The Giants made a flurry of pre-Thanksgiving moves that are likely to leave a few people feeling not so thankful this Thanksgiving. I guess in this game for every unthankful person, there is a thankful one.
it all started off with the official signing of Javier Lopez which resulted in Jose Mijares being outrighted to Fresno. Mijares refused to accept the assignment and is now a free agent. That is a bit interesting because the Giants then turned right around and signed up LHP Jose De Paula who had recently been DFA'd himself by the Padres. Also coming to light was a prior signing of RHP Erik Cordier who is 28 years old and a longterm AAA pitcher with several organizations. These two signings resulted in the DFA'ing of Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero, moves that may not sit will with some Giants prospect watchers if they end up in other organizations.
Let's take a look at the lefty shuffle first because the Giants drew some attention from our favorite commentator over on Fangraphs for their priorities here. Dave Cameron was asked the following question in his chat yesterday: "Are situational lefties that rare teams need to give them 3 year deals or teams just reluctant to use younger "kids"?
Cameron: "The Giants are certainly paying prices like its a severe inflationary period. I think they could have just kept Mijares and given him Lopez' role and been fine."
No, Dave! The Giants are not overvaluing lefty specialists! You are undervaluing high leverage, late inning situations and not accounting for the fact that there are about twice as many good lefthanded hitters in the major leagues as good lefthanded pitchers. That value becomes magnified in the postseason. Here's just one situation that the Giants could well face in the 2014 postseason: Dodgers have runners on base in a tie game, late innings, Adrian Gonzalez at the plate. Would you rather have Lopez facing him or Mijares? Before you scoff at that answer, you might want to check in with Charlie Manuel or Jim Leyland and get their opinion. Brian Sabean is wearing 2 rings in no small part due to his willingness to overpay for lefty relievers. What's the value of that? Not sure Dave has a formula for that yet.
Another point that was overlooked about Mijares: MLBTR estimated his arbitration award at $2.1 M. Now, while Javier Lopez is pretty much irreplaceable, Mijares is clearly a fungible asset. There is no way the Giants were going to tender him a contract and risk that kind of payment for a fungible asset.
I have to say, when you follow kids through the minor league system, you become attached to them. We do not know as yet if this is the end of the road for Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero in the Giants organization, but it is certainly possible. Sad faces all around if it is. Monell had probably been passed by Andrew Susac on the catching depth chart after Susac's successful AFL stint. That would leave Monell at no better than 4'th behind Posey, Sanchez and Susac and possibly 5'th with Quiroz in the mix. Monell also was not likely to get much playing time in Fresno with Susac likely moving up to AAA.
Francisco Peguero was once one of the most highly regarded prospects in the Giants system regularly making BA's Giants Top 10. His development was slowed by a series of knee injuries. He's a player with a CF offensive game but who is now relegated to playing corner positions. Last year, he was clearly passed on the depth chart by Juan Perez who can play CF and play it very well. Pegs was out of options and had virtually no chance to making the 25 man roster so would have been exposed to waivers eventually anyway.
Monell and Peguero were replaced on the 40 man roster by LHP Jose De Paula and RHP Erik Cordier. De Paula was recently DFA'd by San Diego De Paula will be 26 yo this next season. He has been used mostly as a starter in the minors with his most recent stop at AA Midland where he put up a line of 4-6, 3.86, 74.2 IP, 11 BB, 57 K, GO/AO= 1.27. FB is reportedly 90-92 MPH. He has a pretty significant L-R split. It has been suggested that his future may be as a lefty specialist. He has at least 2 option years left so eases the 25 man active roster crunch for the Giants.
Erik Cordier is a 28 year old minor league journeyman most recently pitching for Indianapolis, the Pirates AAA team. He's a big dude at 6'4", 250 lbs who reportedly throws very hard, up to 100 MPH. Like many hard throwers, he has struggled with his control. His most recent line was 4-2, 4.58, 53 IP, 28 BB, 65 K, 4 Saves exclusively out of the bullpen. He has one option left. He's yet another in a long line of high velocity RHP's the Giants will try to harness for future bullpen duty.
Late word on MLBTR has the Giants nearing a contract agreement with Ryan Vogelsong which really makes a lot of sense for both sides. That would be a nice Thanksgiving present for the Vogelsong family!
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I saw Cameron's Lopez/Mijares comment live and my reply to that went unpublished. Speaking of Thanksgiving, that guy is a turkey. Maybe he's having dinner at Keith Law's house.
ReplyDeletePeguero was my guy. :-( Couldn't take a walk if his life depended on it, but still my guy.
Not sure Vogey has much left in the tank, but he was part of the 2012 group that won it all. So there's that and his intensity and I'm sure he's a great teammate that will ensure Brandon Belt doesn't sit in the wrong spot during a no-no.
