As Giants fans wait with baited breath for any word, sign, smoke signal or tea leaf that Aaron Judge might be signing a free agent contract with the Giants, I have racked by brain to think of any reasonable comp to this unique and uniquely talented player. There is no question that Aaron Judge would instantly address most of the Giants roster deficiencies, especially on the positional side, in one single move. Middle-of-the-order-bat? Check. Plus defensive outfielder? Check. Star power to get butts in seats? Check. fWAR boost to a postseason win total? Check.
The obvious concern, which is always brought up, is length of contract and injury risk. Whether true or not, conventional wisdom is that physically large players tend to not age well. But is this an inevitability for Judge? Today, as I was thumbing through my brain's Rolodex, I suddenly thought of a similar sized and talented outfielder who had an extraordinarily long career: Dave Winfield! As I dug through their Fangraphs stat sheets, I was struck by the similarities. So let's do a comp/contrast and see what turns up.
Dave Winfield OF, 6'6", 220 lbs(I am pretty sure he weighed more at the peak of his career and later). B-R, T-R. Drafted Age 21 1973 Round 1, Pick #4 out of college(Minnsota). Did not play an inning of minor league ball. Had 158 MLB PA's in 1973.
Free agency after age 28 season(1980): .276/.365/.450, 20 HR, 23 SB, 12.3 BB%, 12.9 K%, 643 PA, fWAR= 3.6. Signed a 10 yr/$23 M contract with the Yankees which made him at the time the highest paid player in MLB(George Steinbrenner was apparently unaware of a COLA in the contract which increased its total value from $16 M to $23 M, a misunderstanding that led to their infamous feud).
Age 30 Season(1982): .280/.331/.560, 37 HR, 5 SB, 7.5 BB%, 10.7 K%, 597 PA, fWAR= 3.5.
Age 31 Season(1983): .283/.345/.513, 32 HR, 15 SB, 8.7 BB%, 11.6 K%, 664 PA, fWAR= 3.0.
Age 36 Season(1988): .322/.398/.530, 25 HR, 9 SB, 10.0 BB%, 13.9 K%, 631 PA, fWAR= 5.0.
Age 40 Season(1992): .290/.377/.491, 26 HR, 2 SB, 12.2 BB%, 13.3 K%, 670 PA, fWAR= 3.8.
Notes: 670 PA at age 40 is....well, stupendous! fWAR's dragged down by horrendous fielding metrics as early as 1980, his age 28 season.
Aaron Judge OF, 6'7", 280 lbs(I will add he carries his weight well). B-R, T-R, Drafted Age 21, 2013 Round 1, Pick #32 out of college(Fresno St). MLB debut 2016 Age 24.
Age 29 Season(2021): .287/.373/.544, 39 HR, 6 SB, 11.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, 633 PA, fWAR= 5.5.
Age 30 Season(2022): .311/.425/.686, 62 HR, 16 SB, 15.9 BB%, 25.1 K%, 696 PA, fWAR= 11.4.
Notes: Judge missed considerable playing time in 2018(age 26) and 2019( age 27) to injuries but still put up fWAR's of 5.3 and 4.3 respectively. In addition to his explosive bat, Judge has been an average to plus defensive OF including in CF(more on that later) which helped his fWAR numbers. Unable to comp age 28 seasons(the year before Winfield hit free agency due to COVID-shortened 2020 season).
Interesting. I have heard several times that "analysts" believe that Judge will not age well, essentially because of his height and weight, but hadn't checked any numbers. This encourages me. And yes, he doesn't look nearly as heavy as he is listed; looks smooth and athletic. Perhaps it is time to make up for the mistake in taking Christian Arroyo seven picks earlier .... But it's entirely up to him. I suspec the numbers will be about the same, it's just a question of where he wants to play.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis.
ReplyDeleteAnd recognition of a valid comp, although Winfield is an outlier. How many are there?
At least there is that to worry less about aging.
As well as the existence of the DH (in the NL), no matter how one may feel about it.
It's a different perspective on the down years after 4 or 5 or even 6 years: if his eye and swing are not deteriorating, so what if his legs do?
It makes it tough for Judge: return "home" and star for his "home team" or be one of (at least) a half dozen great Yankees?
Money isn't the issue: either team can pay whatever. Where does he want to be?
Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio, Ford, Rivera or Mays, Bonds, Ott, Marichal, Mathewson, McCovey?
