Scouting the 2023 Draft: Could the Giants Pick #1 Overall?

 ......The answer is yes, the Giants have a chance to pick #1 overall in the 2023 draft.  That's because the draft rules changed dramatically in the last Basic Agreement signed when the 2022 lockout was settled.  So just what are the Giants chances of selecting #1 overall?  Well, not great but not zero.  Here's how it works:

The 18 non-playoff teams from 2022 enter a draft lottery for the top 6 picks to be held on December 6 at the Winter Meetings.  The odds are weighted to favor the teams with worse records.  By the old system of ranking worst to best records, the Giants would be drafting #16.  I have not done the math myself but others who have say the Giants have approximately a 90% chance of drafting #16.  There is approximately a 5% chance they move up to one of the top 6 spots and approximately a 5% chance they move down to #17.  The chance they draft #1 overall is 0.5% compared to 16.5% each for the Nationals, A's and Pirates.  

Wherever the Giants pick, they will not lose their first round selection even if they sign Aaron Judge.  If they sign a free agent with a QO, they will lose a second round pick but they will almost certainly gain a pick when Carlos Rodon signs with another organization.

So, all you baseball draftniks out there make sure to circle the date 12/6, 5:30 PM PST on MLB channel to see if the Giants move up in the draft, possibly all the way to #1 overall!

I am hoping to feature expanded draft coverage this year.  Last year between a lost 2020 season and the Giants drafting last in the queue, coverage it seemed like a difficult and almost pointless task.  We'll start by profiling some of the more highly ranked draft prospects then start to rank them as the draft approaches.  

A shoutout to Prospects Live, linked to the right.  Check it out for much more complete and knowledgeable draft coverage.