Yup, it was fun to dream on Frankie Pegs.
DeleteNow that the Giants have #1-4 nailed down in the rotation, I'm OK with a competition between Vogey, Petit, Surkamp, Kickham and Escobar for #5.
DePaula is only 23, not 26
ReplyDeleteDe Paula's BD is listed at 3/4/1988 on milb.com.
DeleteSame BD on the Giants roster. 2014-1988= 26, I believe.
DeleteHe sat out 2 years ago with some visa issue. Maybe it was a b-date?
DeleteIt was. He lost a year of development to the visa and gained a year of age. Thus losing 2 years of development essentially.
DeleteSaw that chat comment and cracked up. The Giants are overpaying all over the place! Its funny because it never seems to change. Lopez isn't just some LOOGY, he's the best in the game. He has MLB tenure, he'll cost what he costs. I notice the Blue Jays didn't get the scorn when they signed (inferior) lefty Darren Oliver. That is some confirmation bias in action.
ReplyDeleteLopez gives me a warm fuzzy feeling (backed by those pesky stats) while Mijares upsets my stomach big time.
DePaula will play his year 24 season. There were some splits, but you have to love a guy who's K/BB is stellar. The Giants seem to be going all out for control lefties these days (Blach, Escobar, Mejia) While Mejia has an excellent 3.64 K/BB, Blach and Escobar are off the charts: 6.54 for Blach and 5.03 for Esky.
For the hells of it, here are the Gint minor league pitchers who are above 4 K/BB with major IP: Chris Johnson, Jose Morel, Derek Law, Kendry Flores, Yusmeiro Petit, Ty Blach, ROMO, Escobar, Cody Hall, Jean Machi, Joan Gregorio, Mason McVay, Kelvin Marte.
Several of the 2013 draft class (in early, low minors action as qualifiers) were also there: Nick Gonzo, Christian Jones, Dan Slania. And recently protected Hunter Strickland.
Lots of lefties, can't ever have enough though.
OK, De Paula's BD on both milb.com and sfgiants.com is listed at 3/4/1988 which comes out to 2014 will be his age 26 season. Right?
DeleteWonder if he got caught up in the birthday scandal. Baseball American and Baseball Reference has him born in 1990 in contrast with Milb. Got to assume Milb is the official source.
DeleteYup, Anon and I just posted that at the same time. He sat out 2012 over this. That's gotta be it - MILB and SF Giants are correct, B/R hasn't updated. He's 2 years older than originally claimed. So he's 26.
DeleteI don't have a problem with any of these moves. Javy is a no brainer, his function is almost that of a closer as he is always the guy they call upon in close games when a dangerous lefty is up. I'm starting to believe more and more in the value of late inning bullpen arms that are called upon to perform in high leverage situations. If Javy comes in and gets a big out in the 8th inning to hold the lead, that to me is even more valuable than a closer coming in to face the 6-7-8 guys in the ninth.
ReplyDeletePegs was never going to amount to anything so no big loss there. No power and no speed and no ability to take a walk doesn't translate well to him being able to hold down a major league job as a corner OF. Monell is another guy who had no real future so he wont be missed.
The problem that I see with this offseason is that Sabes is going to address every issue but the biggest and most important one which is getting another bat for either LF or 1B. Maybe he gets lucky and finds the second coming of Pat the Bat or Huffernuts but catching lightning in a bottle again isn't easy. This offense is not good enough as it is and it is frustrating that Sabes hasn't done anything yet to upgrade it. I don't mind that his offseason decisions have been influenced by prior success in the 2 years we won the WS but at the same time he needs to realize what didn't work the other 3 years which was clearly the offense.
You could argue that we basically have the same lineup we did in 2012 and look how that turned out but that was 2 years ago and you can't expect to get the same performance from half of the guys we counted on then. Aside from Posey and Pence I would argue that everyone else is a crap shoot. I hope Belt continues to develop and Pagan stays healthy and Scuts takes HGH and Pablo isn't fat but even with all of them healthy and performing we still have 3 auto outs at the bottom of the lineup. That is the best case scenario at this point.
Blanco's .330 OBP is worthless to me when he has Crawford behind him and the pitcher after that. If any of the other hitters are slumping and batting in the 6 hole that makes 4 automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup. If one of the top 5 hitters gets injured then we will basically have the same lineup that finished under .500 last year. I'm not sure why I'm the only one who seems to be concerned about this.
