Friday, March 16, 2012

Spring Training Update: Game Wrap Giants 3 Cubs 2

The Giants played, well, a pretty typical Giants game today edging the Cubbies 3-2. Key LInes:

Buster Posey- 1 for 2, BB. BA= .182. Hopefully Buster is starting to get his timing and swing down. He has a HR, single and BB in what, his last 5 PA's?

Emmanuel Burriss- 2 for 2, 2B, SB(4), CS. BA= .414. The GIants appear to want Burriss to win a job this spring. So far, he has done everything he could to make them happy. Cut down day is going to get mighty interesting!

Eric Surkamp- 4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 4.78. Surkamp got roughed up a bit in his first spring start, but has been solid since with 11 K's against just 2 BB with 3 ER in 10 IP. Very encouraging that the Giants have a solid 6'th starter option in the wings.

Jeremy Affeldt- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 1.50. Affeldt got hit a bit in his first 2 appearances of the spring but has been solid in his last 4 outings.

Clay Hensley- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 2.25. Hensley is a lock for the last bullpen slot. I have a feeling he is going to play a big role in the Giants' success this year.

The Giants play a split squad pair tomorrow with Tim Lincecum facing the A's in Scottsdale in the afternoon and Brian Burres facing the Dodgers at their complex in the evening.

There are some nice interesting Fanposts over on McCovey Chronicles by Shankbone on draft eligible college players and another about a recent Fangraphs chat by Mike Newman in which "Nivra" asked a whole lot of questions about Giants prospects which Newman obviously did not know much about. He failed to scout Augusta last year because a buddy told him there were no prospects there.

There's a nice article in BA about international signings by NL West teams. Good to read that the Giants are still active on that front. Speedy CF Carlos Valdez($325 K) and power hitting 3B Anthony Gomez($200 K) sound interesting. Royel Astacio($150 K) also got a mention. We all know about Adalberto Mejia($350 K), but I had not heard of RHP Keury Mella($275 K) who is 6'2", 190 lbs and throws 92-93 MPH.

Around the League: Chase Utley(Phillies) has yet to play in a game this spring and continues to have severe arthritis issues of the knees.

David Wright(Mets) seems to have a torn abdominal muscle. He missed time last year with those can take forever to heal. I'd stay away from him in fantasy drafts.

Scott Baker(Twins) is reportedly having a recurrence of elbow issues that sidelined him for much of the second half last year.

Sleeper Alert: Garrett Richards struck out 6 batters in 4 innings for the Angels today. He's trying to win the 5'th starter spot in the Angels rotation. Richards was another of the high velocity-low walk pitchers in the recent Fangraphs article about projecting future success. Pitching in front of the Angels' lineup could result in a nice number in the W column as well as the other stat categories, even from a #5 starter!

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Spring Training Update: Game Wrap Giants 7 Mariners 5

The Giants got a solid start from Barry Zito and big games from The Brandons in a win over the Mariners in a night game in Peoria. Key Lines:

Freddy Sanchez- 2 for 4. BA- .286. Freddy's bat seems to be ready, but the shoulder continues to be balky.

Brandon Belt- 3 for 5, 2B. BA= .375. Belt got the start at 1B. His double was off the LHP Kuo, although Kuo seems to have completely lost it.

Brandon Crawford- 1 for 2, HR(1), BB. BA= .400. Crawford went deep on Kuo also.

Barry Zito- 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 4.00. Not that the Mariners are going to put a scare in many pitchers, but if Zito can just pitch like this all year and maybe rack up some QS's, it would be a huge boost to the Giants chances of making it back to the playoffs.

Heath Hembree- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save. ERA= 1.80. It doesn't count, but is this the first of many Saves for Hembree with the Giants?

George Sherrill(Seattle)- 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 9.00. The Giants should have signed Sherrill instead of wasting their money on Afflelt! Yeah, I don't think so!

Eric Surkamp gets to show off what he has again tomorrow against the Cubs and Matt Garza. Buster Posey is expected to catch.

Fantasy Focus: Rotation on a Budget

Right now, I'm obsessed with fantasy auction values and how to build a roster on a budget. I've always believed in having strong pitching in fantasy baseball. Fortunately, I've been more successful in finding good pitchers than good hitters. One strategy I have used with quite a bit of success is to fill my bench with starting pitchers and use it as a rotation extender. With 5 starters, 5 bench spots and 2 P spots, I have to potential to have a 12 man pitching rotation. Since there are no innings limits in H2H and a staff of strikeout pitchers, I can pretty much guarantee a W in the K column every week. I let W's, ERA and WHIP take care of themselves after that. It's hard to beat a small rotation that has a great week and runs up and ERA of under 3. On the other hand, with so many innings, on bad start does not sink your week. You have the innings to buffer it.

With $260 to spend on a 26 man roster including bench players, you could budget as much as $120 on those 12 pitchers, but then you would probably get badly outbid on the offensive side of the ledger and would not have anything left for closers/Saves. So, the challenge here is to build a 12 man rotation while not spending more than $10 on any 1 pitcher. What kind of a rotation would you end up with and would it be competitive? I'll use the Average Yahoo Price as my cost and last year's stat line as my results just to keep it quick and dirty.

