The Giants have reportedly agreed to terms with veteran RHP Tim Hudson on a contract worth $23 M over 2 years. I am not going to go into a detailed statistical analysis of Hudson's track record. We all know who and what he is. It also seems pointless to me to spend any time at all on whether this is an overpay or not. The Giants can clearly afford whatever they paid for him and can afford to sign whoever else they deem necessary to the success of the team. I will just give a brief rundown of the positives and possible negatives of the deal:
Positives:
1. We all know what a consistent competitor Huddy is. He's the guy you hate for your team to face, but in the back of your mind you are wishing like hell he was on your team.
2. It's for 2 years. A 3 year contract starts to block the expected arrival of homegrown pitching talent in 2016. 2 years is perfect from that standpoint and from a risk mitigation standpoint.
3. The contract is small enough that is likely leaves the door open to at least one more significant offseason acquisition be that another SP or somebody to upgrade LF.
Risks:
1. Age. Huddy is 38 years old so his performance could start a rapid decline at any time. This risk is mitigated by the relatively short contract and by his keeping himself in excellent shape.
2. Injury. He's coming off a severe ankle fracture and surgery. This should not be a problem. He has had the pins removed and appears to be on a timetable for full recovery by the start of Spring Training. It's not his arm. This should not affect his pitching at all. He has history of TJ. Recurrent UCL tears are not unheard of, but his risk is likely no higher than any other pitcher out there.
Solid signing! Tim Hudson is a guy who I have wished was a Giant many times for a long time. No contract is risk free, but this one seems to be about as low risk as you are going to get in the current climate of MLB.
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A slight overpay, by about the same $2-$4 million that I think was given another Tim. That's probably the climate, as you have indicated, though.
ReplyDeleteI'm liking the offseason so far, and assume the FO will find some decent pop to play LF/1B or maybe split some time with Posey. I really like the flexibility in that situation - a lot like Red Sox have with their SS/3B situation: could go into the season with no further additions and be okay with it, but being able to find a few of those low-risk, high-reward veterans to supplement the roster.
-Seacoast
I agree, a very positive signing. I can only imagine how his persona will impact Cainer, Madbum and Timmy!
ReplyDeleteIf as expected another starter is signed the rotation barring injuries should be more then adequate to compete against the Dodgers etal.
Richard in Winnipeg
Yeah, he will fit right in with Cainer and Bumgarner (plus Vogelsong if he is re-signed) and his experience dealing with declining velocity while keeping his performances remarkably constant over his career, even after his TJS, is one of the intangible benefits that he could pass on to Timmy.
DeleteWe always hear that hitters won't come to PacBell. Well, Hudson had 9 offers, and its possible the A's offered more moneys. He chose the Giants for the park, the crowd and evaluating his best chance to get past the first round of the postseason. For all those saber dorks who say the playoffs are a crapshoot, what does that statement mean? A player wanted the best chance to get past the first round of the postseason, and he chose Los Gigantes. Could there possibly be something behind that? Besides a crapshoot? Like... a strategy?
ReplyDeleteI love this signing. Hudson is a competitor, his stuff plays way above his stats, he keeps the ball in the park way better than Bronson Arroyo, and like Arroyo he is a quick worker, 2nd least pitches per AB to Arroyo. While the Giants might be in the mix for Arroyo as well, he has multiple suitors, and the Gigantes just set the market some more. We'll see how it shakes out, I imagine a couple teams will overpay and the ones that wait it out will get a bargain. I like the bird in the hand at this point, because there just isn't enough starting pitching to go around.
The Giants have shown good discipline on # of years on the contract. This is yet another example of that. Rumors are they aren't budging on Nolasco, he wants 4 years and they're holding to 3. They may be holding off to see how Tanaka shapes up once the new NPL agreement gets done.
I like all I hear about him being a mentor. While much of the focus is on Timmy, a guy like that helps Cain and Bumgarner too. Plus, he will be there in 2015, when we definitely should see the first waive of new guys. You don't sign a guy because of that, but definite plus if he otherwise fits in.
