I think we've all looked at the Giants starting pitching situation as a glass half empty and we may be missing the glass that's half full. I know I have been quite vocal about the need to add starters in the Hot Stove League and the Giants themselves have said their goal is to add two starting pitchers to give them some pitching depth. Giants GM Zach Minasian held a Zoom call with beat writers and Alex Pavlovic has a quote which has Minasian perhaps backing off that goal a bit: "If we can't develop a couple of those, several of those, shame on us. I believe in our developing system and our pitching group.....getting another starter would be great, but is it a total necessity? I don't think it's a failure if we don't get another starter, but we'll continue to look,"
So who is in this gaggle of young starting pitching Minasian is talking about? Let's do a pitching prospect smackdown. As it stands, the Giants have 5 potential starting pitchers on their 40-man roster who still qualify as prospects, meaning they have pitched less than 50 innings at the MLB level. This does not include young pitchers with limited MLB experience who accumulated more than 50 innings but for various reasons have not established themselves as MLB veterans: Hayden Birdsong RHP, Tristan Beck RHP and Keaton Winn RHP. Everybody is forgetting about J. T. Brubaker RHP who was tendered a contract and is awaiting an arbitration hearing. Let's get to the Prospect Battle Royale:
Trevor McDonald RHP. DOB: 2/26/2001. 6' 2", 201 lbs. 1 Option.
2025(AAA): 9-9, 5.31, 142.1 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 2.03 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 1-0, 1.80, 15 IP, 8.40 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 2.30 GB/FB.
I've been a
Trevor McDonald fanboy ever since the Giants drafted him out of high school in the 11'th round in 2019 but used draft bonus rules to cobble together an $800 K bonus.
McDonald's development trajectory mirrors
Logan Webb's. Both had great sinkers that kept the ball on the ground at dominant levels.
McDonald was electric in three late-season MLB appearances but with a limited pitch mix: 51% curve, 39% Sinker, 6% Change Up. His sinker averaged 93 MPH. For long term success the next step is to follow
Webb in perfecting the changeup and increase it in the mix.
2025(AAA): 4-8, 3.86, 77 IP, 10.52 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 2.45 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 1-3, 4.75, 36 IP, 6.50 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.54 GB/FB, 42% Sinker, 22% Fastball, 20% Slider, 10% Changeup, 6% Curve, 96.4 vFA.
While Trevor McDonald needs to add a pitch to his repertoire, Seymour may need to simplify his. The sinker and 4-seamer are both plus pitches. He probably needs to concentrate on polishing up a third and/or 4'th pitch. Seymour pitched really well in a notoriously tough environment in the PCL. Although his numbers were not as good in a small sample at the MLB level, he finished strong with a couple of scoreless appearances including a final 3-inning stint on 9/24. He might be the most ready of this group to step up into a 5'th SP role.
2025(AAA): 3-2, 3.63, 14.05 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 2-4, 6.37, 11.83 K/9, 5.16 BB/9, 0.97 GB/FB, 39% Slider, 25% 4-seam FB, 14% Curve, 14% Sinker, 10% Change Up, 93.2 vFA.
If K rate is a measure of stuff, Teng had some of the best stuff in the organization in AAA. Although he got knocked around at the MLB level, he threw some impressive looking pitches. He's another case where he may need to simplify his arsenal. His two most effective pitches were the slider and changeup. The sinker was more effective than the 4-seam and the curve got hammered.
Blade Tidwell RHP. DOB: 6/8/2001. 6' 4", 207 lbs. 2 Options.
2025(AAA-Mets): 6-4, 4.10, 79 IP, 9.91 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB.
2025(AAA-Giants): 0-0, 1.50, 18 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.50 BB/9, 0.86 GB/FB.
2025(MLB-Mets): 1-1, 9.00, 15 IP, 6.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, 0.80 GB/FB, 39% 4-seam FB(95.7), 38% Slider, 18% Sinker.
Was effective in AAA after coming to the Giants in the haul for
Tyler Rogers, but shoulder soreness limited his appearances. Given his previous connection to
Tony Vitello at Tennessee I could see him seriously challenge for a MLB role out of spring training. Probably needs to develop a changeup or split to be a SP at the MLB level.
Carson Whisenhunt LHP. DOB: 10/20/2000. 6' 3", 214 lbs. 3 Options.
2025(AAA): 9-5, 4.43, 107.2 IP, 7.94 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.
2025(MLB): 2-1, 5.01, 23.1 IP, 6/17 K/9, 4.63, 6.17 K/9, 4.63 BB/9, 1.07 GB/FB, 48% Sinker(92.5), 37% Change Up, 14% Slider.
