The "Hot Stove League" officially opens the day after the World Series ends. Teams have 5 days to negotiate with their own free agents without having to worry about what other teams are offering. Free agents drop off 40-man rosters. Players on the 60-day IL are automatically added back onto the 40-man roster.
Free agents who will drop off the Giants 40-man roster include Justin Verlander RHP, Dominic Smith 1B/DH/LF, and Wilmer Flores 1B/DH. I highly doubt the Giants have any intention of bringing Flores back but might have interest in making offers to Verlander and Smith.
Players on the 60-Day IL who will be added to the 40-man roster today include Erik Miller LHP, Randy Rodriguez RHP and Tom Murphy C. I would think Murphy will be immediately released with Miller and Rodriguez staying on. Miller should be available to play by spring training. Rodriguez will go back on the 60-day IL in the spring and remain their for all of 2026 due to Tommy John surgery.
Patrick Bailey C and Ryan Walker RHP just missed the "super two" cut-off and are not eligible for arbitration leaving just three arbitration-eligible players: Andrew Knizner C, Joey Lucchesi LHP and JT Brubaker RHP. Projected arbitration salaries are Brubaker at $2.1 M, Lucchesi at $ 2 M Knizner at $1.3 M. I doubt the Giants want to go to an arbitration hearing with any of them but should try to re-sign them before the contract tender deadline.
Having reviewed the Giants organizational deph charts through the postseason, let's focus on where we found needs heading into the Hot Stove League and in order of how critical the need is:
1. Starting Pitcher: Right now the Giants have just two reliable SP's on the roster with a bevy of intriguing but unestablished young hurlers plus Brubaker. They have a critical need to add at least one established #3 or better SP and could use another less expensive SP similar to Brubaker. I rank that as their #1 Hot Stove League need.
2. Closer: In the wake of the midseason trades of Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, the Giants still have a better than decent bullpen but Ryan Walker is the only pitcher on the roster with signficant Closer experience. After his struggles last season he cannot be the presumptive Closer on the first day of spring training. Past signings of Armando Benitez RHP and Mark Melancon RHP scarred me as much as anyone but the Giants find themselves in a position where they have to do it again if they don't want to squander the money spent to build a competitive core.
3. Right Field: While the Giants have multiple candidates for the starting right field position there are none who can be counted on to close a gaping hole in the lineup. If the Giants are going to add a position player in the offseason, right field has to be the priority over second base. I agree with Owner Greg Johnson's comments that they have to be wary of locking in too many simultaneous long term contracts there may be lower cost options than Kyle Tucker OF through free agency or more likely trade.
3. DH: The Giants are in a weird position here in that Devers can DH but will probably be happier playing first base at least half the time. Buster has said he prefers to rotate position players through the DH to give them days off but then their position has to be covered with an adequate bat or and already marginal lineup becomes shorter. They also have an elite prospect in Bryce Eldridge who, like Devers, is limited to 1B and DH. I am in the camp who thinks Eldridge needs more minor league PA's before you pair him up with Devers in a same-handed 1B/DH platoon so Buster needs to go out and get a bat, any position will do, who can DH until Eldridge is ready.
4. Second Base: If the Giants fill the hole in RF they can probably roll with Casey Schmitt and Christian Koss at 2B. Ideally one of them would bat left but the advantage Schmitt and Koss have is they can both double as utility infielders. If right field proves too difficult to upgrade, they second base becomes more of a concern. If it proves easier to upgrade there, such as a trade for Brendan Donovan, they might have to pull the trigger on it.
5. Reserve Catcher: I'm actually OK with Knizner as back up catcher. He hit over .300 in the second half in a small sample. Reserve catcher is a lower priority position and you are not going to attract a starting caliber catcher to be the reserve behind Patrick Bailey. But if Knizner forces the Giants to go to an arbitration hearing, they could move on and look to fill the position with someone else.
