2025 Draft Review: MLB First Round

Just for the fun of it we will assign a letter grade which is based on to-date performance only, not on future value.  

1.  Nationals:  Eli Willits SS HS.  DOB:  12/9/2007.  B-S, T-R.  6' 1", 180 lbs.

A:  .300/.418/.500, 6 HR, 29 SB, 16.4 BB%, 23.3 K%, 232 PA.

A+:  .227/.409/.466, 6 HR, 9 SB, 21.7 BB%, 17.4 K%, 115 PA.  

Terrible BABIP luck since promotion to A+ but otherwise his line looks better than A ball.  Ultra athlete who will be a superstar if he continues to hit like this.  Grade A

2.  Angels:  Tyler Bremner RHP College.  DOB:  4/20/2004.  6' 2", 190 lbs.

A+:  0-3, 4.24, 34 IP, 12.71 K/9, 3.18 BB/9.  

Started the season strong but missed a month with arm fatigue and performance has not been the same since.  That's the risk with drafting pitchers.  Grade C.

3.  Mariners:  Kade Anderson LHP College.  DOB:  7/6/2004.  6' 2", 180 lbs. 

AA:  8-1, 1.36, 72.2 IP, 13.38 K/9, 1.24 BB/9.

And here is the upside to drafting an ace college pitcher.  We can only hope Jackson Flora takes this trajectory.  Grade A+!

4.  Rockies:  Ethan Holliday SS HS.  DOB:  2/23/2007.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 210 lbs. 

A:  .262/.395/.557, 9 HR, SB, 15.1 BB%, 28.3 K%, 152 PA.  

Age appropriate level for a player drafted out of HS.  Looking like more of a 3-true outcomes profile but as long as the K rate stays below 30% it's probably manageable and a natural byproduct of the plate discipline.  BABIP of .319 is only slightly above the mean.  Grade B+.

5.  Cardinals:  Liam Doyle LHP College.  DOB:  6/3/2004.  6' 2", 220 lbs.  

AA:  1-5, 5.46, 56 IP, 12.05 K/9, 5.30 BB/9.  

Hard throwing lefty drafted out of Tennessee.  AA is an aggressive placement but the performance is disappointing for the pedigree.  Too many walks and HR's are holding him back.  Home runs are a byproduct of an extreme flyball tendency plus a HR/FB of 15%.  Grade C.

6.  Pirates:  Seth Hernandez RHP HS.  DOB:  6/28/2006.  6' 4", 190 lbs.

A:  3-0, 0.96, 28 IP, 16.07 K/9, 2.25 BB/9.  

A+: 3-1, 3.73, 41 IP, 14.48 K/9, 3.91 BB/9.

Dominated age-appropriate A ball.  Not as dominant but more than holding his own with an aggressive promotion to A+.  Grade A.

7.  Marlins:  Aiva Arquette SS College.  DOB:  10/17/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6' 5", 220 lbs.

A+:  .276/.333/.517, 4 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 5 SB, 6.3 BB%, 27.0 K%, 63 PA.

AA:  .221/.279/.434, 7 HR, 7 SB, 6.5 BB%, 18 K%, 122 PA.

Sample sizes are small enough there is probably significant noise and the AA BABIP should regress upward.  The power/speed combo seems legit.  Currently sidelined with a thumb injury.  Grade B.

8.  Blue Jays:  JoJo Parker SS HS.  DOB:  8/8/2006.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 200 lbs.

A:  .242/.381/.426, 18 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 21 SB, 17.1 BB%, 24.7 K%, 328 PA.

Early 3-true outcomes profile but only subpar number is BA which many analysts ignore.  Could probably stand to be a bit more aggressive at the plate but that partly depends on organizational philosophy.  Grade B.

9.  Reds:  Steele Hall SS HS.  DOB:  7/24/2007.  B-R, T-R.  5' 10", 180 lbs. 

ACL:  .286/.387/.532, 16 2B, 10 HR, 24 SB, 13.5 BB%, 24.2 K%, 244 PA.

Nice numbers but a conservative placement for a #9 overall draft pick.  Grade B.

10.  White Sox:  Billy Carlson HS.  DOB:  7/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 185 lbs.

.257/.374/.335, 8 SB, 15.3 BB%, 25.4 K%, 177 PA.  

Just started a rehab assignment in the ACL after a 6 week IL stint for a fracture of the tip of his left thumb.  Decent numbers before the injury but with no power.  Grade C.

11.  A's:  Jamie Arnold LHP College.  DOB:  3/21/2004.  6' 1", 188 lbs. 

AA:  4-5, 4.15, 80.1 IP, 9.52 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 2.41 GB/FB.  

