanging by a thread. With Huddy on board, Johnson would have been the #5 starter and that does not seem like much of a risk. The 1 year deal is a low risk one too. On the other hand, I can easily see why Brian Sabean and the Giants may have felt like they just didn't want to mess around with it.
Time will tell if that was the right decision.
In other Hot Stove news:
The Cleveland Indians signed OF David Murphy to a 2 year/$12 M contract. Murphy is coming off a terrible season with the Rangers in 2013 but seems like a good bet to bounce back as his slash line over the last 7 years is .275/.337/.441. Murphy is strictly a LF. While his UZR's have been up and down, the eyeball test tells you he is not a great fielder. It is also not clear that his lefthanded bat would generate any power at all in the NL West.
It looks like the floodgates have opened on the migration of Cuban players to the USA as two more defections were announced yesterday, a RHP and a field-first SS.
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Johnson sure is a tempting player, and the Padres did it right by going 1 year. For a team with pitching depth, he makes a lot of sense. For a team like the Giants, I think the risk outweighs the reward. We really don't know what kind of performance we'll get from Timmy this year, and Hudson definitely has some risk attached to him as well. Could Johnson be the steal of the offseason? Sure, but you're right DrB, we really won't know much until this time next year.
ReplyDeleteWith Murphy going to Cleveland, I would add Drew Stubbs to the (short) list of possible trade targets that fit Sabean's OF needs. If you can put up with his strikeouts, he should provide CF-caliber defense and some pop against lefties (career .274/.349/.448 vs LHP). He's younger than Ruggiano, and has a much longer track record as a big leaguer. I could certainly see Sabean asking about him, and I think you could do much worse than a Blanco/Stubbs platoon.
Agree on Stubbs.
DeleteDrew Stubbs is an interesting look. The low BA and the strikeouts though... Great against lefties, and he'd be a pretty good defender.
DeleteYeah, Johnson could be the steal, but then so can Hudson. I think the odds favor Hudson a lot more than Johnson, though. As DrB makes clear in his post, his health history is pretty bad, and as well, current.
DeleteEven without that info, just looking at his career record should tell anyone that you can't rely on him to pitch a full season. That is why he got that strange clause that Shankbone mentioned on his site, where the Padres get another season added to the contract for $4M if he should pitch less than 7 games in 2014. DrB's point about his arm showing signs of TJS suggests that this clause might have been put in there because the Padres thought the same, that it's ready to go, which would then convert his contract, essentially, from the Padres viewpoint, into a $12M contract for Johnson to pitch for them in 2015 (since he would missed basically all of 2014 if he only started 6 or less games). If he can pitch at an ace level for 3-4 months that could make the contract worthwhile in case TJS hits early.
But still, pretty risky overall, thought the Pads were more of a penny pinching operations. Manager Bill Black was once a good pitcher for us, and pitching coach for the Angels in the 2002 World Series, so he's his own pitching guru, perhaps there's something about Johnson that he thinks he can work with.
I would not mind a flier on Stubbs, as long as the prospect given up is not that interesting. What I don't see is why Cleveland would trade him. He is entering into his arb years, but he has not performed well enough to get a huge contract, much like Blanco. He could maybe teach Brown how to steal effectively for us, but Cleveland might be looking to platoon Murphy with Stubbs in the OF or at worse be the 4th OF for them. Otherwise, sounds good.
You always have your teams with high risk players and one of these days, some team will come out ahead.
ReplyDeleteThat's the nature of the game, and why you can always win all the time. Realistically, you aim to be competitive as often as possible. Financially prudent teams, hoping to draw fans, instead of relying on welfare known as revenue sharing, when some teams don't even try to attract paying customers, are limited to how many of those 'high reward, high risk at low (nominal*) cost' players.
* nominally low cost. The real cost is not how you don't spend (i.e. how much you save with that 'low cost'), but how much you don't rake in when you fail to put on a competitive product.
'...why you can't win all the time.'
Deletesabey sabes did good today. he didnt go after johnson and he resigned lopez at a very good price
ReplyDeletetoday, i dont hate the dark lord
there is always tomorrow
bacci
ah, the gentler kinder bacci, going into that good night...
DeleteBlockbuster trade in the AL... Fielder for Kinsler. Wow! Is this fantasy baseball? I guess it goes to show, nothing is out of the question in the trade market.
ReplyDeletewow, who woulda thunk it
Deleteblowback from ws performance?
bacci
I suppose they will move Cabrera to first base and get a 3B. Pablo Sandoval?
DeleteI think they plan to keep the door open for Castellanos.
DeleteWe could dream of peelin' off Scherzer but this trade has to be to free up money for an extension on him. How bout Fister? I'd trade Fat Sando for Fister in a country second.
DeleteI like the trade for Detroit. Yes, Fielder will destroy Arlington, but when it counts... Javier Lopez says hello!