ReplyDeleteI know I'm living in a pipe dream, but I'd really like the Gmen to sign Tanaka. I realize the cost, but it sends a statement. Plus, havign Cain, Bumgarner and Tanaka as your first three, is damn good and competes with anyone (including the Doyers). You'd then have a 4/5 that is probably better than most and maybe even better than some 2/3 types. That is a staff that can get us back to a deep run in the playoffs, and doesn't cost a draft pick. With the pitching talent we have, we'd be set for years.
PiLamBear
Money issue aside, PiLamBear, me like your (Take that, you Bums*) top 3 starter comment.
DeleteThat, plus the return of our stout defense, will be a nice start to a happier 2014.
* You got a billionaire owner? We have one too in our ownership group!
Reminds me too of the Randy Johnson signing, bringing in a veteran to show the young guys how it's done. Great signing I think.
ReplyDeleteThere is SOME truth to this post, but the "young guys" all have multiple rings on their mantle while the "veteran" has none.
DeleteNot sure our core starters (Bum, Cain, Timmeh) fall into that category any more.
I think Tim is still on the cusp of making the transition, and having Huddy there to help guide him through the final steps - since he's gone through that transition fine long ago - will be a big help towards Lincecum delivering on his big contract.
DeleteI always hated Tim Hudson....Hated seeing his mug on the mound facing the Giants...Hated his pitching, his confidence, his competitiveness for the Braves...And why I love this signing...Of course there is some risk, but look at what he has done the last 3-4 years and the last two months before the injury....Couldn't care less about the money...And two years is perfect...Now the question is who will they sign as the 5th starter---Vogey? Josh Johnson? Hammel? Hughes?.I think Arroyo, Nolasco and Haren may have been priced out.....We'll see.....
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
+1
DeleteThis was a shocker yesterday hearing this, but a great one. For all the crap that we hear about hitters not coming here, the flip side of that coin is that plenty of pitchers want in on the action. Guess that's why losing Wheeler was hard pill to swallow, he wanted to be a Giant and learned that the Belle was going to be great for his career as a home ballpark. Josh Johnson wants to resurrect his career here. I say give the $$ to Lopez and keep that guy here, when you watched the playoffs it was full of bullpen guys that just dominated per usual. Affeldt worries me so I want Lopez to stay. Petit deserves his shot after that gem of a near perfect game and once again, I think our ballpark gives him chance to excel.
ReplyDeleteAs per Panda, think he is finally growing up a bit and HUGE that he spent his own $$ to invest in his brother to go to culinary school and now be his full time cook. You won't find another gem 3rd baseman in our system that can swat balls that are at your shoulders and play solid defense (when slim-ish). Love Arias, but his bat is lots more tame than Panda. If we lose Panda, that's lots of offense gone.
i was right about zito, and i will be proven right about hudson
ReplyDeletethis will be a bust
how can i ever get you all back from the dark side?
darth sabean has used his jedi powers to bewitch you all
terrible signing
watch for his new stance come day one of st
as for fat boy....giants begged him to come to strength and training camp....he doesnt need a chef, he needs a lifestyle change
fatboy is done
giants need to create a new animal to take his place
bacci
Bacci, we're too busy arguing it up on fangraphs to worry about no jedi powers.
DeleteFat boy could be done, that is the truth. And the fact he's in VZ where he can't show up quick to a physical for a trade is bad mojo. The Giants should be shopping him hard for a big upgrade, because the odds aren't good for a big season.
I think you're wrong about Hudson though.
No Bacci, you are the one who needs to come to the light.
DeleteThis is just his same old trolling shtick: Sabean stinks. I can't think of anybody who wasn't right about Zito except for Magowan. Everyone knew that deal sucked from day one, that it would be very hard for Zito to deliver on the contract.
DeleteHudson sounds loaded for bear, lock and loaded, I look forward to him wearing the orange and black and proving doubters wrong.
I don't think Panda is done. I'm not happy he's in VZ, but I understand too, his little girl is down there and he don't see as much of her anymore because of the divorce. Staying up here would mean he would not have seen her much at all this year.