Here's the problem in a nutshell - there are so few FAs they are crazy expensive in dollars, draft picks and most importantly years (back end hurt) that it makes no sense to go that route. Check out the 3 year leaderboards: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-free-agent-leaderboards/ (you have to click on hitters - the link goes kabloey so I didn't want to paste it here) and... Cano - 200MM for a 2B into his late 30s? Insane. Ellsbury - 125MM plus for a CF with no power and some injuries? Insane (but the best insane option). Napoli? Not a position of need, bad defense. Peralta, McCann, Ruiz and Young are signed up. Beltran is an AL guy/not coming to PacBell. Granderson and Choo have terrible splits against lefties (speaking of Lopez!) and are basically versions of Andre Ethier (in other words, should be avoided like the plague). Which leaves.. Omar Infante.
DeleteSign that guy up. Trade Pablo. Bam.
All jokes aside, there are only 8 FAs on the market who have averaged more than 3 WAR in the past 3 years. That is extremely thin thin pickings. So instead of bitching about a FA, why don't you go look for some trade scenarios?
The biggest need for the Giants this offseason was to address the starting pitching. Dump on Blanco all you want, but you are going to have to hand out a 9 figure contract and lose a draft pick to get someone better. Oh, and his .330 OBP is not worthless. I wish you would quit saying that!
DeleteJust to be clear, the above was a response to Pato.
DeleteI'm not bitching about a free agent and actually never mentioned getting a bat via free agency. I don't argue at all with your assessment on any of those guys you mentioned above and I also think a trade is most likely the only way to make it work. Another option is to spend the money you would have spent on a FA bat to get Tanaka and then turn around and trade Timmy for a bat. This is where Sabes needs to get creative. Guys I would target first would be Butler or Gordon on KC, Jose Bautista or Colby Rasmus or even Raj Davis would be an upgrade over Blanco, I would take a flyer on Konerko or Laroche, Kelly Johnson or Matt Joyce to name a few players. I don't think any of those names are unrealistic and there are probably a dozen more at least that would make sense. Maybe Sabes still has a trick or two up his sleeve but too many offseasons I have seen him fail to address all of the issues.
DeleteAt least admit that a .330 OBP in the 7 hole with Crawford and the pitcher batting behind you kind of devalues getting on base! The whole value of OBP is because you can't score runs without first getting on base but you also can't score runs if you don't have anyone behind you who can drive you in once you are on base. I would also like you to recognize that if Blanco was capable of a .330 OBP at the leadoff spot he wouldn't have lost that job last year when we literally had no other options. Don't you think opposing pitchers know who is batting behind him when he is in the 7th hole and decide to not give him as many pitches to hit knowing they can just get Crawford and the pitcher out instead?
DeleteBut Pato thinks that Crawford is an automatic out, although his OPS+ last year was 96, which must be pretty close to league average, even though he played injured for so long. It's better than what Rajai Davis, a player Pato targets, contributed over any of the last four years; and Crawford's ®oWAR last year, as to his offense, was better than anything Davis has registered since 2010. And in these categories Blanco did better than Davis, too, even though Pato thinks (on what basis?) that Davis would be an upgrade. Colby Rasmus would have been an upgrade last year, but not in the previous two. And not only does Pato offer no bases for his opinions, he also hasn't done what Shankbone asked for, provide realistic trade scenarios.
DeleteWho cares what the trade scenarios are? Those are some of the players I would go after if I was Sabean and Davis is just one of the guys I mentioned. I offered Timmy as a trade piece and basically anyone not named Crick in the farm system should be available. News flash for you Campi, Crawford IS an automatic out.
DeleteRajai Davis is a FA and would dovetail perfectly with Blanco. That's a good low-cost suggestion. Butler? He can't really even fake 1B Pato. Gordon is always brought up by Giants fans, but why in the world would Dayton Moore trade him? Its a good contract, he's their best hitter and he's playing win-now. Bautista is expensive for what he is, but that would sure be nice, he has been hurt and only "good" the past 2 years. Rasmus has worse splits than Blanco! He's a FA after this year, maybe they would trade him. I've always thought he's a bit of a punk, and he doesn't field very well.
DeleteI'd say the single best move the Giants could do is go sign Tanaka. Ignoring the Japanese market was a mistake, and you were right about Yu Darvish Pato, you were right.
I'd try a low-cost trade with Houston, they have a crazy number of OFs who might be OK. My favorite one is Brandon Barnes. Or try and pry Trevor Plouffe from the Twins or Daniel Murphy from the Mets. Both those guys are a bit flawed defensively, but have some power/BA/position flex.
Yeah, Crawford was close to an automatic out in September, but over the rest of the season, he was actually a pretty good bet to drive in a RISP. Also, Blanco's value is not limited to his OBP. I seem to recall he was pretty good with RISP too. Crawford has some mechanical things to correct that developed in his stance and swing late last year but assuming he gets them corrected, he should still be in a upward trend in his career.