While there is some chatter on the internets about trading Heliot Ramos or Jung Hoo Lee, the rest of the roster looks set with a reasonable hope for several players to improve on their 2025 performances. On the other hand, Buster Posey has been so bold in his first year as POBO, I would not put it past him to swing a blockbuster trade to shake up and reset the roster. I would love that but admit it's not clear where and how that would lead to an upgrade.
Seems like re-signing Dominic Smith would fill the time gap at 1B/DH while the kid gets more salt. I would love to see him set training camp on fire and make the big squad but he still looked to have some holes in his swing that need closing. I would also love to see Verlander resigned with the promise that Buster/Tony will make a play for Scherzer who is set to be a FA this year as well. Scherzer would also add value by giving Tony V another ally in the clubhouse. One last thought, I wonder if Dominic Smith and/or the kid could start shagging balls in right field. As a former pitcher, the kid’s got an arm and Smith has played some corner outfield in the past. Smith’s ball-in-play style and .284 BA, I would imagine, would be just what Buster is looking for.
ReplyDeleteI would love to see a back-up catcher with a bat. Bailey’s excruciating slumps need to be fixed. He was on the interstate much of the year and ended with a meager .222 after he appeared to pick up the pace late. He can do better and he needs to figure out how.
That is my Hot Stove League wish list for this year.
I agree with your comment, completely! Let’s see how Bailey starts off next year! When he first came up, he seemed to be a better hitter than Buster was. But, that went downhill and never returned.
DeleteLast nights Dodgers win was heartbreaking. Then read the interview by Greg Johnson, and once again realized that the owners care about the dividend checks more than getting out of the Dodgers shadow. Being a sports fan sometimes is about being able to get through the dark times.
ReplyDelete- Fan
For the umpteenth time, I refuse to criticize ownership for operating within the parameters of the CBT. The Giants problems over the past decade are not due to lack of spending by ownership. And F the Dodgers!
DeleteThe Giants have been willing to spend to compete.
DeleteThey have made huge investments this year on the core and will add when feasible.
The Dodgers' investment group is willing to make their money by increasing the value of the franchise which has tripled since their purchase in 2012 for $2.15 billion.
The Giants were worth $643 million in 2012. Their estimated value in 2025 is $4 billion.
Something LA has done is to defer over $1 billion in salaries to at least eight players through 2046, mostly to Ohtani. They also have the oldest team averaging 30 yo, with only one player of the 10 in the lineup under 30 – this year! Many are signed to long term contracts, 6 to 2030 or longer.
The Giants have 3 contracts whose value – almost $90,000,000 – bight not look great in 2030.
We are going to continue to disagree doc! Still appreciate all you do!
Delete- Fan
Although Smith put up good numbers with the Giants in 63 games, there is a glut of 1B/LF free agents which won't help him get a big increase @ 31 yo for 2026.
ReplyDeleteHe would be a great "bridge to Eldridge" so will Buster give him a good look at $1.5 to $2MM, an increase from $943,548 last year but a good bit less than he's made in the past?
Buster wasted no time this year when he grabbed Smith 2 days after his release by the Yankees and bringing him directly to SF.
Appreciate the disagreement Doc!
ReplyDelete- Fan
Props for posting a good opinion.
Delete- Other Fan
I hate the Dodger$ as much as any Giants fan and am demoralized that they attract and pay for premium players more than any other team but I have to acknowledge that they play smart baseball. If Tony V can instill a strong drive and desire to play smarter than they have shown in recent years I’m sure good things will follow for the Giants.
ReplyDeleteI will grudgingly admit the Dodgers made a whole bunch of defensive plays I didn't think they were capable of.
DeleteFrom "Dodgers Way" (link below):
Delete"Dodgers' revenue vs payroll figures should quiet every single crybaby out there"
Quote: "In 2024, the Dodgers brought in roughly $752 million in revenue and turned around to pour $549 million into payroll plus tax. That’s about 73% of revenue plowed directly into player costs. The Yankees, another lightning-rod franchise, posted around $728 million in revenue against $362 million in payroll plus tax, or roughly 50% reinvestment. Both are spending, sure, but the Dodgers are operating on a different plane of commitment."