Whiz's K/9 was a bit disappointing even at the AAA level given he reportedly has an
80-grade change up. At the MLB level he simply did not have enough command of his sinking FB to fully set up the change and he has never commanded a breaking ball. So where does that leave him? I have this feeling that if
Dave Righetti was still the Giants pitching coach he would have him ditch the breaking ball and teach him a cutter to give him a bit of horizontal glove-side movement. The other thought is to add a 4-seamer to expand the batter's vertical visual field.
Battle Royale Smackdown: The problem here, like in the outfield, is a lot of intriguing potential but nothing that gives a ton of confidence. I guess I would move
Seymour to the top of this list and make 5'th SP his role to lose in spring training. Of course the other option is to acquire another veteran and make these five the staring rotation in
AAA Sacramento to start the season. And don't forget
Hayden Birdsong,
Keaton Winn and
Tristan Beck. I have to say, though, that
Zach Minasian has a point. If the Giants can't develop at least one league-average SP out of this bunch then they need to completely rethink their player development.
I do like the young pitching, but the hopium around it just to me has smelt like the Giants ownership trying to push a strategy of mediocrity. Build from within rather than spend money.
ReplyDeleteI know we disagree on the luxury tax Doc.
But the projections say, they’re an 86–87 win team. And they have been in the low to mid 80s projections for what seems like the last decade. It’s practically organizational strategy to be at that projected win level at this point.
Razor-thin margin territory. The pitching isn’t strong enough to withstand a Logan Webb IL stint.
So why doesn’t ownership spend an extra 10–20% on payroll on pitching to push the projection to ~90 wins? Not to build a juggernaut, just to stop living on the edge.
But my long held suspicion is that ownership doesn’t care that much about October, it’s a cherry on top to them. What they really care about is competitive Septembers, and 86 wins gets them there.
- Fan
Happily holidays Doc! Wishing a happy new years to you and your family!
Sorry Fan, but IMO you just cannot say that an ownership that approved the Rafael Devers trade doesn't care about winning or October or whatever other standard you want to hold them too. The Giants won 3 championships with a smaller core than they have now because Bruce Bochy was able to construct dominant bullpens out of nothing, absolutely nothing, and because Sabes for all his old school ways was able to consistently find hidden cheap talent to fill out the lineup with guys like Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff, Gregor Blanco, Joaquin Arias.....it's actually a pretty long list. This team needs better baseball decisions and better managing/coaching talent. I am close to 100% certain that Rags Righetti would turn at least one of these guys into at least a #3 SP. The most obvious one to me is Whiz who I am sure Rags would teach the cutter to and have him ditch the slider and curve which he has never come close to mastering.
DeleteWe can quibble about ownership, but the strategy to get to October this year seems to rest on coaching. That can work when you have Bochy and his staff in their primes, as you mentioned. But as much as I like the Tony V hire, expecting him to coach this team to two or three extra wins over Bob Melvin is a tough ask, and a lot less reliable than paying for proven players. Great coaching is absolutely worth pursuing, and in my opinion hiring Tony V was a savvy baseball move. I just wish they had bought a little more insurance than banking the season on a new manager. It also puts, in my opinion, unrealistic expectations on Tony, especially in his first season.
Delete- Fan
Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are all proven players they are paying a lot of money to. It seems pretty reasonable to me that not only is developing and promoting from within a way to fill out the roster at a more reasonable cost, but there actually may be more upside in the homegrown players than in paying for players who are probably already past their primes. Yes, there is a risk that none of the homegrowns pan out but as Buster pointed out when he hired Tony V, there is inherent risk no matter who you hire.
DeleteThe front office surrounded Tony V with a lot of help with Bochy, Dusty, Ron Washington, Tingler, and Wotus. There will be a learning curve for Vitello but he's going to have a lot of help to draw from.
DeleteI actually like a few of the young SP candidates in McDonald, Tidwell and WHIZ and I think all 3 have the stuff to grab a starting spot..but not sure they have the rest of what is needed to do it right now..So it's more of a hope than a good possibility...And counting on possibilities (like in the OF also) is not a way to build a winner..ANd, in my opinion, it's even worse in the OF, I don't think any of the 4-5 "hopefulls" have much of a chance..
ReplyDeleteI would really like to see the Giants spend (in dollars or assets) for MAJOR HELP at either OF or a SP, the latter being a must in the next two years. I don't see the Giants being penny pinchers, they have made some big bold expensive moves, but what's more important is will they (and any future moves or non-moves) be the right ones? Especially when you have to fight LA, SD and ARIZONA every year which is a factor that needs to be considered if you want to be a PO team.
Oh and another guy that I think has the Stuff at SP is TENG...It might only last 3-4 innings but when he's on...pretty impressive...He and the Giants need a sports psychologist that specialize in Jeckyl and Heckyl..err Hyde syndrome!