DeleteYeah, I don't get the Raj Davis love from Pato at all. The Royals are gearing up for a playoff run. They aren't going to trade Gordon or Butler. Kelly Johnson? He's kidding, right? Konerko is about done. Bautista might be available, but only for a huge haul in MLB ready prospects. Giants aren't trading Timmy and probably nobody would take him unless the Giants paid part of his $20 M salary.
Gotta up your game here, Pato!
I mention Braun and get criticized. I mention guys who are way more likely to be on Sabes radar and now I need to step up my game? You would have said the same thing if I had brought up Huff or Pat the Bat before they came and had success so why wouldn't Konerko work for a year? Kelly Johnson is streaky but no worse than Blanco. KC is known to covet pitching and has enough OF coming up that they would probably consider a Gordon for Timmy trade. Butler may be a butcher Shankbone (thanks for remembering I was pro-Darvish, I also liked Cespedes) but 1B is a spot we can afford to lose some D for a lot more O. Davis would be a good compliment for Blanco and the type of bare minimum move Sabes is known for. Rasmus may be a punk and I was at the game where he dropped the fly ball that lost the game for the Cards but he is also the type of player that could break out at any moment.
DeleteNL hitters last year:
DeleteBatting 7th: 249/307/381
Batting 8th: 238/302/346
The Avg OPS for the NL was 688 and 648 for the bottom 2 in the order. If there is a proper platoon with Blanco where he isn't exposed to lefties as much/rested so he stays out of those deep slumps, the Giants will be just fine. And I'm not touching the Crawford issue, except to say he beat those averages with a screwed up hand.
Rajai Davis has a good R/L split to play with Blanco. He hits 294/354/425 against lefties. That'll do some work. So Pato has the goods on that call, unless he's advocating full time employment. He steals bases very efficiently at this point in his career, 45SB/6CS and although not rated well by UZR, I don't think LF would be too hard for him and he can still fake CF.
DeleteNot full time, I'm trying to be realistic so having Blanco and Davis split is what I was shooting for. I didn't realize he was a free agent though which makes it even easier to acquire him. I guess my biggest concern is that someone is either going to have an injury or underperform which makes this formula for an offense vulnerable. As it is right now we would have to have everything go right in order to have a league average offense. Belt would have to improve, Panda would have to have a strong season, Scutaro would have to do HGH, and Pagan would have to stay healthy and productive at the top of the lineup. We don't have the luxury of teams like the A's or the Cards who can just pull up one of their young position players to fill in if someone goes down to injury. Blanco would be a great back up plan much like he was in 2012 but we don't have someone like Melky in front of him like we did then. I'm ok with making a deadline trade to upgrade if needed but if we don't have a stronger offense in place before getting to the deadline we will find ourselves in the same position as last year when the deadline approaches.
DeleteHey team! Check out Chris Haft's latest mailbag. Don't sleep on Brett Pill as the starting LF.
Delete....and Pato will be happy to hear that Hank Schulman is reporting that one of the reasons for the anticipated Vogey signing is it leaves time and money to pursue a LF.
Delete:)
DeleteThe mailbag where Haft brought his whuppin' stick out on the Gints for playing Frenchy?
DeleteThing with the deadline, they went back and forth last year, and decided to hold. The trend in MLB is to ask for nothing but the best prospects, no scrub trades. So they were getting calls about Escobar, Mejia, Blackburn and Crick. And maybe Susac or Williamson. That's it. Out of contention, its a tough call to go fortify.
The good news on that is that the farm system is fortified, and has more depth, whether to trade off or whatever else. I'm not crying over Joseph or Rosin, Culberson or any other recent sell-offs. I definitely didn't cry over John Bowker. The Giants have a lot of trade ammo building up. And pitching depth that's pretty much the envy of MLB despite what whiny Giants prospect hounds will try to sell. Our lefties are great.
We really need to score on an OF homegrown though, because the options get worse not better. The best 2015? Rasmus, Markakis has an option, as does Denard Span. Rasmus is the only guy below 30 in the whole class.
One reason Sandoval is valuable is he's one of only 4 FA hitters under 30 in 2015. Teams lock up talent early and often, the only reason Sandoval isn't locked... Well, we've talked about that enough.
I agree with you Pato. The Giants need backup plans for OF and for 2B/3B. Not enough depth last year. Don't be shocked if they go sign Willie Bloomquist. And before you get fired up about that the way a certain blog would... Check his stats. There are not that many hitters who can hit above 275 anymore. And the precious OBPs are falling as well...
There is nothing wrong with Belt. The problem was all the injuries, and no amount of money will cover half of any lineup from faltering, you cannot hide that much talent on the bench or in the minors.