Interesting read if your stomach can take it:
https://dodgersway.com/dodgers-revenue-vs-payroll-figures-should-quiet-every-single-crybaby-out-there
How much of "who is manager" influences a player signing as a free agent?
ReplyDeleteIs it a disadvantage for the Giants to have a true professional baseball rookie as manager?
Or continuity: the Giants have their 4th manager in 8 years?
Is that cancelled by have a probable future Hall of Famer as POBO negotiating with the player?
Seems that, in the case of pitchers, Buster is a strong plus along with the benefits of Oracle Park for half the games.
Will some of this spill over to hitters, who may be wary of a pitcher's park for half their games and any potential negative feelings about San Francisco?
Probably most northern Californians don't agree, but Google A.I. states "City perception: Posey has publicly stated that player concerns about safety, crime, and drug use in San Francisco have negatively impacted the team's ability to attract top free agents."
Do you think this, negative feeling about SF, is true? It's a nice place to visit but who other than Hunter Pence wants to live there?
I think who the manager is only affects player preferences at the extremes. Based on his reputation I think there might be more than a few players out there who see Vitello as a breath of fresh air and want to play for him. Ultimately I think it's 90% about agreeing on money. The park is a deterrent to some hitters but Willy Adames and Raffy Devers proved they could hit home runs there so maybe that will help dispel the aversion. As for city perception, Buster Posey himself also said he disagrees with the negative perception of the city and chose to move back there from his home state of Georgia because he likes it so much. I am sure he is eager to give his personal testimonial when talking to prospective players. It can't hurt the Vitello chose the Giants after living in Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas for a long time.
DeleteThe negative publicity about San Francisco is overrated because it does not stop players from other sports from living in the Bay Area. We're talking Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and a lot of 49ers.
DeleteNOT SOLD ON LEE as an outstanding defensive CF...move him to RF, find a CF(Bader?)
ReplyDeleteNobody thinks Lee is an outstanding CF. Is he good enough? I tend to think if Lee gets moved to RF, Drew Gilbert will be the CF. Can Gilbert hit enough?
DeleteCan Lee hit enough to be a corner OFer?
DeleteDo you think Lee is affected now, at least this past year, by his 2024 injury in CF?
He "was considered a very good center fielder in Korea, prized for his combination of solid defense and elite hitting ability. While his defensive statistics had some fluctuations, his overall performance and reputation made him one of the top players in the league."
From Google AI Overview.
At times to my eye, Lee appeared to play CF with one eye on the wall and the other on Heliot Ramos.
DeleteLee would likely play up in a corner. He can really cover some ground but his seemingly struggles to finish. I think he'd enjoy deferring to someone else in CF.
DeleteI all for giving Gilbert/McCray a shot in CF this year. I better defensive CF will help Ramos in LF as well.
Spend the money on Framber!
Here's hoping that Eldridges start in the majors goes similar to Poseys. Very similar opening callups. Posey was sent back to AAA the next season and proceeded to murder the league. He was called up and murdered major league pitching in 2010. And we all know how that ended up.
ReplyDeletePosey was 23 in 2010 when he took over catching for the Giants to stay.
ReplyDeleteFrom 18-20 yo, he had increasingly good years at Florida State U (boo from this Gator), being named the nation's top player and the top collegiate catcher in 2008 and won the ACC batting triple crown.
When he was called up to stay in 2010, his AAA numbers were .349/.442/.552/.995 in 208 PAs.
Whatever Eldridge may become, comparisons to Posey are premature.
A Brandon Belt wouldn't be bad, a Will Clark would be really good, and a Willie McCovey would make him the best ever Giant 1Bman.