Just to mention a few greats.
8 years, $300MM – does it matter if respectability is at least temporarily returned?
We should say GO: Giants will have something to build around and hope there will be more (Dodgers best players are all re-hires).
I think the word on the street is Judge wants to sign before the second week of December. Regardless if he signs with the Giants or not it's still really fun to think about!
ReplyDeleteIf you look at "successful" Giants teams, they are almost always built around a player be it Posey, Bonds (both), Mays, Clark (both to some extent), Mathewson, Hubbell, Ott, and other HOFers, WS winners, and heroes: Terry, Frisch, Bancroft, Fletcher, Marichal, McCovey, and Bumgarner.
ReplyDeleteTeams (and fans) "need" a super hero, and that's why the Giants must make a serious, sincere, and successful effort to sign Judge even knowing there will probably be bad years at the end.
Whether he could turn the team around by himself or should be augmented with a second stud, the excitement he would create would, for a while, re-create the excitement that followed Barry, the Willies, the Thrill, Buster, and even the 2014 heroics of MadBum.
True but the "heroes" of the 3 in 5 championships, Timmy, Cainer, Buster Posey and Bummy were all "homegrown" with a bit of Hunter Pence thrown into the mix for the last two.
DeleteDoc, curious what your thoughts as a physician are on, "physically large players tend to not age well," especially in light of modern sports conditioning/medicine/therapy/diet? I look at Judge (as well as many other modern players) and see a physical specimen- or even machine, unlike anything I've ever seen in 40+ personal years of watching MLB. I would think that these players should, in theory, last longer but I don't really know anything about that stuff. I guess the game is played harder now and is thus, harder on the body? Is it simply, no matter what, with age, bat speed decreases and taller players suffer more with larger strike zones?
ReplyDeleteThanks for everything you do in the Giants fan community!
No proof except observation here. We know that taller hitters tend to have longer swings just because of the simple laws of physics. As they age, that length tends to increase more than for guys with shorter arms. With pitchers its the repeatability of delivery thing. On the injury front, let's take one example, diving for a ball in the outfield. There is farther to fall and greater impact with the ground for a taller player.
DeleteWillie McCovey was a player with long levers who hit 39 HR's in his age 32 season then had two injury plagued years and looked done. He came back to hit over 20 HR's 4 out of the next 5 seasons including 28 at age 39. That was without the DH too.
ReplyDeleteFrank Howard was 6'7" 255 lbs. He hit 44 HR's in 1970 at age 33, then 26 at age 34 then was basically done.
ReplyDeleteAnd then there's the tragic tale of fearsome Ryan Howard, 6-4, 250lb, with a season ending complete rupture of the Achilles tendon at 31 yo while running to 1st base on a ground out as the Phillies were eliminated from the playoffs, their last appearance in the playoffs until this year when they took their 6th-seed team to the WS, ending a 10-year drought.
ReplyDeleteWhat took Howard 2 years to get back to 150+ games, although hitting 23, 23, and 25 HRs in his 34-36 yo seasons, he was never the same.
Truth be, he had begun his decline at 30 yo never repeating his fearsome four years, 26-29 yo, 198 HRs, and had just agreed to a five-year, $125-million contract extension that turned into an albatross on the Phillies’ franchise.
No need for the reminder that Judge is entering his 31-yo season...
Addendum: Ryan’s catastrophic injury ending 31-yo season climaxed a string of 6 seasons, playing 920 games, averaging 153 games per year, leading the NL twice with HRs (58 & 48) and thrice in RBIs (ranging from 141 to 149), 6 consecutive years in the MVP race, winning once (2006) and finishing 2nd & 3rd in 2 others.
DeleteIn his MVP year, Ryan slashed .313/.425/.659/1.084 winning MLB in HR and RBI
In Judge’s MVP year, he slashed .311/.425/.686/1.111 winning MLB HR and RBI
Both won Rookie of the Year.
A few thoughts about the G's paying Judge's salary:
ReplyDeleteFigure 10,000 additional fans p/gm between season tix & walk-up.
So 800,000 at maybe $70 per after tix, parking, concessions.
That's $56 Million - and he's a road draw, so add that revenue too.
Feel free to fiddle the numbers, but my point is that he adds wins on both sides of the ball, while more than paying for himself.
I am sure you are right. Many ways to look at it, but I am sure money is not the rate limiting step here, or at least it should not be.
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