SteveVA
I am honestly not sure what you just said here, SteveVA. It sounds like what I see over and over from few commenters here and on other sites: The Giants need to develop their own players, BUT THEY NEED TO SPEND MORE MONEY ON FREE AGENTS! If you really want them to develop their players, and I've just presented 5 pitchers here who have the potential for development, then they have to have a place to play. Minasian made the point that even top prospects sometimes struggle in their first exposure to MLB level play. You have to have an ounce of patience. I am quite sure that if Rags Righetti was still the pitching coach he would be the finisher in developing at least one of these 5 pitchers plus Birdsong into at least average MLB pitchers. Obviously Rags is not coming back but don't you think a big reason why Bob Melvin is gone and the pitching coaches with him is that Buster and Zach saw something they were or weren't doing that failed to develop these developable kids? Don't we need to give the Tony Vitello and his staff a chance to show they can? Bochy and Rags built bullpens out of absolutely nothing. Maybe Vitello is the guy who can do it again?
DeleteRegarding the OF, Buster made significant progress the last two weeks toward sorting out the logjam. He added a catcher and two pitchers while subtracting 3 OF's. So he's down to 7 OF's competing for up to 5 positions. That's about what you want to go into spring training with. Much like the pitchers, I think the OF's they already have can develop into what's on the market not named Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger and I don't think either Tucker or Bellinger is THAT GUY who they want to commit to 6 or 7 year contract too. They need to settle on who they think can take the next step out of the group they have and have the patience to let them figure it out at this level.
DeleteAnd finally, I have full confidence that if Buster finds THAT GUY, goes to the rest of the ownership group and says this is THE GUY who will put us back in the World Series he will get the financial backing to make the deal.
DeleteSorry, E! Thank you for the kind comment but I needed to delete my previous comment due to some ill-chosen words and a factual error.
DeleteFrom Wiki: "An analysis by Fangraphs showed that Righetti has an uncanny knack for teaching pitchers to avoid giving up home runs."
ReplyDeleteBring back Rags!
And to think I basically got run off Fangraphs(before the good stuff was behind a paywall) because I said the Giants had a system for preventing home runs.
DeleteI'm all for developing their young pitching talent, they shouldn't block them. Hopefully their new pitching coaches can help. I like Seymour and Whisenhunr. Vitello knows Tidwell from Tennessee and maybe can help in his development. But I think its a good idea to look for 1 more veteran SP. They talked up their young SP depth last season and barely had enough depth to finish season. Although Harrison and Hicks were traded for Devers and Birdsong lost his command and was sent down. As they say you never have enough pitching. Off-season has a long way to go, we will see.. Happy Holidays!
ReplyDeleteI would like them to sign another veteran pitcher but I also think they can afford to let the market come to them.
Deletei will be brief: the Giants and Birdsong must work together to fix Birdsong! terrific sunday entry, DrB. -es
ReplyDeleteThe similarities of McDonald and Webb is a good call out. A guy who get GBs and Ks is my favorite kind of pitcher. I hope he gets a legit shot to try to build on his success from his limited MLB opportunity
ReplyDeleteI’m still holding out for one big move whether it’s a pitcher they add or an OF/2B upgrade. There are too many trades floating around and this team still has big holes at those 3 spots that at least one has to be addressed for the offseason to be a success IMO. Scherzer may be the bare minimum they could do to pull that off but why not Tucker? To several people’s points, there aren’t many others that would be worth the investment and he wouldn’t block anyone. I get that he was on track to earn around $500 million or so before the offseason but he is still hanging around. Defer money, go short term for $60 million a year, or just bite the bullet and offer him the best contract in the market! Lots of ways to get it done and for the only player that could make a real difference to this team.
ReplyDeleteYou don't commit $500 M to one player just to fill a hole. You commit that kind of money to THAT player who is going to front your franchise for 10 years. If Buster thinks Tucker is THAT player, I am sure he can get the backing from the rest of ownership to get it done. I just think it's highly likely that Buster does not see Tucker as THAT guy.
DeleteI get a Jason Heyward feel with Kyle Tucker. Maybe I am way off, but just doesn’t seem like a top guy to build your franchise around. Good 2nd or 3rd option
DeleteWhen we say "THAT guy", that infers that the player is a generational talent. "THAT guy" applies to players like Ohtani, Harper, or Judge. Baseball-reference.com says Tucker is a similar hitter to Bob Cerv, Kal Daniels, and Bryan Reynolds. A previous poster said that he got a "Jason Hayward feel" and I was getting a Justin Upton vibe. Buster likely has a similar opinion. Tucker is probably better than Bob Cerv and will last longer but still not enough to justify mega bucks to one player and I suspect there will be buyer's remorse in three years.
