MLBTR posted their annual arbitration projections for 2023. The reason why this has become a significant event each year is how incredibly accurate their track record is. Whatever the formula is for arbitrators to calculate player value, MLBTR has it figured out and their algorithm works.
The Giants have a whopping 13 arbitration eligible players going into the Hot Stove League. If the Giants were to tender them all contracts the total projected payroll obligation would be $33.3 M, not a trivial amount. In fact, the Giants could pay a very high-priced free agent for 1 season for the combined cost of their arbitration eligible players. Of course, some of those players, like Logan Webb, they want to keep around because his projected salary is far less than his value on the open market. There are some, however, who may not be worth their projected salary and they might not want to tender them a contract, making them free agents.
What we are going to do here is list the arbitration eligible players, their MLBTR salary projections and then my opinion of whether the Giants should offer them a contract. Note: This is not a prediction of whether the Giants will actually offer them a contract or not.
Jarlin Garcia LHP $2.4 M. 2022: 1-4, 3.74, 65 IP, 2.5 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, FIP= 4.27. Although he had some value as a multi-inning middle-inning reliever, he was not reliable in high leverage situations and by FIP was lucky to have as low an ERA as he did. Thomas Szapucki LHP is cut out of a similar cloth but is a lot cheaper. No.
Scott Alexander LHP $1.1 M. 2022: 0-0, 1.04, 17.1 IP, 1 BB, 10 K, FIP= 2.88. Alexander excelled as an Opener, Closer and lefty setup man in just 17 appearances. He had sub-3.00 ERA's in 2020 and 2021 in small samples with the Dodgers. FIP was a bit higher but still sub-3.00. Yes.
John Brebbia RHP $1.9 M. 2022: 6-2, 3.18, 68 IP, 2.4 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, FIP= 3.13. Workhorse in his first full season back from TJ surgery. Opened 11 games with a 0.00 ERA. Could probably Close if he had to but also probably more effective as a setup man and Opener. Yes.
Jakob Junis RHP $3.3 M. 2022: 5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, FIP= 3.65. Effective bulk innings guy who collapsed a bit at the end of the season. Out of options. Sean Hjelle RHP can play for league minimum, has options and can play a similar role with a lot more upside. No.
Austin Slater OF. $2.7 M. 2022: .264/.366/.408, 7 HR, 12 SB, 325 PA. Easy Yes.
J. D. Davis OF. $3.8 M. 2022(Giants): .263/.361/.496, 8 HR, 158 PA. One of the best hitters in MLB after coming over in the Darin Ruf trade. Clear trade win for the Giants as they also got 3 promising pitching prospects. Yes!
Jharel Cotton RHP. 2022(Giants). $1.1 M. 2-0, 6.75, 8 IP, 4 BB, 8 K's. Eh, it's only a couple hundred K above minimum salary but he looked like a replacement pitcher in an extremely SSS. No.
Mike Yastrzemski OF. $5.7 M. 2022: .214/.305/.392, 31 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 5 SB, 558 PA. Not enough bat for a corner OF, but LH hitters who can play CF and hit 17 HR's don't grow on trees. With Aaron Judge manning RF, a straight L-R platoon of YtY/Slater in CF makes a lot of sense. A bit expensive but Yes.
Zack Littell RHP. $900 K. 2022: 3-3, 5.08, 44.1 IP, 2.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9. Minimum Salary but I really don't want to see Zack Littell on a mound wearing a Giants uniform again. I'm guessing Gabe Kapler doesn't either. No.
Logan Webb RHP. $4.8 M. 2022: 15-9, 2.90, 192.1 IP, 2.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 56.6 GB%. No.......just kidding. Obviously Yes!
LaMonte Wade Jr OF. $1.4 M. 2022: .207/.305/.359, 8 HR, 251 PA. Depends on who else they plan to bring in. Frustrating season but injury may have been the major factor. Not a terrible price for a 5'th OF and not a terrible use of the roster spot. Yes.
Tyler Rogers RHP. $1.8 M. 2022: 3-4, 3.57, 75.2 IP, 2.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 55.6 GB%. Found his footing in the second half and Kapler found a new role for him: Multi-inning, middle-inning reliever. Pretty cheap price to pay for a guy who can eat innings like that. Yes.
Thairo Estrada SS. $2.4 M. One of my favorite players on the team and one I think might have a next level he can take his game to. Yes!
Good analysis!
ReplyDeleteWhether cutting some $7-8M will influence decisions on perhaps a $200B, or more, budget is another question.
With talk they're going to eat LaStella's $11.5M, what's another 7?
Or maybe one helps pay for the other?
If Ownership is going to dig DEEP in into their bulging pockets, will they notice the blip? If yes, then do it! And maybe more.
Some of the "overpays" that are about 2 WAR or less (Wade, perhaps YtY and Slater who will be playing in their 30's) could be non-tendered with the intent to resign them at a negotiated salary. If they are happy Giants and believe in the future, SF would probably pay them as much or more than anyone.
A point about the accuracy of MLBTR's estimates is they seem to be used by the teams and agents to set the value as they are impartial estimates - self-fulfilling prophecies.
Isn’t it possible to sign guys before having to tender an arb offer? Ic so I suspect they try to sign maybe Junis Cotton Yaz and Wade for lower contracts than projected.
ReplyDeleteYes, it is possible.
DeleteI think Jakob Junis gets tendered for sure. 3.8M is still really cheap for a 6th starter // swing man. IF he repeats his 2022 season (far from guaranteed) of 1.7 WAR that's 2.2M per WAR which is really good value. Worst case I think he has trade value.
ReplyDelete