DeleteIf you are going to credit Pato for saying some right things, then you need to acknowledge all of the things he has gotten wrong over this period of good times for Giants fans, the way he presented his vision of the future for the Giants, they were not going to win one champion for all the faults he found with the team, let alone the two they did. He has not thought much of Sabeans moves for a long while.
On Pato--or maybe, given Thanksgiving, the Birdman should be Pavo--I think Shankbone is being extra charitable maybe because of the holiday, OGC. Shank keeps supplying the facts and stats to bring Pato/Pavo into a state of argumentative decency, from his usual schoolyard method of arguing (Did so! Did not!). But we all know better, and myself, I think it better for this blog or any that Pavo joins if he gets called on his habit of flaunting an opinion, or hunch, rather than presenting a case for it.
DeleteHey there gang,
DeleteLet's try to keep the discussion on baseball rather than personalities. We prefer evidence based discussion on this site, but recognize that some people are going to come on and throw flames. If the bomb throwing becomes too pervasive and out of control, believe me, I will hit the button and have.
While I don't agree with everything Pato says and even less how he says it, he does raise some issues that are worthy of a response so they will stay as will the responses. If we disagree with Pato, let's counter him with facts rather than ganging up on his style.
Back to the issues:
DeleteLike Pato, I think we would all love to have a 25 HR bat in LF. I'm sure Brian Sabean would too. The fact is no such bat is obviously available on the market, not even Shin-Soo Choo or Jacoby Ellsbury! Maybe Nelson Cruz but he has his own warts and the PED issue to boot.
Pato says he wants Sabes to pursue a trade for a LF. Well, Pato. Sabes has said he is looking at possible trades because the FA market for OF is so weak.
The problem with both the FA and trade markets for OF's is that there are at least 10 teams out there for whom Gregor Blanco would be their best OF. Think about that for a minute! How easy is it to find an OF who is an upgrade on Gregor Blanco? The answer is it is very difficult! Pato counters that Blanco's skill set is not what he wants for his LF. He doesn't care about the defense or OBP. He just wants the dingers! While he has a point, we also have strong statistical evidence that in order to get those dingers, you have to make sacrifices in defense and OBP and the question becomes how much do you want to sacrifice?
In summary, I would say that it's not so much that Pato is wrong. It's that he presents the issue in black and white when the reality is very gray.
One thing I think about from time to time is the perception built in season versus looking from top-down full season stats. If Blanco hadn't had those crippling months in July the past 2 years, his stat line would look better, but the perception of him might be a bit different. Obviously he does struggle against lefties.
DeleteHere's an underrated (small sample) stat on Blanco: as a PH he went 421/450/632 (20 PAs)
The year before: 286/368/429 (21 PAs)
He's a tough out off the bench. Yes, those are small samples, but he has a patient approach and a little bit of pop.
I just came across one of the first profiles on Blanco when he made the team last year (Schulman) and Bobby Evans is quoted as saying "Low BA High OBP player profile we looked for" and Muelens is quoted talking about his approach at the plate - working the count. Both of those aspects of the game are bemoaned by Saber/Moneyball reading fans of the Giants as something the front office is unaware of, or dark arts to be shunned. The truth is a little more murky...
The one problem with counting HRs is they are down across all of MLB, not just the Giants. It would be nice to have a LF with the ability to hit 25. His name might just be... Andrew Susac.
This post has gotten over 40 comments and I like to think I had something to do with that (yes this is probably my 10th post helping get to 40 but hard to argue that I generate discussion!). As for my style, I do state my opinions which can turn out to be right or wrong just like everyone else. I also comment from the hip and don't take the time most of you do to look up every split stat to support my arguments.
DeleteOne thing I do bring to the table however is more of an old school scouts perspective based on the eye test and knowing this game having played it and understanding it from a players perspective as opposed to spending countless hours in front of a computer trying to statistically analyze every aspect. There is value in being able to watch a player hit or pitch and knowing based on nothing other than your instinct that they have what it takes.
Sabernerds have the hardest time understanding this because you think everything in life can be quantified and measured by statistics. No doubt there is real value in statistics and being able to measure trends and forecast but when that is your only perspective your perspective is flawed. It is impossible to measure everything by statistics while at the same, any and every argument out there can be supported by one statistic or another. This is the reason Blanco isn't the 18th highest paid OF in the league. All of us like to pretend like we know what we are talking about but the people who get paid to make these decisions like Sabean would never in their right mind pay Blanco like he is the 18th best OF in the league! That to me is more proof that any statistic you could dig up of what his actual value is.