K/BB comes up a bit short but AA is an aggressive placement.  Grade B.

12.  Rangers:  Gavin Fien SS HS.  DOB:  3/8/2007.  6' 3", 200 lbs.

A(Nationals):  .249/.335/.425, 9 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 4 SB, 11.8 BB%, 28.1 K%, 221 PA.  

Drafted by the Rangers as a SS then traded to the Nationals and moved to the OF.  

High K rate is holding him down a little but still young.  Grade B.

13.  Giants:  Gavin Kilen SS College.  DOB:  3/28/2004.  B-L, T-R.  5' 10", 187 lbs.

A+:  .282/.350/.462, 27 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 9.2 BB%, 13.8 K%, 349 PA.

Performing to what the Giants drafted him for.  Strong contact numbers with moderate power.  A veritable doubles machine.  Giants must think he is progressing enough to justify a post-All-Star break promotion to AA.  Grade B+(If he puts up similar numbers in AA his grade improves to an A).  

14.  Rays:  Daniel Pierce SS HS.  DOB:  8/4/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0", 185 lbs.  

A:  .252/.336/.390, 5 2B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 7.9 BB%, 28.6 K%, 140 PA.  

Fairly average stat line for a HS draftee in his first full season in A ball.  Unfortunately Pierce must have suffered a serious injury as he hit the 60-day IL on June 9 after his last game on 5/30. Grade C(although serious injuries early in a player's career can have long lasting results).   

15.  Red Sox:  Kyson Witherspoon RHP College.  DOB:  8/12/2004.  6' 2", 220 lbs.

A+:  2-4, 5.07, 65.2 IP, 9.46 K/9, 4.39 BB/9.  

Witherspoon was a late riser in the draft cycle. Those guys often don't work out.  Grade C.

16.  Twins:  Marek Houston  SS College.  DOB:  4/14/2004.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 205 lbs.

A+:  .325/.406/.461, 14 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 24 SB, 11.9 BB%, 18.3 K%. 

AA:  .304/.380/.464, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 11.4 BB%, 17.7 BB%.

Wow! Not much to quibble about in these lines.  Twins have to be feeling pretty good about this draft.  Grade A!

17.  Cubs:  Ethan Conrad OF College.  DOB:  7/5/2004.  B-L, T-L.  6' 2", 220 lbs.

ACL:  .412/.500/.647, 2B, HR, SB, 9.5 BB%, 9.5 K%, 21 PA.

A:  .071/.133/.286, HR, 6.7 BB%, 26.7 K%, 15 PA.

Conrad had shoulder surgery his senior year of college at Wake Forest then got a late start this spring due to a lower back injury.  Extremely small pro sample size.  Grade D(may perform better if he is now healthy but that is a lot of delayed development).

18.  D'Backs:  Kayson Cunningham SS HS.  DOB:  6/25/2006.  B-L, T-R.  5' 10", 182 lbs.

A:  .381/.471/.506, 11 2B, 4 3B, HR, 10 SB, 14.5 BB%, 18.4 K%, 207 PA.

A+:  .202/.303/.286, 4 2B, HR, 4 SB, 13.1 BB%, 22.2 K%, 99 PA.

Rated one of the best hit tools in the 2025 draft.  Numbers don't refute that notion.  BABIP took a hit after promotion to A+ but that is an aggressive promotion forced by huge numbers in age-appropriate A ball.  Grade A.

19.  Orioles:  Ike Irish C College.  DOB:  11/26/2003.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 201 lbs. 

A+:  .262/.376/.468, 16 2B, 3B, 12 HR, 18 SB, 13.4 BB%, 22.3 K%, 314 PA.

Highest rated catcher in the draft with excellent performance at age-appropriate level.  Grade A.

20.  Brewers:  Andrew Fischer 3B College.  DOB:  5/25/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 210 lbs.  

A+:  .298/.443/.675, 20 HR, 4 SB, 18.3 BB%, 33.3 K%, 246 PA.

AA:  .274/.424/.753, 9 HR, 5 SB, 18.5 BB%, 33.7 K%, 92 PA.

Another Tennessee stud.  Huge power.  High K's suggest a 3-true outcomes profile but can't deny those 29 HR's which continued unabated after an aggressive promotion.  Grade A.

21.  Astros:  Xavier Neyens SS HS.  DOB:  10/29/2006.  B-L, T-R.  6' 3", 210 lbs. 

A:  .240/.449/.462, 14 HR, 16 SB, 25.9 BB%, 30.2 K%, 305 PA.