1. Brandon Beachy, ATL. $8.7 141.2 IP, 7 W, 169 K, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP Should be a starter all year which would add to the K and W totals.

2. Jordan Zimmerman, Wash. $6.9. 161.1 IP, 8 W, 124 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. No innings limit this year.

3 Cory Luebke, SD. $6.4. 139.2 IP, 6 W, 154 K's, 3.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Innings should rise here too.

4. Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle. $5.4. 188.1 IP, 10 W, 180 K, 4.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP. Ubaldo's velocity is reportedly looking good. Still has the strong K/9. Good candidate for bounceback and a great risk at this price.

5. Ervin Santana, LAA. $3.3. 228.2 IP, 11 W, 178 K, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP. Very underrated fantasy pitcher. I got him late in last year's draft and he was solid all year. Even gave me a no-no one week! At $3.3 he's a huge bargain.

6. Derek Holland, Tex. $2.2. 198 IP, 16 W, 162 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.35 WHIP. I don't usually chase Wins, but at $2.2, it's worth the risk and he can be tremendous in any given week.

7. Bud Norris, HOU. $1.3. 186 IP, 176 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP. Great source of K's and learning to control his great stuff.

8. Scott Baker, Min. $1.2. 134.2 IP, 8 W, 123 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Very solid numbers from an established pitcher. Appears to be healthy and should be good for more IP.

9. Henderson Alvarez, TOR. $1.2. 63.2 IP, 1 W, 40 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. There was a very convincing article in Fangraphs about a month ago on how high velocity + low walk rates = pitching success. Alvarez has extreme groundball rates to boot. He won't be a K stud, but but when you carry 12 starters, you don't necessarily need every one to have a high K rate. Based on that article, I'll take a chance on a $1-2 investment for my 9'th starter.

10. Juan Nicasio, Col. $-. 71.2 IP, 4 W, 58 K, 4.14 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Nicasio was the other guy mentioned in the Fangraphs article. He suffered a fearsome injury on a comebacker last year, but appears to be fully recovered this spring. Isn't even being drafted in most leagues.

11. Eric Bedard, Pit. $1.1. 129.1 IP, 5 W, 125 K's, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Bedard is a poor bet to stay healthy, but if he does, he'll likely put up very good numbers. If he gets injured again, so what? I didn't spend much on him and can replace him from the FA market.

12. Hector Noesi, Sea. $-. 56.1 IP, 2 W, 45 K's, 4.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP. The forgotten man in the Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade. Had pretty good peripheral numbers in NY and the ERA should drop by close to a full run with the move to Seattle. Don't be at all surprised if he puts up better numbers than Pineda this year.

Rounding up to the closest $, I've spent a total of $43 on a 12 man starting rotation that should win K's most weeks and be competitive in the other SP categories. I can afford to go higher on some of the bids. I might even be able to splurge on a couple of higher priced pitchers in the $15 range like MadBum. This frees up substantial $$ to spend on closers and offense. Hey, I might even try to outbid somebody for Matt Kemp!

What do you think of my budget rotation?

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Spring Training Update: Game Wrap Giants 2 Indians 2

Buster Posey's first hit of the spring cleared the fence in RF to give the Giants a tie with the Indians that held up through 10 innings. They don't play open ended spring games. Key Lines:

Gregor Blanco- 1 for 3, BB. BA= .500. Blanco worked his magic on the basepaths again as he drew a walk, went from first to third on a hit-and-run grounder to 1B then scored on a groundout. Hey, it was half the Giants run total in the game!

Buster Posey- 1 for 4, HR(1). BA= .111. Great to see Buster go deep. He got 4 AB's today as the DH.

Emmanuel Burriss- 1 for 3, SB(3). BA= .386. Burriss continues to play his version of small ball. This time it did not produce any runs.

Matt Cain- 3.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 2.08. Some discouraging news on the contract front, but there's still time. Sometimes the two sides just need to get away from each other for a day or two to think things through. Gotta say I have mixed feelings for any contract for more than 3 years for any pitcher, but I know the market dictates you have to do it to lock up an ace or near ace.

Brian Wilson- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. ERA= 0.00. Wilson's FB was going 96 on the radar guns as per Alex Pavlovic. 14 pitches this time. That's a far cry from the 20-25 pitch innings we've become accustomed to from BWillie.

Clay Hensley- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 3.00. Hensley is a lock for the last bullpen slot IMO.

Dan Otero- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 2.25. From what I saw on Sunday, Otero doesn't have great velocity, but he hits his spots well and can keep hitters off balance with a nice changeup.

Jean Machi- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 2.25. I don't know much about Machi, but he's put the ball on the ground and struck out a batter an inning, although 3 of his 4 K's occured today.

Scott Barnes(Indians)- 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 0.00. Dang, Scotty coming back to haunt us! He's appeared in 3 games this spring with 1 BB, and 6 K's in 7 IP.