DeleteI am in the unusual position of agreeing with almost everything in this post, and even most everything in your follow up comments. Would not surprise me if Tidwell were also considered for closer, given the desire for velocity.
ReplyDeleteAll the best for a lovely Christmas week to you and yours.
Thank you, Jim
DeleteRe: The first post above making a comment needing backup to Webb going on the IL. We all. know how durable Webb has been and hope that continues. But the chances of a MLB SP staff making it through a season without IL time is less than 2%. Most teams use 8-12 starting pitchers over the course of a season. (Not sure if that includes "openers, relief pitcher throwing 1-2 innings to start a game). So, one can build an argument that the Giants should go out and get a veteran SP. Or one can make an argument that with the options listed above, the Giants should give the young guys an opportunity to succeed. If it was up to me, I would pony up for an OF. This hurts for me to say, but I think the best fit would be Cody Bellinger. Fangraphs projects him to slash .267/.331/.451. If possible I would pay a higher yearly salary to keep it to 2 year contract.
ReplyDeleteBelllinger took advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium. .909 Home OPS vs .715 Away.
DeleteThanks, Doc ... too many audacious voices online and Youtube these days. This highly reasoned post is like a breath of fresh air and as a lifetime Giants fan who just wants to see young men grow and reach their potential each season, I couldn't agree a lot of fans are not taking a harder look at the coaches. I've read more than one ex-Giant who was around the team comment how lax the clubhouse was last season under Melvin. We're really looking forward to hanging out around the batting cages and training fields at this upcoming spring training -- it's shaping up to look like a more disciplined and structured environment.
ReplyDeleteNice analysis of in house candidates. It's probably easy to slip into Dodger Envy Syndrome-- we are all looking for the next Yamamoto or Glasnow or Snell (gasp) in this year's batch of free agents. But peeling back to DrB's analysis of the free agent class I don't think we're going to find that sort of SP in this class. And most will cost a draft pick if they turned down a QO. I think the Giants probably kicked the tires on someone like Zac Gallen and came up empty. Many of the "front line FA SP" are probably looking for a 9 figure contract. I suppose as a "diehard fan" we can cheer for that, but if we were to see this from the position of the owners does that sort of investment cause the team to lose money? Unless the economics of the game change, it would appear that ownership needs to sacrifice to compete in this sort of FA escalation with the Bums.
ReplyDeleteA lot of fans don’t realize that the free agent market is actually one of the riskiest ways to build a team. If the players they have now cut down on the 90 foot mistakes and improve fundamentals, that will improve the team as much or more than a flashy free agent. That’s probably why the Giants went with a lot of coaching experience.
ReplyDeleteWe are looking down south at a cash generating dynasty that has no competition in what they can spend on players especially with so many of them accepting deferred contracts that their management can make money on their future salaries.
ReplyDeletePlus, with 60,000 plus seats in their stadium, they can draw 4,000,000 fans per year at a high average ticket price.
When we complain about the Giants management spending on things-not-Giant, Guggenheim Partners, the controlling interest of the Dodgers, is a 350 Billion Dollar entity that dwarfs what they spend on the Dodgers, who make money on their own and can pay a record-setting penalty of $169.4 million on top of the largest payroll in baseball without "batting" an eye.
You may not be able to buy love, but you can buy pennants which get you a good opportunity to win World Series.
Not necessarily buy pennants but if a team with a lot of money to spend makes a mistake in free agency, they simply cover it with more cash. The team down south made a lot of mistakes last season that would cripple most teams and they were close to not achieving their goal.
DeleteThe Dodgers are possibly the biggest outlier ownership group in terms of financial resources in MLB history. I do think the next Basic Agreement needs to address that but I don't think it necessarily has to be a hard cap. First and foremost they need to address the deferment loophole. I also think they could increase revenue sharing and make it a hard requirement that teams receiving shared revenue invest it in baseball operations and/or have a payroll floor.
DeleteAlmost forgot to mention that I liked your rundown of their young pitching which included each pitchers pitch mix. It would be positive if the Giants get good at developing their own pitching. I've noticed the Guardians are good at developing homegrown pitching. Pitching is expensive in the free agent market $30 + mil a year for a ace pitcher. Also other teams will want to trade with you if the system has good young pitching. I liked alex pavolic saying on his podcast that he disagreed with GM Zach Miniansan's comment that the off-season wouldn't necessarily be a failure if they signed only one veteran starter.. I'm glad someone in the media came out disagreeing with that.
ReplyDeleteMedia? You talkin' 'bout me? Hmm.....I have never thought of myself as "media" but will meditate on that.
DeleteNo, I was talking about Alex Pavolic Giants beat reporter disagreeing with Giants GM Minniasen who said signing only 1 veteran starting pitcher this off season not necessarily a failure. Apologies 0if what I posted was misunderstood.
Delete