Fangraphs is out with their top 50 free agent list along with contract estimates. Adding at least one SP this offseason is a Giants priority so let's look at what's available on the free agent market. Remember if we use the CBT threshold as the Giants spending limit, They have a total of about $60 M AAV to spend and they have more needs than just adding a SP.
Tier 1:
Dylan Cease RHP. Age 30. 8-12, 4.55, 168 IP, 11.52 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 3.56 FIP. Estimated Contract: 5 yr/$130-155 M, $26-31 M AAV.
Gives you innings but ERA has been higher than FIP for past 3 seasons.
Framber Valdez LHP. Age 32. 13-11, 3.66, 192 IP, 8.77 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 2.57 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 5 Yr/$134-150 M, $28-30 AAV.
Makes up for lower K/9 with extreme groundball ratio. Appeared to hit his catcher with a pitch on purpose last season.
Ranger Suarez LHP. Age 30. 12-8, 3.20, 157.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.32 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 5 Yr/$125-130 M, $25-26 AAV.
Gets by with less than elite stuff with excellent command of a 5-pitch mix. Has spent time on IL 3 straight seasons and has never pitched 160 innings in a season.
Tier 2:
Michael King RHP. 30 yo. 5-3, 3.44, 73.1 IP, 9.33 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 4.42 FIP. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/22 M- 4 yr/$88 M.
Coming off a down season with injuries. Might just accept a QO from the Padres.
Merrill Kelly RHP. 37 yo. 12-9, 3.52, 184 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.35 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/$21 M- 2 yr/$32 M.
37 yo but still a reliable innings-eating SP.
Shota Imanaga LHP. 32 yo. 9-8, 3.73, 144.2 IP, 7.28 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 0.54 GB/FB. Estimated Contract:
Extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't get many K's. That is generally a prescription for disaster. Imanaga mitigates it with an extremely low walk rate. Numbers fell off a cliff in the second half last year.
Zac Gallen RHP. 30 yo. 13-15, 4.83, 192 IP, 8.20 K/9, 3.09 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$36-54 M. coming off one if his worst seasons.
2025 was the highest ERA of his career.
Tatsuya Imai RHP. 27 yo. 10-5, 1.92, 163.2 IP, 9.79 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 4 yr/$64 M-5 yr/$100 M.
Stats are from the NPB.
Brandon Woodruff RHP. 32 yo. 7-2, 3.20, 64.2 IP, 11.55 K/9, 1.95 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$34 M-3 yr/$66 M.
Elite stuff and numbers when healthy. Has missed a lot of time to injury the last two years.
Chris Bassitt RHP. 36 yo. 11-9, 3.96, 170.1 IP, 8.77 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB. Estimate Contract: 1 yr/$17 M-2 yr/$36 M.
At least 170 IP the last 4 seasons. Consistently puts up sub-4.00 ERA's.
Tier 3:
Lucas Giolito RHP. 31 yo. 10-4, 3.41, 145 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 4.17 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$28 M-2 yr/$36 M.
Long considered to have breakout potential. Has never quite lived up to expectations and very much runs hot and cold.
Cody Ponce RHP. 31 yo. 17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.55 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$16 M-3 yr/$24 M.
Big, hard thrower. Up and down career. Reportedly reworked his game and his body last season for the KBO. Prior to that had mixed results in the NPB. Can KBO numbers be trusted to translate to MLB?
Tyler Mahle RHP. 31 yo. 6-4, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 6.85 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 3.37 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$26-32 M.
Pitches to contact with some success when healthy. Has struggled with injuries for the past 4 seasons.
Zack Littell RHP. 30 yo. 10-8, 3.81, 186.2 IP, 6.27 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 4.88 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$20-24 M.
Contact pitcher who can eat innings. Hated Gabe Kapler and had an on-field meltdown punching his ticket out of San Francisco at the time. Would Buster Posey hold that against him?
Justin Verlander RHP. 43 yo. 4-11, 3.85, 152 IP, 8.11 IP, 3.08 BB/9, 0.77 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/$10-15 M
I am sure the Giants would be happy to have him back on another 1 yr/$15 M contract. Get 'er done, Buster then get another SP in this price range.
Comment: I would think bringing Verlander back plus adding someone like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt on 1-2 year deals makes a lot of sense for what the Giants rotation needs. Maybe Mad Max Scherzer who did not make Fangraphs Top 50 FA list.
The only reason to sign 44 year old Verlander is so you can make it easy to replace that rotation spot with whichever young guy does the best. Otherwise, not excited at all about the prospect of bringing him back. Not excited at all with the free agent pitchers listed here that are available. Cease is coming off a mediocre year so definitely it would be ridiculous to give him the contract that you list he’s predicted to get. Wouldn’t want to be stuck with Ranger or Framber either. King and Giolito would be interesting on a one/two year deal with with low expectations. Greg Johnson did an interview where he mentioned the Giants have a lot of young pitchers on the cusp of the majors that are part of their future but that it would likely be better to let them get another season at AAA. That’s where Verlander at a one year deal would fit in. Definitely wouldn’t expect senior citizen Verlander to make it through the whole season.
ReplyDeleteMad Max is more likely than Verlander to sign with SF. Either is pretty doubtful, but Scherzer has some vibes with the new guy...
DeleteI like Verlander and Bassitt as reliable veteran workhorses while the younger pitchers blossom.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't mind if Giants took a flyer on Zac Gallen. When he was good, he was very good. Maybe he's still got some life left in that right arm of his ... ??? Actually, though, I wouldn't be surprised if Buster opts to sign maybe one middling free agent starter and trade for a better top-line rotation piece (and maybe closer, too).
ReplyDeleteVerlander was better at everything in his last 7 games when he managed to garner 3 wins.
ReplyDeleteSay that you forget the first 22 games (1-10), because winning games is nice but not the Prime Stat for an SP, at least a normal SP.
Focus on Verlander's goal: 300 wins, he needs 34 more beginning at 43 yo for the 2026 season.
It seems that he won't be looking for salary or a nice environment: he wants Wins. Who's likely to give him the best shot?
If Toronto offers him $5M, he'll sign.
Fits Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres...
DeletePonce and Imai seem to have the highest upsides. I really would love to see the Gs land Imai in particular. But both seem way more attractive than the reclamation projects listed here. What do you think the odds are they go strongly after either of these two?
ReplyDeleteShota Imanaga is projected to receive a new contract valued around
ReplyDelete$43.5 million over three years, but, the Cubs are also expected to extend a one-year qualifying offer worth approximately $22.025 million. (Google A.I.)
Not sure about the exact cost for the Giants for picking a player with a QO – it's something like a 2nd round pick plus a half million from their international pool, is that a steep price?
Framber Valdez said that the incident with his catcher was a communication error but looking at the video, I felt that there was some intent.
ReplyDelete