He knows what is at stake. We all saw what he did for the 2011 season. I don't expect an exact repeat, but his agent has to be texting and calling him everyday to remind him to keep his eye on the ball, slim down, and he gets a 8-9 figure contract, he and his great grandchildren would be set for life with that money. Having his brother there to be his conscience has to help tremendously, because probably nobody else in his life is going to tell him to skip that sundae. And he committed to having his brother as his chef, it starts with admitting you have a problem, then important to have support from friends and family. He won't be 2011 good, but he should be plenty good enough in 2014 that a trade would not equal that production.
I'm more worried about Posey's second half collapse, his return to awesomeness is more critical to the Giants return to the playoffs than Sandoval. I think that will happen, but he's been pretty automatic his whole career, except for his first month in the majors, that it was shocking to see how badly he did in the second half. The good news there was that it was mostly his power that was missing, which seems to be a conditioning problem, needing to build up stamina.
On a completely unrelated point; I have spent the last couple of hours listening to KNBR podcasts with comments from Tom T, Alex P, Bobbt Evans, JT Snow, and also TIm Hudson about his signing. Great stuff.
ReplyDeleteThat said I happened to listen to Ray Woodson's interview with Christian Arroyo from last week.
OMG, this kid is so mature; it almost unbelieveable.
I dont have a daughter, but if I did; he is authorized to keep her out late.
Very impressive.
Richard in Winnipeg
It's very early in his career, but gotta be excited about Christian Arroyo.
DeleteYeah, I've been thinking that Arroyo's maturity reminds me a lot of Posey. I'm hoping that he's part of the next wave of young leaders among position players as Posey would be into his 30's by then. Thanks for sharing Richard!
DeleteBacci,
ReplyDeletePutting a 2 year deal in the same category as Zito is absurd.
As for Panda, I'm not sure what the trade market is for him, but I sure would like to see him get on track and build back some of his stock. There are plenty of teams who will bite on him for the same reason teams love to sign former postseason heroes (check Cody Ross & Juan Uribe). Giants aren't that team (peep Edgar Renteria).
Lastly, I know Tanaka will be a boat load of cash, but I'm sure an organization as large as a profession sports franchise has some way of projecting earnings; point being that outside of New York, San Francisco is the perfect place to market a great Asian player. Even Tsuyoshi Shinjo got major love by the bay for crying out loud! That's the long way of saying that an "overpay" for Lincecum only takes into consideration his WAR and declining numbers, but his value off the field to the Giants image is HUGE. Tanaka would have an instant effect and put the Giants even further into the public eye. Perfect time for this signing as baseball continues to go global!
My take is that the Giants are not afraid of spending the money, but rather the problem is the blind auction where the Yankees and Dodgers might throw out a crazy bid and win the deal and the fact that we, right now, don't know when or if another posting agreement will be arrived at, and you know Sabean, he don't wait for nobody. Sabean wants to sign someone before the winter meeting at the start of December, and Tanaka's situation probably won't be settled until probably X-mas, if not past New Years.
DeleteHowever, they also like to do things stealthily. So it would not surprise me if they sign someone who is not automatically considered the #5 starter, someone who would need to earn the job in spring, like Vogelsong, which would leave the door open for them to pursue Tanaka, as he would also be competing for a job as well, no matter how much he signs for. I think the Giants remember the Japanese media impact of Shinjo, seen it with Godzilla with Yankees, Ichiro with Mariners, SF has a Japantown, they have a lot of ethnic days at AT&T, so they understand that cultural factor in marketing. And most acknowledge that Baer is a huge marketing person, for example, check out all the corporate naming rights at the ballpark. So I would keep this in mind should the Giants sign someone who they say will be competing with our internal options (Petit, Kickham, Surkamp, Escobar), they could still try to swoop in.
Still, it is going to be hard, they had a chance with the top three bidder scenario, and hence their interest when that was being discussed, but now that they probably will have to outbid both NYY and LAD, that fee bid will probably have to shock and awe to win, crazy numbers. Hopefully they at least submit what they think is fair and see how it goes, you never know when fear of a situation might lead everyone else to not bother or to bid low with a "just in case you win" bid, and you sneak in as the winner. Kind of like how some of the pretty models talk about their non-existent love life, because guys are just too afraid to make the approach.