The Giants travel to Peoria for a night game tomorrow with Barry Zito getting his 3'rd start of the spring. I saw Zito doing some running on the practice field beyond RF of Scottdale stadium. I have to say he is quite a sight to see sprinting from corner to corner on the warning track. My daughter commented that he needs to be working hard. I said he needs to be trying to make his arm stronger! All in jest, of course. It looked like those sprints weren't any fun.

Fantasy Focus: Melky Cabrera Is Undervalued!

I am currently obsessed with fantasy baseball player auction values and have been poring over lists in preparation for my upcoming fantasy draft. One of the first things that jumped out at me was how undervalued Melky Cabrera seems to be. Here's an average price list with fantasy stat lines from 3 players from last year(Yahoo):

Andrew McCutchen $26.7 BA= .259, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 23 SB

Alex Gordon $16.8 BA= .303, 101 R, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 17 SB

Melky Cabrera $4.6 BA= .305, 102 R, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 20 SB.

Not a whole lot of difference, huh?

Of course, values are based more on what drafters think the player will do THIS year than on their stats last year, on the other hand, we really have no way of predicting the future in baseball other than to look at stats from the past.

McCutchen is a 5 tool stud who is expected to go all Matt Kemp any season now. On the other hand, in his first 3 seasons, his numbers have been remarkably consistent with no trend toward said breakout. His BA was down significantly and a positive regression is reasonable to expect which could boost his other numbers. Is that worth $22 more than Melky?

Alex Gordon has underachieved for a long time and last year was something of a breakout. He's always seemed like such a sure thing that it's easy to believe this was a true breakout and he will only get better, or at least not regress. Are you sure enough of that to pay $12 more than you would for Melky?

With Melky, everyone is focused on his squirrely past and an unsustainable BABIP. There is, however, another side to the story, that needs to be considered. In his first few seasons, Melky was in notoriously bad condition and possibly overly involved with alcohol. After hitting rock bottom with Atlanta in 2010, he found the Workout religion and got himself into shape. KC took a chance on him because, well, KC didn't have many options themselves and they got themselves a bargain. From all reports and my own observations this last weekend, Melky is, if anything, in even better shape than last year. He also has a no-nonsense work ethic bordering on workaholism. Like "Cutch", he's always had the tools and he's just entering what are usually the peak years of a player's career. You might worry about the ballpark, but KC is no picnic for hitters either.

You might rank McCutchen and Gordon a bit higher in a snake draft, but when you factor in auction prices, I'm passing on both and targeting Melky, even if I have to bid him up to $7 or $8, he's still a bargain in comparison. Heck, I'd even go to $10 which is right where an average player should cost with a $260 budget for a roster of 26 players.

BTW, Angel Pagan at $1.3 is going to be a bargain for somebody too.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Spring Training Update: Game Wrap Cubs 5 Giants 4

The Cubbies took an early lead against Madison Bumgarner then withstood a late rally led by Angel Pagan. Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 2 for 4, 2B, 3B. BA= .269. Pagan's bat came alive with a couple of XBH knocks.

Gary Brown- 1 for 1, SB. BA= .186. Gary Brown apparently survived the cutdown and had himself a successful appearance.

Mike Fontenot- 1 for 1, BB. BA- .558. A Fonty sighting!

Chris Stewart- 1 for 2. BA= .333. Gotta think CStew is winning the backup catcher battle.

Madison Bumgarner- 4 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 4 K's. ERA= 3.72. Bumgarner throws so many pitches in the strike zone, he is going to tend to get BABIP'd from time to time. It would appear that's what happened here.

Edlefsen, Affleldt, Romo, Mota, Hembree- 5 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 6 K's. Romo gave up the 2 runs. Hembree had 2 K's in his stint.

Matt Cain takes the mound tomorrow against the Cleveland Indians.

From Carl Steward's notes on Bochy's comments about Brandon Belt and RF, it sure sounds like Nate's starting job is in serious jeopardy.

Pagan will miss a couple of days to have a wisdom tooth extracted. Yikes! I had all 4 extracted at once. Sick as a dog for 2 days and unable to eat solid food for a week. Lost 5 lbs. Hopefully it's just one tooth, but I have a lot of respect for wisdom tooth extractions.

Fantasy Focus: Auction Draft?

So the commish in my fantasy league just got the bright idea to change from a traditional snake draft to an auction draft, which I've never done before. I'm feeling all kinds of angst over it. Personally, I think it's going to be a disaster because I don't think most of the guys in my league are ready for an auction draft. My league settings are 5X5 H2H, 26 players on the roster. Budget of $260 on draft day. Salaries and salary caps do not carry over into trades and waiver pickups. I just have a few questions that some of you with a little more experience may be able to help me with:

Is it better to go Stars and Scrubs, or try to distribute the money evenly throughout the roster?

Is there an upper limit of how many $$ you are willing to pay for any player. It just seems to me that $50 for Matt Kemp, to name just one, is too big a hit on the budget from one player no matter how good he is. Am I right on that?

With 26 roster spots, that's an average of $10 per player. $10 often doesn't get you much of a player. For instance, Kelly Johnson is listed as a $10 value. Kelly Johnson?

Help! I need advice!!