Everyone loved Moneyball but how many championships has Billy Beane won? Scott Boras makes all of our eyes roll but his arguments for getting his clients paid are based on much of the same arguments you guys make here! Sabean has done an amazing job balancing out being a scout and also valuing statistics which has gotten him 2 world series wins in the last 4 years but those years he didn't win he squandered some of the best pitching talent in history! The years we won the world series we caught lightning in a bottle with guys like Huff, Burrell, Scuts, and Torres to name a few but "catching lightning in a bottle" is just a neat way to say we got lucky!!
The last 3-4 years where we haven't made the playoffs have been some of the most painful seasons of Giants baseball I have ever experienced. Watching our pitchers lose 2-1 games kills me. All it would have taken most of those years was one or two offseason acquisitions to give us a league average offense. Over the years I have been an advocate of guys like Cuddyer, Cespedes, and Victor Martinez all of which would have been capable of batting in the middle of our lineup.
We need another hitter in this lineup. I would obviously prefer a proven commodity which will cost either money or prospects but if Sabes can get lucky again and find another Pat the Bat or Huff than that would be great only he also runs the chance of signing another Francoeur or Torres. Nobody is a guarentee and the risk is extremely high with free agents because of the years and $$ but it is hard to build a consistent winner when you are always hoping to catch lighting in a bottle.
There is a place for both sabermetrics and for old school scouting. Both Billy Beane and Brian Sabean utilize some of each, contrary to popular belief. In fairness to Billy Beane, he has not had nearly the resources to work with that Sabean has. That is not to put Billy on a pedestal or to negate Sabean's accomplishments.
DeleteThe Giants problems in 2011 an 2013 go way beyond any single position that Brian Sabean might have failed to fill. There were injuries, post-championship distractions, short off-seasons and unexpected poor performances. IMO, it is unfair to lay the blame for those seasons on Brian Sabean and say he "squandered" them. There is a reason why only 3 teams other than the Yankees have won back-to-back championships since the 1930's. It's because it's crazy hard!
You also have to consider what is available on the market. It's easy to say Sabes should have signed better shortstops than Renteria and Tejada, but go back and look at the available alternatives.
As for Cuddyer, Cespedes and Martinez, all 3 of those guys have missed a lot of time due to injury. Martinez basically can no longer play a position and has to DH. Cespedes has flashed some power but has done little else and Cuddyer is poor fielder.
So, not I'll turn your argument against Billy Beane around. How many rings to Cuddyer, Cespedes and Martinez have between them?
As for Blanco and his pay, Pato, have you ever heard of something called free agency? Blanco hasn't gotten there yet! I'm not saying he would be the 18'th highest paid OF if he was, but I guarantee there would be a strong market for him.
BTW Pato,
DeleteI measure the success of a post more by the quality of the comments than the quantity. That's not to say the ones here are bad, but don't assume that just because you get a lot of responses to something makes it good.
I spent the morning going through the dumpster dives of Sabean. Its on my blog. Go check it out. But it wasn't in response to this, its more because I'm curious, and then the lucky label that gets thrown up. Personally I like old school scouting and traditional stats, but I ain't no dino either, I'll chip around here and there for some saber nerd stuff.
DeleteThe talk of Sabean squandering the pitching started in 2008-9, its just continued even though there is plenty of evidence showing he knows how to build mongo offenses if you just dip back to the 1997-2002 era. But resource scarcity is a bear, and that's the analysis that is going on here. In my post I look at who actually got the PAs, not who you thought was the big play. Frenchie and Orlando Cabrera didn't get nearly as many as you think. But Miggy Tejada had enough!
My problem with the Sabean rage is that the standard appears to be nothing short of absolute excellence. How many people can find that in their own life? I think we're entitled to entertaining teams as Giants fans, entitled to a shot at making the playoffs if we stretch it. You're competing with 29 other teams for scarce resources of talent with a draft system in place that gives teams control of the best years of a players life. Its hard to find these wins, on the positional player front as well as pitchers. The Giants have won more of those than they've lost.
I've enjoyed the hell out of the Brian Sabean era. Beats those that came before it hands down. Like life, it sure ain't perfect.
Oh, and DrB - in response to that Miggy Tejada panic signing - there were multiple trade options on the table including JJ Hardy, the TB SS, and some guy named Scutaro. That was a bad move, and they didn't jettison it nearly fast enough, and brought in Orlando Cabrera to boot. For one of your old white whales (I checked) Thomas Neal. Taking out Crawford's sweet D for Cabrera's horrible glove (and 46 OPS+ bat) was the final coffin on that season. Which was a dark comedy sequence of bad beats that still almost proved out.
DeleteI will agree though that Renteria was signed with very few options on the table, and the Giants had advanced metrics at the time that actually pointed to it being a good signing. Injuries do happen. And 3 run bombs against Uncle Cliffy...