3 true outcomes profile here.  Gets an aggressive promotion to A+ to start tomorrow.  Grade A.

22.  Braves:  Tate Southisene SS HS.  DOB:  10/6/2006.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 180 lbs.

A:  297/.429/.500, 9 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 36 SB, 15.4 BB%, 21.3 K%, 240 PA.

A+:  .234/.375/.423, 8 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 7 SB, 16.9 BB%, 25 K%, 136 PA.

I don't recall this name in predraft lists.  This was truly the year of the high school shortstop.  Terrific numbers in A ball got him an aggressive early promotion to A+.  Grade A.

23.  Royals:  Sean Gamble OF HS.  DOB:  7/6/2006.  B-L, T-R.  6' 1", 188 lbs.

A:  .188/.307/.278, 10 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 23 SB, 12.0 BB%, 26.0 K%, 342 PA.  

You can see the tools in the line but has some work to do on batting skills.  Grade D.

24.  Tigers:  Jordan Yost SS HS.  DOB:  12/21/2006.  B-L, T-R.  6' 0", 170 lbs.

A:  .255/.387/.340, 9 2B, 2 3B, HR, 9 SB, 14.3 BB%, 13.0 K%, 230 PA.

Light on power but good contact with some speed.  Grade B.

25.  Padres:  Kruz Schoolcraft LHP, HS.  DOB:  4/18/2007.  6' 8", 229 lbs.

A:  1-5, 6.59, 54.2 IP, 9.38 K/9, 5.93 BB/9, 1.66 GB/FB.  

This is the kid I drooled over predraft.  Boom or bust pick.  Struggles with command/control not surprising for a kid this size but overall a disappointing first full pro season.  Maybe I'll have to figure out when he is pitching and make a trip down to Lake Elsinore to see him for myself.  Grade C.

26.  Phillies:  Gage Wood RHP College.  DOB:  12/15/2003.  6' 0", 205 lbs.

A:  0-2, 3.42, 26.1 IP, 13.67 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, 2.00 GB/FB.

AA:  0-1, 3.45, 28.2 IP, 12.24 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 1.13 GB/FB.

Started out the season with a conservative placement in A ball then skipped the age-appropriate A+ level for an aggressive promotion to AA, but doing well there in a limited sample size.  Grade A.

27.  Guardians:  Jace LaViolette OF College.  DOB:  12/4/2003.  B-L, T-L.  6' 6", 228 lbs. 

A+:  .236/.340/.449, 13 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 12.1 BB%, 36.5 K%, 323 PA.

Polarizing player leading up to the draft.  Was preseason #1 overall in some predraft, preseason rankings but stock dropped due to inconsistent junior season and severe hit-tool concerns.  So far staying true to his 3-true outcomes profile but the K rate is concerning to say the least.  Will it play at higher levels?  Grade C.

28.  Royals:  Josh Hammond SS HS.  DOB:  9/21/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 210 lbs.

A:  .282/.354/.404, 17 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 19 SB, 10.0 BB%, 20.2 K%, 351 PA.

Yet another HS shortstop I don't remember in predraft chatter.  Nice start at age appropriate level.  Grade B+.

29.  D'Backs:  Patrick Forbes RHP College.  DOB:  7/11/2004.  6' 3", 220 lbs.

A+:  0-0, 2.84, 12.2 IP, 12.08 K/9, 1.42 BB/9, 1.50 GB/FB.  

Got a late start to the season due to some sort of elbow injury.  Nice start in an extremely small sample.  Grade C(but room for big jump up in second half if he can stay healthy).

30.  Orioles:  Caden Bodine C, College.  DOB:  12/2/2003.  5' 10", 200 lbs.

A(Rays):  .379/.433/.614, 12 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 9.2 BB%, 3.9 K%, 152 PA.

A+(Rays):  .341/.411/.477, 6 2B, 4 HR, 7.3 BB%, 6.6 K%, 151 PA.

AA(Rays):  .289/.391/.447, 3 2B, HR, 10.9 BB%, 8.7 K%, 46 PA.

I did not remember that the O's took two catchers in the first round of this draft.  They traded Bodine to the Rays along with 2 other prospects for Shane Baz RHP.  Contact hitter extraordinaire.  Baz has put up 2.2 fWAR so far for the O's but they may regret this trade down the road.  

I've read comments by draft analysts that 2025 is looking like an extremely weak draft, even disastrous.  I think that may be due to weakness in the college pitching drafted in the top half of the first round, but it looks to me like there is unexpectedly strong value in the bottom half of the first round, especially among HS shortstops.