Now that Timmys are signed, I think the Giants should feel pretty good about their pitching staff - 1-4 locked down and free to wait out the market for deals or enter the trash-heap versus internal options roulette, with an eye towards a mid-season acquisition if someone stinks it up. But I think that also frees them to put in a bid on Tanaka at what they want to spend and what they value him at, and ignore the Yankees or Dodgers. I was surprised when Texas won Darvish on only a 52 mil bid.
DeleteWe can hope they lie in the weeds and make an effort. Getting Tanaka on our hip and not on the Dodgers is the single most important move we could make in the offseason. Which so far is going great guns.
DeleteSabes said they have moved on from Tanaka. When he says something like that, you can almost always take it to the bank. He means it!
DeleteTrue that. Sabean talks, you best listen!
DeleteSo many dreamers on here about Tanaka, we've basically got our starters down and you think they'd agree to just the posting fee alone?? Sabes has already said its not going to happen and I agree. Yanks and others need him way more than we do and now the whole posting system is at jeopardy with smaller market teams pissed they have no chance at guys like this.
ReplyDeleteAs for Panda, I think many of you are missing the point with him. Look at who has gotten big contracts with us so far, Posey & Pence are the most recent and they proved beyond a doubt, that 1st they are MEN, who don't need to be babysat and can deliver a healthy body to withstand the rigors of 162 games. That message has gotten through to Panda, he even said he wants to prove to Giants that they don't need to worry anymore about babysitting him in AZ.
His bro as chef already showed great promise when most of us wrote him off towards end of season and slowly we started to see that he was moving better and his uni was getting just a bit baggier as he started to shed some lbs. Being in Venezuela is good for his psyche and he's proving to himself that this is what MEN do in the offseason, besides downing plates of arepas.
How did that message get through? He said he'd be in shape in 2 years, and he's trying his best (avoiding professional instruction that has a track record of success with him personally in AZ btw). He isn't even close to being a man, he's a man-child, and a very immature one at that. Now he has some amazing baseball skills, and some amazing quick-twitch talent. But talent will fade if you don't apply yourself. And he has shown that side way more than any type of professionalism.
DeletePablo is not in the Giants long term plans. They'll trade him if they get a good offer (they'll get low-balled most likely), they will QO him if he has a good season, and they'll offer him a 3 year deal with incentives, which he won't take. The only way to wake him up, and make him behave like MEN do, is to trade him now. That would be a slap in the face wakeup call. This dash off to VZ is a bunch of silliness.
Shank, your Panda bias is showing. Not saying your predictions are wrong, but the vitriol makes your Panda sermons hard to swallow. You're clearly fed up with him, and project tons of stuff into his psyche. Let Sandoval have his VZ. Past Fat camps may have slimmed the Panda short term, but they've hardly worked long term have they? As Antillunda points out he seemed to slim on his own work and on his own plan during he season. But you want another round with American professionals, trying to slim Sandoval down and failing to change his lifestyle (and dare I say it psyche). The Giants organization has been "babying" him - setting up special day camps, but then "letting" Pablo be Panda. I'm sure he gets some mixed messages from the Giants - slim down, but don't change. Lose weight, not power. Don't hack, hack. Be a professional, be the the Kung Fu Panda.
DeleteFair enough Kennv. For the record I'm not advocating some handsome rob 210 and ripped Panda, but when you hurt your team defensively, can't run the bases, I will get fed up. I'll tolerate hijinx, but I won't tolerate bad fundamentals. And that's what he was showing last year, and he was a big reason for the complete fall on our face. Pitching was obviously the biggest issue, but I do have some sources and they say the whole Giants locker room is fed up. So it goes. The people who think he's being discriminated against because of fat bias are a bit crazy if you ask me, you have to have standards for fielding and baserunning. The hitting... You can't change him, but the power potential is flashed not filled in.
DeleteBut mainly I started to be done with him when he said he would be in shape in time for free agency. And then the defense. I'll tolerate some dead ball era offense, but not sloppy d. I'm burning myself out on Panda rants though, and I doubt they'll get any good offers for him, so it'll be time to root for our favorite switch hitting hacker come spring. Thanks for the feedback.