The real test then will be what Blanco makes when he does hit free agency. I could also point to the fact that he washed out of KC of all places before ending up here so not like we have had control over him for his first four years keeping him from free agency. Nobody else really wanted him and my guess is he would have a really hard time breaking the starting lineup on most teams. The big bats I mentioned (Cuddyer, Cespedes, and VMart) aren't perfect but they are guys you can stick in the middle of the lineup and feel comfortable with. They take the pressure off of the rest of the lineup because they allow guys to hit in spots they are more capable of succeeding in. Blanco again has that sweet .330 OBP but he can't bat leadoff! He needs to bat 7th with Crawford and a pitcher behind him to put up that OBP so there are many other factors that are in play here besides stats and that is one of my points.
DeletePato - did you see what the 7 & 8 hitters actually hit in the NL? You're staring down at the Giants with laser focus here. The fact is, every team can't fill via home grown, it has to be a mix. There are fewer FAs than ever before. so you have to go farther afield. The Giants have done great with that in the past 5 years with Torres and Blanco. The guys you mention cost a lot of money, and even though the Gigantes are increasing payroll, they don't have an infinite amount of money, and they will bump up against the luxury tax sooner than later. There is no reason to go into the luxury tax. You play moneyball with some positions. So the Giants practice contrarian: they spend on their pen and dumpster dive their LF. There is value in them thar hills.
DeleteI'd expect a trade coming, like in 2012 when they stole Melky and Pagan. So the arb eligible guys who are getting expensive - thats where to look for the means to poach.
2 things I will say in regards to this, what was the average for 7 & 8 hitters on playoff teams and if our lineup had more power in the middle I would be more inclined to give the bottom of our lineup more slack. Since we have to rely on manufacturing runs throughout the lineup it magnifies our deficiencies at the bottom. That's why I would like to stretch it out giving us one more bat that can drive in runs and cause some damage out of the 7 spot.
DeleteIt's just really ironic that Pato is here envying playoff teams while the team he claims to root for has two championship trophys to show off. Pato, I might let you get away with some envy for what the Cardinals have accomplished and maybe for the way Boston came roaring back from payroll hell, but don't talk to me about anyone else until the Giants have proven their days of contention are over with more than one season of finishing out of the postseason money.
DeleteReally, team! All this talk about LF is really a sideshow. The 2014 season will succeed or fail on the performance of the starting rotation. In that regard, I have to say I am not convinced Sabes did enough. It's really come down to replacing Zito with Huddy and hoping everybody else has a bounceback season, except Bumgarner who doesn't need a bounceback season.
DeleteThe Cards had Pete Kozma... And they did something about it. Sox had Wil Middlebrooks as their only sub-100 OPS+ player. Will they do anything?
DeleteI agree with the concept of stretching things out, both our lineup and our rotation. If you sign Tanaka, you have a #2 who slots into #3 and knocks everybody else down a slot. That is stretching something out in a big big way. I don't see easy slot-ins on the offensive side that do the same.
I know you're just talking in general terms here, but Cespedes only put up a 105 OPS+ and hit 240. I still like players like him because he swings hard and can influence games (and he was one of the only A's to show up in the playoffs). Cuddyer can hit, no doubt, but he gave it all back in the defensive end. And V-Mart is an AL guy, you gotta run-field-throw to play in the NL West baby!
I guess with the F/G crowd and some sabers in general, the obsession with getting value on the contract is over the top, and they lose sight of the forest/trees. We've been through this lefty stuff back in 2011 offseason, and even with the results proving out in 2012, there is still no love for the strategy. You want to go to war with Dan Runzler? I remember some of the absolute scrubs being banded about as acceptable - George Sherill was a favorite, the Japanese lefty who didn't even pitch because he was hurt... The fact is, there just aren't that many lefties available. Its supply and demand. And that goes back to the ideal saber world where you have the excel open and the WAR calculated, "Well I wouldn't pay that, it doesn't fit the model". It cracks me up though, because several teams have had their hopes dashed huge in no small part because they didn't address their pen. Detroit being the big example this year, with David Ortiz wrecking havoc and bearded cops celebrating in Fenway's pen.
ReplyDeleteI'm not too cracked up about Frankie Peggs. I thought he'd be like a Marte, they had similar profiles and stats, but he never filled in any power, and these knee injuries took away his CF profile, which might have been fleeting anyway. Juan Perez makes him completely irrelevant, because he can play CF well and has some pop. The Giants have to further clean out their logjam of AAAA/4th OF types, while hoping one of them figures something out. I've always thought Kieschnick's power looked better than Pegg's tools, but Roger K might be next on the chopping block.
Hey..Happy Thanksgiving all....OK, quickly on the GIants...Fan Graphs and Cameron be damned, I'm fine with the LOpez signing...He's the best in the game at what he does and if theGi8ants are a late season team, it's more than worth it......KInda like Monell and Peguerro, but MOnell had no future with the Giants and proba ly no future in the NL....I might have held on to Peguerro for one more season to see what he could do this year but, honestly, I'm not expecting much,,,,,,As for the two pitchers, really don't know enougth to comment althout I take MITCH LIVELY over this 28 year old....
ReplyDeleteOK, the big one...VOGEY..I'm thankfull for what Vogey has done for the Giants but if he is who the Giants are committing to as a 5th starter I think SABEAN is making a HORRENDOUS MISTAKE...And I have been and am still as Pro Sabean as anybody......Vogey was horrible before and after his injury....Significant loss of velocity and control.....Looks done to me...Looks like a heart signing......IF TRUE, .I'm afraid it's a signing that could derail the Giants quest for a Western crown...Just saying how I feel....ANd I hope to God I'm wrong!!
SteveVA
I am assuming Vogey will come cheap enough that his spot in the rotation won't be guaranteed. With Petit, Surkamp, Kickham and last but not least, Escobar as backup plans, I'm OK with that bunch competing for the #5 role.
DeleteI would rather take a flyer on Brad Penny again than have Voggie back! He is only 35 and just took last year off to rest so should be tip top and ready to sign at league minimum!
DeleteThe one thing we don't know about Vogey is the terms. If he has to compete for the 5th spot and might be sent to long man if they sign somebody else, then its a good placeholder. As the 5th starter, its a bit more risky, because there are some good options out there. But we don't know what the demands are in money (sort of important) and years (very important). All the options have warts though, so maybe going with the warts you know is the goods.
DeleteI have to think that Sabean shouting out Edwin Escobar is a big deal.
Steve, pro Sabean is not the same as worshipping HIM as an infallible divinity.
DeletePro Sabean is seeing him as better than average, succeeding more (or far more) than failing.
It's OK to say you think it could be a HORRENDOUS MISTAKE.
None of us knows anyways. We are all just guessing at the future.
To me, we need a good #3 right now.
Sorry to ruin everybody's Thanksgiving, everybody. Wow! 30 comments! Great to see everybody is mid-season form here.
ReplyDeleteInteresting timing on these moves... I didn't see them coming, although Monell/Peguero didn't have much of a future in the orange and black. I wouldn't be shocked to see old Roger K headed that way either. Too many Fresno outfielders. Frankie just didn't do much for me, but I will say the guy never really got a fair shake. 46 PA? That's not even a cup of coffee. Everyone got so caught up in the Frankie/Roger hype, they missed little Juan Perez overachieving onto our fields and into our hearts.
ReplyDeleteDe Paula was a ST invite last year, which is pretty exciting for a 23 year old... not so exciting for a 25 year old though. Wonder if he'll be a starter or reliever next season. There's a short clip of Cordier (how do you pronounce that?) warming up in the 2011 AFL. Let's just say his fastball had some nice... life... The Giants are sure after those big fastballs. Do they miss B-Willy that much, or are they onto something? I've missed that big velocity from our pen that past couple years, so it'd sure be fun to see some of these guys break through. Happy Thanksgiving!
My daughter almost starts crying whenever she sees Juan Perez. She thinks he looks so young and after his first MLB game when he said he was going to call his mother she thought it was very cute. Now she just wants to see him succeed so bad.
DeleteSounds like De Paula's future is most likely as a lefty specialist.
Seems like the Giants are just throwing high velocity guys with control issues at the wall and hoping 1 or 2 stick.
The 1st article I read about Perez was back in Nov 28 2010 issue of BA by Baggs.. Thought to myself ok sleeper alert so I kept that issue for some reason. Interesting background moving to the US in 2001, apprenticed for his fathers plumbing company, and was teammates with Danny Almonte the overaged little league WS hero at Western Ok JC. Felipe Alou said, after getting on him in Spring Training, that if Perez cuts down on hitting too many fly balls, he reminds him of "a Craig Biggio type of player". Alou also said, "The more you play, the more you learn about yourself. I believe this guy can be almost as good as Peguero if they let him play everyday. I really like him. He's tough inside, a tough competitor".
ReplyDeleteI guess you can say that Perez has been a favorite of mine also. I think what makes baseball a great game and interesting is that good players come in all sizes and backgrounds.
LG
Good points. I remember being excited that Perez had hit so many bombs at Western Ok JC. Its interesting that the Giants have chosen Perez over Alou's boy Peguero. I think it has to do a lot with showing up when you have the chance. Injuries have really killed Peguero's chances and development. Blanco showed some serious game, and he's one of my favorites as well.
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